The first Newspoll in three weeks is a better one for the government, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 55-45 to 53-47. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 36%, Labor down one to 37%, the Greens up one to 10% and One Nation down two to 8%. The better result for the Coalition flows through to Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, with approval up three to 32% and disapproval down one to 57%, and his preferred prime minister lead out from 36-34 to 39-33. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 54%.
We also have the first Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers in three months, and it also has Labor leading 53-47, which is unchanged on the previous poll (this is with preferences allocated as per the last election – Ipsos produces a separate result on respondent-allocated preferences, but it’s not available yet). Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 34% and Labor to 33%. Ipsos continues to record unusually strong support for the Greens, although they are down a point to 13%, and has One Nation on 7%, which I believe is the first result they have published for them. In keeping with Ipsos’s past form, leadership ratings are unusually favourable, and low on uncommitted responses: Malcolm Turnbull scores 42% approval and 49% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is on 38% and 42%. Also unusual is the size of Turnbull’s 48-31 lead as preferred prime minister.
The poll finds Julie Bishop (32%) edging past Malcolm Turnbull (29%) as preferred Liberal leader, with Tony Abbott on 14%, Peter Dutton on 5% and Scott Morrison on 4%. A further question suggests opposition to the notion of dumping Turnbull, but there are problems with it: it does not relate to Turnbull specifically, but to whether governing parties should or should not changes leaders mid-term. As stated, it appears those favouring an affirmative position are required to suggest that leadership changes should happen in all circumstances. So I’m not sure how much to make of the fact that only 25% signed on to this, with 71% opposed. The poll also finds 49% supporting a change to Section 44 with 47% opposed, corroborating last week’s finding by YouGov, and has 71% in support of a royal commission into banks, with just 19% opposed.
Here’s one for y’all – how many Howard Government policy settings have actually changed since 2007? Can anybody name 3?
frednk @ #22 Sunday, December 3rd, 2017 – 7:46 pm
Possum made an illuminating point about the recent Qld election. As most people know, he is at the centre of a lot of polling undertaken continuously by the Together union and and organisation called Working for Queenslanders.
After all the sound and fury of the last year in Qld politics and the election campaign, the vote shares of the various parties at the election were almost exactly the same as their polling revealed a year ago.
I think the actual voting intentions of most people usually change only very slowly. Occasionally after some dramatic event in the news one side or the other will get a bit of a bump due to people’s reaction to the news but it usually settles down by the next election.
That’s why I find the slow buildup of the ALP 2PP encouraging – it seems to me to be a permanent (or at least semi-permanent) change and will be very hard for the LNP to dislodge.
The same phenomenon is evident in the same sex marriage survey.
Despite the frequent criticism some time ago of Essential polls being too stable, I think their mode of polling online which allows people to sit down in front of the computer and think about their answers better measures the real voting intention. A phone call demanding an instant answer is, I think, much more likely to elicit an answer influenced by the last bit of news the respondent heard.
Thanks for the reminder Edwina.
I have a vivid memory of that Sunday morning 45 years ago.
The mother of my children came from farming stock and were sitting in the kitchen listening to the ABC 7.45am news which was full of Whitlam’s win.
To my utter amazement my future mother in law declared to her husband that they had better sell the farm as quickly as possible before Whitlam had a chance to nationalise it.
Quite possibly the stupidest thing I have ever heard anyone say about politics in my 65 years.
Edwina StJohn says:
Sunday, December 3, 2017 at 9:28 pm
Here’s one for y’all – how many Howard Government policy settings have actually changed since 2007? Can anybody name 3?
Are you accepting his miss-management for the structural deficit?
So who’s betting a 55:45 newspoll tonight.
I also wager with Dastyari, shorten will pull ahead with PPM if only because he kicked him to the curb within 24hrs of old news coming out.
I think it would have fallen back a tad. 53-47 for NewsPoll.
You shouldn’t post when you’ve been smoking the doobies south.
#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (+2) ALP 53 (-2) #auspol
53-47 ALP, All within MOE.
Not that unexpected, I reckon. Shorten handled it about as well as he could, but the Dastyari stuff was still bound to be a bit damaging.
Won’t matter in the long run. Turnbull’s still doomed.
Consolation prize i guess, 53:47
Hopefully all of this ultimately leads to the end of preferential voting and we move to a prop.rep system.
Edwina StJohn @ #34 Sunday, December 3rd, 2017 – 9:15 pm
Well he never wrote this sort of crap –
…
And the award for most baffling non-sequitor goes to ESJ!
How about that -21 approval rating for Shorten. I thought Rudd, Hawke , Whitlam were all substantial positive ratings when they won. Maybe it doesn’t matter in the post – truth era.
Murdoch’s take:
“Turnbull extends lead over Shorten
9:34PMDAVID CROWE
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has widened the gap over Bill Shorten as preferred PM as the coalition enjoy some much-needed wins.”
Edwina StJohn @ #62 Sunday, December 3rd, 2017 – 9:48 pm
So run with it at at an election – see how you go
Exxon accused of creative accounting
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/exxonmobil-paid-no-tax-on-18-billion-revenue-unions-allege-20171203-gzxpok.html
whoever would have thought.
citizen:
It says something about the dire position the government’s currently in when a poll showing a 53-47 lead to the opposition can be touted as “much-needed win.”
