ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

The ReachTEL poll for October comes in not a lot different from the ReachTEL poll for September.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News, conducted last night from a sample of 2399, has Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, unchanged from the last poll on September 28. So far the only primary vote numbers we have are inclusive of a 9% undecided rating: at first blush, they suggest the Coalition on around 37.5%, Labor on 38.5% and the Greens on One Nation on 10% apiece, although forced responses of the undecided would probably bring the major parties back a little. Those figures should be forthcoming soon-ish.

The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten 51-49 as preferred prime minister, down from 52-48. Malcolm Turnbull’s performance is rated good or very good by 25%, poor or very poor by 40%; for Bill Shorten, the corresponding numbers are 28% and 38.5%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,128 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 23
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  2. The other question that I haven’t seen answered yet (and it may already have been), as per Bernard Keane in today’s Crikey, is who told De Garis about the AFP raid?

  3. ” Dave has confessed. So Dave is gonna have to grass up his mate. Then the mate will probably have to grass up someone else.”

    Yup. this still has a ways to run, and its not going to be a good look if the trail reaches back into FairWork.

  6. SMH headline to Kenny article:

    The fight between Turnbull and Shorten just got personal

    Just got personal? Pull the other one.

  8. C@t, and Grimace, if you’re around, and others, you might find this long read from The New Yorker interesting ~

    Purdue launched OxyContin with a marketing campaign that attempted to counter this attitude and change the prescribing habits of doctors. The company funded research and paid doctors to make the case that concerns about opioid addiction were overblown, and that OxyContin could safely treat an ever-wider range of maladies. Sales representatives marketed OxyContin as a product “to start with and to stay with.” Millions of patients found the drug to be a vital salve for excruciating pain. But many others grew so hooked on it that, between doses, they experienced debilitating withdrawal.
    Since 1999, two hundred thousand Americans have died from overdoses related to OxyContin and other prescription opioids. Many addicts, finding prescription painkillers too expensive or too difficult to obtain, have turned to heroin. According to the American Society of Addiction Medicine, four out of five people who try heroin today started with prescription painkillers. The most recent figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest that a hundred and forty-five Americans now die every day from opioid overdoses.

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/10/30/the-family-that-built-an-empire-of-pain?mbid=nl_Weekly%20102417&CNDID=50169544&spMailingID=12210730&spUserID=MjAyNDE1NzYxMDQ4S0&spJobID=1262123069&spReportId=MTI2MjEyMzA2OQS2

  9. Too many Government figures knew this raid was about to happen to suppose that it was not a well co-ordinated politicial strategy.

  11. [I do not think the constitution should be an interpretive piece of literature. I reckon that it one document that really must be taken literally for the clarity it provides to all Australians.]

    There would be a big fucker of a dam on the Franklin River and no Mabo were that the case.

    We are better off in this country for mostly inscrutable and highly intelligent judges progressing the development of the constitution.

  12. I have little trust or respect in our institutions of government anymore. Once they were reasonably decent but now one knows they have been privatised, politicised or stacked.

    We are moving towards a Putinest oligarchy “guided democracy”.

    The LNP is using the once impartial organs of givernment to attack democratic opponents.

    The media is overwhelmingly in support or unquestioning. (NewsLtd, ABC, SBS, Fairfax, Sky etc).

    The main opposition is pretty weak, unfocussed or even secretely agreeing.

    I am very pessimistic for the future of our country.

  13. Amusing story. Incidentally the branch president of the Liberal party down here work for one of my work’s primary stakeholders. I often see her in meetings but never talk politics with her and I’d doubt she knows I’m an ALP member.

    Anyway today the discussion got onto the parlous state of the internet here, and naturally turned to the NBN which is here and rolling out. The Lib branch president declared that because the NBN was here our internet woes were coming to an end. This was met with uproarious laughter around the table and ‘OMG what did she just say?’ looks exchanged all round. She ended up laughing and saying ‘well yes, but it will be fibre down the main street, even if most households won’t have fibre, certain areas definitely will.’

    Seems the NBN is so much of an issue for the govt even their own members are willing to admit it’s a second rate service.

