Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

After taking a step forward in ReachTEL, the government takes a step back in the year’s second Essential poll.

The second poll of the year from the now-fortnightly Essential Research series has Labor’s lead widening from 53-47 to 54-46 — the primary votes will be with us later today.

Among the poll’s other findings are that 73% believe the cost of living has increased over the past year, and 75% believe energy prices have done so. Fifty-one per cent believe the cost of living has increased more quickly than their income, 28% that it has stayed even, and only 14% that their income has increased more. Eighty-three per cent thought the government should do more to make health insurance affordable, and 60% believed health insurance wasn’t worth the premiums.

Thirty-two per cent of respondents thought the political and economic system needed to be fundamentally changed, 48% favoured refinement, and only 8% registered satisfaction with the status quo. Questions on which party was best to handle various issues evoked the usual responses, with the Liberals doing better on managing the economy and terrorism, and Labor doing better on climate change and industrial relations (and, less predictably, housing affordability).

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1028.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,702 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Fess

    The WH are desperate and Nunes is doing their bidding. Which in effect is aiding in their demise. Hence why I think Nunes has become what you may call a witness for the prosecution

  3. dtt

    While I do not want to peddle scandal and idle gossip, you should perhaps be aware that there are allegations that the FBI (or some members of it) are up to their ears in drug smuggling etc.

    I doubt that it’s news that in any policing / investigating organisation in the world of any size will have some corrupt members and some internal unit trying to weed them out.

    In one the size of the FBI, management that claimed they didn’t have some like problems would be suspect indeed.

  5. Ctari

    I fully agree with that comment. It does require tough management (including here with our federal Police) where corruption can get out of hand.

    One comment I have on the whole US system (and ours in part) is the secret nature of a lot of legal processes.

    These grand juries for example seem a very star chamber sort of affair. Where is the transparency?

  6. Player
    I think the FBI has lost a lot of credibility. McCabe has gone under a cloud, Comey gone under a cloud, Rubenstein will I tjhink have to go.

    I read somewhere that the FBI people took risks on the political front because they were so certain Clinton would win. Made sense at the time!

  7. The US is a constitutional democracy, meaning the rule of law applies from the top down. It is the working of the legal process that is causing so much trouble for Putin’s ensign, the traitor, Donald Trump.

    Meanwhile, in Russia the authoritarian model is in full operation. Power is concentrated in the hands of the military; in the clandestine, extra-legal centre and domestic dissidents are variously purged, imprisoned or murdered.

    Externally, the authoritarian, kleptocratic elite in Russia pursue policies of national aggrandisement, to the detriment of their neighbours and the social democracies.

  9. Central Australian MLA Scott McConnell will not recontest his seat for Labor at the next Northern Territory election in 2020.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-03/scott-mcconnell-will-not-recontest-stuart-seat-for-labor/9393112

    The bush backbencher has previously voiced frustration over his government’s handling of policy to remote areas.

    In November 2017, Mr McConnell quit his role as Assistant Minister for Remote Housing, Assistant Minister for Arts Trails and Assistant Minister for Indigenous Tourism Participation, amid frustrations over the delivery of promises to remote areas and concerns that assistant minister positions were no more than hollow titles.

    Mr McConnell had repeatedly raised concerns with ministers over the pace of the Government’s $1.1 billion remote housing program and the lack of progress on the Government’s promise to give local Aboriginal communities more control.

    He also spoke publicly about concerns over the resourcing of police stations in remote central Australian communities.

  12. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/christian-lobby-head-lyle-shelton-to-enter-politics-tipped-to-join-cory-bernardi-20180202-p4yzc3.html

    Mr Shelton is expected to confirm within 24 hours his intention to join the Australian Conservatives, which Senator Bernadi founded after quitting the Liberal Party.

    Mr Shelton will be replaced as managing director of the ACL by his chief-of-staff, Martyn Iles.

    :::
    Mr Iles said…..

    “With God’s help and by God’s grace, we can continue to accomplish great things for his kingdom in Australia.”

  14. John Hewson:

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/shorten-touched-on-key-problem-with-politics–but-he-only-did-it-to-score-a-few-more-points-20180201-h0rv0d.html

    But as long as our politicians are still preselected the way they are, leading to Parliament being dominated by apparatchiks, focused more on political point-scoring and blame-shifting, not governing; as long as our ministers are mostly inexperienced amateurs, few of whom have ever had a “real job”; as long as campaign funding is so opaque and corruptible; as long as lobbying, too, is so opaque; as long as question time and other parliamentary processes remain a “circus”; and as long as those in government continue to “kick issues down the road” rather than meeting challenges and solving problems, that “corrosive sentiment” will persist and fester.

