The New Year poll drought has been brought to an end by Essential Research, which will henceforth be conducting fortnightly polls, dispensing with its long establishing practice of polling weekly and publishing two-week rolling averages. As related by The Guardian, the poll has Labor’s lead unchanged on the final poll last year at 53-47 – as usual, primary votes will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today. Both leaders’ personal ratings have weakened: Malcolm Turnbull is down three on approval to 38% and up one on disapproval to 45%, Bill Shorten is down four on approval to 32% and up four disapproval to 49%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 42-28 to 42-25.
Other findings: 53% support a tax on sugar-sweetened drinks, with 38% opposed; 44% support and 29% oppose “Australia becoming a republic with an Australian head of state”, which is all but identical to when the same question was asked a year ago (44% and 30%); and society is widely seen as going to pot, with crime perceived as on the rise across all categories, regardless of what the official statistics might say.
UPDATE: The primary votes are Coalition 37% (steady), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady), One Nation 6% (down one). Full report here.
Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
I just cannot understand why, when he hasn’t even been around, Bill Shorten’s Approval ratings went down and Disapproval went up!?! Plus, why Turnbull has an increased Better PM figure when he has been caught out being divisive about the African Gangs issue!?! I don’t get people sometimes.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Eryk Bagshaw shows why people shouldn’t expect pay to keep up with the cost of living any time soon.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-jobs-that-will-or-wont-be-getting-a-pay-rise-this-year-20180115-h0ii8u.html
Not a good day in court yesterday for anti-Islam activist Neil Erikson who admitted breaching court orders by failing to return a uniform to former employer.
http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/antiislam-activist-mistakes-koran-for-bible-in-court-appearance-20180115-h0ihwz.html
Inside the chaotic Sydney rail system. With lean goes fragility.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/all-of-a-sudden-everything-goes-crazy-behind-the-scenes-of-sydney-train-chaos-20180114-h0i8id.html
Trump’s head of Homeland Security has suggested that anyone who brands the US President a racist based on his immigration views must also say the same for Turnbull.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/if-donald-trump-is-racist-so-is-australia-and-malcolm-turnbull-us-homeland-security-chief-20180115-h0ie55.html
Australia’s major banks face a tougher grind in the year ahead, as charges for bad loans creep up from record lows and the lenders are put under the microscope of a royal commission according to Fitch Ratings.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/banks-bad-debt-charges-to-rise-in-2018-fitch-20180115-p4yyi1.html
Hooray!. This contributor agrees with what has frustrated me since high school about the type of examination for the compulsory English subject.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/focus-on-vce-english-essays-is-a-glitch-in-the-system-20180115-h0imwy.html
Channel Seven has attracted criticism for reporting on a meeting of far-right activists in Melbourne and interviewing one of the movement’s ringleaders, Blair Cottrell, while failing to mention Cottrell’s criminal history, which includes racial vilification. He has also expressed admiration for Hitler and claimed to have manipulated women “using violence and terror”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/15/channel-seven-under-fire-interview-far-right-activist-blair-cottrell
Cole Latimer explains how Victoria has a thin line between a well-functioning grid and failure.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/is-victorias-power-grid-prepared-for-a-heatwave-20180115-p4yyhx.html
Here are the findings of the latest essential poll.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/16/most-australians-want-sugar-tax-on-drinks-guardian-essential-poll
Two months after the Paradise Papers were published the ATO’s investigation of the data leak is already looking at 731 Australian taxpayers and 344 corporate entities.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/jan/15/paradise-papers-revealed-commoditisation-of-tax-evasion-australia
Recent attacks on Victorian judges have eroded confidence in the judiciary, threatening its independence and the rule of law, the Law Council of Australia has said. Dutton’s playing blinder!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/15/legal-body-says-rule-of-law-threatened-after-duttons-criticism-of-judiciary
The Government should be condemned for demonising poor and minority communities, writes Kate Hamley, who suggests a better approach to the issue of youth crime.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/what-african-gangs-the-youth-crime-scare-is-simply-class-warfare,11106
And John Passant says Turnbull and Dutton are Nazi enablers.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/dutton-and-turnbull-are-nazi-enablers,11105
Michael Pascoe moderates the scare about housing price drops.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/property/why-we-shouldnt-be-too-scared-of-any-house-price-drop-20180111-h0gu5u.html
The average cost of putting a child through private school in some capital cities has been forecast to top $500,000. How can one justify this expense? Google.
