Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

No change on voting intention from Essential Research, as respondents reject the government’s stance on company tax cuts.

No change this week on Essential Research’s two-party preferred result, which shows Labor maintaining a two-party lead of 54-46, although as usual we’ll have to wait until later today for primary votes. The pollster’s monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull with 39% approval (up one) and 42% disapproval (down three), while Bill Shorten is on 33% approval (also up one) and 46% disapproval (also down three), and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 42-47, down from 42-25 last time. As related by The Guardian, the poll finds 72% supporting company tax cuts being made conditional on pay rises; more disagreeing than agreeing that company tax cuts would lead to higher wages without prompting; most disagreeing that penalty rate cuts would encourage companies to hire more workers. A series of questions on the proposed Adani coal mine found 48% saying it should be assessed on its economic and environmental merits, 22% saying coal mining in the Galilee basin should be banned, and 13% saying all mines should go ahead subject to environmental approvals.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,719 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Fess

    The current partner of BJoyce was confronted by Mrs Joyce in a public place sometime early last year. it didn’t stop her either from continuing the affair with Barnaby, who happens to be the second in charge of this country, She knew full well that he had four young daughters.
    So the risk of her relationship becoming public was very real.
    And don’t forget she was a journo for the Daily Telegraph for 8 years.
    She knows has this rodeo works,

    Nah. I don’t have any issue with her name being exposed in this instance.

  2. Ratsak – though I can understand (in dickhead terms) why the dickhead wants to stay on. He is about to be politically, financially and socially ruined. He’ll be lucky to emerge with the shirt on his back and another couple of mouths to feed. I doubt that even Gina will want to go close to the pong.

  3. This wouldn’t have happened if Barnaby was gay.

    As we discussed yesterday that is a very interesting discussion.

    You are likely completely right. But the unraveling of the Beetrooter shows to my mind that the media are almost always wrong to withhold such information.

    A politician leading a double life is a politician heading for trouble. You can have a political career or a double life. You can’t have both. It won’t end well for the politician or the public they are supposed to serve.

  4. Re the baby. Abortion law reformers tell the story of a high profile catholic dad who was agin abortion when told his 15 yo daughter was pregnant. He asked campaigners how to procure an abortion and retired from the fray

    Barnaby & Vikki were having such a fine old time she mightn’t have known she was pregnant til too late to take action

    Barnaby has forced staffers to terminate before

    Personally I reckon that love child won’t get the stable loving family life we hope for all our kids

  5. This is probably what Joyce is going to sue about.

    This goes directly to the tweets Windsor posted and what an investigative journalist should have investigated to get to the truth and veracity of.

    Its the whole case Bolt was referring to when he said one or the other would be destroyed in being in public life.

    https://truecrimenewsweekly.com/2018/02/13/the-bonking-beetroot-deputy-pm-and-homewrecker-barnaby-joyce-allegedly-traded-sex-for-favours-with-powerful-canberra-lobbyist/

  6. Bowen

    In other developments, the Prime Minister said yesterday he was unaware of the relationship yet today the media reporting is that he was told by Barnaby Joyce in I think it was August that the relationship was over. Now, you can’t be unaware of a relationship and be told it is over at the same time. One of those statements is incorrect.

  7. Vic

    Its the reply afterwards where Windsor commented “…glass”. Im sure that refering to Bishop talking about Labor and glasshouses, however that Porter is up to something. (Not actually talki g about Labor here).

  8. Meanwhile, Bill Shorten is getting on with the job:

    ‘…in his response to yesterday’s Closing The Gap report, Shorten said that a future Labor government would work with members of the Referendum Council to “begin the detailed design work” for their vision of an Indigenous body before a referendum. He hopes that “lived experience” would help dispel scare campaigns over the constitutionally enshrined voice — such as that based on the misconception that the voice would act as “third chamber” of parliament – and added that Labor would proceed with or without the Coalition on the issue.’

    (from The Australian, quoted in Crickey Worm).

  9. Vic:

    I didn’t know she’d been confronted by Barnaby’s wife.

    I’m sure there were journos and other MPs who knew about the affair – didn’t Murphy admit as much?

  10. JohnWren1950: Dear @TurnbullMalcolm, if Campion was not Joyce’s partner, why was he claiming “family reunion” travel entitlements to spend time with her last year? #auspol #Beetrooter

    I don’t think we have any certainty that he claimed family reunion travel expenses for travelling with Ms Campion at this stage do we?

    If that turns out to be the case then Trumble is personally in a very very very large and dark hole.

    But it’s more likely that it was just for the wife and kids. Hypocritical, but not a smoking gun that blows the ‘not his partner’ bullshit out of the water.

