Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

After taking a step forward in ReachTEL, the government takes a step back in the year’s second Essential poll.

The second poll of the year from the now-fortnightly Essential Research series has Labor’s lead widening from 53-47 to 54-46 — the primary votes will be with us later today.

Among the poll’s other findings are that 73% believe the cost of living has increased over the past year, and 75% believe energy prices have done so. Fifty-one per cent believe the cost of living has increased more quickly than their income, 28% that it has stayed even, and only 14% that their income has increased more. Eighty-three per cent thought the government should do more to make health insurance affordable, and 60% believed health insurance wasn’t worth the premiums.

Thirty-two per cent of respondents thought the political and economic system needed to be fundamentally changed, 48% favoured refinement, and only 8% registered satisfaction with the status quo. Questions on which party was best to handle various issues evoked the usual responses, with the Liberals doing better on managing the economy and terrorism, and Labor doing better on climate change and industrial relations (and, less predictably, housing affordability).

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1028.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,702 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 49 of 55
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  3. Socrates @ #2242 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 6:43 am

    Morning all. Between Batman and this decision, Turnbull is pretty much guaranteed to remain in power from now until the 2019 election.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-02/lucy-gichuhi-independent-senator-joins-liberal-party/9392018?WT.ac=statenews_sa

    I doubt it. If Ms Gichuhi didn’t realise how much she had in common with the Liberals until she was actually in Parliament dealing with them, then she’ll be much more trouble than it’s worth for the Liberals, given they’ve already had a 95% guarantee on her vote in the Senate vs the 100% guarantee on her vote is now. One more RWNJ complete with a sense of extreme individualism is the last thing Brian Trumble needs.

  5. ag0044 @ #2395 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 2:15 pm

    Pegasus (Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 1:20 pm) quotes John Hewson’s article which says, in part:

    few of whom have ever had a “real job”

    I hear/read this apparent insult quite often. Can anyone explain or define what a “real job” actually is? Trade union researcher, ministerial staffer, brickie, manager, teacher, doctor, houseperson, parent?

    It’s almost equal to “never done a day’s work in their life” – something I aspired to, but failed to achieve.

    Good luck, Agoo, getting Pegasus to reply in any sensible way to your question. That is not what she has been tasked to do by The Greens, here on PB. Her job description is to smear Labor, and then when we reply with detailed argument, to mock us.

  9. C@t,

    I was not asking Pegasus specifically for a definition – just pointing out where the quote came from.

    The phrase is a disparaging insult (tautology?). “Everyone knows” what it means … or do they?

    Would you care to have a go at defining it? (I’ve tried, but failed miserably.)

  10. DTT – you disparaged the Grand Juries in the US, but do you understand how they work?

    I’m not sure of the number but people from all walks of life are on the juries for a period of time.

    The prosecutor presents the evidence they have for seeking an indictment.

    The jurors have the right to ask questions, get clarification of point

  11. phRD @ Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 2:16 pm Comment #2397

    Devin Nunes tells Fox News he ‘saw abuses’ in surveillance applications he never actually read

    That’d be standard Trump / Abbott and the like.

    Nunes is a dunce that even Trump’s thicker people like Kelly Ann Conway can manipulate and he keeps coming back for more.

  14. C@tmomma says: Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 2:22 pm

    Victoria @ #2376 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 1:40 pm

    C@t

    And Trey Gowdy is another one who is retiring cos he has too, and somehow now being all agreeable.

    I think Trey found his conscience. Or became so scared of what the inside of a federal penitentiary looks like that he slammed the brakes on wrt his promotion of Trump and his gang of thieves.

    *****************************************************

    It was said the other day- TeaPain

    Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    Have you noticed that many GOP with advanced security clearances are “retirin’?” Tea Pain don’t believe in coincidences, do you?

    They are the ones who have seen the so far undisclosed *documents* …… and are either bailing out to avoid jail time or to go down with the Trumptanic

  17. …points etc.

    This is done in secret because if not enough evidence is provided the prosecution either drops it or goes away to gather more. This is much more democratic than having a single lawyer make the decision and if there isn’t enough evidence then there is no prejudice against the defendant.

  20. I well remember the times I was told “to get a job”, when I was employed, during my involvement in the anti-freeway protests out my way, as we were sprayed with water cannons by the workers.

  21. Player
    People often are oblivious to real democracy requirements when it comes to their opponents.

    Much as you hate it Trump was ELECTED, as was Putin, Turnbull, May, Macron and those various fascists in Eastern Europe.

    The norms of democracy (often breached as you say in Russia) is that candidates for election are not hounded, arrested, blocked etc and that the process is fair and reasonable and critically is SEEN to be fair and reasonable.

    The FBI had no business spying on Trump unless
    1. They did it on everyone including Hillary, Kaine and pence AND Obama
    2. They has some evidence of a threat to National security. Fact is since there is no war with Russia, the FBI has NO right to consider there is a right to spy. They are NOT the elected government. What if the President elect (or a contestant) were actually in some highly electorally significant negotiations that the FBI had no right to know about. The exception might ONLY be if the POTUS along witjh the National Security Council advised the FBI that there was imminent risk of war or some equivalent seroious risk to the USA (maybe trade deals or diplomatic issues or perhaps threat to allies). Whatever it has to be very bloody serious. A minor voluntary campaign worker going to Russia just does not cut it.

    There is no excuse EVER for an arm of government to take it on themselves who they will spy upon. That is a matter for the ELECTED representatives alone. The moment you breach this then you democracy is defunct in all but name. So if Obama (or maybe someone in senior Congress) gave the OK to spy on Trump OK. If not it is very, very, very suss.

