Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Overwhelming support for a banking royal commission in the latest Essential poll, which finds Labor maintaining its big lead on voting intention.

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead unchanged at 54-46. Beyond that, I’m a bit tied up at this point to discuss the attitudinal results (chief among which is 64% support for a royal commission into banking), but they are as ever summarised in The Guardian, and will be available in complete form when the full report is published later today, together with the primary vote numbers. I believe we should also have YouGov along later today.

UPDATE. YouGov/Fifty Acres: 53-47 to Labor

The fortnightly YouGov/Fifty Acres poll has Labor’s lead out to a new high of 53-47, but this is due to preferences rather than primary votes: Labor and the Coalition are now tied on 32% of the primary vote, after Labor led 34% to 31% last time, with One Nation steady on 11% and the Greens down a point to 10%. There is also a preferred prime minister question recording a 31% tie, with Malcolm Turnbull rated strong by 21%, weak by 41$ and neither by 30%.

The poll records an interestingly high level of support for constitutional change allowing dual citizens to run for office, with 46% in favour and 40% opposed. Also featured are national approval ratings for the Bennelong by-election candidates, both of whom do very well on both name recognition and personal support (40% favourable of John Alexander and 28% unfavourable; 39% and 29% for Kristina Keneally). Forty-six per cent support new religious protection laws in same sex marriage legislation, with 36% opposed; 55% say the government has a responsibility for the safety of asylum seekers on Manus Island, with 36% for the contrary. The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1034.

The full Essential Research report has the Coalition up a point on the primary vote, to 36%, Labor steady on 38%, the Greens steady on 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. Sixty-four per cent of respondents favoured a banking royal commission, with only 12% opposed. Questions on the economy produced a mixed bag: 33% rate its state as good with 24% for poor, but 39% think it headed on the wrong direction compared with 31% for right. A question about economic issues of concern finds the highest ratings for anything to do with prices, particularly energy prices, and lesser but still substantial concern about income tax and interest rates. Forty-nine per cent supported incentives and subsidies to speed the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, 16% leaving it to the market, and 12% who wanted intervention to slow the process.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

939 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Dastyari has screwed up big time on one occasion. He has been punished like all MPs are yet some here want him kicked out. Can’t understand this.

    Besides he is an asset in terms of campaigning and getting his message across via various media platform.

  2. CT

    The racism is the double standard of the LNP. I was referring to.

    I think that is one of the questions to answer Adrian was referring to.

    Not that Adrian was inferring you are racist.

  3. Dastyari is a deliberate distraction. The Libs have been watching how Trump uses distraction and have been emulating him.

    They use their pet journos and have become less secretive about it. Trump has shown blatant inappropriate behaviour is now permitted.

  4. From Clennell and Higginson in The Oz

    ‘Liberal John Alexander has had a victory in the race for Bennelong with the Australian Conservatives party recommending voters preference him ahead of Labor candidate Kristina Keneally.

    Christian Democrats leader Fred Nile said his party would wait until later this week before deciding where to direct preferences.

    …’

  5. j
    Dastyari should just go. There are plenty of people who have never taken free money for personal from Chinese folk who could fill his senate seat.
    Chinese influence and power in Australia is going to grow as an issue of concern.
    Everytime it does so, Dastyari will be dragged out for another flogging.
    He made a fundamental political, personal and ethical error.
    He should just go.

  6. Dastyari should have stayed a party hack. Loves playing the political games, thinks he is smarter than everyone else. A ‘player’ who could play for either side. Useful in the back room party machinery perhaps, but a real ticking time-bomb as an elected representative.

  7. Boerwar @ #706 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 11:11 am

    j
    Dastyari should just go. There are plenty of people who have never taken free money for personal from Chinese folk.
    Chinese influence and power in Australia is going to grow as an issue of concern.
    Everytime it does so, Dastyari will be dragged out for another flogging.
    He made a fundamental political, personal and ethical error.
    He should just go.

    Once again Labor held to a different standard, and some Labor supporters seem to be quite happy with that.

  8. A
    My standard is that he should go.
    In fact, my view is that politicians who take free personal money should go to jail.
    If you think it is OK to take free personal money, that is up to you.

  9. Sorry Boerwar – that is ridiculous. You have Libs taking money from mining magnates and Chinese patrons, but Dastyari needs to be given his marching orders?

  10. jenauthor says:

    Wednesday, November 29, 2017 at 11:18 am

    Sorry Boerwar – that is ridiculous. You have Libs taking money from mining magnates and Chinese patrons, but Dastyari needs to be given his marching orders?
    —————————————————–
    There I was thinking Labor people were against the ‘Libs taking money from mining magnates and Chinese patrons’. I know I still am.

  11. No political party should be allowed to take money from foreign donors.

    You really have to question the judgment of an MP who asks a donor, foreign or otherwise, to pay his personal bills.

  12. “”What’s not to be proud of? The British people love the NHS because it does for the British people what they want it to do. It’s how things should work. There are some who are trying to undermine it, to sell it off bits and pieces to private interests. The government, in doing this, also doesn’t properly manage and fund it. Then, they use the problems this causes to justify further selling it off to private interests. What a shame, when we hear of this happening, as the NHS is, and should be, a model that other countries should use.”
    Just read this by an American woman who married a English gent and moved to the U.K.
    Reminds me of our useless Liberal government trying to slowly destroy Medicare!.

  13. Maybe Dastayari said it being cute. Knowing some spook might be listening in, but he had no first hand knowledge of this. Not really a big deal, I am sure others have done similar, and he would not be telling the Chinese guy anything he would not know and have been warned about.

