No change on voting intention this week from Essential Research, with Labor continuing to lead 54-46 on two-party preferred (UPDATE: Actually, it was 53-47 last week. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is steady on 8%). Monthly leadership ratings confirm Newspoll’s picture of declining personal support for Malcolm Turnbull, who is down five on approval to 37% and up six on disapproval to 49%. However, Bill Shorten hasn’t done brilliantly either, being down two on approval to 35% and up four on disapproval to 48%, and making only a slight dent in Turnbull’s 42-28 lead as preferred prime minister, which now stands at 40-28.
Other findings:
• Forty per cent approve of a requirement that for MPs to provide declarations about their eligibility, while 44% say this does not go far enough. Forty-nine per cent say MPs found to have been invalidly elected should should repay their public funding, compared with 30% who thought otherwise.
• Forty-five per cent felt the same-sex marriage postal survey was a bad process that should not be repeated; 19% felt it good, but not one that should be repeated; and 27% thought it a good process that should be used more often.
We only have the report from the Guardian to go on at this point, with primary votes to follow with the publication of Essential’s full report later today.
The fortnightly Fifty Acres-YouGov poll records a break to Labor, who are now 52-48 in front after uncharacteristically trailing 51-49 in their last few polls. However, the pollster’s distinguishing peculiarity – the strength of support recorded for minor parties – is more pronounced than ever, as the Coalition sinks five to 31% and Labor only picks up one to 34%, with One Nation up two to 11% and the Greens up one to 11%. As usual, the two-party total is based on a respondent-allocated preference flow that gives three-quarters of the One Nation vote to the Coalition.
The pollster also has its occasional personal ratings for a range of politicians, which are unusual in being relatively favourable over all, and having low uncommitted ratings. Contrary to the other pollsters, Malcolm Turnbull records little change since early September, with approval steady at 44% and disapproval down one to 47%. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 45% and down two to 44%, and Pauline Hanson’s ratings are not unlike those of the major party leaders, with approval up three to 45% and down two on disapproval to 48%. Also featured: Richard Di Natale (up three to 29%, down six to 33%), Nick Xenophon (up one to 53%, steady on 28%), Bob Katter (up one to 37%, steady on 41%), Tony Abbott (up two to 36%, down one to 56%) and Christopher Pyne (steady on 32%, up one to 45%).
Other findings are that respondents want same-sex marriage legalised straight away if the survey result is yes, though 42% think opponents should vote with their consciences in parliament; they overwhelmingly favour a “full parliamentary audit” on Section 44; and they want a much harder line on tax avoidance and evasion.
I would love to see a proper pseph analysis of PPM.
Around two thirds of Labor voters prefer someone other than Shorten.
Zero percent of the Greens prefer Shorten.
Zero per cent of the PHON prefer Shorten.
Zero per cent of the Nationals prefer Shorten.
Very few of the Liberals prefer Shorten.
Decisions are not forced.
So there is no 2PP
So Shorten’s potential to get above 40% PPM is extremely limited.
THE relevant stats seem to be netsats and 2PP.
I’m going to buck the trend here and say I’m highly unconvinced about the KK move. It is a good short term move like a sugar hit but I don’t like it as a long term move. I’m not a fan of recycling politicians. I thought the same about Carr.
D
I still have an open mind about it. The $64 question is whether she can turn it into a referendum on Turnbull.
Looking at the MSM, ATM it seems to me that you are right: it is a referendum on KK.
Diogenes @ #552 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 5:50 pm
Maybe, but I love the almost reckless optimism of it. It’s great offensive play. How was Alexander’s backhand return of service?
Diogenes @ #552 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 1:50 pm
I agree with you on Carr, but KK is young enough to have a significant federal career.
You never know. If the sample 2 weeks ago was about 54-46, then the sample last week must have been about 52-48 to get the 53-47 combined result they published. To get that 52-48 back to the published 54-46 this week means the sample must have been about 56-44.
Of course there are too many unknowns to be sure, such as the actual starting sample, and how much rounding influenced each step. 55-45 seems fairly safe though.
Only in RexWorld™ would a party consistently sitting on a landslide winning position in the polls urgently need to fire up pointless leadershit brawls in order to be successful.
For those who are not bushwalkers – Jacqui Lambie is blowing Truffle’s bagpipes at Dove Lake, beside Cradle Mountain on the Overland Track in Tassie.
