The Australian has a Newspoll survey of Bennelong ahead of this Saturday’s by-election, and while the sample is a very modest 529, the results area a turn-up: a 50-50 tie on two-party preferred and a 39% tie on the primary vote, with the Greens on 9%, Australian Conservatives on 7%, the Christian Democratic Party on 2% and others on 4%. The two-party total would appear to be based on an allocation of at least 80% of Australian Conservatives and Christian Democratic Party preferences to the Liberals, presumably based on the latter’s preference flow in 2016. By contrast, The Australian reported last week that Liberal internal polling had them with a 54-46 lead.
Courtesy of The Guardian, the latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has Labor’s national two-party lead at 54-46, down from 55-45. However, the monthly leadership ratings record a substantial improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up four on approval to 41% and down five on disapproval to 44%, while Bill Shorten is up a point to 36% and down there to 45%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 40-28 to 42-28. Other questions related in The Guardian involve sexual harassment and energy policy. More on this, along with primary vote numbers, when Essential publishes its report later today.
YouGov-Forty Acres: 50-50
The relatively volatile YouGov series for Fifty Acres is at 50-50 this fortnight, after Labor recorded a rare 53-47 lead last time. As usual though, this is based on very strong respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. The primary votes look relatively normal this time, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition up two to 34%, the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down three to 8% and the rest down three to 13%. Other questions include a finding that 40% think Malcolm Turnbull should “stand down and let someone else take over”, compared with 39% who say he should remain.
IOM
The GOP holds the majority in both Houses of Congress.
If Jones wins in Alabama the Dems gain the Senate majority from what I understand.
The Landslide swing in Alabama is significant because it shows the Democrats will be able to beat the House gerrymander
GT
But if at the mid terms its 10 D and 5 R seats up for relection it wont make a big difference :).
Currently the US Senate is 52 R, 46 D and 2 Indys (Sanders and King who caucus with the D) giving 52-48.
If Jones beats Moore its 51-49. Wont change the majority.
Grimace – did you get my 51-49 to Alexander?
This article is good for following Alabama Race
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/5-things-watch-alabama-votes-senate-race-n828666?cid=public-rss_20171212
guytaur @ #844 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 6:22 am
In Thailand once I was with group of Thais which included a ladyboy.
In Thai you add Krab (male) or Kah (female) after sawasdee when you say hello.
I asked the ladyboy what she said and was told Krah which was a combination of the two.
I remember my introduction to Thai and my initial confusion with with the whole Krab/Kah greeting.
Initially I thought it was dependent on who you were speaking too, so I spent my first few weeks saying sawasdee krab to men and sawasdee kah to women. 🙂
Peta Credlin sending pointed messages to her Lib colleagues demanding to know when she will obtain her safe seat.
“Sam Dastyari was a formidable machine-man and an effective campaigner.
He’ll leave parliament for now, but you can take it from me, he won’t disappear.
He’ll return to the Labor fold because Sam Dastyari knows where the bodies are buried – and Labor protects its own. #Credlin”
Big D
Learning a different language is a whole different realm and so important to cutlure. The nuances are always what catch new beginners. 🙂
freedom2marry: “Family values” Republicans:
Won’t bake a cake.
Will vote for a child molester.
Got it.
#MAGA #MasterpieceCakeshop #OpenToAll #LicenseToDiscriminate #NoMoore #JesusWept #LGBTQ
Sam D will be the ideal candidate for Ambassador to China. Wouldn’t be any sillier than Sloppy Jo for Washington/Dolly Downer – George for London.
A pint of lager, a small Baileys and a Gin and Tonic thanks Barney
The Asians Aussies in Bennelong are not happy with Malcolm………
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bennelong-byelection-tone-of-sydneys-chinese-media-shifts-amid-foreign-interference-furore-20171212-h03i8e.html
Trump lashing out at Kirsten Gillibrand reveals he is ‘caged animal’ gripped by fear: Dan Rather
Legendary White House journalist and long-time CBS anchor Dan Rather explained the significance of President Donald Trump “lashing out” at Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY).
Trump’s polling weakness and the investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller have changed the political dynamics, which has resulted in a White House filled with fear.
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/trump-lashing-out-at-kirsten-gillibrand-reveals-he-is-caged-animal-gripped-by-fear-dan-rather/
Wow. Go Tasmania Labor!
michaelkoziol: The Labor opposition in Tasmania has announced it will ban pokies in pubs and clubs by 2023
A glaring lie in Trump’s sexual harassment tweetstorm could backfire on him spectacularly
Among President Donald Trump’s Twitter rant calling the twenty-plus women who’ve accused him of assaulting or harassing them liars hid a falsehood that may make the foundation of any legal action they take against the president.
As Colin Kalmbacher at LawNewz writes, Trump’s Tuesday morning assertion that media are touting accusations by women he “[doesn’t] know and/or have never met” is an easily-demonstrable lie — there are records of him interacting with at least 17 of the 20 accusers.
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/a-glaring-lie-in-trumps-sexual-harassment-tweetstorm-could-backfire-on-him-spectacularly/
Ides of March @ #819 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 9:36 am
Correct.
However probably also worth noting that McCain and Corker both basically hate Trump and are entirely willing to vote against things Trump wants. 49 dems plus likely defections from McCain and Corker makes it much harder for Trump to get anything through the Senate.
NateSilver538: It’s not clear whether “high turnout” is good news or bad news for Democrats. To state the obvious, it depends entirely where that turnout is. 53eig.ht/2AfcPgG
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/940731941611032576
GOP’s Steve Schmidt: Trump’s sexist attack on Gillibrand ‘an assault on the dignity of the Office of President’
According to never-Trump GOP analyst Steve Schmidt, President Donald Trump’s tweet attacking Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) aren’t just clear sexual innuendo and “another moment of disgrace” — they’re also a danger to the nation.
