BludgerTrack returns for 2018 with methodological tinkering to address two issues. The first is an effort to account for a different preference environment with the rise of the One Nation; the second puts the various pollsters on a level playing field in calculating the leadership rating treds.
After polling a national primary vote of 1.3% from the fifteen lower house seats they contested, One Nation’s polling has been approaching double figures for at least the past year. This limits the utility of allocating preferences as they flowed at the previous election, which is the most reliable method when the minor party environment experiences little change from one election to the next. The Coalition received barely more than half of One Nation’s preferences in 2016, but they did quite a bit better than that at last year’s state elections, receiving around 65% in Queensland and 60% in Western Australia — presumably because many of their new supporters have defected from the Coalition.
The alternative to previous election preference flows is respondent allocation, which the experience of the state elections suggests is leaning too far in the other direction. The approach now taken by BludgerTrack is to split the difference, which would have worked well if it had been applied in 2016. This is done by combining trend measures of previous election and respondent-allocated flows, with Ipsos and ReachTEL providing the data for the latter.
The chart below shows how these trends pan out in the latest run of the aggregation. Both pollsters had the Coalition maintaining its mid-thirties share from the election until around the middle of last year, when it rose to the low forties. With the major parties now accounting for barely three-quarters of the total vote, a change on this scale would, by itself, result in more than a full point of difference to the two-party total.
The impact of the new method on the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading is illustrated below, with the chart on the left showing how things would look if previous election preferences were still applied. The upshot is that BludgerTrack should be at least half a point less favourable for Labor than it was before, at least for as long as the recent pattern of respondent-allocated preference polling holds.
The second change relates to the leadership ratings measures, which until now made no effort to distinguish between the very substantial peculiarities of different pollsters. This meant its results were saying as much about the pollster that had reported most recently as they did about changes in the standing of the two leaders.
Unlike voting intention, leadership ratings cannot be measured against a real world benchmark. So the approach taken here is to treat Newspoll as the centre of gravity, and adjust the other pollsters by benchmarking them against a trend measure of Newspoll. These results are illustrated in the table below, which effectively shows how different a typical result from each pollster will be from a typical Newspoll.
| Essential | Ipsos | YouGov | Morgan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnbull | Satisified | +3.9% | +12.0% | +11.0% | -0.9% |
| Dissatisfied | -9.1% | -9.7% | -7.6% | -2.4% | |
| Net | +13.0% | +21.7% | +18.6% | +1.5% | |
| Shorten | Satisified | +0.9% | +4.8% | +10.0% | -3.8% |
| Dissatisfied | -9.3% | -1.9% | -8.1% | -0.4% | |
| Net | +10.2% | +6.7% | +18.1% | -3.4% | |
| Preferred | Turnbull | -3.4% | +5.5% | -7.5% | +5.7% |
| Shorten | -3.5% | +0.8% | -4.0% | +0.3% | |
| N | 30 | 15 | 5 | 2 |
This shows that both leaders, but Malcolm Turnbull especially, do much worse on Newspoll’s approval and disapproval ratings than they do from Essential, Ipsos and YouGov. Since these differences are now being corrected for, BludgerTrack will tend to record weaker net satisfaction results for both leaders, but especially for Turnbull.
This brings us to the latest BludgerTrack numbers, which as always are displayed in all their glory on the sidebar. Since the Essential poll is the only new data point of the last few weeks, a certain amount of caution is advised. While the Essential numbers were slightly better than the Coalition’s form late last year, more than half the 1.2% shift recorded in favour of the Coalition is down to the new preference method. It hasn’t made much difference to the seat projection, on which the Coalition gain one apiece in Queensland and South Australia, but lose one in Western Australia.
The impact of the new leadership ratings method on Malcolm Turnbull’s net satisfaction is muted by a set of Essential numbers which were, by the pollsters long-term standards, relatively good for him. However, Bill Shorten had a weak result from Essential, and is accordingly well down.
Cost of living going through the roof. But is it?
There has been a bit of commentary around from people like Jericho and Gittins that casts some doubt on this.
Inflation is at what? Around 2 per cent? There is a big focus on energy prices but they actually make a small part of a year’s spend.
