Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

No sign of seasonal goodwill extending to our political leaders, both of whom score declining approval ratings in the first federal poll for the year.

The New Year poll drought has been brought to an end by Essential Research, which will henceforth be conducting fortnightly polls, dispensing with its long establishing practice of polling weekly and publishing two-week rolling averages. As related by The Guardian, the poll has Labor’s lead unchanged on the final poll last year at 53-47 – as usual, primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today. Both leaders’ personal ratings have weakened: Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 45%, Bill Shorten is down four on approval to 32% and up four disapproval to 49%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 42-28 to 42-25.

Other findings: 53% support a tax on sugar-sweetened drinks, with 38% opposed; 44% support and 29% oppose “Australia becoming a republic with an Australian head of state”, which is all but identical to when the same question was asked a year ago (44% and 30%); and society is widely seen as going to pot, with crime perceived as on the rise across all categories, regardless of what the official statistics might say.

UPDATE: The primary votes are Coalition 37% (steady), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady), One Nation 6% (down one). Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,426 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Changing the date of Aust Day would achieve nothing in the long run to my way of thinking.

    I quite agree the first Australians should be aggrieved about the celebration BUT like most symbolic changes, the symbolism is effective for a short period of time then the underlying issues rear up and they are the things that need to be addressed.

    It is sad DiNatale has become so vocal – he always comes across as a preppie trying to dictate to ‘lesser mortals’

  3. It’s true the arrival at BB was prior to the 26th, but no one much got off the boats.

    Phillip decided it was a crap place to start a colony so went looking for a better bet.

    Jan 26 was when Phillip planted the flag and took possession of the land. That’s the important date as both the start of the non-aboriginal Australia and the dispossession of those already here. They are two intertwined threads of history. It is spurious and frankly childish to think that we can somehow just imagine this date isn’t the beginning of our combined story and so should be commemorated.

    What we need to do is continue the process of writing the Aboriginal part of the story back in more completely and not in some tokenistic manner, but with real action.

    But under these black bashing maggots of course that ain’t going to happen.

  6. lizzie

    I’m sorry that Labor is unwilling to consider a change to Australia Day. Is this because the Greens are pushing for it

    I doubt that changing the day or moving it will make much difference.

    Any day that is nominated that has the has any hint of white settlement or the establishment of the existing federation will just draw the same complaints/protests.

  7. Fess

    Agree with David Frum. Trump is a narcissistic deviant and his brain is affected whether by age related deterioration or substance abuse.

    But I am certain he is not as stupid as he makes out to be. There is a method to his madness and a pattern to his behaviour. It is obvious for anyone to see. He didn’t get to become President by being a bumbling idiot, and from what I have gleaned so far, not very willing to give up his power just yet.

  8. C@tmomma @ #40 Tuesday, January 16th, 2018 – 5:02 am

    Ash Ghebranious gets to the essence of the matter with facts:

    AshGhebranious
    ‏

    @AshGhebranious
    13h13 hours ago
    More
    Lets stop rewriting history. The first fleet first landed at Botany Bay between the 18th and 20th of January. They even sent scouts out to explore further inland. The landing on the 26th was their SECOND landing. Not their first. Debate that one Truffles.

    So, I agree with him. If you want to change Australia Day, make it the 18th of January. Plus let it reflect the full history and give all Australians, Indigenous and otherwise, buy-in.

    Australia is and should be more than the European invasion of New South Wales.

    Federation brought together the Colonies and most of the people into one entity.

    But I believe it was only when we recognised all Australians by recognising the indigenous people that we can claim to have become a Country!

    For me that’s the marker in time that should be celebrated as a Nation. 🙂

  10. Good Morning

    Jen.

    I disagree. I think its great that the Greens are pushing the change the date. Its not the solution to everything anymore than the apology was.

    Its a symbolic change that is easy to do about a date that is clearly divisive. This on a day that is supposed to bring the country together.

