Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

After taking a step forward in ReachTEL, the government takes a step back in the year’s second Essential poll.

The second poll of the year from the now-fortnightly Essential Research series has Labor’s lead widening from 53-47 to 54-46 — the primary votes will be with us later today.

Among the poll’s other findings are that 73% believe the cost of living has increased over the past year, and 75% believe energy prices have done so. Fifty-one per cent believe the cost of living has increased more quickly than their income, 28% that it has stayed even, and only 14% that their income has increased more. Eighty-three per cent thought the government should do more to make health insurance affordable, and 60% believed health insurance wasn’t worth the premiums.

Thirty-two per cent of respondents thought the political and economic system needed to be fundamentally changed, 48% favoured refinement, and only 8% registered satisfaction with the status quo. Questions on which party was best to handle various issues evoked the usual responses, with the Liberals doing better on managing the economy and terrorism, and Labor doing better on climate change and industrial relations (and, less predictably, housing affordability).

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1028.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,702 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. dtt

    The FBI had no business spying on Trump unless

    They ‘spy’ on all the others candidates too!

    The FBI don’t have a right, they have a duty no doubt wrapped in all sorts of words to protect the US and it’s constitution.

    If they believe that any person, candidate or not, are engaged in undermining US law they put their reasons to a Judge and run their existing evidence past him/her seeking a warrant to to undertake surveillance of the person/persons.

    They sort of need to be just a little specific when doing this – ‘All candidates’ is very unlikely to ‘fly’.

  5. Chris Spencer@ChrisSpencerFL
    3h3 hours ago
    Overheard at the bar: “I’ll take a Carter Page. You know, a White Russian.”

    😆

  6. Victoria says: Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 3:30 pm
    Player one

    I recall when Trump won and I suggested that he and his cronies had been involved in treasonous behaviour, dtt asked if I was someone from the CIA. Lol!!!

    **********************************************************

    The CIA has three candidates, two men and Victoria , for one assassin position.
    On the final day of testing, the CIA proctor leads the first male candidate to a large steel door and hands him a gun. “We must know that you will follow our instructions, regardless of the circumstances,” he explains. “Inside this room, you will find your wife sitting in a chair. Take this gun and kill her.” The man is horrified, “You can’t be serious! I could never shoot my wife!” “Well,” says the proctor, “you’re definitely not the right man for this job then.” The CIA proctor leads the second male candidate to another large steel door and hands him a gun. “We must know that you will follow instructions, no matter what the circumstances,” the proctor explains. “Inside this room, you will find your wife sitting in a chair. Take this gun and kill her.” The second man steadies himself, takes the gun and enters the room. After three quiet minutes, the man exits the room with tears in his eyes. “I wanted to do it I just couldn’t pull the trigger and shoot my wife. I guess I’m not the right man for the job.” Finally, the CIA proctor leads Victoria to yet another large steel door and hands her a gun. “We must be sure that you will follow instructions, no matter what the circumstances. Inside this room, you will find your husband sitting in a chair. Take this gun and kill him.” Victoria takes the gun, enters the room, and before the door even closes completely behind her, she’s fired off six shots. Then all hell breaks loose behind the door cursing, screaming, crashing. Suddenly, all goes quiet. The door opens slowly, Victoria exits, and wiping the sweat from her brow, she says, “Did you guys know the gun was loaded with blanks? I had to beat the son of a bitch to death with the chair!”

  7. Barney in Cherating @ #2331 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 11:53 am

    Darn @ #2283 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 7:41 am

    Those who have castigated Katharine Murphy for her article this morning perhaps should read her conclusion before having her hung drawn and quartered. To me, all she seems to be saying is that Turnbull is starting the year with some positives that he didn’t have last year while Shorten is starting it with some challenges that he wasn’t facing last year – which is basically true.

    But that does not mean she believes that Turnbull will now conquer all and march on to a famous victory. Consider her conclusion below, especially the first paragraph.

    …

    Darn,

    Unless she starts fully cheering for Labor some here will consider her biased. 🙂

    Some her are just bonkers and filled with hate.
    It is not pretty.

  10. E,

    Rebecca put up a post on the Batman by-election thread which clearly articulates what my understanding is of the situation locally.