Those of us who remember Howard’s triple double: double-digit inflation (December 1981 to June 1983), double-digit levels of unemployment (April to October 1983) and double-digit interest rates (November 1980 to October 1983) look at the current situation and smile a bit.
I know wages are stagnant and that is what is putting the pressure on. But as somebody who at various times in my life has had to deal with massive wage cuts through job loss I know what it is like to tighten the belt.
Rossmcg
Health insurance, education costs, energy costs, housing costs all have risen above inflation
rossmcg
I think one of the problems, apart from casualisation, etc., is that expectations (aspirations?) are constantly rising and technological ‘advances’ are behind this. I don’t want to write an essay on it, but examples are the ‘necessity’ for all members of a household to have their own ‘devices’. If I want to buy a new washing machine, it appears that it will demand an internet connection. Parents must be under terrible pressure to conform with ‘class standards’.
guytaur @ #148 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 8:09 am
I don’t see how you can make that claim without the following proviso;
Both questions involved, practically for most people, giving up and changing nothing! 🙂
C@tmomma @ #132 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 10:46 am
I never said there was one homogenized view. But there is certainly one majority view (though note that I’ve not said anything about what that is, or even about whether or not it has been put forward). Just as there were certainly clear majority positions from the LGBT community on 1) whether or not Australia should have marriage equality, and 2) whether or not there should be a plebiscite on the matter. There were of course individual dissenters on both topics, but that doesn’t mean there’s any basis for a credible argument that “the LGBT community wants the plebiscite” or even “the LGBT community is divided”.
Your argument seems to be that the Uluru Statement from the Heart is eminently dismissable because it wasn’t personally endorsed by every Indigenous person in Australia. I think that’s at least a bit silly.
Eh, I don’t see how feeling grateful for the opportunities that Australian society has given means you can’t also feel a bit upset over Australia Day and think that the date should be changed. The two things are unrelated.
They are.
They speak for themselves.
I don’t know, you’ll note that I clearly said if. But my guess is there’s quite probably an obvious majority opinion within that community, akin to the obvious majority opinions within the LGBT community on SSM-related issues. Accept it, demonstrate a clear majority opinion to the contrary, or go full LNP and call for a disingenuous, divisive, and delaying, demographically-targeted plebiscite on the matter.
JEChalmers: MEDIA RELEASE: Turnbull’s tax cuts for multinationals will deliver nowhere near enough bang for 65 billion bucks and will jeopardise Budget repair and investments in education, training and productivity #auspol pic.twitter.com/CSwZa5WyXM
Asha Leu @ #146 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 12:04 pm
May I respectfully call bullshit on that, Asha.
Up until now I have indeed, respectfully, voiced my support for Indigenous Leaders and others who have had a differing opinion about Changing the Date of Australia Day, as they have, in their wisdom, and from generations of struggle, like Senator Dr Pat Dodson, Dr Robert Isaacs, Malandiiri McCarthy and Linda Burney, chosen to devote their energies to fighting fights grounded in the everyday reality of life for an Indigenous Australian in 21st century Australia. In contrast to the virtuous signalling that The Greens have championed wrt changing the date of Australia Day. Sure, there are other Indigenous Australians for whom this is a signature issue, and I don’t think, from memeory, though I’m sure you’ll be quick to spring up with an example otherwise if I’m wrong, that I have criticised THEM for doing so.
Instead, I have pointed out that they and their campaign are not the only voices in the Indigenous Community and that maybe the opinions of those other voices should be viewed as seriously as some here are taking that of those who are campaigning to change the date of Australia Day.
For that I am the worst racist in the world, apparently.
Well, I haven’t wanted to engage in my own virtuous signalling until now, but I wonder how many of the loudest voices in the Non Indigenous Australian community, that have I have had to go on as if they were saints for the cause here, had a spouse or family member that rode on Charles Perkins’ Freedom Bus and went on the Freedom Ride? You may want to read about it here:
http://indigenousrights.net.au/civil_rights/freedom_ride,_1965
Well, my late husband did. He also worked with Indigenous Australians in the Cotton fields around Wee Waa. I have heard about their stories first hand, and, to a man and a boy they were all about being paid fairly, being able to access home loans, not being discriminated against, getting a decent education for their kids and decent healthcare for their families.
