ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor

The ReachTEL poll for October comes in not a lot different from the ReachTEL poll for September.

The latest ReachTEL poll for Sky News, conducted last night from a sample of 2399, has Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, unchanged from the last poll on September 28. So far the only primary vote numbers we have are inclusive of a 9% undecided rating: at first blush, they suggest the Coalition on around 37.5%, Labor on 38.5% and the Greens on One Nation on 10% apiece, although forced responses of the undecided would probably bring the major parties back a little. Those figures should be forthcoming soon-ish.

The poll also finds Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten 51-49 as preferred prime minister, down from 52-48. Malcolm Turnbull’s performance is rated good or very good by 25%, poor or very poor by 40%; for Bill Shorten, the corresponding numbers are 28% and 38.5%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,128 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor”

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  2. Ok landed in Singapore read the news, gob smacked, cowardly decision just as well they did not have something serious to decide like SSM. Hopefully it galvanises the right in New England they now bullshit when they see it. Barnaby Joyce a kiwi try selling that to them they know when someone has been done over. Hurting big time, won the Canavan bet but ouch.

  3. AFAIK it’s not illegal to be in Parliament in violation of S44 (legally it’s simply not possible), it is only illegal to be in Parliament on a fraudulent basis, so if you are in Parliament and know you are in violation of S44 that is illegal. So if Barnaby suspected this was the decision he and probably Nash probably did commit an illegal act.

  7. Ides of March

    Don

    Thank you for the correction.

    No worries. Although this is a pseph site, I am still surprised anyone knew about the candidates here in New England apart from Joyce and Windsor. You must be very knowledgeable.

  8. So Nick Xenophon was musing about what to call the remnants of his party left behind in the Senate after the NX departs the NXT. I’m thinking they’ll choose the Australian Democrats. 😉

  9. [Steelydan
    Ok landed in Singapore read the news, gob smacked, cowardly decision just as well they did not have something serious to decide like SSM.     ]

    I’m sure you can find a Pommie Pub for some humble pie! 🙂

  12. Steelydan @ #1002 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 3:25 pm

    cowardly decision just as well they did not have something serious to decide like SSM. Hopefully it galvanises the right in New England they now bullshit when they see it.

    Yes, how dare those bullshitting cowards unanimously interpret the Constitution as meaning precisely what it actually says.

  13. guytaur @ #810 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 2:53 pm

    cnni: Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce has been removed from parliament for being a New Zealander cnn.it/2zIppoj pic.twitter.com/UYqPU4E8Mw

    Johnny Depp knows

    Depp should be invited to come and campaign against Barnaby.

    Fulvio Sammut @ #952 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 3:53 pm

    Has Barnaby renounced his NZ citizenship yet?

    Will the new NZ Labour Government accept his renounciation, if tendered, before 2 December?

    So little time …

    I think they should give it careful and unhurried consideration. About 3 months should do.

  14. Elaugaufein @ #1000 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 4:27 pm

    AFAIK it’s not illegal to be in Parliament in violation of S44 (legally it’s simply not possible), it is only illegal to be in Parliament on a fraudulent basis, so if you are in Parliament and know you are in violation of S44 that is illegal. So if Barnaby suspected this was the decision he and probably Nash probably did commit an illegal act.

    Joyce could have at least had the good graces to ceremonially resign from Cabinet, at least, once he thought he was a goner.

  16. Don

    As on our on the ground member, thoughts on there being a candidate that could at least give Joyce a run for his money?

  17. Boris @ #982 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 4:11 pm

    barny keeping all monies from when he knew or was aware he was dual citizen is not right.

    this is one debt that should not be waived.
    you dont keep collecting money when you have doubts over whether you are entitled to it as barny did.
    fine if it is unclear and not aware like waters and ludlam who resigned when the doubt was there.

    give him the same treatment and compassion that centrelink does.

    I certainly don’t think that would be unreasonable.

  18. jrostant: Plibersek: the loss of penalty rates for 700k workers lost by 1 vote #citizenship7 and Barnaby was ineligible #citizenship7

  20. g
    When the Gubbies win by one vote, the Speaker does not cast a deciding vote. If one of the Gubbies votes is subsequently found to be a no-vote…

    Pretty complicated!

