Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

No change on voting intention from Essential Research, as respondents reject the government’s stance on company tax cuts.

No change this week on Essential Research’s two-party preferred result, which shows Labor maintaining a two-party lead of 54-46, although as usual we’ll have to wait until later today for primary votes. The pollster’s monthly leadership ratings find Malcolm Turnbull with 39% approval (up one) and 42% disapproval (down three), while Bill Shorten is on 33% approval (also up one) and 46% disapproval (also down three), and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 42-47, down from 42-25 last time. As related by The Guardian, the poll finds 72% supporting company tax cuts being made conditional on pay rises; more disagreeing than agreeing that company tax cuts would lead to higher wages without prompting; most disagreeing that penalty rate cuts would encourage companies to hire more workers. A series of questions on the proposed Adani coal mine found 48% saying it should be assessed on its economic and environmental merits, 22% saying coal mining in the Galilee basin should be banned, and 13% saying all mines should go ahead subject to environmental approvals.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,719 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. julie boyd‏ @jboyded · 45m45 minutes ago

    So @MathiasCormann just called Campion #BarnabyJoyce ‘s ‘partner’ – maybe he didn’t get the memo! What a delicious mess. #auspol

  2. nakarithorpe: Prime Minister @TurnbullMalcolm shortly left after this moment with former PM Kevin Rudd and Opposition Leader Dr Brendan Nelson. He did not stay for the breakfast to remember 10 years on of the National Apology #Apology10 pic.twitter.com/nDB4GrNNpG

  3. Oh, there’s already no parliament next week, as someone pointed out. Man they take a lot of holidays.

    Thursday evening for the resignation seems a certainty then. Avoids acting PM Barnaby, and gives about 10 days for Labor’s laughter to die down before the next question time.

  4. He’s still not missed.

    Andrew Catsaras@AndrewCatsaras
    14h14 hours ago
    Five Prime Ministers attended the Sorry Day at Parliament House. Only one living PM did not attend – the reactionary, recalcitrant, petulant John Winston Howard. He certainly wasn’t missed.

    :large

  5. What’s all this from Barney about “I reserve my legal rights …” That’s what you write at the bottom of a letter of demand when you’ve got your tail between your legs. How hard is it to say: “I have instructed my lawyers to commence legal action forthwith.”

  6. Dan Tehan:

    “Barnaby Joyce will make a statement today covering all the things in the newspapers overnight”

    … in that deadpan voice and with that totally dead look on his face.

  7. So after BJoyce makes his statement today covering everything in the newspapers. When the next headlines occur, is he going to do it all over again? Sam Dastyari on Twitter last night did give Barnaby some good advice. Wtte that it is going to get far worse

  8. So Barnaby sees fit to apologise to his ex wife and daughters via a formal statement to the public. Seriously. Who is advising this idiot!!!

  9. Is not it time for the Letters of Undertaking Turnbull signed with the Nationals and the Abbott Conservative who supported Turnbull in the leadership challenge to be made public?

    This may provide clarity re any compromised position Turnbull may find himself in in regards Joyce

    Then there is Joyce’s defence of Family Trusts ensuring the farm remained in the family name in the event of any dispute

    Should Joyce have referred to his own circumstances instead of deferring to farming families per se?

    Because, no doubt, there will be Property Orders in proceedings at The Family Court of Australia

    What age is Joyce’s youngest child, is she still in education and is there a Child Support assessment against him?

    And then there is spousal maintenance noting the public comment of Mrs Joyce referring to her own career

    Is Mr Joyce also having his legal costs (which are very expensive) donated by benefactors as is his rent?

    As a public figure, these details should be known

  10. Morning all. So caring of the government to give Campion a payout after two months work when Barnaby may be about to leave politics. And free accomodation for the new young family. With this new standard of care for all job seekers and expectant mothers, we will soon recover our reputation as a caring nation. No double standards here at all.