  15. Dan G:

    Whenever the subject of whether Cash should resign or not is brought up, there’s only one word that tips the scales for Yes: Hadgkiss.

    She owned that decision lock, stock and barrel. Nobody else could possibly be blamed for his appointment.

  16. ItzaDream @ #157 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 9:04 pm

    C@t, and Grimace, if you’re around, and others, you might find this long read from The New Yorker interesting ~

    Purdue launched OxyContin with a marketing campaign that attempted to counter this attitude and change the prescribing habits of doctors. The company funded research and paid doctors to make the case that concerns about opioid addiction were overblown, and that OxyContin could safely treat an ever-wider range of maladies. Sales representatives marketed OxyContin as a product “to start with and to stay with.” Millions of patients found the drug to be a vital salve for excruciating pain. But many others grew so hooked on it that, between doses, they experienced debilitating withdrawal.
    Since 1999, two hundred thousand Americans have died from overdoses related to OxyContin and other prescription opioids. Many addicts, finding prescription painkillers too expensive or too difficult to obtain, have turned to heroin. According to the American Society of Addiction Medicine, four out of five people who try heroin today started with prescription painkillers. The most recent figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest that a hundred and forty-five Americans now die every day from opioid overdoses.

    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/10/30/the-family-that-built-an-empire-of-pain?mbid=nl_Weekly%20102417&CNDID=50169544&spMailingID=12210730&spUserID=MjAyNDE1NzYxMDQ4S0&spJobID=1262123069&spReportId=MTI2MjEyMzA2OQS2

    Hi Itza, do you have any knowledge of Ibogaine for treating addictions?

  20. The letter of the law versus the spirit of the law, Even a quick look on Wikipedia shows it has been an age old argument with even the great bard “writing numerous plays dealing with the letter versus spirit antithesis, almost always coming down on the side of “spirit”, often forcing villains (who always sided with the letter) to make concessions and remedy”. About right and tomorrow and the High Court will so hold.
    But make sure you stock up on your we was robbed arguments, High court stacked with conservatives etc, etc

  21. I am hopeful but not confident about the HC tomorrow. As I have mentioned before it seems the conservatives are ‘luckier’ when it comes to the High Court.

    Balancing that it’s not so much about the distinction between black letter law and the spirit. ‘Reasonable efforts’ need to be made and with the exception of X that doesn’t appear to be the case.

  22. To get to the top of the legal profession as a HC Judge one is the archetype conservative having climbed the social and political ladder. Knowing all the “right” people.

    Like all HC decisions it will be a political one dressed up in a legal costume to confuse the plebs.

    Joyce will be safe. The LAW demands it.

  23. shellbell
    [I do not think the constitution should be an interpretive piece of literature. I reckon that it one document that really must be taken literally for the clarity it provides to all Australians.]

    There would be a big fucker of a dam on the Franklin River and no Mabo were that the case.

    We are better off in this country for mostly inscrutable and highly intelligent judges progressing the development of the constitution.

    Whatever happens tomorrow this is one of the best comments made so far re this whole subject.

  24. Further,
    [We are better off in this country for mostly inscrutable and highly intelligent judges progressing the development of the constitution] if there is a spare High Court judge next time we need a Governor general throw him in the job as well.

  25. bemused @ #165 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 9:17 pm

    Hi Itza, do you have any knowledge of Ibogaine for treating addictions?

    None at all bemused. I’d not heard of it. Googling brings up lots of stuff, among which along with it being a serotonin reuptake inhibitor (the way many contemporary antidepressants work) via one of its metabolites, this caught my eye, from a German study:

    “The cerebellar nucleus responds to small doses with a stimulation of the sympathetic system, leading to a fight or flight reaction. High doses, however, lead to a vagal dominance, or a ‘feigned death.'” In other words, the ibogaine trip is so intense that it places your body under the same stress as nearly dying does.

    in which they say that dose depending (something I bang on about endlessly and boringly with everything down to and including alcohol) the effects can be ‘flight and fright’ – that’s the adrenaline thing, with fast heart, open airways, wide eyed, blood rushing into the muscles, ready set go – and then in higher doses the opposite effects – vagal, or parasympathetic effects, with slow heart to the point of stopping, falling blood pressure, or as they call it, feigned death, as in a profound faint, which can be fatal. Never faint in a phone box (remember phone boxes?), if you can’t fall down to get the blood back to your brain, good night Irene.