  21. rickeyre: From Google Maps a look at the sweeping farmlands of Point Piper, the small country town where the new Minister for Agriculture lives pic.twitter.com/jod6rs90zy

  22. briefly @ #979 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 4:08 pm

    Question…. for example, when the news broke earlier that Joyce had been dumped I was in a factory nearby, buying something. I was being assisted by a 30-something y.o. production hand. Her mother also works in the same place and is English. I told the younger woman that Joyce had been booted out of the Parliament as I read it from the phone. She was not visibly moved but just said “I don’t see what the fuss is, really. It seems ridiculous to me.” So there you are….dual citizen, born here, worker, a-political….thinks it’s rubbish, which it is.

    I interpret that as indifference to Joyce’s fate.
    So I agree with her.
    You choose to put another interpretation on it to fit with your obsession.

  23. Further highlighting the perplexing double standards of The Turdball;
    Canavan: Resigns from cabinet, but cleared by HC.
    Bananaby: Clings to cabinet, at The Turd’s request, found ineligible, and admits expecting to be found so, while the world’s most brilliant lawyer ignores his client’s instincts and instructs the HC how it is going to rule on the matter.

  24. Steelydan
    Ok landed in Singapore read the news, gob smacked, cowardly decision just as well they did not have something serious to decide like SSM. Hopefully it galvanises the right in New England they now bullshit when they see it. Barnaby Joyce a kiwi try selling that to them they know when someone has been done over.

    If Joyce loses the by-election it will probably be to Labor. That will make the Parliament an “interesting” place. It would really mean that New England had voted its disaffection with the incumbents; surely, voted to change the Government. This would have to be thought very unlikely. But stranger things have happened. This would be as momentous as the Bass by-election in 1975, following the resignation of another Deputy PM, Lance Barnard.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_New_England

  25. I’m not normally one to fear getting a prediction wrong (I get plenty of practice too), but with my prediction on Tuesday that the AWU raid would turn to shit and my prediction on the HC case today being almost completely right (didn’t count on them find the Member for Mining Companies Italian Citizenship wasn’t actually a thing), I’m feeling even more emboldened that usual.

    So here goes.

    Next Newspoll will have Shorten leading on PPM by double figures.

  27. Anyway, I doubt that I’m obsessed. I think the democratic argument is persuasive… I’m a democrat….subscribe to our fundamental equality…think the provision is archaic…the Imperialists differ…2 bad.

  29. I really doubt she had ever read the document, or could care less about it. Her feeling was that the decision amounted to the disenfranchisement of people just like her and her family. She’s right.

  31. Well, I for one am quite keen on the idea of MPs being solely Australian citizens. If you want to be in it, then at the very least you need to be 100% Australian with no other allegiances. It’s a simple thing to accomplish if you put your mind to it.

  33. A R @ #1010 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 4:33 pm

    Steelydan @ #1002 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 3:25 pm

    cowardly decision just as well they did not have something serious to decide like SSM. Hopefully it galvanises the right in New England they now bullshit when they see it.

    Yes, how dare those bullshitting cowards unanimously interpret the Constitution as meaning precisely what it actually says.

    Yep. This is well worth a repost as well –

    shellbell (Block)
    Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 2:48 pm
    Comment #803

    7-0

    Kicker at {60}

    Finally, while it may be said that it is harsh to apply s 44(i) to disqualify a candidate born in Australia who has never had occasion to consider himself or herself as other than an Australian citizen and exclusively an Australian citizen, nomination for election is manifestly an occasion for serious reflection on this question; the nomination form for candidates for both the Senate and the House of Representatives requires candidates to declare that they are not rendered ineligible by s 44.

    It is necessary to bear in mind that the reference by a house of Parliament of a question of disqualification can arise only where the facts which establish the disqualification have been brought forward in Parliament.

    In the nature of things, those facts must always have been knowable.

    A candidate need show no greater diligence in relation to the timely discovery of those facts than the person who has successfully, albeit belatedly, brought them to the attention of the Parliament.