  11. Wouldn’t the normal thing have been for Barny (I’m feeling very friendly towards him right now) to have gone into parliament and made a statement?

  12. “So Barnaby sees fit to apologise to his ex wife and daughters via a formal statement to the public. Seriously. Who is advising this idiot!!!”
    Probably his former media adviser.

  13. Si Ides

    Finally the whole Barnyard attack is starting to make sense.

    Murdoch has decided it is time for Turnbull to go and possibly eluctantly Julie is the go to gal.

    This means removing Barnaby.

    Perhaps we now know who revealed his NZ citizenship.

    OK so we are looking at a new election very soon if the Nats leave the coalition OR we are looking at a JB takeover and an election early next year.

    Any other suggestions?

  14. Fess

    I personally would be very disgusted if my estranged husband apologised to my children in this way. I would see it s a self serving cop out.

    I would expect that by now, he had done everything in his power to speak to his children face to face. Take the time to see them whether they wanted to see him or not. Cos ultimately he will always be their father and with the benefit of time, broken relationships can be repaired.

    And frankly apologising in this way to respond to the media allegations and then mentioning his current partner as part of his apology, reeks of selfishness.

  15. Hang on. Was that a “priority drop” to the Tele, or a text of his public statement in Parly?
    I am now as confused as the Beetroot.

  16. A not brain dead PM (and/or one that knew he hadn’t done anything that could rebound on him), simply would have demanded that any announcements or speeches Beetrooter made on this matter be vetted by him personally before release.

    And he would have thrown this shit back in Barnaby’s face and told him to fuck off and try again.

    Can anyone seriously imagine Howard would have allowed a Nat to threaten his grip on power like this? Yes Howard had the advantage that the Nats then well and truly knew their place and were never led by complete dickheads, but Howard probably would have made sure a dickhead like Barnaby never got to the Nats leadership. Say what you like about Howard (I’ll like say worse), but he knew where the bodies were buried, ruled his fiefdom with an iron fist, and ensured he always had a nice thick coat of plausible deniability around him. Even on Children Overboard he had Reith (already on his way out) take the fall.

    Trumble (as with Abbott and Chopper) is simply proving himself to have not a single clue and is shredding himself for a buffoon who should never have been allowed into a position where the absolutely certain fuck up they were always going to create could fatally wound the PM. Dickheads the lot of em.

  17. Vic:

    If I was NAtalie I wouldn’t be taking Barnaby’s calls – let him have the public humiliation of having to apologise to me via national TV!

  18. and aren’t the “private lives are private” brigade looking clever?

    Shit like this is a pretty solid indicator that someone is not completely above quite a bit of mischief.

    Publish and be damned media you useless pricks. If you can’t put the public’s interest before your cozy insider comforts then fuck off and get a job in the bastard’s offices. At least then you won’t continue to insult our intelligence with self serving crap and delusions of being a 4th estate. Paid shills are far more respectable that you useless turds.

  19. The Guardian is finally tagging onto the Joyce-Macguire links. Only about a week after Twitter got there (Asher Wolf)

  20. Asher_Wolf: Stories about overly close relationships with lobbyists and business ppl and allegations of lack of integrity in appointments and purported sexual harassment should sink a politician. Not the part about a relationship breakdown and a new partnership

    Asher misses the hypocrisy point here. See US for examples of this, Eg Foot tapping GOP anti gay Senator caught in bathroom by police looking for same sex action

  21. Fess

    I guess what I am attempting to convey is that the apology is a hollow one.

    BJoyce was in a relationship with his current partner for well over a year and his ex wife found out about it. She actually confronted the woman in a public place. It didn’t stop him continuing the relationship and getting her pregnant. So as far as I am concerned, his public apology today is a self serving piece of crapola. And if I were his family, I would be even more pissed off than before.

    I repeat. Who is advising BJoyce. Cos he is not helping his cause one little bit.

    Remember this is the second in charge of our country. It truly boggles the mind.