    The other thing about psycohactives is whatever doors they open, and whatever revelationary and unitary experiences they usher in, the risk is you don’t ‘come back’.

  27. We’ve had a bit of light rain in Sydney. Meanwhile, the Hunter Valley, including Newcastle, and parts of the Central Coast between Sydney and Newcastle, have been subjected to a barrage of severe thunderstorms, with hail up to 3-5 cm in places.

  28. ItzaDream @ #174 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 9:47 pm

    bemused @ #165 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 9:17 pm

    Hi Itza, do you have any knowledge of Ibogaine for treating addictions?

    None at all bemused. I’d not heard of it. Googling brings up lots of stuff, among which along with it being a serotonin reuptake inhibitor (the way many contemporary antidepressants work) via one of its metabolites, this caught my eye, from a German study:

    “The cerebellar nucleus responds to small doses with a stimulation of the sympathetic system, leading to a fight or flight reaction. High doses, however, lead to a vagal dominance, or a ‘feigned death.’” In other words, the ibogaine trip is so intense that it places your body under the same stress as nearly dying does.

    in which they say that dose depending (something I bang on about endlessly and boringly with everything down to and including alcohol) the effects can be ‘flight and fright’ – that’s the adrenaline thing, with fast heart, open airways, wide eyed, blood rushing into the muscles, ready set go – and then in higher doses the opposite effects – vagal, or parasympathetic effects, with slow heart to the point of stopping, falling blood pressure, or as they call it, feigned death, as in a profound faint, which can be fatal. Never faint in a phone box (remember phone boxes?), if you can’t fall down to get the blood back to your brain, good night Irene.

    The other thing about psycohactives is whatever doors they open, and whatever revelationary and unitary experiences they usher in, the risk is you don’t ‘come back’.

    You may be wondering why I asked.
    I have recently seen someone, who developed an addiction after some serious surgery, try it.
    The results have been nothing short of amazing.
    It looks like complete recovery in a week.

  30. Mention of the Franklin River case reminds me that my OH and I visited Tasmania while the protests were in force. The dam was actually to be built on the Gordon River just below where it is joined by the Franklin, which would have been flooded by the dam.

    We took a river cruise along the Gordon from Strahan on Macquarie Harbour. It happened that our cruise boat operator was ferrying supplies to protesters camped at the site of the proposed dam. It is truly magnificent scenery in this part of Tassie.

  34. bemused @ #177 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 9:52 pm

    You may be wondering why I asked.
    I have recently seen someone, who developed an addiction after some serious surgery, try it.
    The results have been nothing short of amazing.
    It looks like complete recovery in a week.

    I sensed that there was a back story, and good to hear it’s a good one, not the contrary, like one I read as I scrolled around about the girl watching her boy friend tripping out and die in front of her in a hotel bed in Thailand.

  35. [frednk
    If the journalists turn up first there is a chance there has been a tip off. I would have thought reporting the misleading of the senate would have been a nice little story. Looks like Buzzfeed alone could see the opportunity. Says a lot about the CPG.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-dash-for-cash-when-offtherecord-is-turned-on-20171025-gz8eaz.html]

    Off the record.

    Surely there is a large difference between off the record back-grounding of a number of sources and giving a tip off that is purely political.

    The first is about constructing a story while the second is the entire story.

  36. ItzaDream @ #183 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 10:09 pm

    bemused @ #177 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 9:52 pm

    You may be wondering why I asked.
    I have recently seen someone, who developed an addiction after some serious surgery, try it.
    The results have been nothing short of amazing.
    It looks like complete recovery in a week.

    I sensed that there was a back story, and good to hear it’s a good one, not the contrary, like one I read as I scrolled around about the girl watching her boy friend tripping out and die in front of her in a hotel bed in Thailand.

    It was not undertaken lightly and was with the support of a GP.
    Given how effective it can be, I am surprised it is not used in Australia, as it is in places like Canada.

