Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No sign of seasonal goodwill extending to our political leaders, both of whom score declining approval ratings in the first federal poll for the year.

The New Year poll drought has been brought to an end by Essential Research, which will henceforth be conducting fortnightly polls, dispensing with its long establishing practice of polling weekly and publishing two-week rolling averages. As related by The Guardian, the poll has Labor’s lead unchanged on the final poll last year at 53-47 – as usual, primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today. Both leaders’ personal ratings have weakened: Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 45%, Bill Shorten is down four on approval to 32% and up four disapproval to 49%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 42-28 to 42-25.

Other findings: 53% support a tax on sugar-sweetened drinks, with 38% opposed; 44% support and 29% oppose “Australia becoming a republic with an Australian head of state”, which is all but identical to when the same question was asked a year ago (44% and 30%); and society is widely seen as going to pot, with crime perceived as on the rise across all categories, regardless of what the official statistics might say.

UPDATE: The primary votes are Coalition 37% (steady), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady), One Nation 6% (down one). Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,426 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Turnbull announces that Hobart is the next ‘City Deal location’ …

    In other terms more infrastructure money moved to Liberal govt states.

  3. CT

    Look at that smile of Turnbull’s. Looks Rictus. Or a shark grinning.

    Now he has stopped smiling.

    Damn you gotta be quick with live tv

  4. political_alert: Shadow Minister for Employment & Workplace Relations @BOConnorMP will hold a doorstop to discuss wage stagnation following new figures from the Department of Jobs & Small Business at 12:30pm, Melbourne #auspol

  6. Ctar1

    Without wishing to besmirch the Tasmanians, what can the Fed govt offer Hobart?

    Sounds like an attempt to prop up Hodgeman.

  7. Maybe we should have ‘Australian National Whinge About Whatever Day’ and just declare it individually as a day off whenever the working person decides.

  8. “I’d keep it as recognition of it as the first settlement invasion but no citizenship ceremonies.”

    26 January might be fine for NSW to mark as Sydney’s foundation day, but it doesn’t have any use outside that state I think. Melbourne was founded (without authorisation) from Tasmania, for example, with little connection with what was happening in NSW at the time.

    That’s another reason it’s never been that good as a national day, it’s basically Sydney’s birthday. If you label that date as the national day then you’re discounting both the existing Aboriginal culture and the separate establishment of other Australian cities.

  9. Golly

    You mean its a common narrative of Labor members who are rewriting history.

    These same people blame the Greens not Abbott for climate policies failing.

    In doing so not recognising the great work of the Gillard government.

    The hate campaign and the wrecker wrecking a solution that worked.

    All Labor has to do is redo the Medicare strategy. Bring back the ETS. Bye bye climate denials wreckers.

  10. Trump’s America. Reminds me of the days of Vanstone, Ruddock etc.

    Niraj WarikooVerified account@nwarikoo
    11h11 hours ago
    After years living in the U.S. for 30 years, a 39-year-old immigrant in metro Detroit was deported this morning to Mexico. Escorted by ICE agents, he said bye to wife and 2 kids before boarding. He was brought to US from Mexico when he was 10-yrs-old, too old to qualify for DACA: – at Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport (DTW)

    :large

  11. IoM

    Yep. Money for a bit of roads, water, sewerage, power and fast broadband spent on Tas govt owned land that they can hock off as ‘Building ready’ will be the aim.

  13. Xoanon @ #80 Tuesday, January 16th, 2018 – 9:46 am

    I think a good approach with Australia Day would be to move it to a date with no existing significance. If a national day is a day for people coming together, then why not choose a date that can develop its own characteristics rather than referring to a specific event?

    One option I’ve seen mentioned is co-opting Wattle Day on 1 September, which has merit.

    I think the Change the Date proponents should now select an actual date and start pushing it as the alternative, with ceremonies and celebrations held by councils that day.

    I liked Wattle Day, till Howard aped Sir William Deane who in genuine spirit of the country wore a sprig of wattle at the ceremony for the Australians killed in a flood in Switzerland. Howard made it cheap and false, and plastic, and all about him.

    And then some boffin decided to shift it, Wattle Day, from Aug 1 to Sep 1, to coincide with spring, an artificial northern season. Nobody told the wattles.

  17. davpope: I don’t want to #changethedate so much as #changetheday. I want truth, reconciliation and a treaty, so any national day properly reflects the interwoven stories of transportation & exile, invasion, dispossession and survival. pic.twitter.com/FeQft3QRqa

  18. In other terms more infrastructure money moved to Liberal govt states.

    Liberal states to get more money, Labor states to be bashed over whatever issue can be beaten up – wimpy renewable electrons infecting the power network, “African Gangs”, whatever… If NSW had a Labor Government, Turnbull would be going to town bashing it over trains.