/national-affairs/education/private-school-education-to-crack-500000-barrier/news-story/6ab5b5eeb7973434685c1bd60b4c9b45
Climate politics in 2018: another guide for the perplexed. The author gives SA a big tick.
https://theconversation.com/climate-politics-in-2018-another-guide-for-the-perplexed-89970
Donald Trump is making America’s deficits great again.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/15/donald-trump-is-making-americas-deficits-great-again
Trucking giant Toll Group has called on Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to overhaul the industry with national safety rules to stop road deaths.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/toll-calls-on-prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-to-overhaul-national-truck-safety-rules-20180115-h0icxy.html
It took government contractor BAE Systems almost a year from the loss of a 1000-page security manual to update documentation on its reporting responsibilities to the department of parliamentary services
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/slow-reaction-to-loss-of-parliament-house-security-manual-revealed-20180115-h0ib66.html
According to unions and employee advocates slashing the company tax rate in Australia would not result in pay rises for ordinary workers – rather, it would just mean fatter dividends for shareholders.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/work/2018/01/15/walmart-corporate-tax-cuts/
The Minerals Council of Australia (MCA) delivered a masterclass in spin and corporate lobbying this week. It’s worth going through it in detail to see how industry groups are able to push their agendas regardless of facts — even those in their owned commissioned research. Rod Campbell from The Australia Institute reports.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/minerals-councils-masterclass-spin-corporate-lobbying/
Amanda Vanstone with a good contribution about Australia Day.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/this-australia-day-ill-be-looking-forward-not-backwards-20180112-h0hsoo.html
Gonorrhoea and syphilis cases are on the rise again in Melbourne, an analysis of sexually transmitted infection data has revealed. Researchers are not yet confident what is behind the outbreaks, but speculate that casual sex through online dating, and reduced fear of HIV, could be factors.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/back-to-the-80s-gonorrhoea-and-syphilis-are-resurging-in-melbourne-20180115-h0ih75.html
Jenna Price has a spit about emails.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/i-opened-3000-emails-this-morning-it-could-have-been-worse-actual-conversations-20180115-h0ib46.html
Tom Switzer tells us to ignore Trump’s ravings.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/while-donald-trumps-words-are-divisive-and-dangerous-his-actions-are-far-less-reckless-20180114-h0i9pi.html
Cartoon Corner
Two rippers from David Rowe. It’s good to have him back!
Cathy Wilcox and some international comparisons.
David Pope on the date for Australia Day.
And on the same subject is Jon Kudelka.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ee7040ade1735f113863812b5394465b
Pater Broelman with “slow TV”.
Here’s a good New York bookstore display.
And a few from Matt Golding.
Glen Le Lievre has a shithole moment.
Sean Leahy lines up Trump nicely.
Speaking of ‘fostering division and hatred’ in society. EJ Dionne, of The Washington Post, wrote a thoughtful opinion piece about the subject recently:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/we-could-be-a-much-better-country-trump-makes-it-impossible/2018/01/14/84bff6dc-f7d4-11e7-b34a-b85626af34ef_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-f%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.6d5c45cdeb6a
Is the position of mayor in local government an ‘office of profit under the Crown’?. This is now before theHigh Court in the case of Steve Martin, next in line to replace the Scot Jacqui Lambie.
The PHON candidate who could snag the seat if all the JLNs falter has put in a submission, arguing the case for the affirmative
http://www.hcourt.gov.au/assets/cases/c27-2017/18-1-15_Annotated_Subs_McCulloch.pdf
Morning all. Thanks BK. I think the fall in Shorten’s ratings may be a reflection of collateral damage he has taken from the actions of others in recent weeks – eg Feeney, and now Danby.