    The tragedy is that the two major parties know what needs to be done, and how to do it, to genuinely clean up our politics, and while they are prepared to talk about it, even to make “promises” to fix it, neither has ever done so, basically because each believes that they can exploit the present system more effectively than the other.

    Disturbingly, they persist with this, even though it is clear that electorates are progressively abandoning them – one in three voted for minorities and independents at the last federal election, and the drift is continuing. Globally, the quest is increasingly for the “outsider”, or “messiah”, or some “extreme” minority (left or right), rather than a major party.

  15. Victoria:

    You could be right re Nunes but to me he’s just a partisan ideological Trump apologist, not smart enough to be a double agent as it were.

  16. Trey GowdyVerified account@TGowdySC
    8h8 hours ago
    As I have said repeatedly, I also remain 100 percent confident in Special Counsel Robert Mueller. The contents of this memo do not – in any way – discredit his investigation.

    Jeez when even the Tea Baggers fail to see anything of significance in the Nunes memo you know your goose is truly cooked!

  17. Putin has achieved more in 1 year than all the rest of the Russian leaders have achieved in the 70 or so years after WW2 to destabilise the pillars of what America is built upon Security, FBI, Intelligence, NATO …….all smoking ruins ……. he has America/Western Alliances in Total Chaos for next to no effort – a bank of hackers and manipulation of social medias to turn American voters and voting processes …. all without a bullet being fired …

    A GOP full of spineless morons, with their thumbs up their bums, stupifiedly looking on as their country is destroyed day by day by a narcissistic racketeering buffoon who could give two f***cks about the US rather than his own image ….

    America’s political chaos under Trump is a return on Putin’s investment

    Washington spies believe Vladimir Putin harbours ‘longstanding desire to undermine the US-led liberal democratic order’ and is no doubt enjoying his front row seat as turmoil continues on a daily basis ….

  18. Oh, and look, it’s Pegasus again, being holier than thou and seeking to dredge up every negative story about Labor that she can. Of course, she can do this until the cows come home because The Greens will never form a majority government and have to be judged on THEIR performance.

    What an easy life it is being a Green. All care, no responsibility.

  19. the Australian Conservatives, which Senator Bernadi founded

    What is it about the letter ‘r’?

    90% of writers lose it from Bernardi. Presumably pronounce it ‘Benaahdi’.
    Then there’s ‘brought’ which has morphed into ‘bought’.
    Year is pronounced ‘yeee’.

  20. Bill KristolVerified account@BillKristol
    3h3 hours ago
    Was anything more evidently foolish than talking up the Nunes memo before the fact? Is anything more embarrassing now, after the fact, than heralding the memo as key evidence vindicating Trump? Could a realization of this help break the fever of GOP Trump rationalization?

    Apparently there are more memos to come, so the embarrassment isn’t over yet!

  22. Confessions @ #2365 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 1:25 pm

    Trey GowdyVerified account@TGowdySC
    8h8 hours ago
    As I have said repeatedly, I also remain 100 percent confident in Special Counsel Robert Mueller. The contents of this memo do not – in any way – discredit his investigation.

    Jeez when even the Tea Baggers fail to see anything of significance in the Nunes memo you know your goose is truly cooked!

    And Devin Nunes is one hell of a sycophantic goose.

    I bet he thought he could ride Trump’s coat-tails to power and glory. Maybe even be the next Republican nominee for POTUS after Trump. And all he has to do is destroy the crumbling edifice of American democracy to get there! Then rise like a phoenix from it’s ashes. Too easy!

    Because real governing and leading is hard work. The proof of that pudding IS in the fact that democracy is a delicate flower that can so easily be crushed under the heel of an Authoritarian. Not in the fact that you can be that Authoritarian, or aid and abet them.

  26. Peg

    I can’t help it. Ears and eyes trained like a gundog for mistakes, but only grumble when it’s the ABC (remember when they used to set the standard for pronunciation?) or published material.

  28. Because real governing and leading is hard work

    Yep just look at Australia where the coalition have no clue. Also no ideas, no policies that will advance the interests of the country. Just culture war games and faffing about at the fringes.

  29. CTar1 says: Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 1:37 pm

    p1

    Let’s just hope they get him before he gets them.

    Tell us what you think!

    *****************************************************

    As Bill Palmer says – The gloves are off now ….

    Donald Trump and Devin Nunes. You’ve purposely leaked classified information about an ongoing FBI investigation, simply for the purpose of dishonestly trying to smear the FBI, in the feeble hope that it’ll take the public’s attention off your own crimes in the Trump-Russia scandal.