  19. Xoanon guytaur

    Could rename it Sydney day and leave it as a holiday like colombus day. But would be easier to leave as is move citizenship ceremonies to another national day.

    White bogan neo Nazis are getting their hooks into it as they are the flag which is helpful in its own way.

  20. As in many things, NZ does it better. Their national day is Waitangi Day, named after Waitangi where the Treaty of Waitangi was first signed. Ceremonies take place each year on 6 February to celebrate the signing of the treaty, New Zealand’s founding document, on that date in 1840.

  21. NeilMcMahon: You can’t blame someone like Kyrgios for complaining about media coverage when this trivia happens at a press conference and he gets this headline as a result. pic.twitter.com/YceubBZfVT


  23. Confessions

    It is probably a VERY good thing that Trump is playing golf. If he is as unpredictable and bonkers as the media suggests (I have my doubts) it is much better he is out of doing harms way on a gold course.

  24. Guytaur

    On that point the post match interview with Daria Gavrilova was the most patronised load of 7 promo for My Kitchen Rules and the “Russian team” which to her credit Gavrilova called fake.

  26. The Abbott/Turnbull government is one step away from returning Australia to the last term of the Howard government and the LNP’s underlying agenda (pun).
    With the polls being just about as good as it gets for Labor, getting and staying in government should be the only focus.
    Anything that negates this objective (removing the LNP) is to be avoided. Australians believed Howard!
    Its unfortunate that issues like refugees, boats, racism, greens, Australia Day, republicanism, jobs, regionalism, migration or religious beliefs will all be used by the LNP to maintain power. The LNP hate.
    The ME win was fantastic.
    Labor needs to be in government to undo the many positions that Howard put us in and therefore can put in place governance that many of the progressives see as beneficial.
    At this stage, any distraction is an impediment to Labor gaining government at the next election.

  27. I think I probably had relatives where were in or around Waitangi at the time of the treaty.

    Amongst the very earliest settlers. Arrived in NZ (or one of them did) somewhere between 1826 and 1840 so assume about 1830 – from Sydney. Married the daughter of a Maori Chieftan – apparently that was pretty common practice. I suspect (am pretty certain) that Mother in Australia did NOT approve.

  28. Fess

    Remember Clive Palmer took every opportunity to state that Murdoch’s wife at time Wendy Deng, was a Chinese Spy. He obviously knew about it through his many dealings.

  29. I am not the crying type. And I did not expect to shed a tear over the death of Dolores O’Riordan. I liked the music, know all the songs and even knew she was the same age as me – but I own none of her albums, did not go to any concerts and did not consider myself a huge fan.

    Perhaps the Cranberries popularity tested my alternative bent.

    I was playing her songs on Youtube this morning whilst doing some housework and noticed my 5yo staring at the computer screen, motionless, song after song. She was transfixed by the voice, mesmerised by the face like so many of us were.

    Both voice and face are imprinted in my mind whilst so many other memories of the mid 90’s are faded or forgotten.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zz-DJr1Qs54

  30. Golly

    Australia Day is like the apology for the LNP. Voters see it as part of a smorgasbord of inequality.

    Its not a distraction to Labor winning government. Its part of the narrative of the LNP holding Australia back while it does everything for its mates in the big end of town. On social issues by a dinosaur mob holding progress back. They can;t even get the symbolic change done let alone real tackling of closing the inequality gap between First People and the rest of us.

  31. daretotread @ #123 Tuesday, January 16th, 2018 – 10:39 am

    It is probably a VERY good thing that Trump is playing golf.

    Excellent point. It seems we have a 25% chance of Trump being on a golf course when North Korea launches their strike. Trump won’t want to interrupt his golf game for something so trivial, so we have about a 25% chance of averting WWIII.

    Perhaps DTT is not as silly as everyone thinks she is? 🙂

  32. https://www.welcometocountry.org/australia-day-debate-echoes-hatred-from-ssm-vote/

    It is not long now until Australia Day and once again the debate over changing the date is at an all time high.

    The calls to end Australia Day celebrations being held on January 26th (Invasion Day) are once again fueling extreme levels of online hatred towards Indigenous people in Australia. As each year passes more and more Indigenous people are beginning to question and demand change over this date.

    This year has seen even more momentum after Triple J’s hottest 100 decided to move their countdown away from Jan 26th. Also this week, we have seen the emergence of the Save Australia Day Campaign headed by Mark Latham and his token Aboriginal side kick Jacinta Price.

    Last year, before the SSM vote there were serious concerns about the effect the Yes and No campaigns would have on the LGTB community. These concerns became reality with a number of incidents occurring over the hate generated during the debates online.