  39. La Tingle’s article on Cash

    “But more significantly, in one fell swoop, the ROC appears to have confirmed it is exactly what its critics have always charged it was – yet another body which reflects the Coalition’s willingness to use the powers of government to stomp on those who disagree with it by choosing such a contentious, old case directly linked to the Leader of the Opposition.”

    Unfortunately it appears to have crueled a sighting of the elusive Real Malcolm ™

    “It’s the sort of boofheaded thuggery that you would normally associate with Tony Abbott, just at the moment in time when Malcolm Turnbull appeared to be finally breaking out of the last remnants of his predecessor’s idiotic, ideological agenda by successfully getting an energy and climate policy through his party room, and with an end to the same-sex marriage debate in sight.”

    Media leaks about AFP AWU raids a disaster for Turnbull, Cash and government
    http://www.afr.com/opinion/between-a-roc-a-leak-and-unrighteous-indignation-20171026-gz8wek?btis

    One interesting thing is below the Rowe cartoon posted earlier is the caption
    “frg use only. publication date 26 oct 2017. david rowe. malcolm turnbull’s waiting room, afrp raids, michaelia cash. David Rowe”

  41. swamprat
    Steelydan
    A request for integrity and honesty is too revolutionary!!
    You are just an illustration of what i said.

    You said nothing of the sort this is what you said.

    To get to the top of the legal profession as a HC Judge one is the archetype conservative having climbed the social and political ladder. Knowing all the “right” people.

    Like all HC decisions it will be a political one dressed up in a legal costume to confuse the plebs.

    Joyce will be safe. The LAW demands it.

  42. Grimace, I used Firefox on Android, on the to right menu,select addons and on that page search for “PB Comment”
    You can then install it like a desktop extension

  43. I don’t think a plain reading of s44 will provide any insight into what the HC will do.
    The same HC ruled that expenditure on the postal survey was urgent and unforseen despite the fact that it was neither.

  44. bemused @ #185 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 10:12 pm

    ItzaDream @ #183 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 10:09 pm

    bemused @ #177 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 9:52 pm

    You may be wondering why I asked.
    I have recently seen someone, who developed an addiction after some serious surgery, try it.
    The results have been nothing short of amazing.
    It looks like complete recovery in a week.

    I sensed that there was a back story, and good to hear it’s a good one, not the contrary, like one I read as I scrolled around about the girl watching her boy friend tripping out and die in front of her in a hotel bed in Thailand.

    It was not undertaken lightly and was with the support of a GP.
    Given how effective it can be, I am surprised it is not used in Australia, as it is in places like Canada.

    A GP someone was lucky to know then. I’m off for the night bemused, and can only offer this link after a quick google, without any background on the publication or author. The chat about psychoactives and how when and why is a good one, but there’s a thunderstorm threatening, and a bed calling. Nighty night.

  45. A large part of me agrees with swamprat, if the government was 5 seats up, Barnaby’s position would be a lot more precarious.

    I have the same view as you.

  46. The High Court ought not make a ruling based on political expediency. It should base its ruling on law.
    We shall know tmrw afternoon if this is indeed the case.

    Night all

  47. Steelydan

    You said nothing of the sort this is what you said.

    —-
    Oh! you were responding to my last message on the political HC, not my penultimate one on the degenerate nature of contemporary Australian public (private) institutions.

    My sincerest Michaelia apology.

  48. Peter Love.
    Obviously I am not a lawyer but as far as I understand the law was written to stop people from having allegiances to a foreign power. Why would the High Court plunge the Australian Government into chaos, maybe even having to change the constitution, when it can stick to the spirit of the law and simply define the law better. It’s just the vibe of the thing.
    Like Shellbell stated.
    We are better off in this country for mostly inscrutable and highly intelligent judges progressing the development of the constitution.
    Not saying Shellbell believes Barnaby and Co are going to be fine.

    My call is 5 will be fine, Luldlum and Roberts gone and maybe Waters as she would have always known where she was born.

  49. Steelydan

    “Why would the High Court plunge the Australian Government into chaos, “!!!
    ———

    Thank uoi Steelydan, you revolutionary.

    Exactly my point.

    Why would the HC plunge a Liberal Government into chaos (or more chaos than its normal level of chaos).

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