ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

The ReachTEL poll for October comes in not a lot different from the ReachTEL poll for September.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News, conducted last night from a sample of 2399, has Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, unchanged from the last poll on September 28. So far the only primary vote numbers we have are inclusive of a 9% undecided rating: at first blush, they suggest the Coalition on around 37.5%, Labor on 38.5% and the Greens on One Nation on 10% apiece, although forced responses of the undecided would probably bring the major parties back a little. Those figures should be forthcoming soon-ish.

The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten 51-49 as preferred prime minister, down from 52-48. Malcolm Turnbull’s performance is rated good or very good by 25%, poor or very poor by 40%; for Bill Shorten, the corresponding numbers are 28% and 38.5%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,128 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  4. Has Barnaby renounced his NZ citizenship yet?

    Will the new NZ Labour Government accept his renounciation, if tendered, before 2 December?

    So little time …

  5. Jennet must have gone to kinder garden with or something like it to give the ever portentous Dr Gary Rumble 2 minutes in his coverage.

  7. Ides of March

    Will Ron Taber run again? (Another indy in new England)

    Rod Taber is most unlikely to run again. He lost a lot of money when he attempted to get elected last time, he did not get enough votes to gain financial recompense.

  8. Gutless press conference by Turnbull.
    One question.
    Completely gutless BiGD
    Complete lack of leadership.
    Loses majority in parliament.
    Loses coalition leader and deputy leader
    Loses deputy pm as same time.
    past legislation placed in question
    questions over stability until bi-election
    share market dropping
    dollar falling
    and jetting off overseas today, WTF, I mean WTAF
    and no indication of who is acting pm whilst he is away

  11. Player One @ #947 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 3:51 pm

    briefly @ #897 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 3:28 pm

    Go out and ask around. You will find that around 3/5 common-or-garden voters think the prohibition on dual citizens is ridiculous. This is because they themselves or their spouses or other members of their families are dual citizens.

    Don’t be ridiculous. Start a campaign to change the constitution by all means, but don’t expect to succeed. Most Australians would oppose such a change.

    briefly, I’m not sure if you are asking around, or just brow beating people and taking their silence as agreement.

  14. IoM

    Common sense says if you ask the disinterested Australian voter to say if they think people standing for federal parliament should be exclusively Australian citizens they are going to say ‘yes’ in droves.

  18. Question

    briefly, I’m not sure if you are asking around, or just brow beating people and taking their silence as agreement.

    I don’t browbeat fellow voters. But I do listen to them.

  19. Malcy delays trip

    maybe realises there may be a minor tiny little crisis just happened, or too scared to leave bishy as acting pm

  23. Mr Money

    Malcy delays trip

    Only long enough to sort Canavan’s appointment and the appointment of the cockroach as acting PM.

    The Beersheba gig is the 31st so he got time.

  25. any legislation, directions, etc ticked off by barny as a minister is subject to a double hit

    he was not a minister as the high court found
    and he did not take reasonable steps care in determining whether he held dual citizenship

    reasonableness is the main factor in any decision making process

  27. Voice Endeavour @ #845 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 1:36 pm

    @ ratsak – why is it an overreach?

    When BJoyce applied, he signed a stat dec stating that he was not a dual citizen. He did so without knowing if the information he was signing was true or not. That is breaking the law.

    And comes with potentially very serious penalties, including custodial, as everybody on social security is endlessly reminded in no uncertain terms.

    Just imagine the foaming-at-the-mouth apoplexy and lust for the harshest of punishments that would flood from the government and its supporters if that had been a ‘dole bludger’ committing a comparable level of fraud over a 20 year period.

    Joyce should be required to pay back every penny he illegally scammed from the sacred taxpayer, with interest, forfeit his very generous pension, and serve substantial jail time.

  30. Anna Henderson
    (@annajhenderson)
    Mr Windsor says he is not going to put his wife through another election campaign

    October 27, 2017

  31. Question…. for example, when the news broke earlier that Joyce had been dumped I was in a factory nearby, buying something. I was being assisted by a 30-something y.o. production hand. Her mother also works in the same place and is English. I told the younger woman that Joyce had been booted out of the Parliament as I read it from the phone. She was not visibly moved but just said “I don’t see what the fuss is, really. It seems ridiculous to me.” So there you are….dual citizen, born here, worker, a-political….thinks it’s rubbish, which it is.

