YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland

Another better poll result for the government, this time from Queensland, which finds the swing to Labor at an almost-manageable 2%.

Today’s Courier-Mail has a YouGov Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland which gives the Coalition one of its best poll results in some time, crediting them with a 52-48 lead. This represents a two-party swing to Labor of only 2.1% since the 2016 election, although it’s only one point better than in the previous Queensland poll by Galaxy in August last year. The poll also provides further evidence that One Nation has gone off the boil, their primary vote of 9% being three points down on August. The Coalition is up four to 41% (compared with 43.2% at the election), Labor is steady on 32% (30.9% at the election), and the Greens are up three to 10% (8.8% at the election).

A perfectly even split of opinion is recorded on the Adani coal mine, with support and opposition both at 41%. This breaks down to 43-38 against in south-east Queensland, and 45-37 in favour in the rest of the state. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 860.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,108 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  3. Asher Wolf is a Melbourne-based journalist, internaut, information activist and gonzo political theorist. On weekends she flies drones at the park with her three year old son. She was the Pirate Party Australia social media officer for the Griffith 2014 by-election.

  5. Joy ReidVerified account@JoyAnnReid
    7h7 hours ago
    Bottom line as confirmed by @tribelaw – Trump has no constitutional authority to bar the release of the Democratic memo
    – He has already missed the deadline to submit in writing, the White House’s objections to any content in the memo
    – Any House w/holding is purely voluntary

    Does this count as obstruction in some capacity?

  7. I might add that this affair has a lot of parallels with Rudd’s war on Gillard.

    THE story of that, no matter what your opinion on Rudd’s initial removal, was that a former PM and the CPG were actively complicit in a campaign to bring down his successor.

    It is also of a kind of the media just magically turning up at the AWU offices half an hour before plod. Again the story wasn’t about what the media was spinning. The story was the cozy media relationship that saw them aligning with a particular partisan position to mislead the public.

    The former was hinted at, but because they all have each other’s backs it was never exposed. It should have been front page news, all over the TV that a select band of media commentators were taking Rudd’s drops and using these to shape the news, invariably in conjunction with Newspoll being in the field. A clearer story of great public interest was buried for the media’s self interest.

    With the latter it took an outsider to expose, and even then they didn’t really go to town on the media who are at least as complicit as Helmet Head.

    It is blatantly obvious that any human system can tend to self interest and dysfunction. Our media no less than any other, and due to the structural issues of loss of income and natural individual desires to make their own lives comfortable these pressures are currently acute. And yet in a democratic system of government the public’s need for a free, independent and courageous press is vital.

    The abuse of power is facilitated by a press that decides to put their narrow interests ahead of the public’s in order to profit from the abusers of power. We are most definitely living in such a time. The press requires no less oversight and exposure of it’s failings than any other power structure, but self reflection is dangerous for them individually so the cone of silence can be enforced by peer pressure, and any outside criticism is simply dismissed. It simply isn’t nearly good enough.

    There is no simple answer to the problem as restrictions placed by the same powers that the media should be exposing are obviously likely to be self serving by design. Simply doing away with a professional media at all obviously gives virtual free reign to the powerful. The small independent media without an investment in the clique provide some hope, but among the honest dealers in that space is also a plethora of conspiracy theorists and fake news artists.

    The best we can do I suspect is to simply push back against the comfortable bastards and make our disgust at their failings clear as often as possible. Even that obviously fails in the face of the confected bias accusations mainly from the right that have so cowed the ABC and give the lazy bastards the false defence of ‘both sides are bitching so we must be doing it right’.

    But we really do need to demand the media err on the side of exposure. It would be much better if for example some reasonably uncontroversial (to public administration) affairs were routinely exposed in order that Joyce’s (seemingly) less than kosher behaviour was exposed early. At this point it seems pretty clear that the media’s decision to withhold the truth has facilitated behaviour that should never have been allowed to go uncensored. And even if all of the various hints against Joyce do turn out to go no where it would still have been wrong to hide the truth because of the potential for wrong doings to go unexamined because the first part of the evidence trail was never examined.

  8. good article in the SMH on the wealth of the Catholic church and its refusals to pay fair compensation.

    Church could sell off ten billion of its real estate without it affecting so called charity operations, much of this real estate is non- charity related.

    As for fair compensation, Pell set a figure of $50,000 maximum.
    However in the case of the woman wrongly deported the Catholic church negotiated a settlement with the government of $1 million. That was when the church was telling us pedophilia was a minor sin, a lesser one than abortion.

