Essential Research was the only national poll of federal voting intention this week, and it’s made all but zero difference to the headline numbers on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland has made a very substantial difference, reversing the 52-48 lead recorded to Labor there and knocking five off their seat projection. Conversely, the shallow pool of data from Western Australia since polling resumed for the year has pushed Labor’s lead there well above what seems plausible, added three to their seat tally with the latest update. I’m sure this will moderate over the coming weeks. The other changes this week are a gain for Labor in Victoria and a loss in South Australia. Exciting developments are looming in the world of BludgerTrack in a week or (more likely) two, so do stay tuned.
In other poll news, today’s Fairfax papers have a ReachTEL poll of New England, which finds 43% of its voters still intending to vote for Barnaby Joyce, compared with 65% at the December 2 by-election. However, Tony Windsor was included as a speculative response option, recording 26.1% support, with Labor on 12.1%. However, opinion is divided as to whether he should remain as Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister, favoured by 45.3%, or resign either from the front bench (26.7%) or from parliament altogether (20.5%).
There was a candidate for POTUS in 2016 who advocated gun law reform in the US. The dtt’s and the Ns of the blogosphere opposed her election.
– – Howard was only ‘brave’ in that he stood firm against the small huntin’ shootin’ Nats demographic. – –
He had Laws and laws and law enforcers on his side too.
Hmm, where was Bernie on gun control?
Re gun control in the US. First of all, the experience with Howard in Australia indicates that the main hope there is for sensible gun policy reform in the US is from measures instigated by the Republicans: preferably by a Republican President. I have believed from the outset of his campaign that Trump could be the guy to do this, and I haven’t given up yet. The great thing about Trump is that he is not beholden to anyone in the mainstream political quagmire: and this includes the NRA. And, moreover, he seems to me to be a man who wants to be loved. Sadly, it’s only going to happen if a series of horrendous massacres on the scale of Sandy Hook and Parkland.
If the Dems ever try seriously to enact gun reform, the inevitable hysterical partisan debate would stymie the move. We’ll have to wait for Trump or some future Republican leader to do the right thing.
Why is a substantial – although minority – group of Americans so obsessed with guns? From the reading I’ve done, there are three main influences:
1) The cultural legacy of the small subsistence farmers of the south-eastern states and some other regions, who used hunting as a means of supplementing the food they produced on their farms. The late and much-missed Joe Bageant is well-worth reading on this subject.
2) An entrenched mistrust of Government, again particularly (but not exclusively) in the South. The prevailing attitude is that governments are pretty much useless at anything other than raising armies to fight wars. So, when it comes to protecting my home and family, I don’t want to have to depend on the police, I want to be able to use my gun to take matters into my own hands. And, if the government decides to try and impinge on my precious freedom, the local officials who try to implement these things had better watch out if they come to my house.
3) Thanks to the clever marketing undertaken over the years by the gun companies, many Americans have bought the idea that carrying their own gun as they go about their daily business makes them safer. Of course it’s a nonsense: they’d only be discernibly safer if they spent their whole day scouring the environment for shooters with their gun cocked in their hand. But, as almost none of them have ever had the opportunity to use a gun against a felon, they don’t appreciate this.
Influences 1) and 2) seem to be gradually fading, but – like a lot of crap merchandising (eg, alternative medicines, pyramid-selling and investment schemes, poker machines, etc.) – 3) seems to have a pretty solid constituency.
Apart from a Republican-instigated reform process, the other hope might be if we ever have a liberal-dominated Supreme Court again and it decided to deem the gun manufacturers to have a significant responsibility for massacres carried out with the more extreme types of assault weapons, with the consequence that the damages payments made these weapons unprofitable for the manufacturers and retailers. I reckon this would be a more effective approach than trying to reinterpret the second amendment.
bc
Clinton was stronger than Sanders.
Bill Maher
23 mins ·
Glad another shitty week in America is over. What did we learn? You can’t arrest someone for being mentally ill. You can’t even impeach them.
George has definitely incited violence.
https://au.news.yahoo.com/qld/a/39210886/christensen-photo-reported-to-qld-police/?cmp=st
George Christensen: episode # 753 of the tale of politicians and other public figures who don’t seem to get that social media postings can be accessed by the entire population.