I get this answer to the Trump question; x= 5,776,226,505 keystrokes.
log 0.5=x log(1-1/26*7)
Anyone else?
Hello Diogenes, are you looking forward to the inevitable victory of socialism and Jai, in greater Adélaïde next year with the “fairness” boundaries?
Has ESJ finally realised the 2016 election is over and she didn’t win Warringah? 🙂
I said that there would be a short term sugar hit for the government. I expect that the polls will narrow further and Labor will need to fight harder to maintain their lead. many of the governments problems have been put to bed and the economic fundamentals are also improving.
So, after throwing the dirty kitchen sink at Labor, plus implementing a couple of their policies via the long and winding road, the Coalition have received a massive bounce back to 47?
C@tmomma @ #72 Sunday, December 3rd, 2017 – 10:07 pm
ESJ is totally nuts, but rather entertaining.
Tony Burke is the only realistic Labor leadership option.
dave
Thanks for the recommendation on the Ulefone T1.
It is going great, particularly for the price.
Only 2 minor negatives. It lacks band 28, although there are hacks that supposedly allow it to be turned on. Secondly, the body has a slight twist.
Works just fine. Screen is great, reasonable camera, fast enough, found some apps that synced my contacts and calendar with iCloud.
Does all I want.
47-53 and we’re talking about Labor’s leadership options? Really?
ESJ
I’ve just noticed the Libs are actually favourites with the bookies now (that’s the first time I can recall that). I had a chat to the Lib candidate yesterday and asked him why they weren’t trying harder. Jai has been dumping the trash recently, including Snelling, which will give him a decent chance. The biggest issue is the power supply; Jai will be praying there are no blackouts and the battery does its job. Marshall will be hoping for lightning strikes, storms and heatwaves and a few disgruntled power line technicians…
The key point about tonight’s Newspoll (from Crowe article):
Edwina StJohn @ #76 Sunday, December 3rd, 2017 – 10:12 pm
Those *Great calls* keep coming –
…
I imagine if the New England by-election result had been different, even if it had been a close-run thing for the Nats, the commentary with tonight’s polling would have a very different flavour to it.
We’ll citizen, the person who is protected by the news poll faction is bill shorten. Who is his praetorian guard? Sam Dastyari ?
“I have every confidence that I will lead the Coalition to the next election in 2019 and we will win it, because we are putting in place the policies that deliver for the Australian people,” Mr Turnbull told Sky News.
By nicking their policies off Labor.
LOL Dave. Your still thick I see but love your work regardless.
U.K. Snooping bill updated:
https://www.theregister.co.uk/AMP/2017/11/30/investigatory_powers_act_illegal_under_eu_law/
Asha Leu @ #69 Sunday, December 3rd, 2017 – 10:00 pm
I think the return of ESJ is another indicator of much the same thing! 🙂
ESJ “prediction” –
James Massola with a reality check for the Coalition:
Edwina StJohn @ #85 Sunday, December 3rd, 2017 – 10:23 pm
And here was I thinking Edwina was sufficiently educated not to use ‘your’ when she should use you’re.
Edwina StJohn @ #85 Sunday, December 3rd, 2017 – 10:23 pm
All your own words esj
Dave et al as Paul John Keating used to say ‘ the dogs are barking but the caravan moves on’
It’s not surprising the 2pp has clicked back a notch or so in favour of the LNP, following the successful completion of the ME survey and the passage through the Senate of the reform Bill. This will register positively with voters. When the amendments finally pass the House too, there will likely be further recovery in the LNP position.
Rex logs off, Edwina logs on.
Tom.
Edwina StJohn @ #92 Sunday, December 3rd, 2017 – 10:29 pm
Pathelic
Labor are thrashing the tories in the polls.
Every “prediction” you have made about Shorten, abbott, cambpell etc etc
>>>> Have been totally *wrong*
Nice – keep them coming!
Great image Dan G!
Noone else thinks its interesting that the footage if Dastyari comes out just before the government brings forward legislation to counter “foreign influence”.
Seems to be the same methodology to the AWU raids…
How likely is it that these could be brought before Parliament next week before the Bennelong by-election?
Diogenes @ 10.03pm
I may be wrong on this, but as each choice of letter is independent, the probability of the string COVFEFE being generated from the point at which each letter is typed is p= (1/26)^7 . The number of letters needing to be typed to get to the first “success” is therefore a geometrically distributed random variable with expected value 1/p (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution#Moments_and_cumulants). The expected value is therefore 26^7, or 8,031,810,176.
The nice, unstated thing about the problem, undoubtedly known to those who set the exam, is its close link to the Infinite Monkey Theorem (aka the second Borel-Cantelli lemma), see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem. The image of Mr Trump as but one of an infinite number of monkeys typing at random with the aim of accidentally coming up with something meaningful seems very apt.
Bob Newhart also had a take on this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBByfSHxm5M.
So…
– 24th Newspoll in a row behind
– Labor still ahead in the primary vote
– Shorten with slightly less bad approvals (lower net negative approval)
– Down 47-53
– The incumbent PM still under 40% as PPM
…
This is supposed to be positive because the sample was a little more pro-Labor last time?
Remember, the next sitting could be a real barn-burner.