    Part of the reason you know its the right way to go is the squealing from the LNP.

    Its also good to see the Greens doing something that our First people want changed.
    We know this because of all those invasion day groups that meet on that date.

    We also know the changing the symbol gave momentum to the reconciliation process. With that stalled bringing this to the forefront could bring momentum back to that.

    I don’t expect any progress on substantive issues while the right controls the LNP. So forcing this symbolic change is worth doing to help when Labor is in government.

  14. The people of Nieuw Holland are bemused by the argy bargy over the celebration of Australia NSW Day . Or as we used to call NSW “The Blank Bit” .

  15. What we need to do is continue the process of writing the Aboriginal part of the story back in more completely and not in some tokenistic manner, but with real action.

    Which is exactly why I said that all parties involved in what needs to be the new National Day (maybe the day we become a Republic then?), need to sit down together and craft what it should represent.

  16. But seriously, the date of Australia Day is a third or fourth order issue. The only obvious alternative, New Years Day to celebrate Federation, would be lost in the Christmas-New Year celebrations. The date the Parliament of Australia first sat (May 9, 1901)? As young people might say, “bor-ing”. Anzac Day? That has its own issues and in any case is too solemn a day in the events it commemorates for a celebration.

    We need to concentrate on matters that would motivate people to change their vote from last time, and these are the bread and butter issues the Liberals want to distract us from. We need to undo the valndalism of Howard/Costello and Abbott/Turnbull.

    Maybe some time in the future, a date for a national celebration will present itself, but the events that might give rise to such a date would probably not be good to live through.

  17. poroti @ #64 Tuesday, January 16th, 2018 – 9:23 am

    The people of Nieuw Holland are bemused by the argy bargy over the celebration of Australia NSW Day . Or as we used to call NSW “The Blank Bit” .

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    If you have read the history, Abel Tasman did not discover the Eastern bit of mainland Australia because he was an effin’ hopeless navigator!

  18. As the polls show the racism propagated by the right against the Andrews Government has got the LNP nowhere in the polling I think the Greens pushing the change the date is opportune.

    The more the LNP scream against a change the date the more on the nose with voters they will get. Just like with the apology.

    Add to that possible interest rate rises this year along with already falling living standards due to flat wage growth and cuts to social security hitting the poor who do vote. I think its bye bye LNP and that the polls will get worse not better as the symbolic and economic factors both will be felt to be against the LNP.

    Both also fall into line with Labor’s we need equality not inequality in this country.
    Mr Shorten can say he supports changing the date but wants to do more substantial change by tackling the inequality gap.

    I see this as win win for the progressives and lose lose for the LNP whose policies have increased not decreased inequality.

  19. Steve777 @ #66 Tuesday, January 16th, 2018 – 9:26 am

    But seriously, the date of Australia Day is a third or fourth order issue. The only obvious alternative, New Years Day to celebrate Federation, would be lost in the Christmas-New Year celebrations. The date the Parliament of Australia first sat (May 9, 1901)? As young people might say, “bor-ing”. Anzac Day? That has its own issues and in any case is too solemn a day in the events it commemorates for a celebration.

    We need to concentrate on matters that would motivate people to change their vote from last time, and these are the bread and butter issues the Liberals want to distract us from. We need to undo the valndalism of Howard/Costello and Abbott/Turnbull.

    Maybe some time in the future, a date for a national celebration will present itself, but the events that might give rise to such a date would probably not be good to live through.

    As I just suggested, the date we become a Republic seems like a good time to turn the page on our Colonial past. So it’s a commemoration of a non-violent act as well!

  20. Steve

    The Greens themselves say they don’t expect the date to change this year or the next.

    I think we will get a change along with the new Republic Labor is going for.

    We might call it Australia day or we may call it Independence day as we form our new republic.

  22. Rossmcg

    It hit home this morning how much rain. Walked out to find what was an empty bucket yesterday morning is now a full bucket !