    It gets interesting if Dastayari denies he said it, though. How do the Libs prove it, without revealing a security breach of their own?

  14. Someone in the Government – presumably from the office of the PM – has seen fit to reveal that Huang has been under surveillance. Whoever did this should be charged with the relevant offence. If Turnbull authorised this he should be instantly dismissed and then charged.

  15. On Dastyari.
    1. Can’t the Libs find anything more recent to use for distraction?
    2.

    Matthew Rimmer‏
    @DrRimmer

    There’s something quaint about this story. In the age of data retention, all phones are subject to surveillance.

  16. ‘jenauthor says:
    Wednesday, November 29, 2017 at 11:18 am

    Sorry Boerwar – that is ridiculous. You have Libs taking money from mining magnates and Chinese patrons, but Dastyari needs to be given his marching orders?’

    There is no need for an apology.

    I would jail ALL politicians who to take free personal money.

    Go straight to jail. Do not pass Go!

    If we need an extra jail to put all the smarmy democracy destroyers in, Don Dale will soon be available.

    I would send ALL politicians who take back door electoral money to an ICAC.

  17. People need to realise that Labor need the very highest of ethical standards so they can go after the tories when they inevitably cross the line with their cronyism.

  18. On the classified info being used for political purposes, hopefully that comes back to bite the Libs. It’s really emerged as their standard procedure for slinging mud – inappropriately using the resources and privileges of executive government and getting themselves in a terrible tangle.

  19. Today’s smear was not about accepting personal donations.

    It was about surveillance.

    LNP alleging that Dastyari is a security risk working against our national interest by warning of surveillance.

    Its a double standard because China is not our enemy its our major trading partner.

    No evidence has been given that Dastyari passed on confidential information.

    Why China? It could just as easily be the US. Malaysia or the EU.

    As for the accepting money from foreign donors that should be outlawed from all parties.

    The accepting donor money for personal gain like paying a bill is corruption and should be punished accordingly.

    The last Labor is as we had confirmed yesterday, moving to establish a Federal ICAC and today confirmed its foreign donor policy

  20. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, November 29, 2017 at 11:31 am
    briefly
    The US Foreign Agents Register is proving to be Mueller’s Trojan Horse. Very, very handy.

    No doubt, Boer.

    I also think that every meeting by a Minister, Parl-Sec, Ministerial advisor, Committee Chair etc with a lobbyist should be publicly documented – diarised – and at least a summary the content of the meetings should be available under FoI rules.

    Disclosure is the ally of the public interest.

  21. If people saw/heard Hanson in parliament they’d bury her and her party. She is as incoherent as a 7 year old doing a book report having not read the book.

  22. Bill has had enough of the ever amusing Mr Bean.
    ‘I have made it clear to Senator Dastyari that this is not the first time his judgment has been called into question, but I certainly expect it to be the last.’
    Ouch

  23. In what capacity is Senator Dastyari supposed to have learned of this phone tap, anyway? None of his shadow roles or committee memberships are at all relevant, and it seems highly unlikely that such operational details would be reported to parliamentary committees in any case.

  24. Boerwar @ #710 Wednesday, November 29th, 2017 – 11:15 am

    A
    My standard is that he should go.
    In fact, my view is that politicians who take free personal money should go to jail.
    If you think it is OK to take free personal money, that is up to you.

    B
    Well my point is that if we are going to have standards they should apply equally to all sides of politics.

    Currently that is not the case, and you seem fine with that.

  25. M

    The dinosaurs are making Senator Brandis the rest of the Senate a shining light.

    That article the other day of the warning of what history will regard your words via Hansard was well made.

  26. ‘B
    Well my point is that if we are going to have standards they should apply equally to all sides of politics.

    Currently that is not the case, and you seem fine with that.’

    Nope. Cos I support Labor I am particularly keen to see Labor pollies act in an ethical manner.

    But I would like to see all political spivs of any sort in the slammer.

  27. What I was saying, KevJohnno, is precisely that. The Libs have the hide to demand Dastyari resign when what they do is just as bad, probably worse because this is unproven innuendo (year old at that).

    They should all abstain from relationships/gifts whatever you like to call it. Corruption is rife but acceptable (if it is a Lib).

  28. I know I am repeating myself but the simple questions that need to be answered are

    how does the MSM know what Daystari said in a face to face meeting with the Chinese businessman 12 months ago ?

    The meeting took place in the garden of the home of the businessman. How does the MSM know where the meeting took place and when ? How does the MSM know what was said at this outdoor meeting ? Was the whole house and yard bugged ? Give me strength !

    If there is no record of what was said at this face to face meeting then the only other way the detail of what Daystari apparently said must be through phone transcripts. So, Daystari calls his mate and tells him to be careful because his phone is being tapped. Give me strength !

    This all supposedly happened 12 months ago yet, despite it being a ” significant security issue “, Daystari still sits in the senate, the security agencies have not taken any action in that 12 months against Daystari and there has not been a peep from the government.

    Shorten receives regular briefings from national security agencies and yet over the 12 month since this ” significant security breach ” occurred Daystari still sits in the senate. Shorten is a practice and pragmatic man. If there had been any doubt re Daystari passed on to him by the securuty agencies Daystari would not still be in the senate.

    Why raise this story now ? Citizenship debacle. Pure and simple.

    To those jumping at the opportunity to bag Daystari all I can suggest is play the story not the man and you will join the dots.

    Cheers to all.

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