BludgerTrack returns for 2018 with methodological tinkering to address two issues. The first is an effort to account for a different preference environment with the rise of the One Nation; the second puts the various pollsters on a level playing field in calculating the leadership rating treds.
After polling a national primary vote of 1.3% from the fifteen lower house seats they contested, One Nation’s polling has been approaching double figures for at least the past year. This limits the utility of allocating preferences as they flowed at the previous election, which is the most reliable method when the minor party environment experiences little change from one election to the next. The Coalition received barely more than half of One Nation’s preferences in 2016, but they did quite a bit better than that at last year’s state elections, receiving around 65% in Queensland and 60% in Western Australia — presumably because many of their new supporters have defected from the Coalition.
The alternative to previous election preference flows is respondent allocation, which the experience of the state elections suggests is leaning too far in the other direction. The approach now taken by BludgerTrack is to split the difference, which would have worked well if it had been applied in 2016. This is done by combining trend measures of previous election and respondent-allocated flows, with Ipsos and ReachTEL providing the data for the latter.
The chart below shows how these trends pan out in the latest run of the aggregation. Both pollsters had the Coalition maintaining its mid-thirties share from the election until around the middle of last year, when it rose to the low forties. With the major parties now accounting for barely three-quarters of the total vote, a change on this scale would, by itself, result in more than a full point of difference to the two-party total.
The impact of the new method on the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading is illustrated below, with the chart on the left showing how things would look if previous election preferences were still applied. The upshot is that BludgerTrack should be at least half a point less favourable for Labor than it was before, at least for as long as the recent pattern of respondent-allocated preference polling holds.
The second change relates to the leadership ratings measures, which until now made no effort to distinguish between the very substantial peculiarities of different pollsters. This meant its results were saying as much about the pollster that had reported most recently as they did about changes in the standing of the two leaders.
Unlike voting intention, leadership ratings cannot be measured against a real world benchmark. So the approach taken here is to treat Newspoll as the centre of gravity, and adjust the other pollsters by benchmarking them against a trend measure of Newspoll. These results are illustrated in the table below, which effectively shows how different a typical result from each pollster will be from a typical Newspoll.
| Essential | Ipsos | YouGov | Morgan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnbull | Satisified | +3.9% | +12.0% | +11.0% | -0.9% |
| Dissatisfied | -9.1% | -9.7% | -7.6% | -2.4% | |
| Net | +13.0% | +21.7% | +18.6% | +1.5% | |
| Shorten | Satisified | +0.9% | +4.8% | +10.0% | -3.8% |
| Dissatisfied | -9.3% | -1.9% | -8.1% | -0.4% | |
| Net | +10.2% | +6.7% | +18.1% | -3.4% | |
| Preferred | Turnbull | -3.4% | +5.5% | -7.5% | +5.7% |
| Shorten | -3.5% | +0.8% | -4.0% | +0.3% | |
| N | 30 | 15 | 5 | 2 |
This shows that both leaders, but Malcolm Turnbull especially, do much worse on Newspoll’s approval and disapproval ratings than they do from Essential, Ipsos and YouGov. Since these differences are now being corrected for, BludgerTrack will tend to record weaker net satisfaction results for both leaders, but especially for Turnbull.
This brings us to the latest BludgerTrack numbers, which as always are displayed in all their glory on the sidebar. Since the Essential poll is the only new data point of the last few weeks, a certain amount of caution is advised. While the Essential numbers were slightly better than the Coalition’s form late last year, more than half the 1.2% shift recorded in favour of the Coalition is down to the new preference method. It hasn’t made much difference to the seat projection, on which the Coalition gain one apiece in Queensland and South Australia, but lose one in Western Australia.
The impact of the new leadership ratings method on Malcolm Turnbull’s net satisfaction is muted by a set of Essential numbers which were, by the pollsters long-term standards, relatively good for him. However, Bill Shorten had a weak result from Essential, and is accordingly well down.
C@tmomma says: Tuesday, January 23, 2018 at 9:41 am
vic,
The reason there are so many tentacles to the Trump gang’s global project, is because he has been at it for decades!
