ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

The ReachTEL poll for October comes in not a lot different from the ReachTEL poll for September.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News, conducted last night from a sample of 2399, has Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, unchanged from the last poll on September 28. So far the only primary vote numbers we have are inclusive of a 9% undecided rating: at first blush, they suggest the Coalition on around 37.5%, Labor on 38.5% and the Greens on One Nation on 10% apiece, although forced responses of the undecided would probably bring the major parties back a little. Those figures should be forthcoming soon-ish.

The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten 51-49 as preferred prime minister, down from 52-48. Malcolm Turnbull’s performance is rated good or very good by 25%, poor or very poor by 40%; for Bill Shorten, the corresponding numbers are 28% and 38.5%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,128 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 1 of 23
1 2 … 23

  1. Aqualung @ #2254 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 4:43 pm

    KayJay I only see C++ in the Google shop. I am out of touch with these things these days but are C+ and C++ the same things?

    AR Has made an addon for use with Poll Bludger. He has entitled this as “C+”. This makes Poll Bludger much easier to use with a quote function. Emojis are Ok and also an Add Blocker.

    C++ is (I understand/sort of) a programming language and nothing to do with Poll Bludger.

    Below details of C+ for Chrome and Firefox

    Chrome Extension
    https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/pb-comments-plugin/onjomgpfepfmffelldjhpapljdfiodpi
    Firefox Plugin
    https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/pb-comments-plugin

    Bye. ☮ 🕊

  2. Don

    Thanks for the reference to Grazon. I will give it a try. I have been extremely lazy during the winter and am only now starting to get with the mowing and yard maintenance.
    I have done 2000 steps today and my hips hurt like hell. A good rest will see me right to start again in the morning.

    🐸 the closest I can get to a choccy frog.

  3. From the previous thread…

    phylactella
    Unfortunately, I think that the people who might help shift 2PP to 55-45 or better either
    1. Don’t follow news (printed/TV/online)
    2. Don’t care about any omnishambles
    3. Take notice of only the right-wing journos in DT, Hub, or Courier-Mail

    Most voters are mostly disengaged from politics most of the time. The default position of the overwhelming majority of voters is that politics is mainly theatre – repetitious, tedious, trivial and demeaning theatre. They pay no attention to it.

    The current anti-incumbent lean in the polls reflects very sustained pressure on individual and household budgets and the disintegration of the Right-Positive plurality rather than any of the day to day match-play. It also signifies the decadent state of the Liberal brand.

  5. That NBN question in the Reachtel shown on the last thread is an absolute killer for Trumble.

    He’s out there saying the NBN is a trainwreck, and no one really wants to disagree with him on that.

    But 80% think it’s his or NBNCo’s fault (and who’s in charge of NBNCo ultimately?). Only 6% buy the lie that it was Labor’s fault. Even the diehards can’t bring themselves to sing the team song “It’s All Labor’s Fault” on this one.

    I don’t think I’ve seen a polling question quite like it. If Trumble was going around saying he had a bipartisan position on this with Labor and yes it really was all his fault he’d struggle to get such a lopsided result.

  6. Elsewhere in Crikey today Bernard Keane goes in to bat for Cash, displaying woeful disregard for the Westminter principle that a minister and his/her staff are indivisible. If one errs all err. She must resign. Obfuscating damages the system. Malcolm knows better but does not give a hoot for principle. Never has in politics, to my knowledge.

  8. KayJay @ #2 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 2:07 pm

    Don

    Thanks for the reference to Grazon. I will give it a try. I have been extremely lazy during the winter and am only now starting to get with the mowing and yard maintenance.
    I have done 2000 steps today and my hips hurt like hell. A good rest will see me right to start again in the morning.

    🐸 the closest I can get to a choccy frog.

    Thanks from me too on the Grazon, I’ll be trying it on my lawn after other products have got some, but not all weeds.

  9. Can anyone give me a quick run down on what eventually happened at the Estimates concerning the questions of Adani and the overseas ‘secret’ fundraising approaches

  10. There are two significant problems for Trumble with that NBN poll,he is Mr Agile Internet, Tone might be able to deflect it as he ‘is not a tech head ‘, but not Brian.

    Also the NBN migration is a learned experience for everyone it doesn’t matter if you are wealthy or a self funded retiree you will get the same crap experience along with everyone else.

  14. “……John Reidy
    There are two significant problems for Trumble with that NBN poll,he is Mr Agile Internet, Tone might be able to deflect it as he ‘is not a tech head ‘, but not Brian……….”

    Turnbull’s NBN problem is he stood at Abbott’s side when they made the decision to ” demolish the NBN”. It’s all of his own doing. He OWNS it now.

  15. pritu @ #6 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 5:19 pm

    Elsewhere in Crikey today Bernard Keane goes in to bat for Cash, displaying woeful disregard for the Westminter principle that a minister and his/her staff are indivisible. If one errs all err. She must resign. Obfuscating damages the system. Malcolm knkws better but does not give a hoot for pronciple. Never has in politics, to my knowledge.