Not one of them spoke about changing the bloody date of Australia Day!
So, excuse ME if I take The Greens’, and others, ‘National Campaign’ to change the date of Australia Day with a very large grain of salt. I will always be about the bigger fish to fry for the Indigenous Australians. As was my late husband. Hand-wringing about symbolism just isn’t my thing.
Libertarian Unionist @ #125 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 11:41 am
It wasn’t meant to be harsh. As I said, I think it’s sad. But also dangerous. After all, as BK’s links and various other posts just today demonstrate – this is one of the biggest environmental and political stories of the current era.
I have readily acknowledged that there are people here – yourself included – who know more than me about various technical aspects. I try and learn from them. I know a lot more about the issue now than I did when I started posting – I look back on some of my early posts and cringe 🙂
That’s the benefit of participating in the debate. I don’t know whether I have changed anyone else’s opinions by doing so – but I have certainly changed mine! My early opinions were similar to those of many others here – i.e. surely there is a clear and obvious solution that everyone can agree to simply act on.
Problem is, there simply isn’t one. The real solution is going to be complex, multi-faceted, messy and extremely difficult … and require sacrifices that very few are (yet) willing to make.
Socrates @ #15 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 5:10 am
The energy use involved in producing & recycling a battery is a valid point in determining its environmental friendliness relative to internal combustion and it is something that needs to be addressed with facts.
lizzie @ #136 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 11:49 am
Apologies, lizzie. I didn’t mean to single you out particularly. I was making a general point off your post.
Shame you won’t see this apology though, isn’t it? 🙂
rossmcg @ #105 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 11:22 am
Gout eh?
Dr thought I may have had that once. The prospect was horrible – no tomatoes or red wine! And she wouldn’t compromise and just make it no tomatoes. 😮
I was greatly relieved when I was eventually diagnosed as merely having a broken metatarsal bone! 😛
antonbruckner and victoria
Is the cost of living truly “going through the roof”?
This article from last year by Ross Gittins puts a counter view, and provides solid evidence to back his case.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/gittins-column-20170814-gxwafq.html
My impression is that cost of living pressures, such as they are, impact variably across the population. Those under most pressure are people who have not yet purchased a home and do not have access to secure publicly-funded housing in the city/town where they wish to live (especially if that city happens to be Sydney), and are therefore facing high mortgage or rental costs. This is a minority group, albeit a sizeable one.
But the majority of the population seems to me to enjoying about the best standard of living ever enjoyed by Australians: big houses (which they have been able to pay off quickly due to the record low interest rates), cars less than five years old, frequent overseas holidays, private schools for the kids, eating out several nights a week, etc., etc.
I’m not talking about a small elite here. I’m talking people on average household incomes.
My parents considered themselves to be upper middle class, but they had second hand cars all their lives, saw eating out as a huge treat, wouldn’t have dreamed of buying a cup of coffee (let alone smashed avo!) at a cafe, sent us to state schools, never had an overseas trip until they were retired, etc.
Nowadays, I meet a lot of people on the age pension who often go overseas on cruises, etc.
Like Gittins, I’m inclined to feel the cost of living stuff is a bit of a baseless whinge. But perhaps I’m in a bit of a grumpy old man mode today.
Barney
Yes
The whole no campaign on marriage equality was about what would be lost.
People saw through the campaign.
Its the same with a Treaty and a voice to parliament in fact the whole Makaratta process.
We have lots to gain. Not much to lose at all as citizens from such a process.
Especially with symbolic things like Change the Date. Something that doesn’t even need a referendum.
The Culture warriors are campaigning against the Change the Date as hard as they did against Marriage Equality. Long term they have already lost.
The date will change when Mr Shorten does his Republic.
The date might change before that once the RWNJ don’t have power to block it.
In the meantime its a good thing the Greens have raised it as it has brought focus onto the human rights of our Indigenous people and the lack thereof.
