No change on voting intention this week from Essential Research, with Labor continuing to lead 54-46 on two-party preferred (UPDATE: Actually, it was 53-47 last week. Labor is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition is down one to 36%, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is steady on 8%). Monthly leadership ratings confirm Newspoll’s picture of declining personal support for Malcolm Turnbull, who is down five on approval to 37% and up six on disapproval to 49%. However, Bill Shorten hasn’t done brilliantly either, being down two on approval to 35% and up four on disapproval to 48%, and making only a slight dent in Turnbull’s 42-28 lead as preferred prime minister, which now stands at 40-28.
Other findings:
• Forty per cent approve of a requirement that for MPs to provide declarations about their eligibility, while 44% say this does not go far enough. Forty-nine per cent say MPs found to have been invalidly elected should should repay their public funding, compared with 30% who thought otherwise.
• Forty-five per cent felt the same-sex marriage postal survey was a bad process that should not be repeated; 19% felt it good, but not one that should be repeated; and 27% thought it a good process that should be used more often.
We only have the report from the Guardian to go on at this point, with primary votes to follow with the publication of Essential’s full report later today.
The fortnightly Fifty Acres-YouGov poll records a break to Labor, who are now 52-48 in front after uncharacteristically trailing 51-49 in their last few polls. However, the pollster’s distinguishing peculiarity – the strength of support recorded for minor parties – is more pronounced than ever, as the Coalition sinks five to 31% and Labor only picks up one to 34%, with One Nation up two to 11% and the Greens up one to 11%. As usual, the two-party total is based on a respondent-allocated preference flow that gives three-quarters of the One Nation vote to the Coalition.
The pollster also has its occasional personal ratings for a range of politicians, which are unusual in being relatively favourable over all, and having low uncommitted ratings. Contrary to the other pollsters, Malcolm Turnbull records little change since early September, with approval steady at 44% and disapproval down one to 47%. Bill Shorten is up two on approval to 45% and down two to 44%, and Pauline Hanson’s ratings are not unlike those of the major party leaders, with approval up three to 45% and down two on disapproval to 48%. Also featured: Richard Di Natale (up three to 29%, down six to 33%), Nick Xenophon (up one to 53%, steady on 28%), Bob Katter (up one to 37%, steady on 41%), Tony Abbott (up two to 36%, down one to 56%) and Christopher Pyne (steady on 32%, up one to 45%).
Other findings are that respondents want same-sex marriage legalised straight away if the survey result is yes, though 42% think opponents should vote with their consciences in parliament; they overwhelmingly favour a “full parliamentary audit” on Section 44; and they want a much harder line on tax avoidance and evasion.
ratsak
And give Keneally a tick for having a crack for the team.
She is quoted in a Fairfax article as saying there have been offers of safe seats and Senate vacancies but she has turned them down.
It takes more courage than I think I have to put yourself in the game knowing the task is a hard one and people all over, including those on your own side, will be lining up to kick you down the road if you fail.
John Reidy @ #598 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 2:43 pm
I think the consensus this morning was a stoat. 🙂
Rex Douglas @ #499 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 5:14 pm
OK Rex, now sing along with us………
When it’s suggested that Kristine Milne looks better since she left politics who’d be surprised.
Having a party chocker block with people who are full on about the existential threat of climate change and as rudely aggressive as McKim and Rhiannon can’t be a picnic.
I don’t think pieces on the nightly news are going to be the problem. I’m waiting for the midnight letterbox drops with pictures of KK with Obeid and co.
Ask, was it Cameron Murphy, how low the libs can go? And was it successful?
For what it’s worth I’m ok with Ferry McFerryFace … never understood why the Brits couldn’t accept Boaty McBoatFace – if you’re asking people their opinion you kind of have to accept it if it isn’t completely vulgar and just have a laugh at it.
This world could do with more silliness and self deprecation.
ratsak @ #589 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 3:24 pm
The Libs don’t generally do door knocking or phone banking, so that option is out.
oh and probably not mention Trumble at all. Or let him anywhere near the North side of the Parramatta River. In fact preferably keep him out of Sydney until it all blows over. Overseas even better. And no Liberal Logos on John’s corflutes.
Try and run a very personal John Alexander Aussie Sporting Hero, Popular Local Member campaign. He’s the best asset they have.
But the Libs are stupid, so they’ll probably stick with smear.
What was the origin of Boaty McBoatFace?
Maybe. Big maybe if it was original Jackol.
How many times are you likely to see it before what passes for a joke wears off.
ratsak
It’s more than Bennelong. It’s NSW in general. I don’t think she helps Labor get clear air in a very stinky state. I wouldn’t want her running if I was a Labor MP in a marginal electorate.
Then again, if she loses she might not run in the general election.
Aqualung –
I don’t need my ferries to have serious names. They function just as well with silly names as they do with something weighty and worthy.