  23. Voice Endeavour @9:10 “It’s a positive social change, but Labor can’t advocate for it because they need some of the bogan vote.”

    That’s one way of putting it.

  24. C@tmomma

    Nah, he went around it as he foresaw a day when tribes of Abbotts , Bjelkes . Duttons and Morrisons would roam the land 🙂

  25. I have asked my wife (usually a good judge of what voters that aren’t PB tragics are thinking) when she would like Australia day to be. Her response is the most Australian thing I’ve heard in a while.

    First Friday in August. It’s way too long between Queens Birthday and Labor day, and public holidays should back up to a weekend.

  27. Its possible to walk and chew gum at the same time.

    It is possible to put Australia Day on a day that everyone can celebrate, recognise Aboriginal people in the constitution, enshrine the Uluru Statement/Proposal and improve the life of Aboriginal people at the same time.

  30. I think a good approach with Australia Day would be to move it to a date with no existing significance. If a national day is a day for people coming together, then why not choose a date that can develop its own characteristics rather than referring to a specific event?

    One option I’ve seen mentioned is co-opting Wattle Day on 1 September, which has merit.

    I think the Change the Date proponents should now select an actual date and start pushing it as the alternative, with ceremonies and celebrations held by councils that day.

  31. NWPinPDX: Inspired by #MLKJr, I have FAITH that we will see the Trump Administration exposed for all of the collusion, criminality and coercion it readily participated in.

    #MartinLutherKing #MLK50 #MLKJrDay #MartinLutherKingDay #MLKday #mlkquotes #resist #MuellerInvestigation pic.twitter.com/BYGhtny0Cp

  32. caseyconway_: I wish for more of the LGBTI community to be aware of how awful Australia Day is for us Indigenous people. twitter.com/sallyrugg/stat…
    sallyrugg: For everyone who (rightly) lamented how awful the postal survey was for LGBTIQ Australians, pls now think of First Nations people who have to listen to debate around Jan 26th and watch their trauma rendered inconvenient. Every year.

  33. C@tmomma @ #68 Tuesday, January 16th, 2018 – 5:26 am

    poroti @ #64 Tuesday, January 16th, 2018 – 9:23 am

    The people of Nieuw Holland are bemused by the argy bargy over the celebration of Australia NSW Day . Or as we used to call NSW “The Blank Bit” .

    <a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>

    If you have read the history, Abel Tasman did not discover the Eastern bit of mainland Australia because he was an effin’ hopeless navigator!

    I fail to see where navigation comes into play in relation to discovery.

    As for encountering new landmasses they had three choices turn left, turn right or go back.

    Navigation played a part when they wanted to return to a place.

    Remember these were the days when longitude was unable to be accurately determined and if you wanted to sail to an island in the middle of an ocean you sailed north or south to the island’s latitude and then sailed east or west until you hopefully bumped into it.

    Most of the time they would stay within sight of land as this gave the relative certainty of their location but exposed them to the danger of reefs.

  34. clairegcoleman: This is a map of Australia before we were invaded. Not empty, not a cultural wasteland. 7/ pic.twitter.com/0P91Jb7AFR

  35. Poroti,

    We all have to endure a lot less of the Abbotts, Duttons and Morrisons if we’d let you New Hollanders piss off back in 33 like you wanted to. The amount of Libs you send to Canberra is a real problem. We really should look at reversing our decision to not accept your referendum vote.

    Oh, and BTW can you take the Queenslanders with you 😉

  36. Ides of March @ #78 Tuesday, January 16th, 2018 – 5:42 am

    Its possible to walk and chew gum at the same time.

    It is possible to put Australia Day on a day that everyone can celebrate, recognise Aboriginal people in the constitution, enshrine the Uluru Statement/Proposal and improve the life of Aboriginal people at the same time.

    You could do the first three in an instant but the last one doesn’t have a quick fix!

