BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

ReachTEL polls New England, as the headline numbers from BludgerTrack poll aggregate record little change.

Essential Research was the only national poll of federal voting intention this week, and it’s made all but zero difference to the headline numbers on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland has made a very substantial difference, reversing the 52-48 lead recorded to Labor there and knocking five off their seat projection. Conversely, the shallow pool of data from Western Australia since polling resumed for the year has pushed Labor’s lead there well above what seems plausible, added three to their seat tally with the latest update. I’m sure this will moderate over the coming weeks. The other changes this week are a gain for Labor in Victoria and a loss in South Australia. Exciting developments are looming in the world of BludgerTrack in a week or (more likely) two, so do stay tuned.

In other poll news, today’s Fairfax papers have a ReachTEL poll of New England, which finds 43% of its voters still intending to vote for Barnaby Joyce, compared with 65% at the December 2 by-election. However, Tony Windsor was included as a speculative response option, recording 26.1% support, with Labor on 12.1%. However, opinion is divided as to whether he should remain as Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister, favoured by 45.3%, or resign either from the front bench (26.7%) or from parliament altogether (20.5%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,554 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

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  1. boomy1 says:
    Friday, February 16, 2018 at 2:21 am
    I reckon Armidale is…
    Sorry Don the whole of the New England place seems to be


    Good video, but they have the demographic wrong.

    Those are tradies or similar, not how NE National Party voters like to portray themselves on the whole.

  2. There seems to be a pattern in these US mass shootings?

    Aurora: AR-15
    Orlando: AR-15
    Las Vegas: AR-15
    Sandy Hook: AR-15
    Umpqua CC: AR-15
    Texas Church: AR-15
    San Bernardino: AR-15
    Parkland, Florida: AR-15

  3. Fibre to anywhere will not transmit electricity.
    A node needs electricity to power a machine that takes the signal from the fibre and sends it down the copper.
    This copper can transmit some electricity.
    The light on your modem is powered by the electricity you provide through the electricity plug.
    If you have FTTP and there is a blackout in your area, then you will not get an Internet service even with a battery as the node will not work (unless it has a battery backup itself, which I haven’t seen any evidence of).

    If you have FTTP, a battery in your house will help in case of blackout as the data transmission from the exchange will be powered by generator backup (if it also happens to be in a the blacked out area).

  4. If our so-called pro-women PM had said on day one that Joyce’s behaviour was not on – not just the infidelity but the moving of his mistress around to other ministers and the free rent deal from a businessman mate – they may have felt some sort of solidarity, some justification for their rage. We as cringing witnesses to the debacle may have had our horror assuaged by being reassured such behaviour was not ticketyboo in a parliamentary sense and would not be tolerated.

    But until today, all we got was waffle. And now, we get Mathius Cormann as Deputy PM next week and a reminder that factional politics are again running this country.

    Turnbull should remember that while he can’t get rid of Joyce, women can get rid of him and
    will if he doesn’t stop with just talking the talk.

  5. Morning all. It must be confusing being Barnaby.

    I am confused at why I still have to pay taxes towards his $8000 per week salary, when he is on leave and the Prime Minister does not believe he is capable of even acting as leader for a week. Barnaby seems clear that he still wants his $8 k though, plus whatever expenses he is claiming for leave.

  6. Doi, ‘Foxtel are going to cut off my cable internet to force me on to the NBN and I will get slower internet service.’

    I am NBN ready and the deadline to switch over is July. I am on cable internet (HFC) and the cable would also run Foxtel if I subscribed.

    However, NBNco have told me they will not switch me to the NBN until well into the future. This is because problems have occurred with HFC (which they were going to use) and interference with the Foxtel signal.

    Long story short, I would check with Foxtel, as I doubt they will stop your cable service.

  7. Socrates @ #6 Friday, February 16th, 2018 – 6:58 am

    Morning all. It must be confusing being Barnaby.

    I am confused at why I still have to pay taxes towards his $8000 per week salary, when he is on leave and the Prime Minister does not believe he is capable of even acting as leader for a week. Barnaby seems clear that he still wants his $8 k though, plus whatever expenses he is claiming for leave.

    That sounds like charity to me. So, Vikki Campion must be his charity shag. 😉

  8. Sprocket, I noticed yesterday, some official American was saying they were concentrating their efforts to find the motivation behind the massacre. I thought it odd, but I guess if it wasn’t terrorist related the massacre was ok.

    I would have though it would be better if they were concentrating their efforts keeping idiots and guns apart!

  9. Socrates

    I was interested in the statement that the train travels too fast for anyone to get “a good look” into anyone’s backyard. So all the worries about privacy were just a beat-up.