    Since the royal Commission the church has said they now realise that rape hurt children and that it was wrong. At the very least then elevate the compensation over the sin the of deportation, surely pedophilia is not a lesser sin than that.

    Proper compensation of at least $1million would provide restitution and financial security for those lives destroyed by the church, $10 billion would provide for 10,000 victims.

  9. Trog Sorrenson @ #1230 Sunday, February 11th, 2018 – 11:38 pm

    bemused
    “I wonder if I should offer my services out in Batman where I hear there is a bit of a problem with a Green infestation?”
    I reckon a bit of nitrogenous fertiliser would be more the go. Ammonium sulphate is long acting.
    Or a bit of Shorten neutraliser.
    #PBGardening

    What’s this? A Green with a sense of humour? 😮

  10. Also for any that missed it.
    Kate_McClymont: I disagree, I think in this instance it was the public interest to report on the @Barnaby_Joyce story and it should have been done months ago. This man is our deputy prime minister. twitter.com/MargotSaville/…
    MargotSaville: I’m not a huge fan of #barnabyjoyce but if we start reporting on politicians’ private lives NO-ONE apart from the Christian Right will ever stand for office. Is that what you all want? #auspol

  11. Boris @ #1339 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 9:12 am

    Start questioning the merits of Joyce’s new partner’s jobs and it opens it all up again. Public won’t see the nuances just the hypocrisy that the ABC and News will highlight.

    I don’t see a problem with that. If it’s wrong for one side, it’s wrong for both. If any Labor members are guilty of the same thing, then they should face the same consequences.

    However, publicly employing a family member in a legitimate role is quite different to employing your clandestine sex partner in a role that was apparently manufactured solely to prevent the scandal becoming public.

  13. guytaur @ #1347 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 6:20 am

    Asher_Wolf: This is what open secrets create: a system of dirt files and rumours that hold democracy to ransom twitter.com/skynewsaust/st…
    SkyNewsAust: .@AngusTaylorMP: It’s dangerous for @AustralianLabor to start a mudslinging fight over @Barnaby_Joyce.

    MORE: bit.ly/2sndz3T #amagenda pic.twitter.com/IEwNQgxKoJ
    https://twitter.com/skynewsaust/status/962812384833241088

    Mr Taylor has come out with a public declaration of support for Mr Joyce. As political scandals follow a predictable pattern, we can now be quite sure that Mr Joyce’s political life expectancy is now measured in days, if not hours.

    Bye bye Beetroot, and don’t let the door hit your backside on your way out!

  14. P1

    Happy to say I agree with you 100%

    If the family members went through the interview process and were made staffers then they should not be barred from working.

  15. Don’t recall who posted it last night. But suggestion was that Chloe Shorten was working for Bill when they started relationship.
    Everything I have read about them, indicates they met at a function

  16. Socrates
    “I’d be happy if Labor pollutes stopped abusing staff positions too.”

    Agree. It is the only instance, except for family businesses, where it is so wide spread.
    Could not do it in the public service nor in publicly listed companies.
    Always ways around it, wink wink, nudge nudge, merit appointed.
    Jobs for the boys is bad enough without jobs for the sons, daughters and cousins also.

    Funny enough tho it would not have stopped the current jobs for the partner mess as she was not related in any sense.

    Many businesses require that one or both leave when a partnership forms in the workplace, way too many conflicts.

    But it would be hard to set up rules for these circumstances.

  17. Player One @ #1361 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 6:31 am

    Boris @ #1339 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 9:12 am

    However, publicly employing a family member in a legitimate role is quite different to employing your clandestine sex partner in a role that was apparently manufactured solely to prevent the scandal becoming public.

    Having in my past had to “work” with a family member who was employed via the nepotism of someone very powerful within the organisation I could not disagree more. The rules severely restricting employment of family members within the sphere of influence of the senior person doing the employing are there for good reason, and for the protection of anyone who is not a family member and who has to work with said person.

    It’s one of those situations where it works well until there is a problem, and once there is a problem it’s a disaster.

  18. Ted LieuVerified account@tedlieu
    3h3 hours ago
    Security clearances help prevent blackmail. Suppose a foreign power last year told Rob Porter they had photos of his ex-wife after he assaulted her. They want Porter to do XYZ. What would he have done? We don’t know, but no White House official should ever be in that position.

    Unbelievably Jared Kushner still does not have a permanent security clearance. Why isn’t that a national scandal as it would be if he were a senior advisor to a Democrat president?