Regarding Victorian power, Yallorn is now the acid test of whether they will transition to a renewable mix. The permit expires in 2026. That is plenty of time to build a clean replacement, which is now also economic. There is a request to extend the permit to mine for ten years. All that will do is put off the new investment for ten years. I will be very dissappointed if Andrews caves in to it.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/15/victoria-may-extend-yallourn-coal-licence-despite-zero-emissions-pledge
I expected the Essential would be worse for the Libs and Shorten’s odd netsat makes me think they may have had a Lib friendly sample.
Whenever I see a photo of Parliament House with the fence around it, I think it’s a metaphor for the current government: closed off from the people it’s supposed to serve.
I wonder if invisibility has any influence on approval ratings other than downwards. For an increase, I reckon you need to be on the radar and doing things that are approved of, constantly. Not easy, in the face of strong negative messages from MSM et al.
I’m sorry that Labor is unwilling to consider a change to Australia Day. Is this because the Greens are pushing for it?
Itza, I have a vague memory of Abbott’s netsat improving whenever he managed to shut up.
I agree Lizzie, but the idea that there are more important indigenous issues is fair enough.
Question @ #11 Tuesday, January 16th, 2018 – 7:54 am
True, but then head-banging-on-wall stuff was Abbott. The huge approval for Turnbull was nothing more than a national sigh of relief Abbott was gone, so Turnbull really had nowhere to go but down, vacuous nonentity that he is.
Question
The Uluru Statement, for example?
It’s just that we seem to constantly refuse to tackle anything to do with Indigenous questions. Everything else is always ‘more important’.
Why not say that we are considering Australia Day? I like someone’s suggestion that the day of Federation would be more logical. Or the date we finally agree to a new Constitution that includes First Peoples.
lizzie @ #10 Tuesday, January 16th, 2018 – 7:52 am
Get Govt first, work towards a Republic, get rid of Queens Bday rubbish, then change the National Day. Slowly slowly catchy …
Today there is another articke highlighting what is going on (and wrong) with our transport infrastructure financing. Tolls have moved from a way of paying for what is needed to a private sector gouge of motorists when government will not provide what is needed. Meanwhile commuting times increase. Governments that fail to deal with this will deserve the electoral backlash they receive.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-16/road-tolls-boom-but-effect-on-traffic-congestion-up-for-debate/9320414
Bill has not been visible on holidays and is not necessarily or greatly memorable — he does a bit better when on the traps – one explanation for satisfaction poll
Itza Dream @8:08 Get Govt first, work towards a Republic, get rid of Queens Bday rubbish, then change the National Day. Slowly slowly catchy …
I think that’s that correct approach. Labor can’t do anything from opposition. Labor needs to persuade people who voted Liberal last time. The best way to do that is talk about stuff the Liberals don’t want to – health, eductaion, wages, energy&climate…
Steve777 @ #18 Tuesday, January 16th, 2018 – 8:14 am
and, that is to say, inequality.
ItzaDream @ #15 Tuesday, January 16th, 2018 – 4:08 am
Agree, with so many things needing to be done that are related to each other you need to structure the changes over time and that means focus on the next issue to be dealt with and don’t get distracted by future ones.
If you throw too much at people at one time you risk the WTF reaction with people easily scared by the perceived magnitude of the changes. 🙂
Get government first, start fixing the mess of the Howard (now Abbott/Turdball) years, set the country to rights on tax, infrastructure, education, environment and health policies, get real about indigenous disadvantage, then think about some identity politics stuff.
From the boss of the Liberal Party’s Menzies Institute:
Here’s one RWNJ not convinced by Turnbull and Frydenberg:
lizzie @ #10 Tuesday, January 16th, 2018 – 7:52 am
No, it’s because it’s a boutique issue best addressed once in government. People vote in governments based upon issues more important to them than that.
The Greens simply address these issues as a point of difference from Labor. If The Greens were running for government, as opposed to running to win a few Inner City seats from Labor, then they would have to have a suite of policies that addressed the needs of the many, not the few.