Australians will vote for human rights. Thats what the ME survey proved. Australian want equality and human rights and will vote for that.
No matter how much the Right Wing screams about law and order. See the polls in Victoria after Dutton dog whistle on African Gangs.
We have a party in power that has lost the culture war making a lot of heat and light signifying nothing.
The liberal government said that Australia could never support a viable car manufacturing industry putting thousands of people out of work.
On October 20th the Holden Adelaide Plant shut down and 3 months later Sanjeev Gupta would like to build Electric cars in it.
Never, it seems, is a lot shorter than it used to be.
a r,
I don’t think there is a majority view either for changing the date of Australia day among the Indigenous Australian community, unlike the near-unanimous view of the LGBTQI community towards Same Sex Marriage.
Your argument seems to be that the Uluru Statement from the Heart is eminently dismissable because it wasn’t personally endorsed by every Indigenous person in Australia. I think that’s at least a bit silly.
I never said anything about the Uluru statement from the Heart, so trying to muddy the waters by referring to it wrt me is disingenuous at best and misleading at worst.
Of course I support it because it’s enactment by the Government of Australia, hopefully when Labor are in power federally soon, will produce the sort of practical improvements to the lives of Indigenous Australians that I have spoken of previously.
Eh, I don’t see how feeling grateful for the opportunities that Australian society has given means you can’t also feel a bit upset over Australia Day and think that the date should be changed. The two things are unrelated.
Well, yes, obviously. However, my point, and maybe I haven’t made it plain enough for you, is that it is not the cardinal issue for Indigenous Australia some here would like us to believe.
rossmcg: snap! (sort of)
Lizzie
I have two sons, both in their 30s, in work and their spending habits stagger me.
They have decided they have little prospect of home ownership in my lifetime (with some justification) so saving is just not on their agenda.
Voice Endeavour @ #121 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 11:37 am
If they take your suggestion, the record so far is that they are likely to be apprehended in an act of piracy by Dutton’s Pirates (aka border force), taken against their will to one of said places of imprisonment and torture, and rot there for years.
Bemused
Not the red wine for me as a gout trigger. Hardly ever drink it, and not because I don’t like it, more like it too much.
I figured out when I was stricken quite badly a decade or so ago that seafood was most likely the cause for me (as it is for many people).
Bloke next door gave me three delectable Swan River crabs last week and they are the likely suspect though it has taken a good week to manifest itself.
TheRickyDavila: A Jewish college student was brutally murdered by his white supremacist high school classmate in Los Angeles. Another act of violence by @realDonaldTrump’s “very fine people.”
haaretz.com/blaze-bernstei…
https://twitter.com/therickydavila/status/955617913360273408
Dr thought I may have had that once. The prospect was horrible – no tomatoes or red wine! And she wouldn’t compromise and just make it no tomatoes.
I was greatly relieved when I was eventually diagnosed as merely having a broken metatarsal bone!
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
I think you have an excellent GP, as have I.
The real world and what I think about it at times are at wild variance.
I have recently taken to wearing a sleep mask for my little daytime naps.
A couple of day ago my left eye was sore and weeping in the morning but improved during the day.
This sore, better routine continued until I thought a trip to my GP may be in order.
After rescuing a little eye bath cup and using it I seem to be cured.
I used, many years ago, think to myself, what a clever boy am I.
‘Tis to laugh. Ha de hah hah. 🤣🤣
guytaur @ #134 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 11:46 am
Odd conversation.
I sometimes have conversations with people on the train, but I have never inquired as to their sexuality and none have wanted to tell me about it, nor have I wanted to tell them about mine.
Boerwar @ #50 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 6:49 am
I posted this on the old thread this morning after we moved on, so I’ll repost. There is absolutly no shortage of food in the world.
There is absolutely no shortage of food in the world. We have a food distribution problem, not a food production problem. My in-laws are farmers and on average, they throw out 30% of their crop for cosmetic reasons each season (too big/small, cosmetic skin blemishes), which is the industry norm for their crop. There are other farmers where the industry norm is to dispose of 50% of their crop for cosmetic reasons.