    Would be a good idea if you cross-posted your comment to that
    thread.

  11. Bonham

    The new Labor candidate, Ged Kearney, is a very high-profile name as President of the ACTU since 2010, and has been seeking a political career for some time. The ACTU is not quite as influential as it was in the Bob Hawke days (Hawke’s approval as leader of the ACTU was being routinely polled for years before he entered parliament) but the post has still produced some heavy hitters since, such as former Labor leader Simon Crean and former Minister Martin Ferguson (the Batman MHR prior to Feeney).

    If Marn Ferson was the MP before Feeney, no wonder the seat has moved to the Greens 😮

    http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2018/02/batman-unique-by-election.html?spref=tw

  12. jenauthor,

    Sure. Then the next time RDN’s name is spelt incorrectly, which it often is, (eg Natali) I hope you make the same admonishments.

  14. What has cars got to do with the ports; it is about trucks stupid.

    I was looking at the graphics and noticed that Transurban are going to build an off-ramp into Wurundjeri Way through the old West Melbourne rail yards. That basically kills the E-Gate project that was announced back in 2014. Apparently Yarra Labor noticed this too…

    http://www.yarralabornews.org/2017/09/17/proposed-westgate-tunnel-ew-link-resurrection/

    http://www.majorprojects.vic.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/8670-MPV-EOI-E-Gate-A4-Public-Information-Brochure.pdf

    Way to go ALP – trading off housing for 10,000 people close to the city, docklands and transport for an off-ramp.

  17. Ctari

    Are you sure about that?
    Al the more reason for the FBI to take their dury seriously and be certaoin that they have a very sound prima facie case to warrant spying..

    The possibilities of doing this for blackmail, for undercutting an electoral opponent revealing affairs etc is mid boggling.

    Sure if they are following up on crimes eg links with drugs or pedophilia or corruption, but I would have thought that matters of a POLITICAL nature were off limits.

    After all foreign relations ie if alliance with Russia or Israel or Australia or Japan etc are fundamentally the province of the ELECTED representatives and absolutely NO PLACE for spying by a non elected body.

    Let us say for example some Democrat had very close relations with the International Labour Organisation or some group looking to impose global restrictions on money transfers or wages suppression, would it be OK for the FBI to spy on them? These negotiations or deals might harm some US businesses. Does that make it OK?

    Sorry but I think that argument just does not hold water. To spy on Trump’s campaign they should have had strong evidence that there was money in exchange for favours, or leaking of classified documents, or involvement in smuggling etc. Just because we do not like Russians does not cut it.

    In fact the VERY FACT that Trump made relations with Russia an ELECTION issue should have warned the FBI. It became a POLITICAL issue and any involvement of the FBI was implicitly undermining Democracy.

    Put it this way, the FBI may have had a case for spying, but they should have bent over backwards to make sure their case was strong before seeking court approval and should never, never have concealed stuff.That is just common sense.

  18. 12 Dec. 2017: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/west-gate-tunnel-cost-blows-out-to-67-billion-tunnels–to-be-twice-as-long-20171211-h02wbj.html

    Motorists face hefty CityLink toll rises for an extra decade under a deal with Transurban that Premier Daniel Andrews will attempt to ram through Parliament.

    Mr Andrews on Tuesday revealed a massive and unexpected blowout in the cost of the West Gate Tunnel, with projected costs escalating to $6.7 billion, up from last year’s estimated $5.5 billion.

    With Labor moving to stop the road becoming an issue at next year’s state election, Transurban locked in a major victory for its shareholders: the guarantee of a big government payment if funding is blocked by the Parliament.

    The Premier announced on Tuesday the government had signed contracts, with work starting in January.

    Mr Andrews rejected comparisons to the East West Link. The West Gate Tunnel will be built regardless of any parliamentary vote.

  19. Player One @ #2443 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 2:20 pm

    daretotread @ #2437 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 3:06 pm

    You are certainly a paid operative for the energy sector (or closely connected to one who is)

    The reason I call you a loon is precisely because you post nonsense like the statement above. If I recall correctly, this is the third time you have made this ridiculous assertion, one the basis of no evidence whatsoever.

    And you wonder why I don’t take you seriously?