  19. It’s the Liberals who are claiming ‘nothing to see here’ and threatening Labor over Barnaby. In reality, they are concerned less about Barnaby’s fate than the fate of Malcolm, who seems to be implicated in improperly creating a highly paid position for Barnaby’s lover.

    ‘Wacka’ Williams:

    A senior Nationals senator is unsure if Barnaby Joyce will lead the party to the next federal election following his extra-marital affair.

    Asked if the deputy prime minister was the best person to lead the Nationals to the poll, John Williams told ABC radio on Monday: “He’s certainly been a great leader and I stick by that.”

    But later he told ABC TV: “Let’s see how all of the travel things come out and so on. I just don’t know.”
    “I don’t know if he’s done anything wrong by the law of the parliament or the taxpayers and I can’t judge on that.”

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/senior-nats-senator-backs-joyce-as-leader/news-story/9dde3fb41f6e32a1e18c15ca1f0a4d9b

  20. When the news first broke about Joyce’s affair, I was very much of the opinion that it was a private matter with little reflection on his actual performance as Deputy PM and Agriculture Minister . However, the subsequent revelations of the attempted cover-up absolutely reek of corruption, and take this far beyond a mere personal failing. If it was a Labor or Green MP involved, they would (quite rightly) be raked over hot coals for this.

  21. My post in response to P1, not in italics (apologies to everyone for the formatting error):

    Having in my past had to “work” with a family member who was employed via the nepotism of someone very powerful within the organisation I could not disagree more. The rules severely restricting employment of family members within the sphere of influence of the senior person doing the employing are there for good reason, and for the protection of anyone who is not a family member and who has to work with said person.

    It’s one of those situations where it works well until there is a problem, and once there is a problem it’s a disaster.

  22. Victoria

    Labor can do what it has done with political donations and the National Integrity Commission.

    Recognise the fault and correct it.

    Nothing wrong with that. Introducing good policy at any time is not wrong.

    That works no matter if Labor people have or have not done the wrong thing in the past as recognised now to avoid nepotism.

  23. Briefly may have surveyed his sample group of women, and they came out with sober, well-considered analysis of the Joyce scandal. Good for them!

    I have spoken to some women on the same subject.

    Their universal reaction to Barnaby’s rogering of the help – indeed his rogering of anyone at all – has been what is called “The Medicine Face” at the thought of the bare Barnarby bum arcing up and down and yodelling “COO-EEE!” at the climactic moment.

    This may be beside the point, even a little tasteless of them, but there you have it: my own research reveals that the very thought of getting it sticky with the Bonking Beetroot possesses a Yuck Factor #12 for all the gels with whom I’ve canvassed the matter.

    Lest we forget: politics and privacy aside, women make up half the voting cohort, and their delicate perceptions do count.

    Joyce is a walking joke. He has no future in politics, if these womens’ opinions are anything to go by.

  24. Asher_Wolf: This is what open secrets create: a system of dirt files and rumours that hold democracy to ransom twitter.com/skynewsaust/st…

    So much this. The media’s role is to expose and let the chips fall where they may.

    When they get into the business deciding some stories can be withheld from the public they are complicit in the undermining of democracy.

  26. victoria:

    But suggestion was that Chloe Shorten was working for Bill when they started relationship.

    A employer and employee engaging in a consensual relationship while both were single – which eventually led to marriage and children – strikes me as being a pretty different situation to an extra-marital affair followed by shuffling the knocked-up mistress to another department to cover it up.

  27. However, the subsequent revelations of the attempted cover-up absolutely reek of corruption, and take this far beyond a mere personal failing.

    Indeed. However I am still very uncomfortable with the reporting of the affair in the first place.

  28. There is a world of difference in a family member working in a politicians electoral office as a staffer, and a new mistress being in a Ministerial Office and then shunted to a conveniently higher paying office in a fellow Ministerial Office in order to try and cover up the problems created.

    I’m pretty sure most people can easily discern that difference.

  29. P1
    “I don’t see a problem with that. If it’s wrong for one side, it’s wrong for both. If any Labor members are guilty of the same thing, then they should face the same consequences.”

    Where do you set the boundaries though, I can see good argument for employing family as staff members for loyalty and family reasons to help with the isolation of parliament.

    Yet, there is large elements of hypocrisy with their pay, conditions and allowances being justified as being to cope with this, yet they still want more through the staff jobs.

