Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; ReachTEL: 53-47

New and new-ish federal voting intention numbers from Essential Research, ReachTEL and YouGov, plus a bonanza of same-sex marriage polling that is consistent only in pointing to a big win for “yes”.

Three new results on federal voting intention:

• The Guardian reports Labor’s lead in this week’s Essential Research fortnightly rolling average is 54-46, up from 53-47 last time. Primary vote numbers to follow later today. (UPDATE: The full results reveal the Coalition is down a point to 36%, Labor up one to 38%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 7%)

• A ReachTEL poll for Sky News, conducted on Thursday from an unusually big sample of 4888, has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, out from 52-48 at the previous poll on August 23. The primary votes are all but unchanged, with the Coalition steady on 34.5%, Labor down 0.3% to 36.4%, the Greens down 0.1% to 10.2% and One Nation up 0.6% to 11.0%. On 2016 election flows, the result would have come in at 54-46. The poll has Malcolm Turnbull leading Bill Shorten 51.7-48.3 on preferred prime minister; Turnbull’s performance rated as very good or good by 26%, average by 34% and poor or very poor by 39%; Bill Shorten’s respective numbers coming in at 31%, 31% and 37%.

• The YouGov poll for FiftyAcres maintains its idiosyncratic form in having the Coalition with a 51-49 lead on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with 50-50 a fortnight ago. After producing somewhat more conventional primary vote numbers last time, it’s back to having both major parties deep in the doldrums, with Labor down two points to 33% and the Coalition steady on 34%. The Greens and One Nation are also steady on 11% and 9%, with minor players soaking up the difference. Labor is credited with a fairly conventional 73% of Greens preferences, with the Coalition getting 68% from One Nation and 60% from the rest. A two-party result based on 2016 election flows would have come in at around 53-47. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1054.

Same-sex marriage survey latest:

• The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ yesterday released the first of what will be weekly estimates on the response rate for the same-sex marriage survey. It estimates that 9.2 million survey forms have been received, amounting to a turnout of 57.5% of eligible voters. The result will be announced on November 15.

• The ABS figure is at odds with two polls that have emerged in the last few days, which can only partly be explained by postal lag effects. A ReachTEL poll for Sky News, conducted from a sample of “nearly five thousand people”, found 79.5% identifying as having voted. This included 64.3% who said they had voted yes compared with only 15.5% for no, with another 6.0% saying they still intended to vote yes and 5.7% for no. The other poll is a survey for the Marriage Equality campaign finding 77% of those eligible had voted, including 69% of the 18-to-24 cohort and more than 80% of those aged over 65. However, the Essential poll comes in a good deal lower, with 47% saying they had already voted, up from 36% a week ago, and another 33% saying they will definitely do so.

• Essential Research now has support for same-sex marriage at 61%, up from 58% last week and 55% the week before, with opposition tracking from 34% to 33% to 32%. Of those who voted, 64% said they voted yes compared with 30% for no.

• Without providing further detail, Sky News relates that a ReachTEL poll “separate” to the one it commissioned itself had a 72-28 forced response split in favour of yes, reducing to 61-39 among those who said they had already voted.

“ The Sky News ReachTEL poll has 47.2% very concerned or somewhat concerned about “what might be taught in schools if same sex marriage is legalised”, compared with 42.8% for somewhat or not at all concerned.

• The YouGov poll found 64% of respondents saying they had discussed the survey with family, 54% with friends, 21% with work colleagues and 14% with others, with only 17% saying they had not discussed it with anyone.

Other recent attitudinal findings:

• The ReachTEL poll found a 53-47 split in favour of Labor on who was best to manage the energy crisis and rising power prices. It also found 41% would support more coal seam gas mining if it meant reduced gas prices, with 36% opposed.

• Absent qualifications about lower prices, a Research Now survey of 1421 respondents for the Australia Institute found 49% would support a moratorium on fracking in their own state, with 24% opposed. Seventy-four per cent said they would support higher renewable energy targets in their own states.

• The YouGov poll finds 42% saying Tony Abbott should “play a quieter role and not be so critical of Malcolm Turnbull”, compared with 31% for “he should continue to speak up in the media, even if it involves being critical of Malcolm Turnbull”. Results were fairly similar across different voting intentions, with the exception of One Nation, whose supporters were notably harder on Turnbull. It was also found that 40% thought it wrong of Tony Abbott to relate the headbutt incident to the same-sex marriage campaign, compared with 34% who thought it was right, with clear distinctions emerging in this case betweeen Labor/Greens and Coalition/One Nation supporters.

• Also from the YouGov poll, 59% were in favour of a royal commission into the banking industry, with 19% opposed.

• Essential Research has results from its occasional questions on trust in institutions and media organisations, but all we have from The Guardian is that the the federal police performed best on the former, with religious organisations, trade unions and political parties bringing up the rear, with the ABC as always taking the mantle of most trusted news organisation.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,728 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor; ReachTEL: 53-47”

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  1. Trump uses painfully exaggerated Spanish accent to say ‘Puerto Rico’ at Hispanic event

    During an address to Latino leaders for Hispanic Heritage Month, President Donald Trump appeared to put on an exaggerated Spanish accent when discussing the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico.

    “We are also praying for the people of Puerto Rico,” Trump said, putting on an accent to laughs from the crowd. “We love Puerto Rico.”