  34. Bushfire Bill
    Well, I for one am quite keen on the idea of MPs being solely Australian citizens. If you want to be in it, then at the very least you need to be 100% Australian with no other allegiances. It’s a simple thing to accomplish if you put your mind to it.

    What you’re really saying is you do not trust 65% of the Australian electorate.

  35. guytaur,
    Turnbull is probably the first Agriculture Minister to have boasted that he probably owns more cattle than any of the Nationals MPs!

  36. briefly
    If Joyce runs he wins, he just gained another percentage point today. He may go home to the family, gotta be on his mind.

  37. briefly @ #1025 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 4:50 pm

    Anyway, I doubt that I’m obsessed. I think the democratic argument is persuasive… I’m a democrat….subscribe to our fundamental equality…think the provision is archaic…the Imperialists differ…2 bad.

    I think this is the proper way to look at it. I think there are reasonable cases for and against, but I seriously doubt there is any particular mood for change.

    If this question was the subject of the postal farce you wouldn’t see anything like the return rate the SSM question has received.

    There are simply far more important fish to fry and until a clear majority makes it clear that they demand reform of this section it is going to remain as it is. Thanks to today’s HC decision the clarity of the eligibility question is confirmed so no one can complain about any uncertainty. Do your due diligence and get on with it.

  39. briefly @ #1027 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 4:54 pm

    I really doubt she had ever read the document, or could care less about it. Her feeling was that the decision amounted to the disenfranchisement of people just like her and her family. She’s right.

    How? There is nothing stopping a dual citizen from entering parliament unless they are unwilling to renounce. And if they are unwilling to renounce, do they really want to represent Australia?

  41. @briefly, it’s all well and good to run commentary on what you think the law SHOULD be, however 7 Justices have just determined what it IS. I’ll be expecting to hear more from you in the future as you’re ramping up your promotion of a referendum on the matter though.
    However, like many others here, I believe there are much more important referendums to be had. And a successful republic vote would result in this current issue being updated to fit modern Australia anyway.

  42. paulkidd: You know who else went to the polls on 2 December? #NewEnglandVotes twitter.com/dufussy/status… pic.twitter.com/YCKEkaMd5E

  43. AshGhebranious: If Joyce has been ineligible till only this year, he may not be entitled to pension he accrued while in senate and hor #auspol

  44. jamiesonmurph: PS. Suspicious package at @Barnaby_Joyce’s Armidale office was just paperwork from Canberra “wrongfully packaged”, police said #auspol

  47. briefly @ #1024 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 4:50 pm

    Anyway, I doubt that I’m obsessed. I think the democratic argument is persuasive… I’m a democrat….subscribe to our fundamental equality…think the provision is archaic…the Imperialists differ…2 bad.

    Any dual citizen is at liberty to qualify for election by renouncing their other citizenship.
    Seems perfectly democratic to me.

  48. Question
    briefly @ #1027 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 4:54 pm

    I really doubt she had ever read the document, or could care less about it. Her feeling was that the decision amounted to the disenfranchisement of people just like her and her family. She’s right.

    How? There is nothing stopping a dual citizen from entering parliament unless they are unwilling to renounce.

    Think about it….Joyce has renounced. Is he in any way changed by this? Is he somehow made more Australian? All he has done is complete a bureaucratic step in compliance with the procedures of another country.

    Australia is unique in disqualifying dual citizens from its Parliament. It is anomalous. It is undemocratic. It says that we do not trust each other.

  49. briefly @ #1026 Friday, October 27th, 2017 – 4:54 pm

    I really doubt she had ever read the document, or could care less about it. Her feeling was that the decision amounted to the disenfranchisement of people just like her and her family. She’s right.

    I doubt she meant that and your interpretation is wrong as their enfranchisement was unaffected.

  50. Not to forget the ROC. This has been pointed to by Ewin Hannan of The Australian:

    Ewin Hannan‏Verified account @EwinHannan 1h1 hour ago

    ROC has refused 2 explain why AWU raided over 2006 docs when law requires docs only be kept for 7yrs -now says won’t answer due 2 leak probe

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