Catmomma
Australia Day is part of an essential high priority set of reforms well overdue in this country – esp if it is going to come of age and find its identity in this century. The Liberals are quite wrong in this regard. A persuasive, effective Labor party should be pressing for reforms – in constitution etc At least signal them as issue for public debate. At least it has addressed the treaty issue. Cringe politics can only go so far.
Morning all
BK
Thanks for today’s dawn patrol!!!
Plus, why Turnbull has an increased Better PM figure when he has been caught out being divisive about the African Gangs issue!?! I don’t get people sometimes.
https://youtu.be/8rh6qqsmxNs?t=15s
The 50 Shades of Red are playing the classic wedge on the Australia Day date.
You would think that they might have a vague interest in important things like construction workers and truckies dying more often as a result of Coalition ‘reforms’.
Nah.
The 50 Shades of Red are happy to smash the Shoppies around the ears.
But when it comes to killing workers, the 50 Shades of Red are in bed with the Coalition.
Why can’t our political class get their act together to plan for the long term?
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/cuba-begins-100-year-plan-protect-climate-change/
citizen @ #22 Tuesday, January 16th, 2018 – 8:23 am
Awkward is exactly the word
ItzaDream @ #30 Tuesday, January 16th, 2018 – 8:45 am
FAIL.
…. is exactly the word for any and all of the Govt ministry.
Cultural cringe from the ALP on the question of Invasion Day. Disappointing but not surprising.
Hmmmm
Will be interesting to hear how this is spun.
https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/why-were-100-cannabis-plants-left-under-police-guard-ng-b88714897z
The date of Australia Day doesn’t need to change.
In fact as far as recognition of Aboriginal dispossession there can be no better date than the date it started.
We simply have to make a greater (and serious) ongoing effort to recognise that the effects of that dispossession and the racism of colonisation continue to have on the descendants of those whose land we took in 1788.
This Jan 26th would be a great opportunity for the Government to implement the Uluru Statement stuff. That is if we didn’t have this government and this scumbag PM.
If we can simply get our heads around the dichotomy of what Australia Day means and use it to bring all of us together by using it each year to continue to correct some of our past wrongs it will be a day we can all celebrate. But that would require leadership, so basically we’re fucked.
Changing the Australia Day date always gets brought up just before it is that time of year again. Not surprised the Greens have gone with it now.
More people are feeling strongly that the date ought to change.
As with all politicians, the Greens are opportunistic.
My view is that 1st January which is date of Federation is the appropriate date to celebrate the nation. But of course it happens to already be a public holiday for New Years Day. So what to do to ensure we get don’t lose a public day?
This is good news from the aggregated Essential:
Mark ✊
@WorldOfMarkyD
Following Following @WorldOfMarkyD
state #Essential poll Oct-Dec 2017
ALP 41 (+2), Greens 13 (+1), Libs 29 (-3), Nats 4, PHON 7 (-1), others/independent 6 (-1)
ALP
57 (+3)
Libs
43 (-3)
if a fresh election was held
Labor
43 (+2) seats
Liberal Party/Nationals
16 (-2) seats
#WApol #AusPol
ratsak @ #34 Tuesday, January 16th, 2018 – 4:52 am
I can’t see that working, the dichotomy just creates division and the fantasy is much more attractive.
That’s the problem with our two National days, people get very upset and emotive when anyone tries to inject some reality into them.
ratsak
What you suggest would require real leadership. Something we don’t have here in Australia. Of course, we also don’t see it in the USA at present with orange cheeto in charge.
Yep. You could argue at moment we are basically f@@ked!!!
As I recall it the main opposition to the Gillard reforms of the Trucking industry came from truckies themselves.
Many independent truckies see themselves as the last bastion of individualism, lone heros who go about their work unflinchingly, with only themselves for company in the workplace.
They are in a constant subsistence battle – against greedy customers torturing them for the last dollar, against near-impossoble timetables, against unsympathetic banks, vicious police, RTA inspectors, and of course against the public (none of whom can either drive or appreciate what pressures truckies go through).