  11. hingers: People out there calling Barnaby Joyce a hypocrite, but he did say marriage equality would threaten traditional marriage, and look what’s happened to him.

    oh very good

  12. ratsak

    And for most people it is not about the choice to start a new relationship and or life with someone else. It is when you conduct a double life and attempt to deceive everyone around you.

    a personal example of a good friend to one of my siblings……….

    Turns out it became obvious that the wife was having an affair. Husband confronted her and she denied it. Fair enough. He then did some investigation and found out who the other party was. He then ascertained that the wife of the other party didn’t have a clue about the affair.
    Meanwhile he also ascertained that the reason why his own wife continued to deny the affair, is that her lover was waiting for his wife to get a huge inheritance from her deceased parents. So he didn’t want to leave his own wife until the money came through and he could enjoy getting some of it.

    What was my sibling’s friend to do?

    He decided to knock on the door of this woman and tell her what was going on. Was this the right thing to do? Or should he just have allowed this woman to continue to be deceived until her husband got what he wanted.

  13. Joyce said in his statement that when Campion worked for Canavan she was not his partner and when she was transferred to Drum, Dum was not a minister.

    Pretty well says that he viewed her as his partner when she was transferred to Drum.

    The travel claims, the free rent (was Campion getting free rent before Jan 18, this is not clear?), the jobs, the redundancy ( smells of defacto maternity leave) and the other potential conflicts of interest and possible misuse of public money are the issues.

    There is the hypocritical morality issue of Hoyce’s stance on gay marriage but there is no need to drag his family and current partner and current partners former partner into the story. It turns it into a morality issue and diverts from the real story.

  14. Fess

    It has been reported by the msm.

    And what made it worse was that Mrs Joyce was convinced to attend the mid winter ball with Joyce to ensure the deception continued and the media would be none the wiser.

    Having a relationship is not the issue. It is the deception for personal gain that is. As I have stated above regarding a personal story.

  15. He decided to knock on the door of this woman and tell her what was going on. Was this the right thing to do? Or should he just have allowed this woman to continue to be deceived until her husband got what he wanted.

    That’s what I would’ve done.

    What I wouldn’t have done (and this is where your friend’s story would be analogous to Barnaby’s) is tell everybody else who knew them thus not keeping the matter a private affair just for the parties involved.

  16. Thanks ross, Ctar1 and Dio for the advice last night re dentistry.

    To be fair to the Porsche driving dentist; they have given plenty of notice (not needed for a few years) and offer payment plans. But there goes the mezzanine reno and the trip to Ecuador.

    I will certainly ask what detrimental effects will happen without them. And get a second opinion (but I reckon dentists flock together).

  17. @Ratsak

    I think what Sohar meant is that it wouldn’t have happened because it’s impossible to knock up the guy you’re cheating on your wife with.

  18. Fess

    Barnaby Joyce was engaged in a deception whilst he was supposedly serving as a public servant. He took an oath. it is in the public interest.
    If he doesn’t like it. He should leave this role and go work for a private company.

  19. Why on earth is Barnyard doing the “not my partner then, is my partner now” thing??

    Its meaningless bullshit. She wasn’t you “partner”?? You were still bonking with her!

    This very bad for Barnyard and the Libs as will be setting off Joe Public’s bullshit detector big time.

  20. Ides of March

    Not sure what Christian Porter may be involved with. All I know is that he fancies himself as the next PM of this country

  21. “but he did say marriage equality would threaten traditional marriage, and look what’s happened to him.”

    Ahhh…of course! He is a victim of the Gay Lobby and the brutal imposition of SSM on the country!

    That sorts their problem nicely. 🙂

  22. I think Joyve has to go to stop further damage to Damian Drum, Canavan and Turnbull. Woefully inconsistent. Longer it goes on the worse it gets.

  23. Joyce said in his statement that when Campion worked for Canavan she was not his partner and when she was transferred to Drum, Drum was not a minister.
    Pretty well says that he viewed her as his partner when she was transferred to Drum.

    The travel claims, the free rent (was Campion getting free rent before Jan 18, this is not clear?), the jobs, the redundancy (smells of defacto maternity leave) and the other potential conflicts of interest and possible misuse of public money are the issues.

    There is the hypocritical morality issue of Joyce’s stance on gay marriage but there is no need to drag his family and current partner and current partners former partner into the story. It turns it into a morality issue and diverts from the real story.

  24. When anyone expects The Nationals to govern in the national interest, show some integrity, turn up to work sober, or do any of the other things we expect from politicians, they turn to ‘folksy charm’ to distract from their failure.

    “I don’t want to lose one of the best politicians we’ve had in my lifetime. Are you going to shoot your best horse because he jumped the fence and was found in the neighbour’s paddock?”