Bemused
Sexuality is no longer a taboo subject. Pride of showing you are gay happens every day in the public sphere now. There is no shame in that.
So of course sexuality conversation comes up. Especially if its from another gay person.
Ditto skin colour which cannot be hidden of course.
Its the reaction of people to this that is the racism or homophobia. Not the person being proud of who they are.
@meher baba
You do know who Ross Gittens is right? A liberal apologist.
grimace @ #172 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 12:54 pm
Agreed. We are not short of food, we are oversupplied with people!
albericie: Government says Australia’s big companies are paying one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world. That’s not true. When you strip out deductions etc, what they actually pay is around 17% – 4th lowest in the G20. See comparisons here cbo.gov/sites/default/…
https://twitter.com/albericie/status/955205070928322560
Zoidlord says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2018 at 12:58 pm
@meher baba
You do know who Ross Gittens is right? A liberal apologist.
I thoroughly enjoy his columns. The best economics writer around, for my money.
And Tennys was the winner! 😉
Yeah but two of my best friends/acquaintances/random people I accosted at my local croquet club are Aboriginal people and they reckon the date doesn’t need to be changed, so I reckon the 83% are perpetrating a horrible wedge on Labor and need to be told, “Piss off, evil wedgers.”
Re the attitude of Indigenous people towards Australia Day.
My from the public debate is that, while it might well be the case that the majority would like to see the day changed, it doesn’t appear to be a red hot issue for them at the moment. However, my past experience in that world (albeit from a couple of decades back) is that this is just the sort of issue that can gradually build momentum within the Indigenous communities, so it’s quite possible that the call for a change could become louder in future years.
There are obvious risks in this. I am also under the impression that Australia Day is more popular than ever among a sizeable part of the White population. Louder calls for a change from the Indigenous and their friends in the Greens could provoke a backlash and make the issue a divisive one which will be more of a hindrance than a help to the interests of Indigenous people.
But, because I’m an incorrigible optimist, I would think that the debate would eventually result in a new national day, although – as I’ve posted previously – I would like to see January 26 still celebrated as the date on which a lot of people were landed in Australia against their will and yet subsequently were able to make the best of a bad situation.
But it might be a bit of an ugly debate for a while. Oh well, contrary to the views of some people these days, I don’t think there’s any call for trying to turn political debates into “safe spaces.”
Nicholas
You left off the link to the poll.
renew_economy: A rare admission: Frydenberg says more wind and #solar will cut prices, improve reliability ow.ly/UeDa30hWhzs #auspol
http://reneweconomy.com.au/ret-met-frydenberg-concedes-wind-solar-will-lower-prices-improve-reliability-47006/
guytaur @ #148 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 12:09 pm
Sunshine, when you or any of your noisy “Change the Date” mob can tell me to which date, I will start taking you seriously.
Right now it just sounds like “pick a date, any date” which is sheer nonsense. It has to be a date to which a significant event is attached.
The only possible contender at present is the date of Federation.
Other significant dates may emerge in the future.
@Don
There are no “Best” economists, as they all have vested interests to make themselves money.
Bemused
There have been various date suggestions from Wattle Day to the First Sitting of Federal Parliament in May.
The latter having advantage of giving an extra public holiday to Mums with Mothers Day.
Who told the National Congress of Australia’s First Peoples to piss off?
Zoidlord: “You do know who Ross Gittens is right? A liberal apologist.”
If my memory serves me correctly, Gittins has been known to reminisce about growing up in the bush in a National-voting family of Salvos. But my sense is that, these days, his views are moderately left of centre.
But, at heart, he seems to me be an inveterate contrarian.
Over many years, he’s become repetitious in the way that he begins with articles (including the one I linked to) with a statement along the lines of “You might think …[insert proposition here]… but in fact the exact opposite is the case, as I will now demonstrate.”
Nicholas @ #179 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 1:04 pm
You think that’s funny, don’t you? Says a lot about you, actually. That the only Indigenous Australian opinions you respect are the ones that agree with you.
Mr Shorten doing well on People Smugglers and Dutton rhetoric.