  30. Vic:

    It seems the committee can release it anyway, even without the president’s approval.

    Rule X, Clause 11 of the House’s Standing Rules prescribes the process by which HPSCI may publicly disclose information in its possession. Clause 11(g)(1) provides that “[t]he select committee may disclose publicly any information in its possession after a determination by the select committee that the public interest would be served by such disclosure.” And the Committee unanimously voted on Monday–21 to zero–that the memo should be released because public disclosure would be served by such disclosure.

    To be sure, Clause 11(g)(2)(A) further provides that if any of that information “has been submitted to [HPSCI] by the executive branch,” if it “has been classified under established security procedures,” and if “the executive branch requests [that it] be kept secret,” HPSCI must notify the President of its decision to disclose the information, and may not disclose it for at least five days after such notification. If, during that five-day period–which expires Saturday, February 10–the President, “personally in writing,” notifies HPSCI that he objects to the disclosure, provides his reasons therefor, “and certifies that the threat to the national interest of the United States posed by the disclosure is of such gravity that it outweighs any public interest in the disclosure,” then HPSCI may not disclose the classified information without first submitting the question to the full House.

    President Trump, however, has not made any notification “personally in writing.” Nor has his Counsel, Doug McGahn (let alone the President personally), even represented that “the threat to the national interest of the United States posed by the disclosure is of such gravity that it outweighs any public interest in the disclosure.” Accordingly, unless the President makes such a certification by February 10–personally in writing–HPSCI will be free under House rules to publicly disclose the Democratic memo, without making any redactions.

    https://www.justsecurity.org/52081/hpsci-trump-release-minority-memo/

  31. Confession:

    Oh, I agree. And it says something about the Daily Telegraph that they leapt all over this, but have rarely had any interest in covering Joyce’s gross mismanagement of the Agriculture portfolio or many of the other reprehensible government decisions he has played a major part in.

  32. Bushfire:

    Workers rights groups have called for a nation-wide day off, after millions of Australians were involuntarily subjected to the mental image of the member for New England having intercourse.

    Marianne Nolan from Workers Health Australia said Wednesday was a harrowing day for many Australians, and that they needed time to recover. “There’s been a lot of nausea, a lot of small vomits in the mouth. We need to look after each other today”.

    She the timing of the imagery only made things worse. “For most of us, it was over a bowl of cereal that the image of the Deputy Prime Minister naked and sexually active entered our minds. It was totally unexpected and quite gruesome.

    http://www.theshovel.com.au/2018/02/08/calls-for-national-sick-day-after-nation-forced-to-imagine-barnaby-joyce-having-sex/

    😆

  33. ratsak
    “So much this. The media’s role is to expose and let the chips fall where they may.
    When they get into the business deciding some stories can be withheld from the public they are complicit in the undermining of democracy.”

    Where do you set the boundaries again though. Who makes the moral judgements on reporting the story.

  35. Asher:

    Plus he was Water Minister when the water thefts on the MDB was exposed yet had no repercussions as a result of that. Just promoted and moved on .

  36. The west Australian has a picture of Joyce and woman said to be Ms Campion said to have been taken in Queensland in December.

    The woman said to be Ms Campion ( you cannot see her face) is wearing a coloured skirt and white top, smartly dressed for a coffee perhaps.

    Joyce is wearing a long sleeved brown grandad collar tee shirt type of thing, saggy baggy dark shorts and thongs ( I refuse to call them flip flops).

    Looks like a well matched couple. Not.

    I don’t read Bolt but The West carries his column and and I looked his “questions for Turnbull”. Even given his animosity to the Prime Minister he validly raises the points real journalists should be asking Turnbull today about the employment of Ms Campion.

  37. Could be that Malcolm already knows all about Barnaby, but needs to keep him on side for numbers.

    @SerkanTheWriter · 29m29 minutes ago

    Hi @TurnbullMalcolm – you might want to have a word with @Barnaby_Joyce & ask about his 2014 sexual affair with a recently divorced well-known female lobbyist. What political favours were traded for sexual favours? Any comment to make? @TrueCrimeWeekly is publishing story #auspol

  38. Boris

    The imperative is to report without fear or favour.

    Leave the moral judgements to the readers to decide when they vote.

    Its not for journalists to be the moral arbiters of Australia.

    The only limits should be those journalist rules in the MEAA.

    Apply to all.
    None of these privacy arguments were run when television cameras were being stuck in the bathroom window of Craig Thomson.

    A bit late for media to be crying privacy now to cover up their lack of reporting .