  22. Barnaby Joyce spent more than $10,000 on family reunion travel while having an affair with his former staffer, raising more questions about taxpayer funds being used to support the double life led by the Deputy Prime Minister.

    Claims made under parliamentary entitlements from January to September last year show that more than $10,000 was spent on family travel, which is allowed so that MPs can “balance their work and family responsibilities”.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/australia/10000-for-joyce-family-reunions-ng-b88741578z

  23. Barnaby’s girls were teenagers in high school when they were shifted from Qld to Tamworth to further dad’s career.

    Oldest would have been 15, did it disrupt her schooling?

  24. Vic:

    It’s definitely hollow.

    The best thing he could do is offer to stand aside while the matter of travel claims, employment and so on are investigated fully.

  25. ratsak

    Nah. I already see that in his future. Although, his current family are old enough to make arrangements to see him at their own time and choosing.

  26. ratsak:

    I still believe that public figures are entitled to a right to privacy in their private lives.

    There is no reason why it was necessary for Barnaby’s partner’s identity to be outed in order for all the employment, travel claims and so on to be looked into by the media. Except to titillate and go for cheap headlines.

  27. I have some cooked beetroot in my fridge atm. I don’t like the way they’re looking at me. Perhaps adding a little alcohol will make them more acceptable. 😉

  28. confessions

    Remember the people saying the media is using privacy as an excuse are not referring to the Tele finally breaking the silence or how they did it.

    They are referring to the fact that Windsor’s tweets should have started investigative journalists investigating.

    I totally agree the way the Murdoch press has presented the story is appalling and clickbait journalism

  29. hingers: People out there calling Barnaby Joyce a hypocrite, but he did say marriage equality would threaten traditional marriage, and look what’s happened to him.

  30. Ides of March

    I just looked at Windsor’s twitterfeed. All I could glean was that Windsor may have been responding to watching QT and noticed Christian Porter’s body language and thought it was odd,

  31. Fess

    There is no reason why it was necessary for Barnaby’s partner’s identity to be outed in order for all the employment, travel claims and so on to be looked into by the media.

    That’s a bit unrealistic. She was almost a public figure and appeared with him in his public appearances.

  32. The denial from Joyce is amazingly thin. From public statemens Joyce and Campion have been living together for six months, so since at least September 2017 (prior to the bi-election). So Campion was not his partner while they were living together? And what difference does it make if a taxpayer funded job was found for her in the office of an MP or a minister? It still costs the taxpayer either way!

  33. Another side point from the statement by Nationals MP Damian Drum:

    “There was no new job created, she like the other 40 staffers [who were moved during the citizenship decision] were moved to another office for them to do their work.”

    FFS! 40 staffers in the deputy PMs office? Does every young National get a taxpayer funded job for the life of every conservative government? What do they all do?? Troll social media?

  34. JohnWren1950: Dear @TurnbullMalcolm, if Campion was not Joyce’s partner, why was he claiming “family reunion” travel entitlements to spend time with her last year? #auspol #Beetrooter

  35. The very least.

    He’s an imbecile.

    We’ve seen this story before. Many times.

    Dasher was the last example. Bronny another recent notable example. Slipper of course as well.

    It’s looking very like all of those were mere bagatelles compared to the unraveling in process.

    It isn’t going to blow over. He is a dead man walking. If he had any thinking matter above his collar he’d have recognised last Friday’s expose was the end for him. Whilst it was just in the independents it could be ignored. But once it hit the majors (and especially the Murdochracy) any sentient being should have worked out it was all over Red Rover.

    A weekend resignation from Parliament with an appropriately contrite statement about how he had let his family and his seat down would have seen he go off with a fair bit of dignity intact, ended the incentive for the media to keep digging, and saved his family, party and government an immense amount of grief.

    But once a dickhead, always a dickhead. He’s not going to change the a lifetime of self absorption. And so his destruction will be complete. And more than a few bystanders are going to get badly fragged when he finally detonates.

    Good.

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