  33. Just Me:

    Joyce should be required to pay back every penny he illegally scammed from the sacred taxpayer, with interest, forfeit his very generous pension, and serve substantial jail time.

    Dream on!

  34. barny keeping all monies from when he knew or was aware he was dual citizen is not right.

    this is one debt that should not be waived.
    you dont keep collecting money when you have doubts over whether you are entitled to it as barny did.
    fine if it is unclear and not aware like waters and ludlam who resigned when the doubt was there.

    give him the same treatment and compassion that centrelink does.

  37. Question
    briefly @ #966 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 4:02 pm

    Question

    briefly, I’m not sure if you are asking around, or just brow beating people and taking their silence as agreement.

    I don’t browbeat fellow voters. But I do listen to them.

    Are there any polls that back up your anecdotes?

    Dunno.

  38. briefly @ #978 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 3:08 pm

    Question…. for example, when the news broke earlier that Joyce had been dumped I was in a factory nearby, buying something. I was being assisted by a 30-something y.o. production hand. Her mother also works in the same place and is English. I told the younger woman that Joyce had been booted out of the Parliament as I read it from the phone. She was not visibly moved but just said “I don’t see what the fuss is, really. It seems ridiculous to me.” So there you are….dual citizen, born here, worker, a-political….thinks it’s rubbish, which it is.

    A fine opinion, but nothing short of a successful referendum is going to change the Constitution and overturn (unanimously) settled legal precedent. Anecdotes won’t cut it.

  39. Which of Canavan’s stories ended up before the High Court?

    His first argument was that his mum filled in his form without his knowledge when he was an adult. Presumably, this act involved forging the signature of another adult, which I would imagine amounts to fraud of some sort.

    Then the argument was he was ALWAYS eligible for Italian citizenship just because his mother was.

    Either way, he was clearly eligible under citizenship by descent in the same way the others were. So … what am I missing?

    I would have put money on them all going (except Xenophon, whose situation was far too complicated to have occurred to most reasonable people). I don’t understand how Canavan’s ignorance of the descent rules puts him in the clear while ruling others out.

  43. Breifly I’m sure we can find plenty of anecdotes different to yours.

    I told my boss who is a Kiwi dual citizen and conservative voter about the decision and he said “serves them right”.

    My colleague who is a Solomon Islander dual citizen and totally nonpolitical was also happy with the decision.

    They might of course just be keeping me happy.

    Anecdotes are not the way we change our constitution

  44. A R

    A fine opinion, but nothing short of a successful referendum is going to change the Constitution and overturn (unanimously) settled legal precedent. Anecdotes won’t cut it.

    Yeah…it’s hard to change…too hard, perhaps. We will find it impossible to abolish the monarchy, to better provide for the rights of first peoples and to establish equal opportunity for all electors in relation to the Parliament….Imperialism is embedded.

  45. briefly, I would agree with changes to make renouncing foreign citizenship easier, but there are many more important issues. Like the person in your anecdote “I don’t see what the fuss is, really”.

    I would not vote to change the constitution to allow dual citizenship parliamentarians.

  48. I think it was zoomster who suggested that once elected there could be a period to renounce dual nationality/leave ofice of profits/ leave the army etc, before taking your seat. I like that approach.

  49. don @ #981 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 2:40 pm

    Just Me:

    Joyce should be required to pay back every penny he illegally scammed from the sacred taxpayer, with interest, forfeit his very generous pension, and serve substantial jail time.

    Dream on!

    Oh, I know it is not going to happen. But it should, and it should be said.

    Boris @ #982 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 2:41 pm

    barny keeping all monies from when he knew or was aware he was dual citizen is not right.

    this is one debt that should not be waived.
    you dont keep collecting money when you have doubts over whether you are entitled to it as barny did.
    fine if it is unclear and not aware like waters and ludlam who resigned when the doubt was there.

    give him the same treatment and compassion that centrelink does.

    Yep. Gets the same that he and his pack dish out to others. Nothing more, nothing less.

    Only way these mongrels learn is to get a serious taste of their own medicine.

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