Simon Katich: “Howard was only ‘brave’ in that he stood firm against the small huntin’ shootin’ Nats demographic. ”
That was an intensely brave thing for him to do. He attended many community meetings in rural areas with nobody else standing alongside him: eg, Labor leader Kim Beazley was nowhere to be seen.
Howard’s achievements in this area were substantial, and have deservedly brought him lasting fame around the world: eg, they have been referred to frequently in the post-Parkland debate in the US over the past few days.
Howard was only ‘brave’ in that he stood firm against the small huntin’ shootin’ Nats demographic. The rest of the nation urged him on . So ‘brave’ ? Nah. Did he do the right thing ? Hell yeah.
Trumble was only ‘gutless’ in that he ran scared against the stupid rootin’ rortin’ Nats leader. The rest of the nation urged him to piss of.
I wonder if any journalist will investigate whether Christensen has received any money from any gun lobby here or overseas?
It is a might too convenient a photo for my liking.
meher baba @ #2155 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 3:11 pm
Why is a substantial – although minority – group of Americans so obsessed with guns? From the reading I’ve done, there are three main influences:
1) The cultural legacy of the small subsistence farmers of the south-eastern states and some other regions, who used hunting as a means of supplementing the food they produced on their farms. The late and much-missed Joe Bageant is well-worth reading on this subject.
2) An entrenched mistrust of Government, again particularly (but not exclusively) in the South. The prevailing attitude is that governments are pretty much useless at anything other than raising armies to fight wars. So, when it comes to protecting my home and family, I don’t want to have to depend on the police, I want to be able to use my gun to take matters into my own hands. And, if the government decides to try and impinge on my precious freedom, the local officials who try to implement these things had better watch out if they come to my house.
3) Thanks to the clever marketing undertaken over the years by the gun companies, many Americans have bought the idea that carrying their own gun as they go about their daily business makes them safer. Of course it’s a nonsense: they’d only be discernibly safer if they spent their whole day scouring the environment for shooters with their gun cocked in their hand. But, as almost none of them have ever had the opportunity to use a gun against a felon, they don’t appreciate this.
Influences 1) and 2) seem to be gradually fading, but – like a lot of crap merchandising (eg, alternative medicines, pyramid-selling and investment schemes, poker machines, etc.) – 3) seems to have a pretty solid constituency.
In the 1990s I worked with an American – highly educated (CSIRO Researcher) but a lay preacher. They brought guns over with them that got caught up in Howard’s gun by-back. They were most unhappy about the whole scenario. I don’t recall what area of the States they were from though.
And MB is correct. Gun control can only happen in the US as it did here. When a strong leader from the right makes it happen.
I suspect the US is too far down the rabbit hole of reality denying partisan lunacy for that to happen.
Not only did Howard front the angry rural masses, but he wore a bullet proof vest to do so.
And a close up of one of the signs in the audience in front of Howard.
How thick is GC?He should just FO to the USA and join their gun lobby.
Yes Briefly
It is all very complex.
Of the three candidate for POTUS that mattered, the worst on guns was my favourite Bernie, the best my least preferred Hillary. Ge willikins. Oooohhh ahhhhhhhhh! the confict.
It is possible to agree and disagree with a candidate you know.
For example while I would never support a Green in the US because of their voting system I quite like much of what Stein had to say, but her anti vax stand made me furious.
“.@TurnbullMalcolm: I can assure you that relations are very strong. There are no issues between the Liberal and National parties at all.”
So it’s all been “officially denied” then.
That is the best thing John Howard did as PM.
Newspoll out this evening – if so what time?
Should be interesting
confessions: “Not only did Howard front the angry rural masses, but he wore a bullet proof vest to do so.”
Wouldn’t you? Anyway, bullet proof vests are far from being 100% effective against the more powerful assault weapons.
steve davis
By a country mile it was. Something Howard can wear with some pride.
John Howard took on an important part of his own constituency to do the right thing on guns. He doesn’t deserve credit for much but he deserved credit on that. Malcolm would have done anything like that. He’d have caved in to the Nats.
George Christensen, the Fat Fuckwit from Mackay, will have some explaining to do when he gets back to the Senate.