  41. However I am still very uncomfortable with the reporting of the affair in the first place.

    and therefore by default you are comfortable with the potential corruption uncovered as a result of the initial reporting going unexamined, unexposed, and unpunished.

  42. Joyce can’t survive this. The longer it drags on, the bigger the disgrace for the government. Not in terms of the relationship, but the stories surrounding his partner’s employment and Joyce’s dealings with the bloke whose place he’s living at rent-free. If he doesn’t go, the PM’s and Canavan’s offices will inevitably be dragged into it given the ministerial code and the dodgy looking placement of Joyce’s partner.

    It’s spiraling badly out of control as it is. The only political option is for the government to try to cauterize it and make Joyce leave.

  43. grimace @ #1371 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 9:43 am

    Having in my past had to “work” with a family member who was employed via the nepotism of someone very powerful within the organisation I could not disagree more. The rules severely restricting employment of family members within the sphere of influence of the senior person doing the employing are there for good reason, and for the protection of anyone who is not a family member and who has to work with said person.

    This situation can arise whether or not the problem employee is related to the boss or not. I once worked for a company where one of my staff was best friends with the CEO … as I only found out later, and very much to my cost. If the person had been a family member of the CEO, at least I would have known I was required to put up with their appalling behaviour 🙁

    It is hidden relationships that cause problems, not public ones.

    It’s one of those situations where it works well until there is a problem, and once there is a problem it’s a disaster.

    So? This is a known risk taken by anyone who employs a family member, as many businesses do. If it is permitted (it usually is) and they choose to do it (which many do) then there is no reason not to do so, provided it is done publicly and they are willing to accept the downside.

  44. and therefore by default you are comfortable with the potential corruption uncovered as a result of the initial reporting going unexamined, unexposed, and unpunished.

    No, I am uncomfortable with the way in which it has been uncovered. Not that any potential corruption has been uncovered.

  45. P1

    See the US for reasons why employing family members can be fraught. Note Bill Clinton employed Hillary on health care and that cost him politically. Also her as it turned out.

  46. guytaur @ #1388 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 10:00 am

    Boris

    The imperative is to report without fear or favour.

    Leave the moral judgements to the readers to decide when they vote.

    Its not for journalists to be the moral arbiters of Australia.

    The only limits should be those journalist rules in the MEAA.

    Apply to all.
    None of these privacy arguments were run when television cameras were being stuck in the bathroom window of Craig Thomson.

    A bit late for media to be crying privacy now to cover up their lack of reporting .

    Exactly.

  47. 1400 MW of Coal outages outages for about 11 hours last night. Reliable and dispatchable? Yeah right.

    “AEMO has received advice of coal supply reliabiltiy issues at two (loy Yang A and Loy Yang B) Victorian power stations, 2000 hrs 11/02/18
    In order to conserve coal there will be a reduction in the order of 1400 MW across the two stations.
    Repairs at the coal mine (that services both LYA and LYB) are expected to take approximately 6 hours.”

  48. Confessions @ #1394 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 10:08 am

    and therefore by default you are comfortable with the potential corruption uncovered as a result of the initial reporting going unexamined, unexposed, and unpunished.

    No, I am uncomfortable with the way in which it has been uncovered. Not that any potential corruption has been uncovered.

    Impossible to uncover the corruption without revealing the affair.

  49. Victoria @ #1365 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 9:40 am

    Don’t recall who posted it last night. But suggestion was that Chloe Shorten was working for Bill when they started relationship.
    Everything I have read about them, indicates they met at a function

    It was Greensborough Growler. And he was wrong.

    Chloe was a Social Worker, or something similar. Still is. They met in Melbourne where she was presenting a paper she had written, iirc. It was all on Annabel Crabbe’s show.

  50. Confessions @ #1394 Monday, February 12th, 2018 – 10:08 am

    No, I am uncomfortable with the way in which it has been uncovered. Not that any potential corruption has been uncovered.

    I am more uncomfortable with the fact that a major corruption scandal was almost not uncovered because too many so-called journalists refused to even bother investigating a story that was right under their noses.

    When you are in the public eye, you should expect scrutiny. If you have something to hide, you should expect it to be exposed. As Katherine Murphy highlighted with her decision not to investigating the Joyce family because she knew them personally, and therefore didn’t want do delve into stuff she found distasteful, there is far too much “clubbiness” amongst some parts of the Canberra Press Galley.

    It is clearly both unhealthy and unprofessional.

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