    The thing is we all know what it looks like. That both the ROC and the raid were orchestrated by the government. They have form, they have motive, and of all the paperwork of all the organisations and all the donations made in the past 10 years, they went looking for Shorten.

  17. The Westminster principle died a horrible death ages ago. I’m not sure I can even remember the last time a single minister resigned because of anything their department did, let alone a single staffer.

  18. I interpreted Keane’s defence of Cash, that she shouldn’t resigned, as a deeply cynical reflection of the current state of ‘Westminster’ system.
    She definitely should resign, but because of the poor state of governance, she shouldn’t have to resign. Bishop and the others only resigned after an extended period due to the damage it was inflicting on the government, not because of any principle.

    Unlike Howard in 1996, when the Liberals took government in 2013, it was already a tired, damaged 4th term government. Reflecting no principles at all.

  20. Thanks KayJay. And did you say it will work on a Samsung phone running chrome and/or Firefox. Sorry to go through this again. I was really struggling to go backwards on that last thread

    🍰

  21. Surprise, surprise.

    After two days of front page headlines about how the AWU and Shorten are in deep trouble, the Oz currently has no online headlines now Cash and Turnbull are feeling the heat.

  22. WHETHER YOU agree with it or not, GetUp! is one of the most robust and policy-relevant voices in politics in contemporary Australia. That it gets up the collective nose of the government and its clamorous supporters is hardly surprising. Note Herr Senator Abetz’s staccato fulminating against it at every opportunity afforded him by his News Corp supervisors.

    GetUp! is routinely challenging the passivity and complacency of the electorate; the falangist tendencies festering within the Coalition, the incompetence of the Turnbull government, and the mindless partisanship of the Murdoch media. It provides invaluable alternative information and analysis to what is offered by our mendicant politicians and their media masters. As such, GetUp! is one of the most necessary and healthiest tonics presently available for Australia’s faltering democracy.
    ..

    The whole shambolic affair suggests either Government conniving with the ROC (whose days will certainly be numbered in the event of a Shorten Labor victory at the next election), or clumsy stupidity among the senior levels of the ROC and the AFP. Either way, this is dangerous. Where will it all end? Will the next raid be on academics’ offices because they offer political analyses critical of governments? Are we going to see the CWA being raided because some of its urban branches support a “Yes” vote in the same-sex marriage postal survey?

    Whoever made the decision to action the raids has demonstrated almost unbelievable heavy-handedness, by adopting this way over the top approach, especially at this time. It looks like we have an ambitious, but numbskull, bureaucrat (or a small number of them) at the top responding to the growing crisis of the Turnbull Government as opinion polls go south and as the decision of the High Court on the eligibility of Barnaby Joyce to sit in Parliament looms darkly above it.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/raids-on-awu-and-attacks-on-getup-should-alarm-citizens,10862

  23. lizzie
    “Judith Sloan on the Drum firmly against Cash staying.”
    The Far Right don’t like Cash for some reason, I assume she must be a key Turnbull backer . Bolt has basically said she should go as well and said it’s a misuse of government resources to raid a union (bizarro world).

  24. Senior Indigenous and legal voices have criticised Malcolm Turnbull for reportedly rejecting the Uluru statement in favour of a symbolic model of constitutional recognition, calling it “a despicable act of mean-spirited bastardry”.

    News Corp has reported that Turnbull voted against a submission in favour of the Uluru statement recommendations, which include embedding an Indigenous voice to parliament in the constitution, at a cabinet meeting this week, saying a referendum proposing that change was “too ambitious” and would not get majority support.

    He instead reportedly suggested a return to a symbolic recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in Australia’s founding document.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/26/turnbulls-uluru-statement-rejection-mean-spirited-bastardry-legal-expert?CMP=share_btn_tw

  25. Not “bizarro world” at all, Bolt is the one calling a spade a spade. This is a straight forward abuse of power, and that is exactly how it would be reported if the ALP tried it in government. All this piddling around “what and when the staffer knew” is using quaint semantics to ignore the elephant.

  26. [lizzie
    Alice Buzzfeed reporting.
    Judith Sloan on the Drum firmly against Cash staying.    ]

    Can’t wait to get the BuzzFeed podcast, “Is It On!”, tomorrow, It will be interesting to get the background and more info on their discoveries.

  27. Boerwar @ #7 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 5:20 pm

    Meanwhile, back in the real world, the housing bubble is going ‘hiss’ quite loudly. The only remaining question is whether it will go ‘hisssssss’ or ‘hiss bang’.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/robert-gottliebsen/sydney-apartment-has-cracked/news-story/08de0a7afc89b20bea91b87eebc0a7d9

    I’m not sure Gottliebsen will be the stopped clock that predicts the crash, but I wouldn’t bet against him either.

    Eventually housing prices, especially Sydney housing prices have to correct. We definitely saw a slow down last quarter. Restrictions on the ease of access to credit and on the flow of money from China are also as he notes and will definitely have (are having) an impact.

    But cracked? We won’t know for a while and maybe he’s picked it, or maybe it’s just a breather before it goes silly again.