Lizzie
https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/RRS_Sir_David_Attenborough&ved=0ahUKEwivjYGEy73XAhUKybwKHU9VAfkQFgiQATAV&usg=AOvVaw3AE3Fbl3sUNxJRXVMpRkuV
lizzie
It was a lesson in not opening up naming rights to on line polls !
.
“The name Boaty McBoatface was originally proposed in an online poll to name the ship that was eventually called RRS Sir David Attenborough,in honour of David Attenborough
Although Boaty McBoatface was the most popular suggestion in the #NameOurShip poll,[6the suggestion to use the name for the mother ship was not followed, and the Minister for Universities and Science, Jo Johnson, announced that the Boaty McBoatface name would be used for the submersibles aboard Sir David Attenborough instead”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boaty_McBoatface
@don
I live fairly close to Cradle Mountain, you’re right Dove Lake is fairly benign, there are definitely much prettier areas around with the ‘warm’* weather we’re having. I find Dove Lake its best in the winter just after a snow dump.
*Up until a few years ago I lived in central NSW, little down here classifies as warm.
Lizzie
I was wrong about Viceland. I think you got better information elsewhere.
A thousand and fifteen pardons please. ♥♥
Thanks Aqualung. 🙂
The LNP won’t be able to help themselves. In 2016 the tried to attack Anne Ali for about 10 days straight and effectively campaigned for her, lifting her name recognition and media opportunities many-fold. The result was that she was better known by the time of the election than the entirely forgettable Lib non-entity that she over-turned.
KK is a very experienced and polished public performer and would be great voice for Labor values and NSW interests in the Parliament. The more she’s attacked, the better she will be able to show her mettle.
Alexander is a retiree from tennis who’s not quite sure if he’s able to run. Maybe he actually doesn’t want to run. There can’t be much joy being a back-bencher in the most divided, incompetent and ineffectual government since the 1930s.
There will be many a tourist making sure they ride on it and get pics to show back home.
The problem with keeping Trimble away from Bennelong is that is exposes for all to see his weak position.
I can understand keeping him away from Queensland or WA, but if he shouldn’t campaign in an urban, upper middle class seat like Bennelong then where can he campaign?
KayJay
Since I’ve had a nice brandy with my meal and I’m feeling generous, I’ll give you 1020 pardons and a sloppy kiss from my dog Simon.
Edit ‘it exposes’
grimace @ #577 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 5:10 pm
That would be
09:00 AEST
10:00 AEDT (ie Daylight time)
07:00 WST
Sorry, one of my pet hates as a Qlder which is still on Australian Easter Standard time
By the end of the year I wonder if it will be plain that the SSM survey will have made no difference to the political process.
lizzie @ #589 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 6:59 pm
Ah, lovely. I knew your dog was named Simon. I made one of my little business cards for him.
I had a nice brandy too – 49 years ago. The 50th obviously next year. I think I’m a non drinker now.
Goodnight all. Complete reload of computer including complete hard drive wipe and start afresh.
♥♥
Ross, no question. I have a great deal of respect for everyone who puts their hand up (even Libs). It’s a tough gig and there are plenty more people who’ll have a crack at you than those who’ll be there for you if you fail. Keneally could easily have sat back and made a motza as a pundit. She’d never have been out of work in the media. Pollies are junkies, but still it takes a bit of stuff to put herself out there like this.
Aqualung, the disgusting effort in East Hills is a bit different. Murphy was an unknown to 99% of the population. The smear could get up before it could be countered. Keneally is a former Premier. Obeid is hardly a shocking revelation. The voters passed their judgement on that government 6.5 years ago. But even then Keneally was held in much higher regard than her government. Her evidence at ICAC was big news. There’s no opportunity for the Libs to get a smear up and running without it being countered, and indeed there aren’t going to be a massive amount of people without at least some sort of opinion of KK already.
Grimace, with this being so important (to him) Trumble will drop 7 figures again to ensure there are people spreading the word if he has to. The robocalls will be running thick and fast, and not a letter box will go unstuffed. I’m sure Labor’s ground game will be on point, but the Libs won’t be sitting on their hands on this one.
A team entry for effort?
If I were a voter in Bennelong I would be very pleased that KK has been proposed. She’s a serious candidate. That can only mean Labor takes the voters of Bennelong seriously too. More than this, Labor is saying to the entire country that they intend to take the contest to the Liberals wherever possible.
The voters of Bennelong are being invited to vote for change – to speak up for the rest of Australia in the same way that the voters of Canning did in 2015. They will very likely make the most of the chance.
a question that answers itself if ever there was one.
Smears against a popular, attractive (in the non-sexist sense of the word) and articulate candidate often backfire.
Anne Aly got a mention above but another prime example was Kevin Rudd.
I think any smear will be dropped pretty fast by the Liberals when they start to get backlash.
Actually what would be perfect would be some kind of diplomatic fracas between the Libs and the UK Civil Service in the desperation of a last minute attempt to get their candidate’s renunciation paperwork rushed through
Briefly
This WA company – OCEAN GROWN ABALONE LIMITED
Ticker OGA
Listed on ASX today.
briefly @ #620 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 2:57 pm
I’d read suggestions that Alexander was going to bow out at the next election, buying the property outside the electorate lends weight to that, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he had wanted to go now.