  39. I think that the mere fact that there IS opposition to the current Australia day is a good reason to change it.

    You cannot have a national day that arouses anger.

    What day would you choose, and when.

    There is something good about a summer BBQ day – perhaps some time in February. The current date is very awkward because schools go back and you have a public holiday in the first week which is pretty silly.

    There is already too much happening in March, April and even May. May would be OK in Qld but a terrible time in Victoria and the ACT.

    There is no much happening in September and Labor day in October. I would avoid November because it would probably end up by being conflated with US thanksgiving.

    So maybe we
    1. keep it in January but make it say the 21st (or go back to the MONDAY) and the last day of school holidays.
    2. or the third week in February (avoids Easter) and Moomba
    3. Some time in September.

    Any thoughts?

  40. I would have thought all of that ‘bogans are stopping us being progressive’ s*it would have stopped with the ME vote result…

  41. dtt

    Minor quibble, in Victoria Australia Day is usually the last day of the school holidays.

    — which points to the fact that we need to remember that not all States observe the same holidays. For example, we thought the new AFL Grand Final holiday was silly but then discovered that SA has a holiday on basically the same day, so really all Victoria was doing was moving into line with them (it’s a long stretch between public holidays without it).

  42. zoomster

    Yes I agree. Most of the bogans don’t care what the date is. They will celebrate the day on the date it is no matter the date.

    Its the extremists who pretend they are just bogans that give them a bad name. See use of Australian flag during Cronulla riots as an example

  43. VE

    So the Greens go out, do all the hard work, and take all the criticism to get the issue to one with significant majority support.

    Then Labor swoop in when it’s already popular, make the change and claim all the credit.

    I think we can forget about the “claim all the credit” bit.

    The Greens would decide that the day decided on didn’t suit them and vote against it.

  44. The funny thing about Australia Day is that, until relatively recently, it wasn’t a big deal. It started to become so in the leadup to the Bicentenary, 30 years ago. It’s only 25 years since we have all agreed to celebrate it on the day rather than on the following Monday.

    When I was young (four-score and seven years ago – well, half a century or so anyway), there were no big celebrations or fireworks, it just seemed to be another holiday, for us kids the last Monday before having to go back to school. On the News, I recall seeing re-enactments of the landing at Sydney Cove, but these weren’t mass events. I don’t recall any of it being controversial. I think it was an Australian thing back then that our public occasions were dull as ditchwater, no razamatazz like those people we called ‘yanks’. There were probably citizenship ceremonies presided over by the local Mayor. In whatevever activities, the First Australians were barely mentioned, if at all.

    Most Australians just enjoyed a day off at the beach or a barbecue or a quiet day at home. For our family the significance of the day was that it was my eldest sister’s birthday.

  46. Barney

    “Remember these were the days when longitude was unable to be accurately determined and if you wanted to sail to an island in the middle of an ocean you sailed north or south to the island’s latitude and then sailed east or west until you hopefully bumped into it.”

    Or hopefully didn’t bump into it on a dark and storm night as quite a few Dutch ships did with what we now know as WA back in the day.

  48. Wattle day, 1st September is a good day for the republic Uluru statement and treaty and national day.

    1st day of spring, life begins anew, a new nation.

    26th too much like celebrating pearl harbour, making it a day of citizenship for newbies is just rubbing the original inhabitants faces in it.

    I’d keep it as recognition of it as the first settlement invasion but no citizenship ceremonies.

  49. Golly

    What the ME vote showed is that the whole Referendums fail because Australians don’t vote for them narrative is wrong.

    What it shows is Australians fail to pass politicians wishes on referendums.
    Thus the loss of the Republic vote which is where we got this narrative from the right on referendums. Trumpeted by Murdoch’s press.

    With division hyped to the max ME showed a referendum on the issue would have passed with ease.

    Zoomster is right to keep reminding of this. Its the right that wants us to think a Bill of Rights, Recognition, and other good issues would get defeated at a referendum.

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