********************************************************************
Yesterday political commentator, Sarah Kendzior , summed it all up on the Joy Reid show when she stated :
Why do people think he has surrounded himself with a lawyer goon squad for 40 years? Whether it’s Roy Cohn or Michael Cohen? The company he keeps include the American mafia, Russian mafia, arms traders, pedophiles, money launderers and other people involved in white collar crime. ….. a pattern of behavior that has been going on for Trump’s entire life.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/01/am-joy-panel-ridicules-scumbag-trump-for-having-to-employ-a-lawyer-goon-squad-to-keep-him-from-being-blackmailed/
Vic,
I was reading yesterday, via Jonathan Swan’s excellent Axios column, that Trump is attempting to elbow Wilbur Ross out of the way for someone younger and much more ruthless to take over the Trade negotiations. So they are leaking scuttlebut about how Ross falls asleep in meetings and only is good until 11am in the mornings (not that Trump would know because he doesn’t even start work until after 11am!)
And this is after Wilbur Ross was THE guy who saved Trump from Bankruptcy so many times last century by reorganising his finances and getting him new loans!
Trump is faithless. Which includes everyone from Melania to those people that work for him, from the lowliest sub-contractor to the highest member of the Trump Administration. He’s a monster!
Jared Kushner has amended his financial disclosure form 39 times. Why would that be?
https://twitter.com/TomthunkitsMind/status/955300084463341568
C@tmomma says: Tuesday, January 23, 2018 at 9:56 am
Trump is faithless. Which includes everyone from Melania to those people that work for him, from the lowliest sub-contractor to the highest member of the Trump Administration. He’s a monster!
******************************************************
Trump demands unswerving loyalty – but never gives it back. Its been reported today that his chief of staff John Kelly is now under threat of getting replaced and Trump has been reported as calling Kelly ” a nut job ” – exactly what he said about FBI chief James Comey when sacking him ….
C@t:
David Frum sums up Trump well in this interview promoting his new book:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1309064&playlistId=1.3769041&binId=1.810401&playlistPageNum=1&binPageNum=1#_gus&_gucid=&_gup=twitter&_gsc=U43FgVD
The other secret to Trump’s success is his voice. I have noticed that it is very ‘soft’, not harsh. He lulls people listening to him into a false sense of security that he has got their backs and that he has all the answers. So he can get away with saying the most obnoxious things, and people let him!
It reminds me of the voice your mother puts on when you have hurt yourself or been bullied at school as a child. The “Everything’s going to be all right, don’t worry!” voice.
Thanks for the link, ‘fess. I notice another headline,
‘Billionaire wealth rising 13% every year’
Unlike Workers wages.
PhoenixRed
And Trump’s crimes were well known. So it does beg the question. How did he get to sit in the biggest chair in the land?
c@t
As one GOP operative Rick Wilson always says. Everything Trump touches dies!!!
Temporary spending bills pass the House.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/trump-slams-democrats-as-third-day-of-government-shutdown-begins/2018/01/22/3a3eecf0-ff25-11e7-9d31-d72cf78dbeee_story.html?hpid=hp_rhp-banner-main_shutdownmon-0921am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&tidr=a_breakingnews&utm_term=.3fdf314eb3f1
Victoria @ #60 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 10:23 am
David Frum makes a good point in the link that ‘fess provided. He said that everyone that comes into Trump’s orbit to work for him ends up becoming ‘Mini Me Trumps’. They end up being ruthless, conniving liars like him! So, you could say, their soul dies.
C@t:
I saw a stat the other day wtte of 82% of wealth generated last year went to 1% of the population.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/cyberwarfare-russia-terrorism-british-army-general-nick-carter-us-france-nato-a8173136.html
For those interested in Putinography.
I can understand why someone posted a few days ago that this is mainly a blog about American politics.
Fess
And you can see why the stock market is doing so well. The rich are those playing with their increased wealth!
Victoria says: Tuesday, January 23, 2018 at 10:21 am
PhoenixRed
And Trump’s crimes were well known. So it does beg the question. How did he get to sit in the biggest chair in the land?