It would be interesting if they needed to do much arm twisting.
It will also be interesting, as a result, how much his heart’s in it and that could be another reason Labor are going so hard with a ready made quality candidate.
I think you will see many higher profile Libs out there campaigning for/with him.
Turnbull still claiming that the US are assessing asylum seekers …
I’ll be surprised if they take any more.
CTaR1
25 have been taken, I understand.
CTar1 @ #636 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 3:11 pm
They’d have 150 less to assess if this Government had any compassion! 🙁
Briefly
There was comment about Alexander’s future back mid year when he dropped $5 million on a new country estate at Moss Vale and the vultures were said to be circling his seat.
Give him a little credit for trying with his housing affordability inquiry of which he once said the relevant ministers wouldn’t even talk to him about.
I suspect his heart might not be really in it but he has to soldier on.
Dio,
I’ve always accepted it’s a high risk move. As you can see from the News Ltd smear chorus above we know how this is going to play out from their side. If that bites hard Alexander could even get a swing to him.
I think it will backfire as Briefly noted it did on Aly. But I’m not claiming that the electors of Bennelong will so hold.
But if anyone can be rehabilitated out of that last NSW Labor term it will be KK.
And the Libs are no cleanskins. It’s NSW. Corruption in Macquarie St has a proud history back to at least Bligh. Plenty of people might end up thinking that letting KK do to Bennelong what she did to NSW might not be worse than letting Trumble continue doing to Australia what he has been doing to Australia.
Bw
They can count themselves as ‘very lucky’!
Id imagine John Ruddick would be asked to come out and help JA.
Keneally has no record of achievement in anything associated with her public life.
There is nothing positively memorable in her time as a minister or as premier.
Then she fell into the unimportant gig as head of Australian Basketball which was short and predictably unremarkable.
She was but one of a conga line of people who gave evidence icac. Big deal she happened to be in government with them so of course she would be expected to give evidence.
She wrote some anti-Pell stuff. Nothing overly challenging there.
There is no basis in fact to think she will be anything better than she has been to date.
She was chosen for personality over ability.
dave says:
Tuesday, November 14, 2017 at 7:09 pm
Briefly
This WA company – OCEAN GROWN ABALONE LIMITED
Ticker OGA
Listed on ASX today.
I’ll have look 🙂
Thanks!
rossmcg
Yep. I thought he’d just sit on the backbench and do nothing but he pressed on with his housing stuff even when it was obviously not popular with most Libs.
I didn’t think much of his proposed solution (access to superannuation) but he was reminding his party that there is a problem.
Kristina knew who to butter up on the way up. It doesn’t mean she was complicit in any way with anything that they did.
She also knew who to kick when they were on the way down and of no more use to her.
This is NSW.
Buggered if I will let anyone tell me that she is corrupt herself! As I actually have spoken with people that would know.
C@tmomma @ 7.31 pm
Just about everyone in NSW, other than the local equivalents of those who are currently backing Roy Moore in Alabama, knew full well how rotten the NSW ALP government was by 2011. If Ms Keneally knew but chose to try to persuade NSW voters like me to re-elect them, she was complicit, and into deceit on a grand scale to boot. If she didn’t know, she was living on another planet. Either way, it’s no qualification for future public office.
It’s always been obvious that it was just a matter of time before Keneally got back into politics. She’ll be a formidable candidate and, dare I say it, MP.
As for this supposed Obeid smell, can I just point out that Foley was associated to some degree with Ian McDonald, and that hasn’t affected him. Baird was closely associated with the brown paper bag crew and that never affected him. I hate to say it but I reckon most voters don’t really care about corruption per se. It wasn’t the corruption that took NSW Labor down (lets not forget, the full extent of the corruption only came out after Labor lost power); it was the incompetence, policy paralysis, and particularly the lack of public transport construction. I see no sign, in stark contrast to federal Labor, that NSW Labor has truly addressed those issues – hence why they are still behind in the polls.
Given the popularity of federal Labor’s suite of policies, and given the general antipathy of Sydneysiders towards the Liberal Party at the moment, I think Keneally and Labor will be able to successfully navigate the Obeid factor, and channel the utter frustration that most people have towards Turnbull into a big swing to Labor.
I’m going out on a limb and predicting that Keneally will win the by-election.
Barney in Go Dau @ #635 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 7:10 pm
The Southern Highlands has forever been a bit de rigueur for the Tories so I wouldn’t see that as anything more than keeping up with the Joneses (sic), the Hollow Wombats, and sundry, rarely as a principal residence, but a tad of Pitt Street farming, enough black Angus to each have a name, a few deductions here and there, and jolly hockey sticks weekends all round, tennis even.
shiftaling @ #633 Tuesday, November 14th, 2017 – 7:09 pm
with Lord Downer of the Fishnets all flustered and sweaty