As for the bullet proof vest, Howard took advice from his security people. Seems eminently sensible to me.
One thing Howard did well was the gun laws – can’t be denied. bullet proof vest or not he was brave fronting the crowd
George Christensen is not a senator.
He’s not a Senator.
Scout
Is this the case?
That photo basically says:Shoot any green voters that may oppose your agenda.How can this man represent democracy?
No analysis of US gun laws which does not include an analysis of race relations can possibly be complete.
George Christensen, the Fat Fuckwit from Mackay, will have some explaining to do when he gets back to the
SenateHouse.If Newspoll is out in the field Trumble should just write to the Oz and tell them such statistical stuff is bad and probably breaches their editorial guidelines to have it pulled.
Works for the ABC so worth a shot at least…
Who’s going to make him explain Trog? He’s a Nat. Trumble is probably arranging a lunch date and media appearance with him now to let everyone know how close the working relationship is and how carefully his testicles are being looked after.
theheraldsun: ‘B*tch’ joke falls flat at Year of the Dog event in Melbourne: trib.al/WZfoSua pic.twitter.com/Jq8nXeUZfV
https://twitter.com/theheraldsun/status/965084062506475522
dtt @ 3.26…
Nah….it’s not complex. You’re an opponent of constitutional democracy. Instead, you subscribe to Putinocracy- to an authoritarian, anti-democratic, militarised, reactionary and kleptological land-grabbing piracy.
Not a day passes that you do not set out to promote, enable or excuse the disruption of democracy.
Ratsak
Lunch date with George? I know he has had the surgery but you would still want him to be paying.
Trog
You are forgiven. You owned up to the error, unlike many of your protaginists.
https://www.facebook.com/ABCTV/videos/1754201154602522/?t=219
Worth a laff. 🙂
Pretty sure Christensen did that photo intentionally to suck you all in. Bait if you will. Make a mental note of it, use when the election is on. Not much is going come of it between then and now.
Trump has tied all the subjects together now.
realDonaldTrump: Very sad that the FBI missed all of the many signals sent out by the Florida school shooter. This is not acceptable. They are spending too much time trying to prove Russian collusion with the Trump campaign – there is no collusion. Get back to the basics and make us all proud!
ross,
Trumble paid $1.75mil to play with George and his mates. I’m sure he’d be happy to spring for lunch. Whatever it takes to still be PM in the morning.
Ides
newscomauHQ: Christensen reported to police for ‘appalling’ photo bit.ly/2oeMavR pic.twitter.com/7IgtT1sYaR
https://twitter.com/newscomauhq/status/965081660986359809
Nicholas
No, I mean impossible in the context I gave. The Republicans simply control too many state governments and too much of the House for the Democrats to be able to amend the Constitution at any point in the foreseeable future short of the waves I pointed out.
You either need a super majority of states or Congress (and a majority of states) and neither are currently true.
I’d say Christensen did that photo to prove his cred as a potential real maverick Nats leader like Joyce. He’s far too self interested to provide cover for Turnbull , though he might for Barnaby.
Elaug – If anything the reverse is true – the Republicans are really close (two states ? ) to having a super majority of states and could call a constitutional congress if they get there.
Ides: “Pretty sure Christensen did that photo intentionally to suck you all in. Bait if you will. Make a mental note of it, use when the election is on. Not much is going come of it between then and now.”
In a week in which the image of the Nationals has taken a battering, this will further lower their appeal – and consequently that of the Coalition in general – among urban voters.
So, if he did it as a deliberate attempt to stir the greenies, he’s truly the fool that many think he is.
The Nationals are becoming a real liability. A leader in a stronger position than Turnbull might be tempted to pull the pin on the Coalition, dare the Nationals to bring down the government and, at the next election, run Liberal candiates in all seats.
Trump blames the FBI and the Democrats for the bloodshed in Florida….shameless Putinette that he is
Elaugaufein: “I’d say Christensen did that photo to prove his cred as a potential real maverick Nats leader like Joyce. He’s far too self interested to provide cover for Turnbull , though he might for Barnaby.”
Yes, something like this.
My bad – Christensen is not a Senator. Too bad, he will be safe in the HoR.