*******************************************
Everyone even going back to Michael Moore – right up to Michael Wolff – maintain that Trump never actually wanted to be President but wanted exposure for a new TV show – to wanting to be the most famous man in the world ….. but being the supreme con-artist that he has always been he managed to baffle enough people to vote for his brand of racist, white supremacy, promise them the world, politics……. and maybe throw in a foreign ‘intervention’ and a poor choice of Democrat candidate, he pulled it off …… but is said to hate what he inherited and having his private world of sloth and greed on the front page of US newspapers etc
Donald Trump Didn’t Want to Be President
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/01/michael-wolff-fire-and-fury-book-donald-trump.html
Lizzie
I know this frustrates you. You may not see it this way, but everything that is happening on the US and world stage is in fact guiding us right here at home, in so many areas.
It is impossible to look at what Turnbull and co are doing in every policy area, without seeing the hand of what is happening elsewhere.
As Boerwar rightly points out, getting sidetracked by changing the date, is really not where things are at.
lizzie:
You can’t blame people being interested in, and wanting to discuss the train wreck that is the Trump presidency rather than scroll by installment #746,987 in the electricity wars, or get drawn into the confected outrage over changing the date of Aus Day.
http://www.dw.com/en/nato-allies-clash-as-turkey-attacks-us-backed-kurds-in-syria/a-42262543
NATO allies clashing – not a surprise really, and certainly not the first time a large power has tried to crush a smaller power to garner kudos at home.
Flexing military muscle in the assault on the Kurdish YPG fighters in Syria will likely go down well among Turks, Pierini explained. “It helps immensely in ramping up the nationalist narrative at home,” he said. Erdogan has created a “huge operation to crush a somewhat small threat” which likely could have been resolved diplomatically, he added. But, sounding a note of warning, Pierini said the problem is that “nobody knows when and where it will end.”
In most of these cases the outcome is unpredictable no matter what the military planners want to happen.
Of course the effect on civilian life is likely to be typically brutal;
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/22/middleeast/mosul-survivors-intl/index.html
victoria and confessions
Yes, there are other subjects just as scrollworthy. Maybe it’s just that the more frequent posters are also the most enthusiastic followers of Trumpism. 🙂
C@tmomma:
I’ve long thought the key to both Trump and Abbott’s success was their willingness to claim – with complete confidence – that they *will* fix everything. Whereas most presidential/prime ministerial candidates will generally play it a lot safer and be careful with what they promise – it’s less “I will fix the economy” and more “to aid economic recovery, I will do x, y, and z” – both Trump and Abbott were quite happy to say, with absolute certainty, that they *will* stop the boats, they *will* build the wall, they *will* get back to surplus, they *will* defeat ISIS, they *will* bring in the best healthcare system ever, and so on.
And while those of us already predisposed to dislike these guys will just roll our eyes and not believe a word of it, I think for many in the general public, this is actually quite effective. Mostly because -IMO -people generally assume that if someone is making these claims, they have genuine reasons to believe they can follow through on it. Because otherwise they would be fucked once they win the election and don’t make good on all their fanciful promises, and surely they wouldn’t be so stupid as to put themselves in such a position, right? Right? Even if you don’t trust a word politicians say, you still trust that they have their own self-interest in mind.
Its not like promising you will legislate this or that – its a lot easier to backtrack, to just say circumstances have changed or “well, we don’t have the numbers to pass it thanks to those obstructionists in the other party”, whereas “we will fix the economy, no ifs or buts” doesn’t really have the same outs. So, a lot of people see a candidate making these claims and think, “Wow, they must know for sure that their plan is going to work if they can say this with such certainty!”
But, of course, as we saw with Abbott, and as we are currently seeing with Trump, while this may be an effective strategy for winning government, its a dreadful strategy for keeping it. Because once they are the man (or woman) in charge and the realities of office set in, it becomes obvious that they *didn’t* have any idea how to achieve the things they said they would do, and they are exposed for the shallow conmen that they are. Abbott crashed and burned once this became clear, and all that’s keeping Trump afloat so far is that a genuinely improving economy (which is mostly thanks to Obama, but the person currently in charge always gets the kudos or blame for this stuff.)