Reuters: Vermont becomes ninth U.S. state to legalize marijuana reut.rs/2E0rxLs pic.twitter.com/7ZOvPI8DXj
https://twitter.com/reuters/status/955626187514138630
_________________________
Shutdown over
GOP caved.
I like the way Mr Shorten is presenting himself here. Sounds like when he talks in Town Halls in answers to questions.
bemused @ #183 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 1:09 pm
Any date is better than the date of the hostile invasion. That’s the substantive issue.
rossmcg @ #168 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 12:47 pm
Well you obviously understand my relief when it was eventually diagnosed, not as gout, but a broken bone in the foot. Only took about 10 weeks to heal vs gout going on for ever.
Good morning all,
Turnbull, commentators and the MSM can rabbit on about how good things are and how growing inequality in Australia is nothing but a myth. Turmbull and Morrison can pat themselves on the back and claim their jobs and growth mantra is actually working and as a result more Australians than ever before are working. It will do them no good.
The lived experience is what counts and as long as people believe or perceive themselves to be doing it tough then that is the reality for them.
Cadualization, underemployment, credit cards maxed to the full, rising power prices are what Australians are faced with on a daily basis and that is the reality for them.
Perception is reality and once it takes holds very hard to change.
Cheers.
guytaur @ #173 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 12:55 pm
I DON’T CARE and feel no need to know.
guytaur,
It’s worthwhile reading Davis with an open mind – she does know what she is talking about.
This is a snip from Megan Davis’s bio:
Worth noting that what Davis says is reflected in the words of the Uluru Statement from the Heart.
Some very encouraging results from the home detention trial.
“Attorney-General John Rau has released figures that show 286 people were sentenced to home detention instead of jail in the 15 months since its controversial introduction in September 2016.
Of that number, 28 offenders had failed to complete their home detention — a failure rate of about 10 per cent. All but one failed drug tests and the other absconded after removing the monitoring bracelet.”
I bet more than 10% would have failed a drug test in prison and only one removed the monitoring bracelet out of 280.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/home-detention-sentencing-orders-deemed-a-success-after-first-15-months-with-rehabilitation-rates-monitored-for-possible-expansion/news-story/54dd9461dc5ff2a3aa1c5aae4322402d
Rex Douglas @ #192 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 1:24 pm
Just what I was saying a bout your noisy “Change the Date” mob. “Pick a Date, any date!”
Idiotic.
Re the argument that the Australia Day debate is a symbolic issue distracting attention away from the “real issues” for Indigenous people.
I will first note that two current issues for Indigenous people – both of which I consider to be important – are arguably also largely symbolic. The first of these is the embarrassingly long overdue need for some sort of treaty/compact/constitutional preamble or whatever. IMO this simply just has to happen asap.
The second is the idea of some sort of additional, Indigenously-elected parliamentary assembly. I’m also personally in favour of this, although it would be a huge struggle to get a Yes vote for this in a referendum. But, if I were PM, I’d still be inclined to have a go: although Turnbull clearly isn’t and I doubt Shorten would be when it comes to the crunch.
Beyond this, there are the clear and continuing levels of almost every sort of disadvantage among Indigenous people. So much money has been spent and so many things have been tried by the Federal Government in the 50 years since the referendum, but my impression is that things in the Indigenous communities are generally even worse now than they were in 1967. (Overall statistics can be misleading here, as there is now a growing group of middle class urban people who are identifying as Indigenous based on ancestry. These people have education, employment, income and health outcomes more akin to those of the broader White population than to those among people who live in Indigenous communities in the bush and on the urban fringes.)
I think most people agree that education and employment are the key drivers for any lasting solution. But these are not easy benefits to deliver into Indigenous communities, where the values such as paying attention to schoolwork and behaving responsibly as an employee are not necessarily widely understood or accepted. And, of course, employment opportunities for anyone living in the remoter parts of our rural areas are not particularly abundant. Of course, there are jobs in the larger towns and the cities, but Indigenous people are, if anything, becoming less and less inclined to want to move.
Overcoming the multi-faceted problem of Indigenous disadvantage is a fiendishly difficult task. Of course it’s imperative for us to try. But any politician who claims to have the answers is either deluded or a liar.