    Does Asio have the right to spy on Shorten because they think he might have links to Russia. What about it they decide that his opposition to Adani risks relationships with India. Doe that give them the right to spy. Let us say George Brandis and Downer go to UK and meet with steele or someone like it with a doubtful dossier claiming that Shorten or some of the ALP left eg Albo were secretly in deals to cancel Adani and threaten our trade relation and political dealings with India.

    By you reasoning that is OK

  23. ag0044 @ #2408 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 2:33 pm

    C@t,

    I was not asking Pegasus specifically for a definition – just pointing out where the quote came from.

    The phrase is a disparaging insult (tautology?). “Everyone knows” what it means … or do they?

    Would you care to have a go at defining it? (I’ve tried, but failed miserably.)

    I think ‘everyone knows’ is just a generalisation that is used to bolster an argument that is trying to be made. So you say that, as if it is a given and ‘everyone knows’ it to be true.

  24. Jenauthor,

    The next time someone refers to RDN as “the black wiggle” or similar, I would hope you would raise the same objection, to demonsrate your lack of bias in such situations.

  28. billie @ #2320 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 8:30 am

    Don asked isn’t the median income of $770 a week too low for Kooyong.

    Remember that the people who live in Kooyong are
    – older so might be on SMSF pensions, which taxable income $0
    – business owners so they would live on the expense accounts
    – high income with the opportunity to negatively gear property

    From casual observation the median Kooyong resident has more than $40,000 per annum disposable income

    Median income and taxable income are completely separate concepts and I’m quite sure that the ABS would not make the rookie mistake of conflating the two in its official statistics.

  32. Well that wasn’t the best Real Time. I did love Frum’s line that the sole purpose of the Nunes memo is so Hannity can hold up and wave around a piece of paper with words on it.

    And really that’s all it is.

  36. Confessions @ #2431 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 2:59 pm

    Well that wasn’t the best Real Time. I did love Frum’s line that the sole purpose of the Nunes memo is so Hannity can hold up and wave around a piece of paper with words on it.

    And really that’s all it is.

    ‘Fess, I didn’t know it was a live broadcast, so I just caught the end of it. Um, would you mind putting up a link to the ep when one comes up, pretty please with sugar on top? 🙂

  38. Player

    By my reasoning you are Ma’arn. You are certainly a paid operative for the energy sector (or closely connected to one who is)

    It is always the coward’s way out of a complex debate to call the other a “loon”

    Well the sentiment is returned but if I challenged your “arguments” on such a flimsy basis I would be rightly ashamed of myself.

  39. RDN doesn’t actually have any* capacity to interfere in the Bhathl matter. It’s not a pre-selection issue , its an “ethics” complaint seeking to have her disendorsed or her membership stripped and is decided by an appropriate Victorian Greens administrative committee.

    Pretty much every party has different preselection and review processes and you shouldn’t assume they work like yours do.

    Also if Bhathal was particularly divisive she wouldn’t have won’t pre-selection which is decided by an OPV ballot of all Greens members in the electorate and that’s the beginning and end of it.

    * Yada Yada, soft power of respected members etc.

  41. frednk @ #2245 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 9:51 am


    Pegasus (AnonBlock)
    Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 9:19 am
    Comment #2230
    ..

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/west-gate-tunnel-benefits-deliberately-distorted-to-support-road-says-expert-20170813-gxv9gd.html

    So the greens don’t want the trucks off the west gate. Fair enough; the Green party’s political hide.

    It is not a matter of getting them off the Westgate, it is a matter of getting trucks off the suburban streets on their way to the docks. Most of the trucks crossing the Westgate are headed for the South-Eastern suburbs. The residents in the Seddon / Footscray area are really going to love the Greens over this. I hope they tell their friends in Batman.

  43. I’m not sure who it was above but the false equivance of “if you investigate Trump you must investigate all the others” is a preposterous notion.

    If they were investigating Trump then they were doing so on evidence that caused suspicion. That has absolutely NOTHING to do with others running for election and was commenced prior to the election.

  44. daretotread @ #2437 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 3:06 pm

    You are certainly a paid operative for the energy sector (or closely connected to one who is)

    The reason I call you a loon is precisely because you post nonsense like the statement above. If I recall correctly, this is the third time you have made this ridiculous assertion, one the basis of no evidence whatsoever.

    And you wonder why I don’t take you seriously?

  45. Player one

    I recall when Trump won and I suggested that he and his cronies had been involved in treasonous behaviour, dtt asked if I was someone from the CIA. Lol!!!

  46. Stephen Jones MP‏Verified account
    @StephenJonesMP

    Caught out: the National Party represent some of the poorest electorates but use their Ministries to funnel money to wealthy Liberal electorates

    I did wonder why the Nationals weren’t right up front in demanding funds… wasn’t it Warren Truss’ idea inthe first place?


  48. bemused (Block)
    Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 3:10 pm
    Comment #2440

    frednk @ #2245 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 9:51 am
    ….

    It is not a matter of getting them off the Westgate, it is a matter of getting trucks off the suburban streets on their way to the docks. Most of the trucks crossing the Westgate are headed for the South-Eastern suburbs. The residents in the Seddon / Footscray area are really going to love the Greens over this. I hope they tell their friends in Batman.

    That is a bonus.

    But what you say is true it will take trucks of Williamstown road as well. The Westgate is over full; you don’t need 2030 projection to know that; something needs to be done.

    Obviously taking the dock traffic from the west off the bridge will help; it is a major part of the traffic. At the moment a large portion of the truck traffic goes over the west gate; and divides, some wanders around the docks on the north side, some goes over Bolte bridge and ends up pretty much where the new road ends. It is a neat solution that will be supported by anyone that is gone across the Westgate in the morning. The green seem to be basing their justification for their opposition (it’s development they were always going to oppose) on someone upset with the 2030 car trip projections. What has cars got to do with the ports; it is about trucks stupid.

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