  10. Stormy Daniels saved a dress she wore during sex with Trump — and plans to test it for his DNA: report

    A new report claims that porn star Stormy Daniels for years has held onto a dress she wore during a sexual encounter with President Donald Trump — and now she plans to get it tested for his DNA.

    Celebrity gossip site The Blast, which first broke news that Daniels planned to break her silence on her affair with Trump, now claims that the adult movie actress is in possession of a “Monica Lewinsky dress” that she will use as proof of her claims of her affair with the president.

  11. Trump supporter Piers Morgan slams president for ‘cowardly’ response to latest school shooting

    Trump supporter Piers Morgan on Thursday slammed President Donald Trump for refusing to do anything about gun violence in the wake of yet another school shooting in the United States.

    Writing in The Daily Mail, Morgan ripped Trump for blaming mental illness — instead of easy access to guns in the United States — for mass shootings in his country.

    Morgan also said that it was insane that suspected shooter Nikolas Cruz had been allowed to buy an AR-15-style rifle at all given his past history of mental problems

  12. “white supremacist paramilitaries” IMO these are the real terrorists.

    ‘The annihilator’: Florida shooting suspect a troubled orphan who owned gun legally, tortured animals
    A picture emerges of the Florida high school shooting suspect, revealing a deeply troubled, violent teenager who trained with white supremacist paramilitaries.

  13. Cat
    Thanks for clearin* up my confusion!

    Yes, certainly overblown. The noise and dust from going under would have been at least as bad. They will not admit it, but local residents probably also have less noise from the trains now than they did before too.

  14. lizzie
    Anyone who lives beside a trainline and has not planted enough trees for a sound and vision barrier is a — typical Australian!

  15. Cat
    So sadly true on the non-responses to what will be merely “massacre of the month” in USA. Saying the problem is mental illness not gun control is still a denial, because they (like we) do not fund mental health enough either.

  16. phylactella

    Anyone who lives beside a trainline and has not planted enough trees for a sound and vision barrier is a — typical Australian!

    Bloody trees, you can’t trust em. Best to chop them down.

  17. Kailani Mana‏

    If Turnbull thinks humiliating Joyce in front of the nation is the bone that will satiate the public he’s kidding himself. No-one cares who they sleep with only who they’re in bed with financially. Transparent Decoy ploy

  18. Laura Tingle‏Verified account @latingle · 16m16 minutes ago

    Thought from afar:The Nats instrumental in 2009 in bringing down @TurnbullMalcolm, even without a vote in the Lib party room. But he is powerless to get them to get rid of their own mortally wounded leader now. They sure occupy a sweet spot in politics. Shame about the rest of us

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. As expected there’s a hell of a lot about Barnaby this morning.

    How’s THIS for a headline from Peter Hartcher! “Malcolm Turnbull has adopted the persona of a 19th century priest”. He scorches Turnbull.
    And Mark Kenny says that Turnbull has punished Joyce as well as he can. Once Barnaby is out of the way I wonder if Turnbull will take the opportunity to renegotiate the secretive Coalition agreement.
    Katharine Murphy reckons that with his bonking ban Turnbull has just thrown petrol over the political bonfire.
    Massola and Gartrell team up to give us this on the Bonking Ban and the reaction from the Nats.
    Paul Kelly says that Turnbull has effectively declared ‘no confidence’ in Barnaby Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister. Google.
    Michael Pascoe boils down Barnaby’s obstinance to the fact that he needs the money.
    Wow! Dennis Shanahan says that the puritan Turnbull has been left looking weak and disordered after another parliamentary train wreck. Google.
    Tony Wright doesn’t hold back in this humorous demolition of Turnbull and Joyce.
    A crew from The Australian writes that Malcolm Turnbull has launched an extraordinary, humiliating assault on Barnaby Joyce, calling on him to ‘consider his own position’. Google.
    Waleed Aly explains the unintended consequences of Barnaby’s affair.
    Philosopher Damon Young says that being embarrassed about Australian politics is a sign we care.
    Michael Koziol puts it to us that Turnbull’s pulpit lecture was not just for Joyce. It was an admonishment of a pattern of behaviour that has inculcated itself in Canberra, where big personalities, power imbalances and late nights playing away from home combine to create an environment conducive to the Joyce predicament.
    Michelle Grattan says that Turnbull’s excoriation of Joyce has changed the game, but then asks how?
    Wendy Squires writes that Turnbull’s rage has come forth hitting us like a limp lettuce leaf.
    Jennifer Hewett with ”No sex please, we’re ministers!” Google.
    Helen Pitt explores the controversial history of the seat of New England.
    Latika Bourke says that Joyce was really pissed off with Turnbull and is now even more determined to hang on.
    Madonna King has some fun at Barnaby’s expense.
    How did ABC Media Watch get it so wrong? Completely ignoring the role of Independent Australia and other independent media outlets in reporting the truth about Barnaby Joyce months before the mainstream media. Dave Donovan details his complaints to the ABC about Monday night’s program as well as the broadcaster’s totally unsatisfactory response.,11202
    Nicole Hasham writes that warring political sides hope a rescue plan for Australia’s longest river system can be salvaged, as the Turnbull Government concedes it alone cannot deliver the historic deal. But there are some in the wings who think otherwise.
    Alan Austin outlines how the Turnbull Government has reached a round 100 in separate instances of rorting the system.–that-didnt-take-long,11203
    The wonderful world of Sydney bikies.
    ‘The anti-Trump’: New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern earns nickname from Vogue.
    The Florida shooter was a troubled boy infatuated by guns, so why not let him into a gunshot and buy an AR-15 assault weapon to play with.
    And the leader of a white nationalist militia says Florida school shooting suspect Nikolas Cruz is a member of his group and participated in paramilitary drills in Tallahassee. Ah! The land of the Free.
    The FBI was warned of a possible threat posed by the teenager accused of a deadly shooting at a US high school as long ago as September, as a possible motive for the massacre has emerged.
    This is a bit close to home!
    Richard Wolffe says we shouldn’t waste our time looking to Trump for leadership after the Florida school shooting.
    Stephen Koukoulas explains that Australia has three problems – chronically low inflation, low GDP and falling house prices.
    According to the Wentworth Group the Senate’s decision this week to block a proposal to reduce the return of water to the river system was the only way to get the Murray-Darling basin plan back on track. Threats by the New South Wales and Victorian governments to now walk away from the Basin plan only serve to underline their failure to put in place the reforms they agreed to in 2012.
    The boss of a healthcare equipment company could face up to 10 years’ jail after the competition regulator launched its first criminal cartel case against an Australian company. This will be interesting to watch. Google.
    Electricity retailers could be allowed to defer a proportion of their emissions reductions obligations under the Turnbull government’s national energy guarantee to give the energy sector time to adjust to the new regime.
    Elizabeth Knight tells us about the bizarre happenings at McGrath Ltd.
    Peter Martin says it’s worth asking why we would continue to protect banks when almost every other industry that overcharges us has been made to stop.
    Yet another NSW council finds itself in trouble.
    The Catholic church has denied discriminating against gay people in its hiring practices, despite rallying to protect its ability to fire staff for contravening church doctrines on same-sex marriage. The Australian Catholic Bishops Conference has joined the Anglican Diocese of Sydney in calling for a religious freedom act to protect religious exemptions to discrimination law in a submission to the Ruddock religious freedom review.
    We can’t go through the week without another Mehajer story.
    John Hewson writes that there is another financial crisis looming and there is nothing the RBA can do about it.
    A study by the Grattan Institute has shown that there a quite different rates of complications from different hospitals. It begs the question of why such data is kept secret.
    A parliamentary committee scrutinising the NSW Government’s decision to relocate the Powerhouse Museum to Parramatta at a potential cost to taxpayers of up to $1.5 billion has given the former NSW premier Mike Baird an ultimatum: either appear before it or be forced. Come on down Mike!
    A recent surge in natural disasters will contribute to household insurance premiums rising by between 3 and 5 per cent over the year ahead, insurance giant Suncorp says.
    Michael Pascoe says that it looks like the foreign exchange market is saying something about Trump’s economic policies that Wall Street is still trying to ignore.
    Raytheon’s Michael Ward mounts a defence of the Australian defence industry.
    An Australian-Chinese Kim Jong-un impersonator is continuing to cause chaos at the Winter Olympics, revealing he was “dragged” away by angry men who then kicked him at an ice hockey match on Wednesday.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and remuneration growth.

    David Pope and leadership arrangements.

    Simon Letch flies the flag.

    Cathy Wilcox gives Barnaby some time out.

    John Shakespeare and Barnaby’s hypocrisy.

    It’s time to roll out this one from Glen Le Lievre again.

    Peter Broelman takes onto the thin ice.

    Paul Zanetti must be looking for a pay rise from News Ltd.

    Here’s Matt Golding’s serve for the day.

    Mark Knight puts Barnaby on the luge.

    Alan Moir has Turnbull right behind Barnaby.

    Sean Leahy rewrites parliamentary job descriptions.

    Leahy is not happy about a State of Origin game being scheduled to be played in Adelaide in 2020.

    This says it all.

    As does this from Alan Moir.

    Doing business in Tasmania.

    Jon Kudelka has put some bromide into the parliamentary tea.
    FDOTM asks what happens after Barnaby Joyce resigns?

  20. sprocket_ Thursday, February 15th, 2018 – 7:15 pm Comment #2507

    Is the TurdBurgler covered by Malcolm’s SexBan ™

    I’m not the most ‘PC’ person on here by any means and I always read your stuff because you are very often right on the money.

