Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Overwhelming support for a banking royal commission in the latest Essential poll, which finds Labor maintaining its big lead on voting intention.

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead unchanged at 54-46. Beyond that, I’m a bit tied up at this point to discuss the attitudinal results (chief among which is 64% support for a royal commission into banking), but they are as ever summarised in The Guardian, and will be available in complete form when the full report is published later today, together with the primary vote numbers. I believe we should also have YouGov along later today.

UPDATE. YouGov/Fifty Acres: 53-47 to Labor

The fortnightly YouGov/Fifty Acres poll has Labor’s lead out to a new high of 53-47, but this is due to preferences rather than primary votes: Labor and the Coalition are now tied on 32% of the primary vote, after Labor led 34% to 31% last time, with One Nation steady on 11% and the Greens down a point to 10%. There is also a preferred prime minister question recording a 31% tie, with Malcolm Turnbull rated strong by 21%, weak by 41$ and neither by 30%.

The poll records an interestingly high level of support for constitutional change allowing dual citizens to run for office, with 46% in favour and 40% opposed. Also featured are national approval ratings for the Bennelong by-election candidates, both of whom do very well on both name recognition and personal support (40% favourable of John Alexander and 28% unfavourable; 39% and 29% for Kristina Keneally). Forty-six per cent support new religious protection laws in same sex marriage legislation, with 36% opposed; 55% say the government has a responsibility for the safety of asylum seekers on Manus Island, with 36% for the contrary. The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1034.

The full Essential Research report has the Coalition up a point on the primary vote, to 36%, Labor steady on 38%, the Greens steady on 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. Sixty-four per cent of respondents favoured a banking royal commission, with only 12% opposed. Questions on the economy produced a mixed bag: 33% rate its state as good with 24% for poor, but 39% think it headed on the wrong direction compared with 31% for right. A question about economic issues of concern finds the highest ratings for anything to do with prices, particularly energy prices, and lesser but still substantial concern about income tax and interest rates. Forty-nine per cent supported incentives and subsidies to speed the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, 16% leaving it to the market, and 12% who wanted intervention to slow the process.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

939 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. senthorun: If the Marriage Law Postal Survey in Australia has taught us anything, it’s that when a conservative invokes the “silent majority” to justify something, “silent” actually means non-existent.

  3. Just one other thing re Sam Daystari.

    As I posted earlier how would the MSM have any idea what was said between Daystari and the Chinese businessman in a face to face conversation in a back yard 12 months ago ?

    The only other option would be transcripts of telephone conversation (s) between the pair where Daystari informed the businessman his phone may be tapped. Think about that for a second. Sam Daystari supposedly knew the phone was being tapped yet spoke over the phone to tell the other person to watch out his phone may be tapped. Really ?

    Bollocks to it all.

    Cheers.

  4. Doyley

    I hope Labor realises that Apple security breach highlights that talking about security is not unusual. Also they should ask who was bugging the phone? Was it Trump’s allies the Russians? A business, someone else or are Brandis and Bishop confirming they burnt an intelligence source for political gain?

  5. It looks like the Oz is ignoring claims about Dastyari, instead concentrating on the dire straits that Turnbull is finding himself in. There are several articles on the subject. It might be inferred that Murdoch’s main preoccupation at the moment is destabilising Turnbull’s leadership.

  6. An addition to my comment to Doyley.

    By revealing source the government gave up the chance of seeing Senator Dastyari arrested for breaching security laws by passing classified information on to a foreign power.

    Why would they do that?

    Another common sense question a journalist should think about. The government attack would be far more effective with some actual evidence, not some innuendo.

  8. citizen @ #655 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 9:58 am

    It looks like the Oz is ignoring claims about Dastyari, instead concentrating on the dire straits that Turnbull is finding himself in. There are several articles on the subject. It might be inferred that Murdoch’s main preoccupation at the moment is destabilising Turnbull’s leadership.

    It was covered in a rival newspaper is more likely the reason.

  12. Guytaur,

    Agree with you.

    The two simple question s that need to be asked are if Daystari did inform his Chinese mate re phone tapping 12 months ago why has no action been taken against Daystari and why has it only surfaced now ?

    I would consider the answers to both questions to be obvious.

    Anyway, we shall see how this plays out and how labor responds. Is this legitimate or another AWU / Cash moment for the government ?

    Cheers.

  13. IoM

    Amy does do it well.
    .
    “Pauline Hanson is on her feet and is questioning whether the vote was done “lawfully” and whether it is a “true and a clear reflection of what Australians wanted”. She says she has “heard” some people didn’t get the vote at all.

    I am too tired for this.”

  15. Re Dastyari, I’ll just wait till the AFP raids his offices, he is charged with a criminal offence, appears before a court,is found guilty and sent to prison,otherwise it’s just more LNP bullshit.

  17. sonar says:

    Re Dastyari, I’ll just wait till the AFP raids his offices, otherwise it’s just more LNP bullshit.

    These days an AFP raid could be just more ‘LNP bullshit’

  19. Ricky_Muir: Glad my political experience with @JimmyBarnes was nothing more than me being star struck by someone who performed soundtracks that have stuck with me rather than be flamed by him. Ouch @JoshFrydenberg pic.twitter.com/6z16LsBEHr

  20. One of life’s minor miracles is that the Greens Party is not trying to destroy marriage equality in the Senate right now.

