ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong

The latest Bennelong by-election poll suggests John Alexander is set to hold on in the face of a solid swing to Labor.

The Sydney Morning Herald today has results from a ReachTEL poll for the Bennelong by-election, which credits John Alexander with a lead of 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences – a swing to Labor of nearly 7%. The primary votes, after allocating a forced response follow-up from the (unusually small) 2.4% who initially professed themselves undecided, are 41.3% for John Alexander (down 9.1% on the election), 36.3% for Kristina Keneally (up 7.8%), 7.5% for the Greens (down 1.6%) and 14.9% for the rest. The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 819. This is the second ReachTEL poll of the campaign, the first being conducted a month ago and showing Alexander leading 54-46. The other two published polls, a Galaxy poll at the start of the campaign and Newspoll this week, both had it at 50-50. Multiple reports suggest party polling has been nearer to ReachTEL’s findings.

For all the background you could want, my Bennelong by-election guide is now updated and much expanded.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,222 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Liberal in Bennelong”

Comments Page 17 of 25
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  1. ‘Wayne says:
    Friday, December 15, 2017 at 2:32 pm

    Is there any LNP supporters here please don’t be shame to admit it if there is’

    Zoidlord is a LNP supporter but he is too ashamed to admit it. He should be proud. But instead he is ashamed.

  2. Newsflash there is another poll out saying John Alexander will win tomorrow with a big swing to him and will kick that dirty corrupt KK to the gutter where she belongs……,

  3. I demand we have a national postal survey on whether or not religious organisations can continue to receive tax concessions !

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/easter-is-a-good-time-to-revisit-taxexempt-status-of-religious-organisations-20160323-gnpzjj.html

    …Religious organisations are among such special interest groups. Under Australian law, religious organisations are exempt from taxation. This exempts something of the order of $30 billion a year from taxation. The Catholic Church accounts for half of that. It is bigger than all the others combined, pulling in about $16 billion annually…

  5. Question for bush lawyers out there:

    “Is time spent on suspension from work, pending disciplinary suspension, classed as ‘service’?”

    Some facts:

    *Full Annual and sick leave are accrued while on suspension.

    * The employee is at management’s direction for 40 hours per week (must respond to any queries, invitations to meetings, requests for written submissions, emails, phone calls etc.) at management’s discretion, upon pain of further discipline for disobeying a management direction.

    * No leave is offered or may be taken by the employee while on suspension, including RDOs, Xmas, Easter, recreational etc. (this includes even when investigative staff and management are on leave)

  13. @Wayne
    Ides of March is a long time shy Barmy Armyer He is proud of the English cricket team. But he pretends that he is not.

  14. BREAKING: The archbishop of the archdiocese of Melbourne, Denis Hart, has just reiterated his comments from August that "the seal of the confessional" can't be broken, even if someone reports child sexual abuse in confession. Priest will not report to police, says Hart.— Melissa Davey (@MelissaLDavey) December 15, 2017

    Wayne and Boerwar both vote to support tax exemptions for these weird cultists.

  16. ShoebridgeMLC: Hearing reports that the Federal government has cut off toilet, shower and garbage services to the Aboriginal Tent embassy in Canberra. Retweet to tell @TurnbullMalcolm to turn it all back on. 40 years of no problems before now.

  18. I am a long time ‘sleeper’ LNP supporter who infiltrated the Labor party over twenty years ago by impersonating a candidate for an unwinnable seat.

    Bwahahaha

  23. I was polled last night (I’m in Bennelong, and the phone calls have been relentless).
    It was quite plainly a LNP poll.
    The questions they asked were the
    “who is good at managing the economy?”
    “who is good at stopping the boats?”
    “who is best at giving tax cuts?” or wtte
    The last one I passed.
    None about Medicare, education, schools, hospitals, social services, etc.
    Almost push polling
    Pathetic

  24. Let’s hope that Mitch Marsh does apply his first innings all-round batting skills to his first innings all-round bowling skills.

  27. Trog Sorrenson @ #795 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 3:17 pm

    Greens policy headline.

    Our plan to create Australia’s new clean economy with at least 90% renewables by 2030.

    Yep. Straight out of the 1980’s.
    https://greens.org.au/renew

    Gee. You missed this bit … I wonder why …

    A safe climate will require a return to an atmospheric concentration of 350 parts per million or lower of greenhouse gases (and CO2 equivalents).

    C02 hasn’t been at 350 PPM since the 1980s, and will not return to that level again for hundreds of years – if ever.

    How embarrassing.

  32. Wayne
    Maude L. secretly barracks for the Blue Tie Team. Likes to pretend not… but when in the cups, the truth will out. Loves the LNP. Really does. Just lacks the courage of the old convictions.

  34. Trog Sorrenson @ #789 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 3:10 pm

    Actually P1, it would be interesting to see what you consider to be the basic elements of good energy policy.
    Just a series of dot points will suffice. Also include a basic timeline, and put things in order of priority.

    Too easy:

    – A technology neutral ETS.
    – A gas reservation policy.
    – Starting now.

    Problem solved.

  39. LaTrioli: An aside – but it will matter to women without children (about whom it’s assumed they know or care nothing for kids) that it took @JuliaGillard to do what needed to be done to stand up for and protect Australian children. #RoyalCommission


  40. Boerwar says:
    Friday, December 15, 2017 at 3:28 pm

    Wayne
    frednk is a long time Shy Tory. He is proud of the LNP. But he pretends that he is not.

    I’ll put it this way; I understand why Fraser and Whitlam ended up the best of mates; but the modern Liberal party is not the Liberal party of the 80’s. In my view the modern Liberal parties goal is the raiding of treasury, nothing more and nothing less.

  41. It’s true, I love the LNP. Screw the poor; all money, concessions, and power to the already rich! They’ll save us all, with their richness.

  43. P1

    – A technology neutral ETS.

    Sounds like a Coalition talking point. Technology-neutral is just Libspeak for “Give coal a subsidy”. Why not just say “An ETS”.

    A gas reservation policy.

    Only slows the shift to renewables. Probably should be done for economic reasons other than saving the planet.

    Starting now.

    Yes. Only problem is that it is too little, too late. Better to greatly expand the RET.

  45. WB34: @MelissaLDavey Probably time for the Archbishop to be sacked. His disregard for for victims is disgraceful, and unacceptable for a leader of a charitable organisation. Time to end tax deductability for religious organisations that refuse to comply with Australian law

  48. guytaur @ #843 Friday, December 15th, 2017 – 3:52 pm

    WB34: @MelissaLDavey Probably time for the Archbishop to be sacked. His disregard for for victims is disgraceful, and unacceptable for a leader of a charitable organisation. Time to end tax deductability for religious organisations that refuse to comply with Australian law

    Are you with me on a postal survey re tax concessions guytaur ? …or are you with Wayne and Boerwar in support of tax concessions to these dangerous cultists.

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