    What Trump and Nunes really have to worry about are the leaks that will come from within the U.S. intel community. The FBI and other agencies are sitting on a metric ton of dirt about Trump with regard to his Russia scandal and, presumably, his entire lifetime of financial crimes. They’ve been keeping all of this information to themselves, out of a matter of policy, and the fear of tainting the ongoing Trump-Russia investigation. But the gloves are off now. Trump and Nunes just leaked classified intel about the investigation. So now the FBI has an excuse to leak that’ll make Trump look the worst, while simply holding back on the specific details that are still sensitive to the investigation.

  30. MSM Watchdog‏ @MSMWatchdog2013 · 10h10 hours ago

    Little known fact about the #ABC Board. @TurnbullMalcolm installed an unqualified Board member courtesy of @MineralsCouncil She wasn’t even on the short list.

    Michelle Guthrie, Chair of the Minerals Council.

  32. lizzie

    Then there’s ‘brought’ which has morphed into ‘bought’.

    ]

    This one really silly.

    Two different things – ‘bring’ or ‘buy’

  34. Went over and had a look at Nuttertruckers. Yes washed afterwards.

    Interestingly they are in full “sir may i get that zip for you while i’m down here” mode over Trump and his speech. Its quite sad actually. Some of these people are obviously not idiots, but they act like it. Pretty much desperate whistling past the graveyard behavior i think. 🙂

    If and when Trump gets the flick the level of indignation there will be a sight to behold. Interesting to watch a bunch that with anything, on any topic, that doesn’t fit their world view, it is rationalized out as fake, conspiracy, bloody leftie conspiracy…………whatever.

    These are people into serious confirmation bias and the typical RWNJ projection that’s so common at the moment. They think all this is leading to “leftie heads exploding” right left and center. When its mainly the RWNJobbies who are doing the indignation thing. Ok, greens doing a lot of impotent chatter but who cares about that? 🙂

  37. Peg

    You mean there’s no one left who can pull the youngsters up? No one who has any idea what a decent newsreader sounds like?

    OK. As you were.

  38. Pegasus @ #2363 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 1:20 pm

    John Hewson:

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/shorten-touched-on-key-problem-with-politics–but-he-only-did-it-to-score-a-few-more-points-20180201-h0rv0d.html

    But as long as our politicians are still preselected the way they are, leading to Parliament being dominated by apparatchiks, focused more on political point-scoring and blame-shifting, not governing; as long as our ministers are mostly inexperienced amateurs, few of whom have ever had a “real job”; as long as campaign funding is so opaque and corruptible; as long as lobbying, too, is so opaque; as long as question time and other parliamentary processes remain a “circus”; and as long as those in government continue to “kick issues down the road” rather than meeting challenges and solving problems, that “corrosive sentiment” will persist and fester.

    The tragedy is that the two major parties know what needs to be done, and how to do it, to genuinely clean up our politics, and while they are prepared to talk about it, even to make “promises” to fix it, neither has ever done so, basically because each believes that they can exploit the present system more effectively than the other.

    Disturbingly, they persist with this, even though it is clear that electorates are progressively abandoning them – one in three voted for minorities and independents at the last federal election, and the drift is continuing. Globally, the quest is increasingly for the “outsider”, or “messiah”, or some “extreme” minority (left or right), rather than a major party.

    This is a load of garbage from Hewson. Normally I respect his opinion, but this is just going with a false premise, as in the one The Greens and other minor parties like to push to their own advantage, otherwise why would Pegasus have leaped on it? That is, that the major parties know what to do but don’t do it.

    May I just remind everyone of a little recent history?

    * Labor had a humane regional solution for the boat-borne asylum seeker problem. The Greens and the Liberals, in concert, deep-sixed it. Both cried crocodile tears over the plight of the drowned asylum seekers but didn’t lift a finger to end the drownings.

    * Labor responded to Climate Change with determination and a comprehensive suite of policies. The Coalition and The Greens, between them, determined to wreck that program. The Greens because they could see a political advantage in doing their holier-than-thou schtick to peel off electors who wanted the government to do more. The Coalition did it to win government. Both being, simply, cynical political opportunists.

    * Labor knew that we needed a full fibre NBN. They knew what to do, and tried to do it in government. I think I remember The Greens wittering on about the asbestos in the Telstra pits. Along with the Coalition. And which turned out to be not as big a problem in the end as everyone made it out to be. Still, the campaign about it gummed up the works enough to hobble the continuing rollout of the NBN by Labor.

    * Labor knew what needed to be done in the Public Health space and with our Public Hospitals. While they were in government.

    * Labor tried to, and pretty much succeeded in, getting an outcome in Tasmania with respect to the Forestry Wars. The Greens were left, sitting up a tree.

    * Labor knew what needed to be done when they were in government in the Education space, via Gonski.

    * Labor knew what needed to be done in the Marine Environment space in government. And did it.

    I could go on.