    Least painful result would be a slow hiss and a return to a more sensible equilibrium between earnings and house prices. But as someone largely insulated from any problems that would arise I can be selfish and admit I would enjoy the schadenfruede if it did go bang and Trumble and his moronic mates like Morrison are left holding the baby. “It’s all Labor’s fault” will work about as well for him then as it does on the NBN. The Karma of seeing the “Best Economic Managers” overseeing a serious recession would be delicious and the destruction of that myth would actually have significant long term benefit for us all.

  29. But I have to say, and I don’t mind admitting this, even as Leader of the Opposition: when Member for Wentworth rolled the former Prime Minister, I thought my job would get harder but I actually thought politics would get better. I think the Australian people thought it was a chance to put some faith and hope back into politics. But the Prime Minister, by all his actions ever since that event two years ago, has systematically destroyed the faith and hope of people who thought he would be better than what he has turned out to be. And what we know is that the Prime Minister has a particular style of destruction. When all else fails him, he chases his opponents:

    · Ask Peter King, the former member for Wentworth.

    · Ask Brendan Nelson

    · Ask Tony Abbott

    · Ask Kevin Rudd

    Well, I just want to advise the Government on this fact: Australians have worked this Prime Minister out.

  31. Diogenes @ #17 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 5:44 pm

    The Westminster principle died a horrible death ages ago. I’m not sure I can even remember the last time a single minister resigned because of anything their department did, let alone a single staffer.

    It was Howard that killed the Westminster principle. If you remember, he began hemorrhaging ministers soon after he was first elected PM. Faced with losing them all, he instead decided to abandon the concept of ministerial responsibility.

  32. Reply to KayJay from previous thread – gerbils ate the original.

    There is a box with ‘Page n’ in it and a button with ‘Go’ in it up above where you enter comments.
    You can use that to jump to any page you wish.
    Now, you may not know the page number, so take a guess and use the result to refine your guess to home in on the required page.
    I usually get it 2nd or 3rd guess.
    AR is a whizz!
    Not running iPhone any more, but I would expect if you can install plugins in Chrome or Firefox on the iPhone, you can. Android allows.

  33. Crossbench senator Nick Xenophon is prepared to take Senator Cash at her word.

    ‘In my dealings with Senator Cash she’s always been pretty straight up and down with me,’ he told ABC radio, adding the Labor call for her resignation was not reasonable.

    His Liberal leanings on show again.

  34. P1
    Yes, I think he was losing ministers at the rate of one a month until he ditched the policy. I don’t know about other states but no minister ever got sacked in SA no matter how bad their department is.

  36. Maybe i am just not reading widely enough but, i have not seen any articles from the LNP ‘insiders’ like Kenny, Hartcher, etc re the Cash crash (& burn), most are from other writers.
    Did i miss something?

  37. Richard Glover is such an apologist for the coalition government. NBN not the fault of Turnbull because we don’t want to pay for fast broadband. Or something.

  38. ratsak @ #27 Thursday, October 26th, 2017 – 5:54 pm

    But cracked? We won’t know for a while and maybe he’s picked it, or maybe it’s just a breather before it goes silly again.

    I reckon Gottliebsen is probably right. You only have to see the number of new apartment blocks in Sydney that are mostly unoccupied to see why. The apartment market is now totally stuffed – the only question is whether or not it will bring the housing market down with it.

  43. KayJay:

    Thanks for the chokkie frog!

    Grimace:

    Thanks from me too on the Grazon, I’ll be trying it on my lawn after other products have got some, but not all weeds.

    Grazon takes a couple of weeks to show any effects, so you have to be patient.

    If you want to definitely, absolutely, kill the lot in one hit, even blackberry (which laughs at Roundup, though it is recommended for it, all it does is produce distorted leaves the next year, then back to normal the next) combine the two.

    That is, make up a standard Grazon mix, and then add the required amount of full strength Roundup as though there is no Grazon.

    I discovered this when I sprayed with Grazon and found when I went around a week later that there were no obvious ill effects, I had hoped there would be so that I could spray the ones I missed (you always miss some).

    I decided to add Roundup to the mix, which gives a quick kill on most weeds (three or four days to wilting) and thus I would be able to see where I had sprayed the blackberry by the friendly fire of the Roundup on the surrounding broad leafed weeds and grasses.

    To my surprise and delight, not only did this work, but the mixture had a much faster effect on the blackberry, and, what’s more, killed it in one application.

  45. adrian I was ready to throw my phone at the wall during that alleged “journos” forum. I used to get the odd comment read out on his show. I haven’t had 1 since Guthrie took over. As a matter of fact he almost never reads out political texts anymore. And his defence of Cash this afternoon bordered on the bizarre. I’ll lay odds he didn’t watch any significant footage from last night. Cash couldn’t even look anyone in the eye when answering questions.

  46. When the Turnbull govt promises to consult with the community and then rejects the community’s carefully considered decision, it’s a blow for democracy and a slap in th face to the First Peoples.

  48. bemused

    KayJay found the posts, because he re-posted them for me. I think his question was how to post the links to the posts, which you suggested.

Comments Page 1 of 23
1 2 … 23

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *