Essential Research was the only national poll of federal voting intention this week, and it’s made all but zero difference to the headline numbers on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland has made a very substantial difference, reversing the 52-48 lead recorded to Labor there and knocking five off their seat projection. Conversely, the shallow pool of data from Western Australia since polling resumed for the year has pushed Labor’s lead there well above what seems plausible, added three to their seat tally with the latest update. I’m sure this will moderate over the coming weeks. The other changes this week are a gain for Labor in Victoria and a loss in South Australia. Exciting developments are looming in the world of BludgerTrack in a week or (more likely) two, so do stay tuned.
In other poll news, today’s Fairfax papers have a ReachTEL poll of New England, which finds 43% of its voters still intending to vote for Barnaby Joyce, compared with 65% at the December 2 by-election. However, Tony Windsor was included as a speculative response option, recording 26.1% support, with Labor on 12.1%. However, opinion is divided as to whether he should remain as Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister, favoured by 45.3%, or resign either from the front bench (26.7%) or from parliament altogether (20.5%).
I think I am like a lot of people. I am resigned to the USA gun problem. If they want to shoot themselves so what? If they do not care enough about their kids to put their welfare before guns than why should I care how many are shot.
My focus is keeping their toxic culture out of Australia, to stop the NRA in its attempts to fund and support politicians and parties to import their crazy ideas into Australia. And they are doing that, and it needs exposing.
It is about time one of that endangered species, investigative journalists, exposed this infiltration of our politics by a foreign interest group bent on making this country a more dangerous place.
meher baba @ #2080 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 1:48 pm
Damn! This is not the first time I have found myself agreeing with you 110% 🙂
We don’t just live in a society, nor do we just live in an economy – first and foremost, we live in an environment. And large parts of ours are slowly but surely becoming unlivable.
But since Bob Brown departed, the Australian Greens are an environmental party in name only, and tend to reinforce the notion of many non-Greens that anything that is vaguely ‘environmental’ is probably just another manifestation of their alt-left lunacy, and not to be taken seriously.
zoomster @ #2093 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 2:07 pm
You seem to be deliberately missing the point that such mass shootings account for only a small percentage of gun deaths.
bemused
No, I am not.
“Simon Katich says:
Sunday, February 18, 2018 at 2:16 pm
– – Is George pregnant? – –
Barnaby again?”
Implying that Barnaby is ambidextrous?
– – I might have missed it, but in all the comments about gun control in the US I don’t recall seeing mention of the US Supreme Court. – –
I mentioned it.
And I have had recent discussions with a local barrister about it (not a US expert I should point out) and he reckons SCOTUS could adjust its interpretation of the 2nd at any time and that public pressure shouldnt but would have an impact.
Political effort in response to a massive problem is best spent on advancing proposals that would bring big reductions in the scale of the problem. Advancing token changes like banning certain categories of rifle, but leaving handguns untouched, or extending background checks to more gun purchases, but leaving the volume of guns in the population untouched, involves taking a lot of flak even though your proposal would make a neglible difference. If you are going to take flak in any event, it may as well be in the cause of ideas that would bring about the improvements you want to see in the world. At the very least, advocating the big changes that are needed forces opponents to fight on your turf, and makes your idea more palatable over time.
Trog @12:27PM re that picture of Christensen posing with a gun going after “Greenies”: “Christensen should be drummed out of parliament for that.”
Fully agree. That is outrageous. Just imagine if it was a Green identity about polluters. The mouth frothing rage. Calls not just to kick them out of Parliament but to charge them with terrorism or treason or something. Maybe a rush to draft special legislation which allows detention for 6 months without trial and sentences of up to 25 years.
Drum the imbecile out of Parliament, along with his imbecile boss.
meher baba @ #2094 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 2:09 pm
FWIW, I broadly agree with your conclusions here. However, it’s not an atypical situation for Turnbull to fuck up the micro management of any issue.
One can look at the Republican debate where he turned a popular pro-Republican certainty in to a loss through verbosity and lack of political nous. It goes on through the infamous utegate fiasco where he allegedly had Rudd “on toast and managed to lose his leadership position in the end.
One thing I’ve noticed that the best thing Turnbull’s political opponents is to give him extra time to expand and verbalise. Whenever he goes in to unscripted mutterings we get a bucketful of moralising, articuated nonsense and the emotional claptrap that in the ends offends the people he needs to get on side to succeed as a politician.
Turnbull’s office should have been well in front of the Joyce shenanigans. Everyone knew about it (except malcolm, apparently). You don’t have to be a political genius to understand that a politician like Joyce who is so off the rails and out of touch with community sensitivities about male bastardry and indifference needed to be managed.
What we got was moralising, finger waving and sophistry.
Turnbull is brought all his troubles on himself through cretinous political know how.
‘At the very least, advocating the big changes that are needed forces opponents to fight on your turf, and makes your idea more palatable over time.’
And if you go for small, incremental changes, you might be able to keep a few more people alive whilst waiting for the big changes to be acceptable.
On Gun control. John Howard showed how it is done.
I don’t remember half hearted measures from him on this front.
Says it all for me.
The point is that gun control is not a right wing left wing issue its a human issue.
Howard recognised this. He is not exactly my definition of left wing.
So it must be with the US. First is either get Supreme Court to change ruling or run an amendment though to specify what a militia is.
Nicholas @ #2107 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 2:22 pm
100% of nothing is better than 10% of something, eh Nicholas?
Turnbull assured Parliament that Barnaby had his full support. Has he misled Parliament?
Steve777
I agree GC is an imbecile.I wonder what John Howard would think about that photo.I think even he would condemn it.
guytaur
Australia isn’t the US. Australians wanted guns banned, and Howard was dragged along kicking and screaming to conform with public opinion.
John Reidy
As I said, John, ‘Madness’ (and big money) seems to ‘rule’ there.
steve davis @ #2114 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 2:27 pm
maybe it’s George’s way of saying he’s ready to lead the Nats!
All the ABC had to do when Turnbull complained was to give a right of reply – to let him set out where he thought Alberici’s report was ‘wrong’.
Instead what we get is a further diminution of our supposed democracy along with freedom of speech. If this mob are in much longer we will have hardly any freedoms at all (except of course, their version of religious freedom)
No doubt George Christenson will get to keep his right to bear arms.
Simon Katich @ #2106 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 2:21 pm
Yes, and I notice another mention of the Supreme Court too.
The present interpretation is simply bizarre. It takes a large amount of legal sophistry and denial of the reality that the world has changes since the 18th Century to apply the interpretation they do.
But it is not a unanimous interpretation and it will only take a couple of retirements of conservative judges and their replacement by rational judges to turn this around. The Republicans stole one such appointment by denying Obama’s choice and then appointing Gorsuch.
I wonder if Turnbull will distance his party from that photo.
zoomster
I am going on what appears to be a change in public opinion from the latest shooting.
This one has kids as survivors speaking out. That is a change.
How effective it will be remains to be seen. However the changes to the US have to be what is a militia. That has to change either by the Supreme Court or by changing the definition by amendment to the constitution.
Thats what it takes to change it.
zoomster @ #2115 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 2:28 pm
Actually, that’s pretty unfair to Howard. I admire his stance on gun reform laws and his preparedness to see it through despite all the criticism. Australia is a better place for his policy decisiveness and action on this matter.
Nicholas, as usual, providing the perfect solution for the President at Left-wing Fantasy Camp.
Interesting that Bill Shorten is at the anti pokies Labor launch today.
On 24 now
zoomster @ #2113 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 2:25 pm
Depends on your definition of support and full!
I think the Senate should bring a censure motion against GC for that message about itching to kill Greens.
When Clint Eastwood (aka Dirty Harry)used the phrase it was in the context of ‘just move or give me any excuse and I will kill you’
Have to agree with GG
Zoomster that was unfair to Howard. I guess you can now call me a Howard lover.
But seriously Howard I think was genuine in his dislike of guns. Credit where it is due.
adamgartrell: So Bill Shorten is suddenly using the word “inept” a whole lot an I can’t figure out why
I remember how long it took Howard to respond and how obviously reluctant he was about it. It took a couple of very definite polls to stop him procrastinating.
I don’t deny the outcome was good.
…I did a bit of a check then and recorded history differs from my recollections, so I’ll just settle for the changes introduced after Port Arthur were a Good Thing and Howard was responsible for introducing them.
‘Inept’ will be used by Labor over and over again from now until the election.The damage for Turnbull is already done.
SD
Yep. The attack adverts are already written. Just run the Joyce presser. inept dumb and damaging. I think were the words Joyce used to describe Turnbull.
Turnbull is brought all his troubles on himself through cretinous political know how.
100%
And I also agree that Z is being harsh on Howard. It is absolutely true to say that if Keating had tried it when Howard was LOTO the lying rat would have run the mother of all scare campaigns.
But after Port Arthur I do think he genuinely wanted to make a big bold change and he should forever be applauded for it. It’s about the only thing he ever did that wasn’t self serving or plain destructive, but it was a very very very big thing and I don’t think he had to be dragged at all to it.
Rex Douglas: “No relief for workers as new enterprise agreements drive wages down
By business reporter Stephen Letts
Updated about 2 hours ago
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-18/wage-growth-to-stay-low-as-new-ebas-bite/9454640
Which unions would be involved in those EBA’s ?”
Rex – did you actually read the article? I admit it was badly-written, but it seemed to be indicating that workers were prepared to trade off wage increases for other benefits: employment conditions, allowances, etc.
This is completely reasonable IMO, and may well be driven by the fact that bracket creep over recent years has pushed the salaries of most unionised full-time workers into (when you include the Medicare Levy, which will shortly rise) a tax bracket which they will lose close to 40 cents of each additional salary dollar they gain. If the Government, as it appears to be promising, actually does something to address bracket creep, we might start to see workers pushing more strongly for pay rises.
lizzie @ #2127 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 11:43 am
Yay! If Insiders must use News ltd people at least they should use the sensible ones. Plus PvO has all the insider goss on the Libs and he’s easy on the eye to boot!
zoomster says Sunday, February 18, 2018 at 2:07 pm
Yes it is, but most murders in the USA don’t involve mass shootings. Mass shootings with AR-15 like firearms get the publicity because they are rare events. Handgun deaths are common place in the USA so we rarely hear about them. You are probably in far more danger from someone with a handgun than someone with a rifle.
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_violence_in_the_United_States
From https://www.snopes.com/four-times-more-stabbed-than-rifles-any-kind/
See also:
https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2014/crime-in-the-u.s.-2014/tables/expanded-homicide-data/expanded_homicide_data_table_8_murder_victims_by_weapon_2010-2014.xls
https://www.statista.com/statistics/195325/murder-victims-in-the-us-by-weapon-used/
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-41488081 <—- worth looking at the other charts too
…to get back to my main point: Australia had a series of gun massacres (Hoddle Street, Queens Street) which, in the US, would be basically regarded as normal daily events. In Australia, however, this built the case for gun reform, which meant that, when the tipping point was reached with Port Arthur, action was swift and publicly supported.
America, with more numerous massacres on a more regular basis, doesn’t seem to have the same popular drive for gun control.
Now we get to see Rebecca White.
White reminds me of Jacinda Arden in her delivery
bc
Yes, I know. But, as an incremental change, banning assault rifles would be a good start,and one which would have some chance of success. It would probably save a few lives, too.
Banning handguns (in the US context) would lead to a much bigger stoush, with a smaller chance of success.
I’m going for incremental change, and saving a few lives, rather than accepting a few unnecessary deaths whilst building up support for major changes.
The damage for Turnbull is already done.
Indeed it is. If the public are even half awake they will have seen an already diminished fraud shown up to being an outright joke.
The willful blindness that has seen Trumble get to be PM and hold on as long as he has might well continue, but if so it must be taking an enormous amount of effort to pretend you can’t see him for the buffoon he is. If this doesn’t finish him nothing will.
zoomster
Until those constitutional changes happens an assault weapons ban and background checks is about as far as any legislation in the US can go.
I have no same same with Dems and GOP. I see a canyon between them on this issue.
Yes, I hate to admit it (it’s John Howard we’re talking about) but he did react swiftly to Port Arthur. My recollection must be based on his reaction as Oppo Leader to suggested gun control measures.
There is an important difference between impossible and very difficult.
Major, hotly contested, initially inconceivable amendments to the United States Constitution are possible. They have been achieved before. But only if people are making an argument for them. It is a big (and common) mistake to look at the limitations of people today and the limitations of political institutions today and assume that people and institutions in the future will be similarly lacking in imagination and understanding and wisdom. Laying the foundation now for changes that may not be realised for some decades is worthwhile.
The constitutional impediment to gun buybacks, bans on handguns (not just a few types of rifle), legislating that gun ownership is a privilege rather than a right is the key problem to be overcome.
Along with the socioeconomic problems that make the United States the world’s most violent developed nation.
If Democrats are content to focus on peripheral issues such as assault rifles and background checks, they are deciding to prioritise tokens over substance. It would be better for them to be honest about that and say, “Support these proposals so that the number of annual gun fatalities might fall from 30,000 to 29,800.” Then their supporters could evaluate whether the ambition justifies the effort.
zoomster
“America, with more numerous massacres on a more regular basis, doesn’t seem to have the same popular drive for gun control.”
.
Get with the ‘Seppo’ programme. Remember “Guns don’t kill people, people kill people” or is it ?…….
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/george-christensen-reported-to-police-over-gun-photo-on-social-media
zoomster
Howard was only ‘brave’ in that he stood firm against the small huntin’ shootin’ Nats demographic. The rest of the nation urged him on . So ‘brave’ ? Nah. Did he do the right thing ? Hell yeah.
Rev Rod Bower has made the international news. Good article.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/acts-of-faith/wp/2018/02/16/when-will-they-love-their-kids-more-than-their-guns-an-australian-priest-asks-americans/?utm_term=.a847f36eb74c
GC looks like he is sweating buckets. Lifting a hand gun to eye level in the shade is obviously hard work.