    Suffice to say, Pegasus would never have the good grace to point this out. Instead preferring to go the smear of Labor.

  39. billie says:
    Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 11:30 am
    Don asked isn’t the median income of $770 a week too low for Kooyong.

    Remember that the people who live in Kooyong are
    – older so might be on SMSF pensions, which taxable income $0
    – business owners so they would live on the expense accounts
    – high income with the opportunity to negatively gear property

    From casual observation the median Kooyong resident has more than $40,000 per annum disposable income

    Thanks Billie, but it still seems low, especially when you compare it to the census data, which gives a much higher figure.

  44. Hola Bludgers

    I see that ESJ is still sprouting that Latin maxim apropos of nothing. What a clever dick.

    That said, there are partial truths in what he/she/it says, but beware bludgers, ‘it’s a trap’.

    I think Batman is likely gone for all money. The combination of Feaney, Green momentum and Adani virtue signalling will likely see to that.

    Where ESJ is quite wrong and frankly disengenuous is in the proscription of reforming some grand progressive alliance on the ashes of the Labor party as we know it.

    Firstly, it is clear that The Greens have now formed suburban enclaves. The 12% of the general population senate vote Bob Brown achieved in 2010 has now flatlined at under 10% and is increasingly concentrated in half a dozen suburbs in Melbourne and Sydney. There is simply no evidence that it is the tip of some emerging populist movement of broader appeal.

    Moreover, even after the RGR Leadershit, the Eddie Obeid years, the collapse of the Peter Beattie monolith, the Labor brand has proven to be remarkably resilient. As a confessed Labor tragic, only a few years ago I dispaired that our brand was so damaged that we would not see even the promise of a Labor Governent federally, or in NSW or Qld, for over 20 years. Yet here we are – a second term majority labor governemnt in Qld, well in the hunt in NSW (even with Luke Foley as leader) and consistently ahead of the LNP on 2PP federally. Moreover our primary vote has stabilised and indeed recovered to be in the mid 30% range. In short, over 75% of the potential pool of ‘progressive’ voters have had a good look at The Greens, and even with the odour of Labor’s on fuck ups, have said ‘No way. Not ever’ to a switch to some left wing alternative.

    The political reality is that at least 75% of Green voters will always give their preference vote to labor, with the remainder comprising TealGreens who will come home to daddy’s party after virtue signalling to their friends with a green primary vote.

    My message to Labor, especially to ‘the left’ and certain panic merchants in the Victorian right – is to stick to our knitting. Focus on the things that matter to our true base and the contestable middle (i.e. those that don’t always vote labor but prefer us on key issues such as health, education and infrastructure). I reckon that if Labor is consistent and innovative in its message it can pick up another 10-15% on top of its 35% base AS PRIMARY VOTES by pitching contemporary policies in areas of our traditional strength & that’s before the Greens preferences are voted.

    I do believe that the future of progressive politics is -as ESJ would say – going to be built on coalitions of common interests. Where I differ is that this will clearly not be one based on the left wing which is anathema to most Australians but in the centre, as pitched to by Labor giants like Whitlam, Wran, Hawke and Keating.

    Stay the course comrades. Stay the course.

  46. Pegasus (Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 1:20 pm) quotes John Hewson’s article which says, in part:

    few of whom have ever had a “real job”

    I hear/read this apparent insult quite often. Can anyone explain or define what a “real job” actually is? Trade union researcher, ministerial staffer, brickie, manager, teacher, doctor, houseperson, parent?

    It’s almost equal to “never done a day’s work in their life” – something I aspired to, but failed to achieve. (Insert big grin here)

  48. Devin Nunes tells Fox News he ‘saw abuses’ in surveillance applications he never actually read

    House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes (R-CA) on Friday told Fox News that he “didn’t want to have to” release his controversial memo based on “abuses” he alleges he gleaned from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act court applications. Later in the segment, however, he admitted that he himself never read the FISA documents.

    When the host asked him if he’d read the FISA renewal application, however, he admitted that he hadn’t.

    “The agreement we made with the Department of Justice was to create a reading room and allow one member and two investigators to review the documents,” he said. “I thought the best person on our committee will be the chairman of the Oversight Committee, Trey Gowdy, because he had a long career as a federal prosecutor. They would come back with their notes and brief the rest of the committee members

    AND what does Gowdy, who DID read the applications, say ?????

    — but he also made sure to emphasize that special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation is entirely legitimate.

    “As I have said repeatedly, I also remain 100 percent confident in Special Counsel Robert Mueller,” Gowdy wrote on Twitter. “The contents of this memo do not — in any way — discredit his investigation.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/02/devin-nunes-tells-fox-news-saw-abuses-surveillance-applications-never-actually-read/

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