And like Abbott, Trump is continually refusing to admit that he reneging on his promises and isn’t achieving the things he said he will, instead trying to create his own reality through sheer force of will. This tactic went terribly for Abbott, and almost certainly will for Trump too.
Confessions @ #69 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 10:39 am
Not to mention the fact that I have detected that Turnbull is now attempting to mimic the Trump Presidency with his increased reliance on ‘Truthiness’, gimmickry and Reality TV-like stunts and social media postings. Like that juvenile Reservoir Dogs-esque ‘Squad’ photo with Abe the other day and his photo op at the aquarium with the tropical fish and the coral yesterday (while the real Barrier Reef dies on the vine away from the cameras.
So what we are watching is government by the Establishment Elite, for the Establishment Elite. And Donald Trump is the fulcrum around which all else in the world is swinging right now.
Of course, therefore, it is almost our duty to keep a watching brief over it! All else is just Mickey Mouse and Disneyland in comparison.
If you care about the Environment. If you care about Immigration and Refugees. If you care about Workers’ Pay and Conditions. Then you have to follow Trump!
Lizzie
What c@t said.
We have had a prime example of the crime wars here in Victoria.
Look at what Turnbull, Dutton and co are doing yet again undermining our state govt and the independence of the judiciary. A very Trumpian thing to do
I don’t question the Turnbull/Trump similarities. After all, they are both RW.
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/370171-trump-imposes-30-tariffs-on-solar-panel-imports#.WmZ2ppPH93k.twitter
http://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/will-of-people-will-ensure-australia-day-change-jackie-huggins/9351652
Full transcript available.
Lizzie,
Case in point. That CSG Gas Field pic you posted. It is all of a piece with Trump and the Establishment Elite’s attack on the Environment. Just exploit the bloody thing and to hell with the consequences for the bush and the Firies!
And Pegasus is still fiddling with #ChangetheDate while the globe is burning.
I’ve just read one of the cleverest near-futurist raves I’ve encountered – by one of my favourite authors, Charlie Stross. It seems worth posting here . I particularly like the idea of Corporations as being slow AIs.
lizzie @ #76 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 10:55 am
Which also aids and abets Trump’s other aim. To make the American people more reliant, again, on Fossil Fuels.
Confessions says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2018 at 10:39 am
lizzie:
You can’t blame people being interested in, and wanting to discuss the train wreck that is the Trump presidency rather than scroll by installment #746,987 in the electricity wars, or get drawn into the confected outrage over changing the date of Aus Day.
I count just three posts on energy wars on this thread, all by Lizzie.
lizzie
We live in a global capitalist market. As c@t said. Exploiting the environment is par for the course.
From recollection 12% of the world has a high living standard which includes Australia of course. We are one that benefits from resources being exploited from around the globe. My view is that with only 12% benefiting. the environment is already suffering greatly, and probably doomed in the long run.
lizzie @ #65 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 6:34 am
I think I have the song for it!
Scrolling, scrolling, scrolling, Rawhide!
https://youtu.be/RdR6MN2jKYs
One reason I like discussing Trump and US Politics here is because – particularly since the election of Trump, who almost all of us are on the same page about – it generally leads to pretty pleasant and good-natured conversations that provide a welcome break from all the negativity and sniping that tends to ferment during discussions on Aus issues. (And I fully admit that I am far from innocent in the latter.) I miss Sean Tisme/TBA for the same reason – he was such a convenient whipping boy that, whenever he turned up, all our differences would be forgotten as we spent the next few hours giggling at whatever he’s ranting about this time.
And its certainly a whole lot more interesting to read than the energy wars or the Labor/Green wars or the endless copy-pastes of certain individuals’ twitter feeds or the tedious updates on whatever pointless sports game happens to be airing today.
c@t
Many here get frustrated with Boerwar. From my perspective, it is because he is speaking the unvarnished truth. Yep. The Greens can continue with change the date rhetoric whilst the world burns.
don @ #82 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 11:00 am
Lizzie is becoming as obsessed as P1!
bemused and don
Bullshit to both of you. I have never engaged in the ‘energy wars’ between P1 and the rest. My concern is only the effect on the environment.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/hisense-or-no-sense-government-set-to-pay-millions-for-tennis-arena-naming-rights-20180122-h0mftg.html
Discuss: A waste of tax payers money? Money could be better spent on more pressing priorities such as homelessness?