  25. ensure the deception continued and the media would be none the wiser.

    The media knew.

    It was the public that was being deceived.

    For that the media stands condemned.

  26. The relationship was no secret to the ‘insiders’. It was just that the ‘insiders’ chose to keep it a secret from the outsiders for purely political reasons.

    Only someone with a terminal case of hubris could expect it to be a secret forever, even with our worse than useless media.

  27. lizzie:

    I’ve no doubt people knew about the affair. I guess what I’m saying is it’s one thing for ‘insider folk’ and Barnaby’s wife to know about it, quite another for it to be splashed across the front page of the papers.

  28. Bishop is trying to turn it into a morality issue saying they have dirt on labor MPs, stupidly Sam took the bait and responded saying he would fling buckets back.

    Zanetti did the same with his cartoon today showing Shorten skiing through a tree unharmed whilst Barnaby ends up on his arse in the snow nowhere near the tree.

    Barnabys private life should remain private, as should that of his estranged wife, family and partner. He’s said they are in love, love is love, it happens.

    The circumstances of his private life is not the issue, whether public funding has been misused, donations of free rent and ministers including the PM have mislead the public is the issue.

  29. Re Barnaby………Of course the media knew but those in charge of those organisations didn’t do or say anything because they have an agenda to keep the LNP in govt.
    If Joyce hangs around he will keep doing damage to the govt. Stay Barnaby,please stay.

  30. Samantha MaidenVerified account@samanthamaiden
    11s11 seconds ago
    New statement from Barnaby Joyce reserving legal rights and new timeline says tried to get back together with wife last April. Baby due this year same month

  31. For all those arguing about privacy take the word of a respected investigative journalist.

    Kate McClymont

    Verified account

    @Kate_McClymont
    Feb 8
    More
    Kate McClymont Retweeted Margot Saville
    I disagree, I think in this instance it was the public interest to report on the @Barnaby_Joyce story and it should have been done months ago. This man is our deputy prime minister.Kate McClymont added,
    Margot Saville

    @MargotSaville
    I’m not a huge fan of #barnabyjoyce but if we start reporting on politicians’ private lives NO-ONE apart from the Christian Right will ever stand for office. Is that what you all want? #auspol
    233 replies 457 retweets 1,212 likes
    Reply 233 Retweet 457 Like 1.2K

    This is a professional who knows her job.
    She has called the media out on this.
    So too did Paul Barry on MediaWatch last night.

    Be in no doubt. The media has failed to do its job.

  32. Plot twist, the ‘senior legal advisers’ were just ‘legal advisers’ who were promoted when they were moved to Barnaby’s office under dubious circumstances…

    Disclaimer. Please don’t sue. The above is not true 😉

  33. All this crap about “its Barnyards private life” is irrelevant.

    Its the jobs, perks and cover up issues that go to Barnyards suitability to be an MP, and others like Turnbull have “questions to answer” as to their involvement.

    The Libs however will WANT the bonking / morality issues to be what people are talking about. That’s something they can argue against, take the moral high ground on, and have an outside chance of spinning to something more neutral.

    If its Lib it lies. They are scum.

  34. I wonder if that leaked letter from the CMW water officer over concerns on the murray-darling was a coincidence or not.

  35. I say again for those who think Joyce’s affair is “private”: news is something that somebody somewhere doesn’t want punished. The rest is just advertising.

    And some advice for any MPs in marital trouble. Own up. early.

    If Joyce had put out a statement last year saying he and his wife were separating and asking for some understanding in what was a diffcult time for his family he might, just might, have got away with it.

    As always it’s the cover-up and attendant lying that will bring him down.

  36. imacca @ #191 Tuesday, February 13th, 2018 – 10:33 am

    All this crap about “its Barnyards private life” is irrelevant.

    Its the jobs, perks and cover up issues that go to Barnyards suitability to be an MP, and others like Turnbull have “questions to answer” as to their involvement.

    The Libs however will WANT the bonking / morality issues to be what people are talking about. That’s something they can argue against, take the moral high ground on, and have an outside chance of spinning to something more neutral.

    If its Lib it lies. They are scum.

    Dead right. This is not about sex. Sex and adultery are just the media hooks to get the public interested, because people glaze over when the press talk about fine ethical distinctions. But there are very real public interest issues here in the use of power and public money.

  37. Samantha MaidenVerified account@samanthamaiden
    4m4 minutes ago
    Essentially argument here is he got back with his wife in April. He sent Vicki Campion to Matt Canavan’s office same month doesn’t explain why. Campion is pregnant by July. Moved to Drum office around same time. According to Oz report stress leave October. Redundo December.

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