    Player

    You are mistaking me for someone else.

    I have never before commented on your energy stuff – except once to mildly support you.

    Please do not make FALSE allegations. I willingly accept comments on what I do say but get very annoyed when I am deliberately misrepresented.

    I actually do apologise for the comment about being a paid rep of the energy sector -it was an irritated response to being called a loon by you. I will say however that you are a tiresome champion of gas and hydro at the expense of renewables, which is a little odd. I basically tune out on it all but you seem unwilling to compromise at all.

  20. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-13/melbournes-west-gate-tunnel-cooked-up-with-transurban/9251712

    Victorians have a right to cast a critical eye over Premier Daniel Andrews’ $6.7 billion West Gate Tunnel, which delivers a decade more of tolls for Transurban on the lucrative CityLink.

    How the State Government got to the point of signing a contract — dreamt up by Transurban not state planners — deserves scrutiny and makes Labor vulnerable to the accusation of sweetheart deals with private business.

    The $6.7 billion contract signed this week is a far cry from Labor’s 2014 election pitch.

    At the same time, it was railing against the Napthine Government’s East West Link, arguing it was a waste of money and did not stack up — something critics of this new project argue.

    It also argued the Coalition were not transparent about the project and that it had no mandate to sign contracts for East West. Sound familiar?

    Labor ultimately dumped the project, costing taxpayers more than $1 billion, despite assurances it would not cost a cent.

    Less than six months into its term of government, Labor received an “unsolicited” proposal from Transurban to build a much grander road project to the west to ease congestion.

  21. Send in the clowns – Opinion by Bill Palmer

    Donald Trump is a lot of things, all of them negative. He’s mentally deranged. His decisions are driven by paranoid delusions. He’s at least partway down the road toward senility. But not a bona fide idiot. He’s not devious enough to figure out how to get out of this mess, but he’s just devious enough to figure out how to have survived this long. So now that his back is up against the wall, why is he betting his remaining chips on a memo written by an idiot about another idiot?

    The Trump-Russia scandal has been popularly dubbed “Stupid Watergate” because so many of the people involved have proven themselves to be inept. But if you were to pick two names who represent the biggest idiots in this entire idiotic scandal, there’s a good chance you’d come up with Devin Nunes and Carter Page. If these two were fictional characters, they’d be rejected for being too unrealistic.

    Why on earth is Trump betting on these two weaklings? In short, it’s all that he has left. The competent and upstanding people he’s appointed, like Rod Rosenstein and Christopher Wray, have predictably refused to do his personal bidding. So he’s left relying on the only people he can find – Send in the clowns.

  22. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 25m25 minutes ago

    Stop Morrison and Cash’s blather about job growth. Lies and deceit. How about the 50,000 jobs, direct and indirect your mob wiped out in 12 months in the auto industry Mr Turnbull? $300m a year a bargain compared to the 4bn you can suddenly give to OS multinational arms makers.

  25. Pegasus says: Saturday, February 3, 2018 at 4:44 pm

    A Tasmanian state election candidate has been disciplined by Labor after it emerged he photographed himself with a mobile phone between his buttocks.

    *************************************************

    That’s really making an ass of yourself ….. very cheeky !!!!

  27. Professional and academic planning groups think the WGTP is suspect…

    Planning Institute of Australia:
    https://www.planning.org.au/documents/item/8524

    Conclusion
    The Westgate Tunnel project lacks strategic justification; in particular, alternate approaches to addressing the identified land use and transport issues have not been considered or rigorously tested. This should be fundamental to the EES process. While limited in scope, the responses to the EES Evaluation Objectives also raise concerns, including:
    • inappropriate methodology and inadequate extent of traffic modelling;
    • lack of an Integrated Transport Plan;
    • entrenched inequality for those in the outer suburbs without access to a private motor
    vehicle; and
    • significant detriment that is likely to be caused by city exits and infrastructure, in terms of
    both traffic and future development opportunities.

    In considering the EES and PSA, PIA Victoria urges the Minister and the Inquiry and Advisory Committee to be mindful of, and give due regard to, the objectives of the relevant Acts. Support for such a significant, city shaping infrastructure project should be premised on delivering the objectives of the Acts, which include:
    • To secure a pleasant, efficient and safe working, living and recreational environment for all
    Victorians and visitors to Victoria (Planning and Environment Act 1987; s4(1)(c))
    • The transport system should provide a means by which persons can access social and
    economic opportunities to support individual and community wellbeing including by (a) minimising barriers to access so that so far as is possible the transport system is available to as many persons as wish to use it (Transport Integration Act 2010, s8); and
    • The transport system should actively contribute to environmental sustainability by (b) avoiding, minimising and offsetting harm to the local and global environment, including through transport-related emissions and pollutants and the loss of biodiversity (Transport Integration Act 2010; s10).
    As delegated legislation, the State Planning Policy Framework seeks to ensure that planning policies and practices:
    …integrate relevant environmental, social and economic factors in the interests of net community benefit and sustainable development. (SPPF; Clause 10.02)
    The EES does not adequately demonstrate that these objectives are achieved through the project as proposed.

    RMIT Centre for Urban Research
    http://apo.org.au/system/files/122421/apo-nid122421-499941.pdf

    Building on the arguments presented during the EES hearing, we conclude this report by highlighting our key arguments in opposition to this project. These are as follows:
    The WGTP in its current form…
    a. Is oversized, and does not meet most of its stated objectives.
    b. Has been planned without reference to a strategic framework for transportation in Victoria.
    c. Is premised upon a transport modelling process that has been secretive.
    d. Will hinder public transport service provision which, we argue, is against the stated objectives of the Transport Integration Act.
    e. Has a poorly considered urban design dimension, and will devastate potential for urban renewal in the brownfields areas to the north and west of Melbourne CBD.
    f. Emerges from a market-led process for infrastructure procurement that is opaque and raises serious governance questions.
    g. Includes an up-front public contribution of 1/3 the project cost plus a 12-year extension of the right to toll CityLink which is a very poor use of public funds and deprives Victoria of significant future revenue. These costs far outweigh any reasonable or credible assessment of the benefits.

    Therefore, we call on the Victorian Government to immediately stop work on the WGTP. The original West Gate Distributor proposal is a more appropriately scaled, reasonably priced, and strategically suitable solution. The fact that Transurban is willing to invest in a capital project at this time must not be used as a justification for ignoring the need for an integrated Victorian Transport Plan, or the long stated strategic objectives of the Victorian community.

  28. Hmmm, have to wonder if there isn’t a highly toxic culture in the Greens, given that the father of the organisation likes to indulge in victim blaming in a sexual assault case

    A growing scandal around the handling of the sexual assault of a young Greens volunteer in the ACT was recently exposed by The Saturday Paper. Party founder Bob Brown weighed into the debate earlier this week, attacking the victim for her public anonymity.

  30. I suppose The Greens in Victoria would rather a Liberal State government put the East West Link freeway through their cherished Inner City suburbs instead? Sounds like it.

  31. paaptsef @ #2477 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 4:53 pm

    Hmmm, have to wonder if there isn’t a highly toxic culture in the Greens, given that the father of the organisation likes to indulge in victim blaming in a sexual assault case

    A growing scandal around the handling of the sexual assault of a young Greens volunteer in the ACT was recently exposed by The Saturday Paper. Party founder Bob Brown weighed into the debate earlier this week, attacking the victim for her public anonymity.

    Why aren’t you focusing on the blizzard of anti Westgate Tunnel reports The Greens’ worthies are posting here instead!?! 😉

  32. Paaptsef,

    I knew someone would eventually bring it up. You were on my list, but not on the top.

    Bob Brown deserves to be condemned for his shameful response, and has been.

    When he retired, I said at the time, it was a good thing for the Greens party.

  34. Pegasus @ #2481 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 4:32 pm

    Paaptsef,

    I knew someone would eventually bring it up. You were on my list, but not on the top.

    Bob Brown deserves to be condemned for his shameful response, and has been.

    When he retired, I said at the time, it was a good thing for the Greens party.

    Doesn;t seem to be any mention that Brown actually did the assaulting so maybe you should be more concerned about who remains in the Greens rather than who has left.

  35. And here is the Australian Greens co-conveners response:

    ———————————-

    You may have seen some recent media coverage regarding a sexual assault incident concerning an ACT Greens volunteer.

    As your Co-Convenors, we want to make it clear in no uncertain terms that the Australian Greens condemn sexual harassment, violence and assault in the strongest possible way.

    At a national level, we have spent the last several months developing and refining our policies and processes to ensure that we are in the best position we can be to respond effectively to complaints of sexual harassment, violence or assault if they occur. We recognise that coming forward and seeking justice in the wake of an incident of this kind can be profoundly difficult, and we are committed as an organisation to making sure it is as easy as possible for any member or volunteer to make a complaint, or seek support, from our party.

    As a party, we are committed to eradicating sexual harassment, violence and assault in our organisation, in our workplaces, on our streets and in our homes.

    The Australian Greens have been working with state and territory parties
    toward implementing consent training across the country. We are developing a range of materials that identify unacceptable behaviour and complaint mechanisms and ensure people in key positions in our party are equipped and trained to effectively respond to any incidents or allegations of this nature.
    Finally, there is no place for victim shaming or blaming in our party. Any person who seeks justice after an assault, who makes a complaint, or who shares their story, deserves to be listened to, respected and supported.

    The Greens recognise our duty of care to our members and volunteers, and we are committed to ensuring that we create a safe environment that protects those who speak up.

    We will be in touch over coming weeks as we continue work to develop the resources, training and policies we need to make sure our party is always a safe and supportive place for all of our members and volunteers.

  39. I hope this snakey tit-for-tat doesn’t continue until the Batman election. Energy not spent in bringing down the Coalition govt is energy wasted.

  40. lizzie @ #2488 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 4:50 pm

    I hope this snakey tit-for-tat doesn’t continue until the Batman election. Energy not spent in bringing down the Coalition govt is energy wasted.

    After scrolling through several pages of the Pegasus linking stuff it thinks might be anti Labor I got bored and thought I might be able to Google up something more interesting thats all.

  41. The Coalition does not want to see the greens winning anything. To the libs, greens are anathema.

    They are not running and I suspect they hope that will bump up the ALP primary enough to head of the greens candidate – thinking that their own people are more likely to see ALP as lesser of two evils.

    I know some will think this idea crazy, but a 3 way tussle in a by-election can be fraught with danger. Fringe parties and preferences make it messy. A basic two-way fight is likely to be more decisive.

    I know some would think that the Libs want to disempower ALP wherever possible BUT they like to keep the 2 party preeminence system alive and thriving. Libs see the greens as similar to ON as they are outsiders wanting to be in ‘the club’. They’ll want to continue to limit that. (Think Higgins?)

  42. lizzie @ #2488 Saturday, February 3rd, 2018 – 5:20 pm

    I hope this snakey tit-for-tat doesn’t continue until the Batman election. Energy not spent in bringing down the Coalition govt is energy wasted.

    Tell that to Pegasus, who starts every day with the first in a prodigious litany of any Anti Labor
    material she can dredge up.

    Try and question her about the quality of the assertions contained within and all you get is snark in return.

    Plus, if you don’t say anything, then the regurgitation continues unabated without scrutiny.

    I don’t know about you, lizzie, but I don’t want the blog to be transformed into the ‘Green Left Weekly’ until the Batman by-election is over. Do you?

  43. I make no apologies for providing information to rebut the claims, misrepresentations and untruths bandied about in relation to the Greens.

  46. Pegasus; bakunin
    It’s about trucks; you seem to be able to bring up a lot of stuff about cars; but not much about trucks.

    • entrenched inequality for those in the outer suburbs without access to a private motor
    vehicle;

    What has that got to do with trucks?

    significant detriment that is likely to be caused by city exits and infrastructure, in terms of
    both traffic and future development opportunities.

    The exits are into the ports?

    The transport system should provide a means by which persons can access social and
    economic opportunities to support individual and community wellbeing including by (a) minimising barriers to access so that so far as is possible the transport system is available to as many persons as wish to use it (Transport Integration Act 2010, s8).

    What has that go to do with trucks?

  48. Newsflash Peg: EVERY poster posts erroneous rubbish about the parties they don’t support. You’re not on your Pat Malone.

    It is the reason there are so many arguments on this blog.

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