Good Morning
“Confected Outrage” at Change the Date. Wow that is some real put down of the views of Indigenous people you don’t agree with.
The Indigenous people that have told talked about their views on changing the date is not “confected outrage”. Way to dismiss years of Invasion Day protests.
The only thing that has changed is that the Greens supported this. Like the Greens or not to call the Change the Date movement “confected outrage” is in fact racist.
I disagree with those saying change the date is not important. I don’t dismiss the validity of the viewpoint.
Take off your partisan political viewpoint and look at what is being said.
You don’t have to agree. However using terms like “confected outrage” as if those Indigenous people who have expressed a view do not have a valid view is appalling to me.
The reason I have the view of change the date is simple. We know many not all Indigenous people object to the date. Just like if someone had died in the family I would not throw a party of celebration dancing on their graves.
If you mean the Greens confected outrage then say so. However I think the outrage is that this is a debate. I think we should respect the views of those who object even if it is only ten people.
Why? Its not hard to change the date. Especially if you use it to campaign for a Republic.
Have your view but don’t dismiss the views of those Indigenous people that have truly voiced their reasons for objecting to January 26 as “confected outrage”.
don @ #82 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 11:00 am
He he. I was just about to make a similar comment, except that the posts I was going to point out were by C@t!
Seems we are no longer needed here, don! 🙂
lizzie @ #88 Tuesday, January 23rd, 2018 – 11:07 am
Yes, you are more subtle than most. 😉
And how many times has lizzie participated in the electricity wars in the past 3 months?
As opposed to yourself?
guytaur:
It is indeed confected outrage because I’ve not seen either you or pegasus mention changing the date until Di Natale came out with it last week.
Lizzie
I too care about the environment. And of course everything that occurs in this space relates to economics and capitalism.
One local point of interest at present relates to what is being proposed in South Australia regarding manufacture of electric cars etc. something very interesting to watch and see what transpires
For some time I have had deliveries from Colesworths Online.
One of the drivers, some months ago told me of his lovely, employed in the blood collection service of a local hospita, “partner”.
Time went by and “Herb” told me of his decision to part with his girl friend. This was a mutual arrangement brought about by the lady in question wanting children and Herb taking the opposite position.
Last week Herb turned up with my goodies from Colesworths. Herb, now a changed (appearance) man. Hair to the shoulders and looking every inch a man of the world/man about town with the obligatory nonchalant swagger of the unattached male. (Astute Poll Bludgers will recognise the last sentence for what it is – complete bullshit).
However during conversation, when I inquired about his ex girlfriend, Herb told me the of the soul destroying activity of the young lady as a result of the break up.
Herb assures me this is true. “She took the cat” he said bravely with nary a quiver to the lower lip, tear in the eye or any other physical sign of the immense burden he was carrying.
I didn’t have the heart to detain him further as he took his trolley and bravely sallied back to continue deliveries in his refrigerated van.
Such bravery, such a carefree attitude, such a …………………………………………..(insert adjective). I have already told him he is as dumb as ……………………………….
As usual, I am grateful to William and BK for their continuing work, which, on occasion, enables me to be amazed, delighted, confused and peed off at my fellows.
☮ ✌ and a fresh ☕ of coffee.
E & OE
The intolerance of differing views about a topical issue, with Australia Day imminent, continues to be displayed by a hard-core and dominant minority here.
As a matter of fact, I don’t understand all the technical arguments about kwH (or whatever), so I avoid reading them and for that reason have had P1 blocked for months.
Confessions says:
Tuesday, January 23, 2018 at 11:11 am
I count just three posts on energy wars on this thread, all by Lizzie.
And how many times has lizzie participated in the electricity wars in the past 3 months?
As opposed to yourself?
_______________
I have no idea. Why don’t you go and do your own research?
I’ve finished all my examinations, I have no wish to start again at your behest.
It’s getting hot in the Philippines as Mayon puts on a light show.
Let’s hope this is all they get.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-22/philippines-mayon-volcano-alert-level-raised/9350686