KK is 49, Mesma is 61.
Mesma could have some BIG competition in the glamour stakes – without KK even trying.
PS – talking about the Rowe cartoon on the previous page.
Damn the loss of the edit function.
Boerwar @ #550 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 4:49 pm
ReachTel make you choose, currently 51/49 to Mal.
Q
Hell, I’ll take 60/40.
BW,
I’m not sure making it a referendum on KK is necessarily a good thing for Trumble. The more time she spends in front of the cameras the better generally she looks. The more shit they sling at her, the more chances she has to front the cameras. She’s got the wit and the personality to take the incoming fire and look good.
She won’t mind the chance to remind the world that she testified against Obeid et al and then turn to her talking points.
Keneally with her media work won’t be turned on the way the media denigrates Shorten. She’ll get more than enough soft treatment from contacts and acquaintances even if Mordor orders her smeared.
It might work, but a personable, attractive female candidate who is a professional in front of the camera isn’t the easiest target for a smear campaign. It could just as easily backfire and have the electorate decide that she looks like a very good option as their local rep.
don
So, is Dove Lake significant?
Mari
Thank you for constantly ensuring that all the ducks are in a Rowe.
CTar1 @ #502 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 2:17 pm
There is a reason that the L/NP don’t “broadcast” Brian’s unscripted interactions with voters on Facebook Live, unlike Labor who broadcast many of Bill Shorten’s unscripted interactions.
r
I think your considerations are germane. But I don’t know about how to weight them.
ItzaDream
His backhand was pretty ordinary. He had a nice serve and volley game on grass court though and a good temperament.
Barney
Her relative youth helps but it looks a bit like the party isn’t moving on and has to go backwards instead of promoting new talent. It’s a bit Back to the Future.
Of the Keneally doubters I ask this: who else?
This far out from the scheduled general election in a seat on 9 per cent there may well have been hopefuls working the factions and the branches with a view to running against Alexander and doing well enough to get another crack elsewhere.
But how would they go thrust into the hotseat for what will be, given the stakes, an intense campaign.
Is this where you want a rookie candidate who no one knew on Monday?
Kenneally has the street smarts and the media savy to deal with the pressure. It is a hard ask to win to be sure but at worst she is well equipped to give it a big shake.
It’s going to be a fun time.
Another probably sexist comment but Christine Milne is on The Drum and she looks 10 years younger than when in the Senate.
don @ #560 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 6:00 pm
Don, you can quote yourself and correct that way.
🐘
VP
51/49 seems more ‘real’ to me. Thanks.
Earlier musings by the right wingers was that the whole Coalition strategy was based around their single point of strength: the PPM lead of Turnbull over Shorten.
This last strategy has now crashed and burned.
BK
Not sexist. Greenist.
‘rossmcg says:
Tuesday, November 14, 2017 at 6:02 pm
Of the Keneally doubters I ask this: who else?’
Well, that is a problem right there?
Why isn’t there a conga line of talent?
What time tomorrow are we expecting the SSM survey thingy result…?
KayJay says:
Tuesday, November 14, 2017 at 6:03 pm
don @ #560 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 6:00 pm
PS – talking about the Rowe cartoon on the previous page.
Damn the loss of the edit function.
Don, you can quote yourself and correct that way.
True, but it is not as elegant as an edit function. But thanks for the elephant stamp!
BW, Dove Lake is not significant in any sense I know of, but there is a delightful circuit around its shores. Used often by day visitors to the northern end of the Overland Track.
I see the PB Cassandras, Diogenes and Boerwar, are already abandoning Kristina Kenneally.
sonar @ #574 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 3:09 pm
10:00 AEST / 7:00 WST
BK
I hardly recognised her. Stress relieved is as good as a facelift.
Did you know that Kristina Kenneally is also a Professor at the Maquarie University Graduate School of Management? 🙂
Boer – where the heck did you get those stats because they don’t agree with the latest Essential
@grimace….thank you.
The reason I expect Dec 1 to be a bloodbath for the Libs is that there is a very good reason why so many of the Liberals have not given up their foreign nationality or eligability.
Their children, in the majority, go into Finance or Law. The vast majority of them then have a year or two working for one of the overseas branches of the transnationals, and while their parent is eligible for citizenship, well so are they. No need for work visas etc.