    We are now once again seeing the same level of hatred but this time aimed towards Indigenous people in Australia. But what is different this time is that there is no vote just around the corner. Those of us who are calling for change are shouting at a totalitarian government who sees the issue as one of the nations foundations, something that would change the shape and future direction of the nation.

    So now we are at this disgusting standstill and the hatred spewing from non-Indigenous Australia is only serving to divide us and Isolate our people even further. We are seeing racist comments that tell us to leave Australia and even questioning our Identity by referring to lighter skin Aboriginal people as half cast. Some might argue that our protests and calls of no pride in genocide are offensive but this is merely a case of truth telling.

    So where is the concern for the damage this debate is doing to our people. There is no vote that will end the debate just around the corner. We are just going round and round in circles. Each year our voice grows louder but we are pushed even further apart.

    After the SSM vote, the hashtag #LoveWins went viral.

    Where is the love or even basic respect for Indigenous people in Australia?

  36. https://www.getup.org.au/campaigns/racial-justice/invasion-day-2017/let-s-talk-about-january-26?t=0RpZqu70w

    For some people January 26th is called ‘Australia Day’.

    But for First Nations people and their allies, it is called something else – Survival Day, Invasion Day – and is a day of mourning.

    When we celebrate a national holiday on the anniversary of colonisation, we ignore our true history, and the continued pain, suffering and trauma inflicted on First Nations people.

    The GetUp community is fighting for a fair and just Australia – and to celebrate January 26 would be at odds with that vision.

    Deputy Director of the GetUp Board and proud Torres Strait Islander woman, Carla McCrath, took some time out to explain exactly why January 26 is a problem and why we should #changethedate.

  40. Well Player I am not as silly as you that is for sure.

    However putting on a rational and non confrontational hat for a moment, Trump spending time at the golf course is pretty much like Bush cutting scrub on his ranch. It seems to suggest they have been sidelined so the grownups can run the country.

    The problem with BOTH men is their choice of adult. Evil Dick Cheney for Bush and the military triumvirate for Trump.

    Since you do not keep up with the news the flashpoint in Syria is building up again.

    It was very, very high in 2016 when the Russians and yanks were lobbing bombs on allies and when Clinton yelled for a no fly zone (code for conflict with Russia).

    It calmed down and then had a slight uptick when Trump launched his missiles then really took a turn for the better (for the Syrians) in July 2017 (thanks let it be said to TRUMP).

    However the reports in the last few days are worrying with Russia accusing US or training Daesh terrorists and Turkey angry about the arming of the Kurds. So I am back on the alert again.

  41. RichardDiNatale: Australia has never undertaken a national reconciliation process which would force us & our governments to acknowledge the history of injustice imposed on Aboriginal people and its current day consequences.

    Jan 26 is a constant reminder. #changethedate greens.org.au/change-the-date

  42. Simon Katich @ #139 Tuesday, January 16th, 2018 – 7:03 am

    BiGD
    Yes, and she has a new 5yo fan.

    As for sad passing and unique voices…. everybody hurts sometimes.

    Yes, there’s some magic in the past.

    Last time I was home I had some long chats with my eldest nephew, now 22.

    Whilst talking we would bring up songs on youtube, he flipped when I started playing Bjork.

  46. EdKrassen: BREAKING: Haiti just had an emergency high court session resulting in an agreement to unseal & release documents relating to Jean-Claude ‘Baby Doc’ Duvalier’s indictments for money laundering through Trump Tower. Looks like Trump will regret insulting Haiti!
    KARMA’s a B*tch!

  47. What are the most important things indigenous Aussies want. List each one and set date for each to be achieved. Things such as health, housing and education ( if they are on the list ) can be addressed if government provides adequate resources through existing agencies.
    The relationship with land should be addressed via research like the Uluru statement, something the present govt is incapable of processing.
    When something like this is set and legislated through our parliament, then the matter of when we celebrate Australia day should be looked at.
    Changing the day without addressing these issues will achieve nothing IMO

  49. RichardDiNatale: Australia has never undertaken a national reconciliation process which would force us & our governments to acknowledge the history of injustice imposed on Aboriginal people and its current day consequences.

    Jan 26 is a constant reminder. #changethedate greens.org.au/change-the-date

    The harbour city’s Australia Day celebrations should be moved from January 26, according to independent MP for Sydney Alex Greenwich, who says he felt uncomfortable on the date last year.

    These read like we want to change the date so we don’t have to do anything to face the issue.

  50. Mr ED

    It snot we have to do one and not the other. We can do both. If the LNP can’t get their heads around why Jan 26 has such objection then don’t expect them to address all the substantial issues they are raising to excuse not making changes.

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