    Instead, the Greens Party gives some comfort and solace to the banking and finance industry spivs.

  23. Could be fun times north of the Tweed. From Amy

    Having just come from Queensland, I spoke to quite a lot of people in the LNP. Keep an eye on the next Senate ticket at the next election and the names that likely won’t be there. From the chats I had, that shake up is still very much on the cards

    “Three senior Queensland senators could be forced out of their seats by the next election,”
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/shake-up-looming-for-queensland-lnp-senate-ticket-as-brandis-macdonald-osullivan-come-under-threat-20170512-gw39nx.html

  24. Talking about toxic, I trust you all read the Richo article I linked to last night.

    Here is the thing that Richo was saying in and between the lines.

    1. The Ag Department hands $60,000 to the NFF to organize a national farming event/prize. It can only do that if the Minister has either directly or by way of delegation, approved the expenditure.

    2. The award is arranged at a $120 a plate do. Tables for coporates went at $1000 plus.

    3. The Minister for Agriculture gets the $40,000 award.

    Here are the questions:

    1. Did the $40,000 come not from Gina but from the taxpayers?
    2. What happened with the profits of the $120 a plate do?
    2. What was the nomination process for the prize? What were the guidelines? Who applied the guidelines? Who approved Joyce ‘winning’ $40,000?

  27. Francis could not find it in his heart to mention the word ‘Rohinga’ in his public words in Myanmmar.

    Shades of World War Two.

    Where another Pope sat on his duff while the Holocaust was being perpetrated.

  29. CT

    Given Bishop and the Glorious Foundation I don’t have problems with Dastyari keeping cordial ties with Chinese people even if they are government officials.

    I do have problems with the racist double standard revealed. I hope Bennelong voters do too.

  31. lanesainty: Ian Macdonald rises to speak but his microphone is turned off and the other senators can’t hear him.

    “He’s not worth listening to anyway!” says Sarah Hanson-Young.

  32. So, by destroying the ETS the Greens Party gifted the coal burners.
    Now, by trying to destroy the bank bill, the Greens Party is gifting the big bankers.
    How surprisement.
    What is surprizing is that ten per cent of the voters enjoy being dudded by this cynical crew of political opportunists.

  33. My alternative view to the BW propaganda

    Greens making sure Labor does a proper Banking Royal Commission and that Greens and Labor can campaign on Turnbull friend to bankers.

  35. Katharine Murphy‏Verified account @murpharoo · 18m18 minutes ago

    I really do hope that parliament’s first aid station is well stocked with band aids. Because there’s a bunch of folks sprinting to professional victimhood so fast they might fall over and scrape their knees #auspol #MarriageEquality

  39. Shades of Abbott and his “carbon tax ” crusade?

    Political Alert‏ @political_alert · 16m16 minutes ago

    Minister for the Environment and Energy @JoshFrydenberg will visit a small business in Bennelong and hold a doorstop at 10:30am #auspol

  40. lanesainty: Peter Whish-Wilson gets up and says: “If Senator Hinch has to remove his scarf, Senator Hanson would have to remove her dress!”

    (She is wearing a rainbow dress)

  41. srpeatling: To all those people who keep asking about sexism and bullying behaviour in Parliament – it’s on full display, again, in the Senate right now.

  43. Dastyari was under my radar a bit till I saw him at his senate inquiry on tacx dodging interviewing the bigwigs from Google, Apple, etc …

    He seemed to spend five minutes minutes introducing each new witness with a gushing “thanks for coming, I know how busy you are, we really appreciate your time, hopefully we wont take too long so you don’t miss your flight” speech.

    Why, I thought, is he sucking up to these people? They are the enemy.

    It looks like he is being stitched up a bit with the latest allegations but I reckon he is someone Labor would be best advised to keep on the back bench.

  44. guytaur @ #679 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 10:29 am

    CT

    Given Bishop and the Glorious Foundation I don’t have problems with Dastyari keeping cordial ties with Chinese people even if they are government officials.

    I do have problems with the racist double standard revealed. I hope Bennelong voters do too.

    Well said. Labor supporters generally too willing to attack their own at the first sight of a media confected outrage.

    There are questions to answer alright. Most of them on the government side.

  45. ‘Why, I thought, is he sucking up to these people? They are the enemy.’

    Having not watched, I can’t comment on this specifically, but I’ve always found it far more effective to be ultra polite to those you’re going to ask curly questions. If you’re rude to them, they’ll use that to deflect from answering the question.

    If you’re super polite and respectful, they’re got nowhere to go, and evasions are more obvious.

  48. SK ‘Pointy brackets’ – they mean greater than and less than symbols.

    Ahhh. Thanks. I fixed my C+ problem so it is back to blockquotes for now. But just in case….

    italic test

  49. Zoomster

    As my dear old mum would say, there is no defence against niceness. And I agree with her, and you.

    But in the case I mentioned i believe Dastyari went way beyond politeness.

    I had the feeling he was enjoying the fact that the camera was on him.

  50. adrian

    My comment was not based in any way on the foreign visitor being Chinese.

    It would be an equally stupid suggestion if it had been made to any foreign visitor.

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