I believe the ABS will give the SSM survey results at 10am
lizzie
I hardly recognised her — but I didn’t take the lack of stress option.
Jen,
It’s the Reachtel PPM. I wouldn’t be surprised if Shorten is ahead on their measure next time.
Boerwar
Talent may well be there and I hope we see a whole heap of new smart young Labor candidates in winnable seats whenever the general election is called and I daresay the party is working on that now.
But this is a one off and I think you don’t go for a rookie in a big game.
Yep, most of the front bench talent we see at present would have been total unknowns when they first ran for Parliament.
Bw
She’s experienced in both politics and the media.
If you have to have someone to contest a very short campaign she’d be on your list.
IIRC Alexander’s margin went down at the last election.
I think, if nothing surprising comes out against her during the campaign, she’s in with a chance.
And with Turnbull – his ability to do multiple total changes of what he’s been advocating within 24 hour must be telling against the Libs added to the fact the Libs don’t have any likely useful replacement for him.
Can’t be done really. The Libs will be looking to make Obeid stick to her, and Labor will be looking to have Keneally coated in teflon. We’ll find out how both plans turned out on Dec 16.
But my gut feeling is the Libs would be smarter to focus on Alexander and not mention Keneally much. They can leave their smears for the door knocking and the letter box. But every time a minister has a shot at her it’s a chance for her to look good in front of the camera. The Libs shouldn’t want to do that.
As for having a conga line of talent, this is a very special circumstance. The talent for a good local in a marginal at a general election, or even a future minister in a safe seat is not the same as what Labor are looking for here. But if Keneally didn’t have the Obeid link what on earth would be a weakness? She’s local, she has executive government experience, she has popularity, she has a high profile, and she has media presence. Labor’s taken a gamble that the Obeid stuff can be navigated and even turned into a positive (Keneally jailed Obeid). But everything else screams no brainer for this particular by election. Another candidate may have done a solid job, and perhaps even won. But this candidate has put the fear of God into the Libs. I’m always a fan of Libs having the fear of God put into them.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, November 14, 2017 at 6:01 pm
don
So, is Dove Lake significant?
Mari
Thank you for constantly ensuring that all the ducks are in a Rowe.
My pleasure
Ferry McFerryface. FFS!
What overpaid dingbat thought that was a good idea. And I’m not talking about the social media vote.
If the Libs keep going on about Obeid, then Arthur Sinodinis can be brought back into the picture. He was chairman of AWH when the Obeids bought 30% of it, yet claims to have not known.
Aqualung
Yeah, what the heck. At least the Brits had the common sense to ditch Boaty McBoatface or whatever it was and call it the David Attenborough.
C@t
I’m taking that as a compliment. Cassandra’s predictions were always correct but her curse was that no-one would believe her.
KK is the best shot at winning this by-election but it’s the big election that will really count.
And as an example of what I’m talking about 9 news just ran a feature piece with Keneally. The reporter put the Obeid issue to her and allowed her to run her line about if Trumble or Hunt or anyone else wants to smear her like that then they can go for their life it doesn’t bother her.
You can’t buy that sort of promotion. This is an opposition candidate looking to win a by election against a popular incumbent on 9.7%. Every day KK gets a good run on the TV is very likely to be a day Labor will be happy with.
Ferry McFerryface.
What about Fuck’n Ferry or the Tim Flannery.
If she wins this she’ll shit the election in. Incumbency advantage to her, incumbency advantage lost to the Libs, general election that will almost certainly sweep her party into power and her into a ministry.
If she loses this in a close result she’ll be well placed to get over the line at the election.
If she loses badly she goes back to the media.
More Paterson
Senator Paterson told the ABC in his view it would be wrong for a shop to erect a sign saying “no gays”, but it would be okay if the sign said “no gay weddings”.
If characterized as a small animal could he be called a gerbil or is that unfair to gerbils?
Trog Sorrenson @ #596 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 6:39 pm
Have you hear the rumour going the rounds to the effect that people are, on a really good day, just plain stupid ❓
😵 😵 😵
The other thing about Bennelong, if you take into account PollBludger that suggests the margin may only be about 7.5% as a starting point.
It will be interesting to see any seat polling and how many candidates nominate.