They have a voice: talk back radio fits their workplace and their mindset like a glove. The Hadley’s and (in his day) the John Laws’, as well as increasingly the late night ABC programs (not to mention Macca) cater to their whims and whinges, as well as playing far too much Country music.
Many are in debt they’ll never get out of. They have to cut corners to make ends meet occasionally.
And then along comes the Hated Bitch Gillard to tell them how to run their lives? Forget about that, mate.
The Tribunal was a perfect recipe for a right-wing uprising, and it was milked mercilessly by media identities who wouldn’t know an air brake from a steering wheel, with logistics companies who have enslaved the independents cheering them on from the sidelines.
Ash Ghebranious gets to the essence of the matter with facts:
AshGhebranious
@AshGhebranious
13h13 hours ago
More
Lets stop rewriting history. The first fleet first landed at Botany Bay between the 18th and 20th of January. They even sent scouts out to explore further inland. The landing on the 26th was their SECOND landing. Not their first. Debate that one Truffles.
So, I agree with him. If you want to change Australia Day, make it the 18th of January. Plus let it reflect the full history and give all Australians, Indigenous and otherwise, buy-in.
6am Perth report: 110mm since 9am yesterday. Second wettest day at this location since 1986, best was 115 last February.
Hasn’t rained for a few hours so that might be it.
Ain’t nature amazing.
The Australia Day issue to me highlights one of this country’s deepest wounds and for all the well-meant apologies, the fact that we continue to celebrate on invasion day, rubs in the lack of genuine care and respect for our Indigenous people.
Agree with Lizzie that Labor could at least consider the ethics and not knee-jerk just because the Greens support it.
Can understand the ‘slowly, slowly catchee monkey’ but it comes down to a matter of ethics , we need to show that we are not Lib lite (as some of my Lib friends call Bill Shorten) .
Have felt strongly about this since arriving here more than thirty years ago.
We need to walk the talk.
c@tmomma,
are you really that stupid?
ratsak @ #34 Tuesday, January 16th, 2018 – 8:52 am
So, the date is fixed. It is the day they came ashore. With guns, pox, syphilis and booze. Yeah right, the day is fixed.
Sorry, but cut the dispossession crap. Genocide is the word.
There is nothing unitary about Jan 26. We need another date for that.
Meanwhile lead singer of The Cranberries has died. I really liked her voice.
Sigh……
The Essential 53/47 result is historically about as good as it gets for Labor.
Shorten and Labor need to keep it there till the next election.
The ‘I’d vote Labor’ except ‘I can’t stand Shorten’ mentality is alive and well.
With the help of the now hopelessly disgraced journalistic job description and news ( very) limited plus the haters (mad hatters), Shorten and Labor are seen in a positive manner by enough to secure government at an election.
The Greens dutiful play into the hands of the haters with policies re Australia Day, refugees or Adani to allow enough distraction for the LNP to remain hopeful.
Turnbull has the eligibility stuff and a tax friendly budget to hang on till whenever.
Getting rid of Turnbull and the haters is the only objective and should remain the only focus for Labor.
53/47 is a good place to be.
victoria:
In relation to what we were talking about the other day re distractions, I found this. An d check out the date it got tweeted.
The 50 Shades of Red are, as usual, going for the margins.
They do not give a flying f*ck for real workers who are struggling to make ends meet on constantly eroding real wages.
The 50 Shades of Red are essentially inner city wealthy elites doing guilt management and symbol dabbling.
Looking at ABC Melbourne Radio Twitter, the Vic Lib Minister in charge of law and order was interviewed this morning. Wonder if he was questioned about Labor asking Canberrra to contribute to a national data base.
Change the date is exactly an example of how the left benefits from having two parties.
It’s a positive social change, but Labor can’t advocate for it because they need some of the bogan vote.
So the Greens go out, do all the hard work, and take all the criticism to get the issue to one with significant majority support.
Then Labor swoop in when it’s already popular, make the change and claim all the credit.
The Greens are needed to make those early arguments.
Labor are needed to maintain the centrist vote, so that once the argument has been made, it can be passed.