Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong

Labor records an unexpectedly strong showing in a Newspoll from Bennelong, and maintains a big national lead from Essential – although the latter also records a lift in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

The Australian has a Newspoll survey of Bennelong ahead of this Saturday’s by-election, and while the sample is a very modest 529, the results area a turn-up: a 50-50 tie on two-party preferred and a 39% tie on the primary vote, with the Greens on 9%, Australian Conservatives on 7%, the Christian Democratic Party on 2% and others on 4%. The two-party total would appear to be based on an allocation of at least 80% of Australian Conservatives and Christian Democratic Party preferences to the Liberals, presumably based on the latter’s preference flow in 2016. By contrast, The Australian reported last week that Liberal internal polling had them with a 54-46 lead.

Courtesy of The Guardian, the latest reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has Labor’s national two-party lead at 54-46, down from 55-45. However, the monthly leadership ratings record a substantial improvement for Malcolm Turnbull, who is up four on approval to 41% and down five on disapproval to 44%, while Bill Shorten is up a point to 36% and down there to 45%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 40-28 to 42-28. Other questions related in The Guardian involve sexual harassment and energy policy. More on this, along with primary vote numbers, when Essential publishes its report later today.

YouGov-Forty Acres: 50-50

The relatively volatile YouGov series for Fifty Acres is at 50-50 this fortnight, after Labor recorded a rare 53-47 lead last time. As usual though, this is based on very strong respondent-allocated preferences to the Coalition. The primary votes look relatively normal this time, with Labor up three on the primary vote to 35%, the Coalition up two to 34%, the Greens up one to 11%, One Nation down three to 8% and the rest down three to 13%. Other questions include a finding that 40% think Malcolm Turnbull should “stand down and let someone else take over”, compared with 39% who say he should remain.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,497 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; Newspoll: 50-50 in Bennelong”

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  1. adrian @ #896 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 7:35 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #889 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 11:30 am

    victoria @ #886 Wednesday, December 13th, 2017 – 7:27 am

    jenauthor

    I thought the media pack woukd be mighty pleased with itself. Dastyari has resigned. Isn’t that what they were aiming for?

    Hard to feel much satisfaction when you know you’ve been used and abused!!!!! 🙂

    But they’re used to it, years of practice and all that.
    Comes with the job description.

    It feeds into the whole Cash debate where the leak provides all the information in the story, as opposed to providing background information to build one.

  2. guytaur says:
    Wednesday, December 13, 2017 at 11:35 am
    MayneReport: Remarkably bold move by Tassie Labor to promise the removal of all pokies from pubs and clubs by 2023. What a trail-blazer Rebecca White is.

    It’s a very important step….a real step in social justice, in strengthening families and communities….excellent

  5. In answer to your q Vic, I think the media were unimpressed with the spin with regards to Keneally. PM cast his net very wide in blaming her for the end of the world as we know it stuff.

    KK was right – she predicted Turnbull would blame her for the death of Azaria Chamberlain before much longer … in the presser he did all but.

  7. Yep, that’s right, Malcolm Turnbull, it would be the end of YOUR children’s and grandchildren’s futures if the Labor Party came to government and the wealthy were no longer allowed to bilk the poor, Workers and the Middle Class!

  8. Please, please, think of the grandchildren, warns Turnbull.

    Of course somebody’s grandchildren will be OK. When Australia turns to shit they can flee to the Cayman islands.

  12. Sandra K Eckersley ‏ @SandraEckersley · 3h3 hours ago

    Ann Sudmalis has declined to comment about the $10,000 given to her campaign by the same controversial Chinese Billionaire who is currying favours with Canberra. #auspol #Gilmore

  15. I utterly despise poker machines and the leeches who make their money from them, and any effort to limit their availability is excellent. However, I can’t help thinking that the move by Tas. Labor is, shall we say, courageous. In the Sir Humphrey context.

    My hope is that the Tas clubs/pubs don’t wield as much power as those in NSW, who have built their power base off the back of teeming billions of poker machine cash stolen from those who have lost their ability to reason effectively. I’m sure everyone remembers the “we didn’t vote for a license to punt” campaign that killed off poker machine reform in 2012.

    Is a worry.

  18. jaketapper: Latest exit polls – 98% of Dems with Jones, 91% of GOPers with Moore. Jones getting 19% of liberal/moderate Republican vote. African-American turnout at 30%.

  20. Exit polls are useless. Jones voters are eager to share who they voted for (and against); Moore voters, not so much.

    I first thought that. But on reflection, there may be Jones voters in some areas who would keep that voting intention on the QT.

  21. Put me down for 52.1 – 47.9 in favour of Keneally comrades. Nothing goes right for Turnbull in politics why would he break his losing streak now.

  22. ezraklein: According to CNN’s exit poll, 44 percent of Alabama voters say the allegations against Moore are probably or definitely false: cnn.com/election/2017/… pic.twitter.com/a5Or8An4Ux

  26. XochitlHinojosa: As @jaketapper noted, the fact that the DNC chair is in studio talking about how a Democrat has a chance to win in Alabama is pretty remarkable. Republicans have historically won by 20-30 points. pic.twitter.com/YUoV6L22ZL

  28. ezraklein: The only reason Democrats have a chance tonight is they had a real candidate even before it was clear that candidate had a shot. The same was true for Republicans in the 2010 Massachusetts special election. If you don’t compete, you can’t win.

  31. MSNBC political contributor:

    Scott Dworkin‏Verified account
    @funder
    5m5 minutes ago
    More
    Based on the numbers I’ve seen today, I think Doug Jones may have pulled off an upset.

    Fingers crossed!

  33. Lots of Repugs “voters” think Moore is innocent. That’s no surprise. The big question is how many “non-voters” think it. How many stayed home

  34. HARRY ENTEN 8:17 PM
    It’s still extremely early, but as I look at the very limited data we have, I think Jones will get the type of margins he wants among black voters tonight. The question is whether or not he will do well enough with white voters.

  36. sprocket_

    The website roars: “Kristina Keneally? Not again!” and “scandal and chaos”. “Kristina Keneally led one of the most chaotic, scandalous and incompetent governments in Australia’s history. Her record speaks for itself,” it says.

    Obviously they’re overlooking their own current chaotic, scandalous and incompetent Federal government.

  42. What I can never understand about the psyche of Liberal voters and their country mates, is the need to believe the idea that with a Labor government – anywhere, any time – the end of the world is at hand. Yet, with a vote for the conservative side, there is nothing but green pastures and blue skies are ahead for all. Despite all evidence to the contrary that Labor/LNP governments/leaders can be good, bad and indifferent, LNP voters always believe that salvation, if that is the word, is always in the hands of the conservative side of politics. What is even more strange, some of the LNP voters are not unintelligent when it comes to other matters. Here we have it again with Turnbull…………………….the end is nigh if Bill Shorten ever becomes PM……………………

  46. Very early numbers, but Jones has racked up a huge margin in Tuscaloosa County, a populous and strong Republican (and white) county that Trump won by 20 points. I think the Dems might have actually done this!

    Next one to watch will be Madison County, which contains Huntsville.

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