    I not about to die in a ditch about it but please think about ditching the ‘TurdBurgler’ bit.

  21. On Tuesday Turnbull stated he had full confidence in Joyce.
    On Wednesday Turnbull stated that he had full confidence in Joyce.
    On Thursday Turnbull stated that he had no confidence in Joyce.

    Why the one eighty?

  22. PeeBee

    If you have FTTP and there is a blackout in your area, then you will not get an Internet service even with a battery as the node will not work (unless it has a battery backup itself, which I haven’t seen any evidence of).

    I’m very much an amateur with this but I understand the Green Node box has it’s own batteries to keep it live but it doesn’t power the final copper connection between the node and your residence (or if it does not for long)?

  23. BK says: Friday, February 16, 2018 at 7:42 am

    Phew! There’s two hours I’ll never get back.


    FANTASTIC WORK , as usual, BK !!!!!!

  24. PeeBee says:
    Friday, February 16, 2018 at 7:00 am
    Some friends have FoxTel over satellite, and Internet over DSL/ copper using TPG or Telstra, generally also multiple mobiles.
    We’re largely on pre-Nbnco Telstra HFC, unlimited quota and 30/ 1 Mbps (generally get 35/ 1.3 Mbps over Wi-Fi), 1 to 3 adults, 1 to 3 teenagers, Netflix HD and all, and will stay on that for as long as possible. Nbnco’s website on ready for service or ready to connect just says “planned”.
    Reputedly Telstra buys enough Nbnco capacity that during peak times it delivers 85% of maximum speed. I also note that a Telstra Nbnco HFC service at 50/ 20 Mbps would be $20 per month more.
    All of us have a mobile and/ or tablet, all computers or printers are on Wi-Fi.
    Some of the neighbors have Telstra Air Wi-Fi going.
    I note 5G isn’t too far off, and presumably neither are nano sat constellations.

  25. BK

    Paul Kelly says that Turnbull has effectively declared ‘no confidence’ in Barnaby Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister.

    Even Paul Kelly gets it sometimes.

  26. Morning all


    Appreciate the time you have expended this morning giving us the clusterf@@k that is the Turnbull/Joyce comedy show

  27. ABC News TV – Michael Rowland says:

    “police say it’s still to early to say if there’s a motive behind Hawi’s shooting”


  28. Socrates @ #19 Friday, February 16th, 2018 – 7:29 am

    So sadly true on the non-responses to what will be merely “massacre of the month” in USA. Saying the problem is mental illness not gun control is still a denial, because they (like we) do not fund mental health enough either.

    Spot on there, Soc. I mean, the kid could walk into Walmart and walk out with a semi-automatic killing machine! That says something about the mental health of the nation.

    I mean, the 2nd Amendment to the American Constitution was written when Remington rifles were the go, not modified semi-automatics with high tech bullets!

  29. bakunin @ #38 Friday, February 16th, 2018 – 8:10 am


    Has it dawned on you that Wayne is someones piss-take of your posting on PB?

    Has it dawned on you that no one takes The Greens’ partisans seriously any more? So, what you are saying is that YOU know that ‘Wayne’ is a pisstake of me on PB? And how do you know that, bakunin? Has ‘Wayne’ been created by The Greens? Do tell. If you know at all, and aren’t just taking the opportunity to have a sleazy sledge at me.

  30. The USA needs a huge awakening, Not only with respect to the NRA and the gun culture, but their broken politics especially with the Republican Party morphing over the years into this extremely corrupted party and giving the world Trump. Of course, the democrats need a big clean out too.

    My sense over the past year is that the USA is at a point where it needs to figure out where it goes from here. The current edifice has to fall in order for a new way to come forth.
    For all the crapola that is being endured due to Trump and Co. Maybe just maybe, something better will come out of the ashes.

  31. I wonder when the penny will drop that the cause of the toxic, middle-aged male entitlement boys club problem in the Coalition is because…they have no diversity in their party room- it is just a group of entitled , wealthy, white middle aged men.
    That is a recipe for dysfunction, poor behaviour and poor performance.

  32. Lizzie

    As I mentioned yesterday, when my family and I were listening to Turnbull, we laughed our heads off. It was so ridiculous. If he had of stated that even if BJoyce had not actually technically breached ministerial code of conduct, the moving around of his staffer on the taxpayer dime etc and deceiving family etc during by election was not the standard to be expected of a DPM.

    Of course, he couldn’t do that cos he probably was fully apprised of every step BJoyce was taking during this whole imbroglio.

    It is a debacle

  33. I really get quite depressed whenever there’s another mass shooting in the US. You just know that absolutely nothing whatsoever is going to happen to try to fix the awful situation, and it will just keep happening again and again and again.

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