ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

The ReachTEL poll for October comes in not a lot different from the ReachTEL poll for September.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News, conducted last night from a sample of 2399, has Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, unchanged from the last poll on September 28. So far the only primary vote numbers we have are inclusive of a 9% undecided rating: at first blush, they suggest the Coalition on around 37.5%, Labor on 38.5% and the Greens on One Nation on 10% apiece, although forced responses of the undecided would probably bring the major parties back a little. Those figures should be forthcoming soon-ish.

The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten 51-49 as preferred prime minister, down from 52-48. Malcolm Turnbull’s performance is rated good or very good by 25%, poor or very poor by 40%; for Bill Shorten, the corresponding numbers are 28% and 38.5%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,128 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  3. Does an AFP investigation make a matter ‘sub judice’? If so, it makes any investigation of anything the Govt doesn’t want investigated easy to thwart!

  5. Breaking News: The Federal Government has introduced a new protocol for handling welfare overpayments. Called the Joyce Rule, it will mean any persons who have been overpaid by the Commonwealth or receved a payment to which they were not entitled, does not have to pay it back. Further, overpayments received between notification of ineligibility and finalisation of any Court order to stop the payments coul also be kept. Treasurer Morrison said it was “compassionate conservatism” at its best, and was not aimed at any single group.

  6. Jaeger @ #1050 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 5:09 pm

    “Well, I for one am quite keen on the idea of MPs being solely Australian citizens. If you want to be in it, then at the very least you need to be 100% Australian with no other allegiances. It’s a simple thing to accomplish if you put your mind to it.”

    BB – I like my MPs having minds, too.

    Excellent point. Section 44 is a very cheap way of keeping out imbeciles like Malcolm Roberts. Who would want to change that?

  7. Gecko @ #1100 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 5:54 pm

    If Windsor had run he’d have been labeled with ‘sour grapes’.

    Yeah this. I actually think Windsor sitting out might increase Barnyard’s risk. There’s now no distraction of reheating past fights. It’s Baaaaaaaarnaby’s record and Trumble’s record that are front and centre. Neither help him get back.

  9. Turnbull’s brash disregard for the separation of powers by enunciating so decisively on a matter before the country’s most superior court was surprising.

    But it was compounded by the contempt he conveyed to the wider nation by keeping a clearly compromised deputy prime minister in place, when even Joyce himself figured he was toast.

    Understand this. Joyce, a big-time player in the government, has never been a validly elected member of Parliament. Not once over five federal elections since he arrived in 2004 as a kind of a quasi-independent Nats outsider, and leaves now as a parliamentary stranger. An outsider all along.

    …
    Turnbull’s political judgment throughout this unprecedented episode has been shocking. After accepting Matt Canavan’s resignation – pending the court’s ruling – he perversely clung to Joyce and Nationals deputy Fiona Nash, insisting they remained in cabinet.

    It was 100 per cent wrong. Once again, Turnbull could be seen governing for the internals. Canavan it turned out, was the only one validly elected.

    The PM’s legal repudiation caps off his worst week and that is saying something.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/no-judgement-and-no-answers-chaos-engulfs-the-turnbull-government-20171026-gz9apg.html

    Amanda of course insisting there was no chaos, business as usual.

  12. ratsak

    If only being an imbecile was counted as a foreign citizenship that you couldn’t renounce

    Roberts has had his moment in the spotlight and is determined that it should continue.

    The One Nation leader said it would take “a mighty person” to fill Mr Roberts’ shoes.

    “I’ve lost a great man in Malcolm Roberts. He has been my backbone in supporting me on the floor of Parliament, I think he’s just done a fantastic job. I’m devastated, absolutely devastated,” she said, before announcing he would stand for One Nation in Senator Hanson’s hometown of Ipswich.

    “This is the heart of One Nation. Ipswich is where I ran my fish and chip shop, it’s where my politics started, it’s where I won the seat of Oxley in 1996. And I believe the people of Ipswich will be embracing Malcolm Roberts as their candidate and hopefully electing him to the state Parliament.”

    Mr Roberts described Senator Hanson as a “magnificent woman”, said he accepted the court’s decision entirely and he would have more to say on a “fair and balanced” TV network in the coming days.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-roberts-to-run-for-queensland-seat-as-one-nation-tensions-boil-over-20171027-gz9ste.html

  15. Well, finally got to read the HC judgement.

    My takeaway is that George Brandis’s arguments have been shat upon from a great height, and if the man had any integrity he would resign today.

  16. I stopped trusting the Australian people a long time ago. My cynicism was confirmed when they elected a Coalition gov’t headed by Tony Abbott.

    >briefly @ #1046 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 4:36 pm

    Question
    briefly @ #1027 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 4:54 pm

    How? There is nothing stopping a dual citizen from entering parliament unless they are unwilling to renounce.

    …

    Australia is unique in disqualifying dual citizens from its Parliament. It is anomalous. It is undemocratic. It says that we do not trust each other.

  18. Ides of March

    Don

    As on our on the ground member, thoughts on there being a candidate that could at least give Joyce a run for his money?

    No.

    Joyce is in like Flynn.

    Well, not quite the same, obviously, despite rumours to the contrary. Unsubstantiated allegations only, patently false.

    There is no credible candidate whatsoever to unseat Barnaby.

    I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. And again.

    Up here, sheep vote.

    (cries into his NZ Marlborough SB, decides to have another to drown his sorrows. Barnaby may be a kiwi, which sullies the brand somewhat, but at least they know how to make a decent white)

  19. Every post on PB i made via my laptop for the laat couple of weeks has not appeared. I used different emails. I am doing this ond using my smartphone.
    This ia a pain.

    Another pain in the arske is out if only for a few weeks.
    Barnaby don’t let the door hit you on the butt on your way out.

  20. Malcolm and Barnaby. What a team. And advised by thet great legal mind George Brandis sc dh fe.
    FE is his latest award. F#ckin Embarrassment.

  21. Bilbo
    You sounded good on the radio today. I caught your interview on the radio this aernoon.

    Hey there was no mention of all your lab rats continuously running the PB maze!

  22. Briefly:

    If Joyce loses the by-election it will probably be to Labor. That will make the Parliament an “interesting” place.

    Don’t be ridiculous. Labor has not run an electable candidate in this district since Bill McCarthy, 1978 – 1987, thirty years ago, and that was for the NSW state electorate(s), not Federal. Good bloke, Bill.

    He was known as ‘the best Liberal we’ve ever had’.

    Joyce will win.

  23. BK:

    How long before, and who will introduce it, Barnaby’s “indiscretions” become a matter in the campaigns for New England?

    Won’t make a blind bit of difference.

  24. Ratsak:


    Yeah this. I actually think Windsor sitting out might increase Barnyard’s risk. There’s now no distraction of reheating past fights. It’s Baaaaaaaarnaby’s record and Trumble’s record that are front and centre. Neither help him get back.

    You simply have no idea.

    Your candidate is?

  25. Very exciting day, we were all tuned in to this at work.

    In terms of the by-election in New England, I heard Antony Green say that Barnaby starts favourite, just that if Windsor runs it will be a close result (still a Nat win) and if Windsor doesn’t run it will be a very comfortable Nat win.

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