The first ReachTEL poll of the year for Sky News is one of the Coalition’s better results of recent times, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 53-47 to 52-48 from the previous poll on November 28. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 34%; Labor is steady on 36%; the Greens are steady on 10%; and One Nation is down one to 8%.
Malcolm Turnbull also records a strong improvement on his personal ratings, being rated good by 30% (up six), average by 37% (up two) and poor by 32% (down eight). Bill Shorten is on 31% good (up one), 32% average (down four) and 36% poor (up three-and-a-half). Turnbull has increased his lead on ReachTEL’s all-or-nothing preferred prime minister measure, which typically produces closer results than other pollsters: last time it was 52-48, this time it’s 54-46.
The poll also finds 32% support for a cut in the company tax rate for businesses with a turnover of more than $50 million, with 44% opposed. Thirty-nine per cent of respondents rated that trade deals were good for employment, compared with 20% for poor; but 49% said Labor should vote against the Trans Pacific Partnership if it “doesn’t protect jobs”, with 20% taking the contrary view.
I’m not exactly sure what the field date was for the poll, but ReachTEL uses robopolling with samples of typically around 2300.
In other news, Tasmanian Premier Will Hodgman today called an election for March 3, which means there will be no clash with South Australia this time, as there was in 2010 and 2014. I hope to have a full election guide posted later today, so stay tuned.
bemused @ #65 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 3:36 pm
It is worse than mere incompetence. Feeney also ‘forgot’ to declare a 2.3 million dollar property, which neutralised any attack against Michaelia Cash for the same sin.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-david-feeney-didnt-declare-23m-house-and-doesnt-know-if-its-negatively-geared-20160517-gowys9.html
Bullshit he forgot. Even if he really did forget, then he is clearly too cognitively challenged to be given any serious responsibility, like being an MP.
This reckless clown has form, and there is no place for people like this in any organisation with a serious purpose.
Labor must set a clear example here. At the very least Feeney needs to be disendorsed, and promptly.
This is also one of those times when ALP head office might need to override the local branch’s choice for a replacement.
JM
Preselections haven’t happened yet in Victoria, as the new electoral boundaries haven’t been determined. So disendorsement isn’t an option atm, as no one has been endorsed.
This is not news, much less breaking news.
I trust that if/when the HC declares Feeney to have been an incompetent slackarse that an opportunity will arise for an ‘adjustment’ to who the ALP puts up as a candidate at the subsequent byelection…
Rex Douglas @ #95 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 6:16 pm
You’re a hoot, Rex. What would your advice be if Labor were behind? Stick with a loser?
I am sure Shorten and his office, his federal labor colleagues and national office have not spent the break sitting around looking at the fluff in their navels and completely ignoring the political and policy challenges and opportunities that this year will bring.
I am sure federal labor appreciates all of the advice offered here re what they should and should not do but perhaps we should chill out a bit and let the year unfold and see what has been game planned instead of hyperventilating.
Just a thought for a few posters here who appear to be on the edge with ” worry and concern ” for Shorten in particular and labor in general.
Cheers and a great night to all.
doyley,
The time to go on Shorten is now. You’re all thinking it and I’m saying it for you.
Oakeshott Country (AnonBlock)
Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 5:01 pm
Comment #60
Oakeshott I would be surprised if Feeney stands for reselection. He came too close to losing last time and the hard heads won’t stand for it.
The Australian public hate Shorten so much that almost all published polling in the last year and a half has him winning the next election in a landslide.
Rex Shorten won’t be replace prior to the next election. Neither will Turnbull short of retirement.
Rex,
Tell me what I am thinking now after reading another ” tell him he’s dreaming ” post from you.
Cheers.
How much louder do the polling respondents have to scream at Labor to change their leader.
Polling clearly indicates they prefer a Labor Govt to the Coalition but don’t want Bill Shorten as PM.
What are Labor waiting for ??
Your thinking gee that Rex makes some thought provoking comments? 🙂
zoomster @ #102 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 6:37 pm
What if there is a by-election?
davidwh @ #113 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 7:00 pm
The vuvuzela of PB commenters.
For some reason, the abbreviation BiGD reminds me of Pilate’s friend in “The Life of Brian”.
P.S. Who’s Rex Shorten?
Barney:
Enjoy your holidays!
Oooh let me!
https://i.giphy.com/media/E2USislQIlsfm/giphy.webp
Labor needs to clear the decks. The N-NP-Murdoch dirt units will be in overdrive as the election nears. That imbecile Feeny should be first to go, then anyone else with questions hanging over them.
Confessions @ #103 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 5:44 pm
Some claims are so far from reality that even Trump won’t go there.
Or more likely, he knows where his base stands on the issue.
bemused
Obviously if there is a by election a candidate will be endorsed.
Fess I agree with Mumbles sentiment although I disagree with most of his expressions
Point taken, Zoomster. Thanks for the info.
doyley
What the average voter is likely to take away from this is that Labor couldn’t organise a piss-up in a union owned brewery, and are self-righteous hypocrites.
I hope I am wrong.
a r:
According to Morgan’s tweets, Trump bragged in the interview that May offered him two visits to the UK. On reading it I was reminded of the whole ‘my button’s bigger than yours’ anger tweeting from the other week.
zoomster @ #121 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 7:16 pm
And equally obviously, it does not need to be Feeney.
Surely they wouldn’t preselect Feeney?
davidwh:
He cops a bit of abuse on twitter so I suppose those comments expressed in that fashion may be a reaction to that.
S.44(i) should be repealed. Voters do not care at all whether MPs are or are not dual citizens.
briefly @ #129 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 7:23 pm
Another vuvuzela.
Were the TPP lead a lot closer, Shorten’s uninspiring netsats could possibly justify a change in leader. But with how far ahead they’ve been since the 2016 election? No way. Talk about shooting themselves in the foot.
This isn’t like in 2006, where the opposition leader only had a small TPP lead against a prime minister who was famous for winning elections against insurmountable odds, twice against that very opposition leader. Nor is it like 1983, where there is an obvious, broadly popular leadership candidate waiting in the wings.
If the Coalition comes back on top – especially if its with Turnbull as leader, rather than a honeymoon bounce from his replacement – then I’d agree that it would be time to seriously consider a challenge. But as things stand at the moment, the potential reward (winning government in ahistoric landslide rather than a standard election victory) is far outweighed by the risks (the new Labor leader implodes Latham-style and/or ALP leadership tension allow the Coalition to get the upper hand in the media narratives, causing Labor to lose an election they are the current favourites to win.)
Changing leaders is always a risk. No matter how much experience an MP has, no matter how well the caucus may think they know him or her, they can never truly know how they will function in the top job, how they will cope with the extra pressure and media scrutiny, what gaffes they may end up making, what skeletons may be lurking in their closets.
Sometimes the potential rewards justify the risk – when the current leader is performing terribly, its a reward of “we could actually win the next election” vs. a risk of “we may still do just as bad or a bit worse than we already are”, when things are close and the leader isn’t too popular, its a reward of “we could change a maybe to a definite victory” vs. a risk of “we could change a maybe to a definite loss”, and when the current leader resigns or retires, well, someone simply has to replace them. I don’t see this as being one of those cases.
Shorten isn’t exactly Mr. Popular. But he’s competent, he’s a solid (if not especially charismatic) communicator, makes very few gaffes, stays very calm under pressure (during Turnbulls late 2015 / early 2016 honeymoon, Shorten didn’t lose the plot trying to gain the upper hand like some leaders do when their fortunes are reversed), and he seems broadly popular within the Labor caucus, who stayed loyal and united even during the 2015-2016 polling woes. The latter strikes me as pretty important given the ALP’s 2007-2013 leadership turmoil.
Fess Mundine is too pragmatic for those demanding idealistic solutions for very difficult problems.
davidwh @ #132 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 7:27 pm
He is a Labor rat.
End of story.
Well that is unforgivable Comrade 🙂
davidwh @ #134 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 7:29 pm
The worst thing any ALP member can be called.
In the proud tradition of the likes of Billy Hughes and Mal Colston.
If it wasn’t for the dead weight of Bill Shorten then Gough Whitlam would have risen from the dead, taken the Labor leadership and be 350 points up in Bludgertrack.
bemused @ #134 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 7:31 pm
…and the King rat Kevin Rudd.
WHen do you cease to be a “young” Liberal? When I was young and knew Young Libs it was a social group for uni students.
This Abetz acolyte is 27.
http://www.theage.com.au/act-news/josh-manuatu-elected-president-of-the-young-liberals-20180128-h0pg9q.html
One thing we can be certain of is that whatever RD has in mind when he’s offering free advice to Labor, their best interests is not among them. Rex hopes for Labor to fail.
Rossmcg:
Maybe he keeps having to repeat.
Rossmcg @ #138 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 7:34 pm
When I was in Young Labor, it had an age limit of 36 and tended to be run by ‘youths’ around that age.
I was on the State Executive that changed the rules to drop it to 25 IIRC.
The Young Libs seem to have a generally older demographic than Young Labor.
davidwh @ #132 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 4:27 pm
Maybe. I didn’t agree with his views on nuclear power and uranium mining, and I can’t stand how people seek to deride him because he’s married to Gerard Henderson’s daughter. But if he advances ideas and views based on what he thinks would work best for indigenous Australians, then fair enough. Criticise his views, but don’t call him a sell out or whatever.
Briefly is right. While those now in Parliament are subject to Section 44, the restriction has well and truly passed its use by date in a nation of dual citizens. And as for the ‘office of profit’ under the crown, why should police officers, public hospital nurses and other public servants be barred from running for Parliament? Many in Parliament now have far bigger conflicts of interest, like their post-retirement sinecures with Big Business players in their area of responsibility. All those fighting hard for Adani. All those with “investment” properties.
Section 44 should be scrapped. We should have a referendum to this end.
rossmcg:
The way he’s often written about, Alex Hawke has been a young Lib for most of his adult life 😆
Steve777 @ #143 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 7:39 pm
I will watch with interest as you and Briefly campaign for this.
I have better things to do.
Steve777 @ #142 Sunday, January 28th, 2018 – 7:39 pm
Briefly is wrong.
It’s fine to be a dual citizen but its not fine to be a dual citizen who makes the laws of this country. The difference and the conflict of interest is very clear.
Bemused
I think it was Keating who coined the term “young fogey” for these people.
I would wager he will show up on a senate ticket in Tasmania in an election or two.
Once it became apparent that people who for all intents and purposes are Australian citizens, it was obvious the clause is anachronistic and due for reform.
That people who were born here, lived here their whole lives, and/or have become dual citizenship by way of marriage or because of a parent who hails from a country that recently changed its laws on dual citizenship, find themselves no longer eligible to sit as federal MPs is just farcical.
A streaker!
#cricketonPB
A citizen is a citizen. If they’re good enough to be an Australian, they’re good enough to tun for and be elected to Parliament.