“It bears mentioning,” Schmidt said, “how abnormal this is. The assault, the constant assault on the dignity and the majesty of the office of the President of the United States.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2017/12/gops-steve-schmidt-trumps-sexist-attack-on-gillibrand-an-assault-on-the-dignity-of-the-office-of-president/
AR
Corker was the only R in the senate to vote against the tax bill. McCain voted for it.
Quite soon we can expect Sam D to be offered an “advisory” position with a Chinese firm at over $300,000 p.a.?
guytaur @ #855 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 6:46 am
You can have fun with it.
Here in Vietnam the label does change with who you speak to with “em” being a young person .
So when I speak to any woman I say “chao em” which often brings much laughter especially when the woman is much older than me. 🙂
Turnbull Bennlong presser now
Thanks for the warning guytaur. Not that I can watch anyway, even if I didn’t want to.
Ides of March @ #835 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 9:59 am
Yes, I didn’t say they’d always oppose. Just that they hate Trump and are willing to oppose (particularly on his most egregious ideas). They’re still Republicans.
Not going well for Mr Turnbull. He is having to say he is not racist. 🙂
AR
True.
Corker probably didnt get his specific wishes on the bill.
Turnbull’s granddaughter has already made an incredible contribution to Australia. 😉
Alexander accuses Kenneally of lying in everything she says.
guytaur @ #833 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 9:56 am
Except one side has every reason to be motivated, and the other has many reasons to be unmotivated and ashamed of themselves, their party, their president, and their Senate candidate. Which side is which should be obvious.
guytaur @ #841 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 10:06 am
That’s precisely what a racist would say!
HC delays announcing replacements for Lambie and Parry due to questions over next JLN candidates eligibility.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-13/citizenship-high-court-lambie-parry-replacements-delay/9254542
Pyne and Alexander are wearing huge frowns.
joshgnosis: Turnbull is asked about the domain bought with Kristina Keneally’s name. Turnbull doesn’t directly address whether it is appropriate, but talks about the content of the website.
political_alert: Opposition Leader @billshortenmp will join Shadow Health Minister @CatherineKingMP and Labor’s candidate for Bennelong @KKeneally at Ryde Hospital to discuss cuts to health, 12:30pm #auspol
Turnbull
Everything is fair when we are fighting for you, Bennelong.
Oh, and bad Bill Shorten.
As Turnbull & co walked away, the looks on the faces of the media pack was telling. Very dour.
michellegrattan: When does Huang get time to do his day job – or is this his day job? twitter.com/AndrewBGreene/…
AndrewBGreene: Finance Minister @MathiasCormann confirms he’s met Huang Xiangmo – last year the Chinese billionaire donated $20,000 to the Senator just before the election. “All of those donations are lawful and declared”
NateSilver538: The tidbits from the early exit polls seem good for Jones — but early exits often overstate turnout among Dem-leaning groups. 53eig.ht/2AzgbiU
lizzie says:
Wednesday, December 13, 2017 at 11:09 am
Pyne and Alexander are wearing huge frowns.
If they think they’re in trouble now, 3 days out from the poll, the Libs will know it’s too late. There’s almost nothing that can be done in 3 days to change the weight of opinion. It seems the their insults to the Asian community have registered; hardly a surprise considering the Libs past record and their cuddling-up to ON.
Ides
“Corker was the only R in the senate to vote against the tax bill. McCain voted for it.”
So did Collins (R-Maine). Corker voted against the tax bill on fiscal grounds – it will blow out the deficit. Plus he’s retiring, so he won’t be facing the ire of corporate donors.
jenauthor
I thought the media pack woukd be mighty pleased with itself. Dastyari has resigned. Isn’t that what they were aiming for?
I see they’re hoping for a 25% voter turnout in Alabama. Reminds me how much I love Australia’s system.
My view with having to go and vote in a by election due to sitting member not complying with requirements, (during a very busy time of year), is going to be one of annoyance and frustration.
victoria @ #886 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 7:27 am
Hard to feel much satisfaction when you know you’ve been used and abused!!!!! 🙂
The best word I’ve heard used to describe the behaviour of Roy Moore, used by David Brooks:
Depravity.
“hardly a surprise considering the Libs past record and their cuddling-up to ON.”
Lol! And its the LNP front man in W.A. Corman (and the odious Cash) who seem to have been the brains trust behind the LNP trying to cuddle up to ON in W.A.
Doesn’t the outcome of that speak volumes about their political judgement ??
tossers.
ForecasterEnten: I’m about 2/3s through my 2 liter diet A&W cream bottle… And we’re still 28 minutes until the polls close. I’m in trouble…
victoria @ #886 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 11:27 am
Yes, that was definitely the script.
But occasionally the writers do make a mistake.
Barney IGD
Well so far our msm seems to enjoy being used and abused by Turnbull and co. What else explains their lap dog efforts at every turn
MayneReport: Remarkably bold move by Tassie Labor to promise the removal of all pokies from pubs and clubs by 2023. What a trail-blazer Rebecca White is.
Barney in Go Dau @ #889 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 11:30 am
But they’re used to it, years of practice and all that.
Comes with the job description.
imacca says:
Wednesday, December 13, 2017 at 11:32 am
“hardly a surprise considering the Libs past record and their cuddling-up to ON.”
Lol! And its the LNP front man in W.A. Corman (and the odious Cash) who seem to have been the brains trust behind the LNP trying to cuddle up to ON in W.A.
Doesn’t the outcome of that speak volumes about their political judgement ??
tossers.
It’s the effect of the dog-whistle echo. All the insidious slurring, sledging, hedging and erosion used by the Right over the years has come back to bite them.
Turnbull prophesying end of times!