    After repeating the island’s name one more time in the exaggerated accent, he then said “we also love Puerto Rico” in his own accent.

    Later in the speech, Politico reported, Trump attempted to compliment Latinos by discussing how “tough” they are.

    “I know some of them, and believe me, they’re very tough and they’re very smart,” Trump told the assembled Hispanic leaders. “Sometimes they’re too tough. But that’s OK. I have to deal with it. I have to deal with it. Fantastic people.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2017/10/watch-trump-uses-painfully-exaggerated-spanish-accent-to-say-puerto-rico-at-hispanic-event/

  2. I think this has to be the end of Murdoch’s Sky bid if its not dead already.

    Hacking a spy’s computer is treason for citizens of a country the last I looked.

    Rupert Murdoch’s News Group Newspapers, the publisher of the Sun and the now-closed News of the World, has apologised in court and agreed to pay damages to a former army intelligence officer whose computer and emails were hacked.

    In a hearing at the high court on Friday, News Group admitted that a private investigations firm had hacked the computer of Ian Hurst and that its boss, Jonathan Rees, had then sent intercepted information to the newspaper publisher.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/oct/06/murdochs-news-group-admits-benefiting-from-hacking-of-army-officers-emails?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  7. gt

    I only use the Samsung when I’ m away from home.

    It’s a quirky thing. Absolutely nothing is where you expect it to be and everything doesn’t work in the way you’d expect it to!

    Firing it up and using it can best be described as an ‘adventure’!

  8. ct

    Thats why iPads are the most popular Tablets. Adventurous is not a word you use in using them.

    Work almost exactly the same as the phones.

    Now you can get the older models that do almost everything the new ones do for about the same price as the cheap tablets too.

  9. gt

    On the tunnelling near by you have my sympathy.

    The vibrations and rumble noise is enough to drive anyone nuts. I’m experienced with putting up with it going on for months.

  11. ct

    Thanks. I think I may have adjusted. It may be white noise now. Its amazing what we can adapt to if we have to. Of course when it stops it will be hello insomnia again.

  12. ct

    I am not criticising your choice. At the time of buying I don’t think there were any iPads in a comparative price range. Its only this or last year that happened.

    Plus if you don’t have an iPhone it makes even more sense to go with Android as an operating system.

  15. MikeDelMoro: ABC News: Robert Mueller’s team met behind closed doors today w an unknown group of attorneys & chief judge of US District Court in DC

  17. gt

    Yep. The arse dropped out of the price which makes a lot of difference.

    It was a good buy. It takes a bit of fiddling to get it to connect to public networks in the first instance but once it has been connected it’s good at remembering and doing it again when you’re in range.

    Speaking of messaging I’ve been using ‘Whatsap’ to communicate with one of my sisters while she’s O/S (currently at ‘Buggerru’ – I had to hit google maps to locate that!). For something that is popular it’s a woeful application to use.

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. I’m back in the saddle after a good six hours of sleep. The finger is well on the way to being better. Thanks to lizzie and helpers for filling in.

    In an excellent and instructive article Peter Hartcher writes that Barack Obama wanted three attributes of Australia for America. He wanted Australia’s universal healthcare system, its gun laws and its compulsory voting system. These are three of the defining differences between the two societies.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/peter-hartcher-20171006-gyvw2x.html
    The SMH editorial examines the NRA’s cold, dead hands’ grip on the US.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/the-cold-dead-hands-retain-their-grip-20171006-gyvwjz.html
    Mark Kenny looks at the Xenophon phenomenon. And it’s not good news for the SA Liberals, he says.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/xman-becomes-the-exman-nick-xenophon-brings-a-dangerous-xfactor-to-state-politics-20171006-gyvqcs.html
    Paula Matthewson on the logic and ambition behind Xenophon’s move.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/sa/2017/10/06/why-nick-xenophon-is-quitting-canberra/
    David Crowe thinks things will become more difficult for Turnbull in Xenophon’s absence. Google.
    /national-affairs/xenophons-power-play-to-give-turnbull-anew-challenge-to-his-agenda/news-story/1e23d3e7c0c59eb695246675c5c58121
    Michelle Grattan writes that Nick Xenophon, the master of the stunt, is about to indulge in one more before he leaves the Senate for a run at ruling the South Australian roost from its crossbench.
    https://theconversation.com/nick-xenophon-set-to-go-back-to-where-he-came-from-85338
    Tony Wright is more light-hearted over the matter.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/satire/sketch-nick-xenophon-explains-his-real-reasons-for-leaving-canberra-20171006-gyvq7m.html
    Pontificating Paul Kelly wrings his hands over his concerns that socialism might make a comeback Google.
    /opinion/columnists/paul-kelly/conservative-failures-open-door-to-return-of-socialism/news-story/811914e125decfa1227cc44c720257a6
    In the absence of clear motive by the Las Vegas shooter there is a tendency to declare it was not “terrorism”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/las-vegas-shooter-stephen-paddock-islamic-state-and-the-mystery-of-motive-20171006-gyvkav.html

  20. Section 2 . . .

    Wendy Squires concludes an emotional article on the US gun culture with “I know whose heads I’d like to see mounted as trophies, and that is complacent politicians who kowtow to the rabid gun nuts of the NRA.”
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-many-more-people-will-be-killed-before-this-sinks-in-20171005-gyv5sg.html
    Why Americans won’t give up their precious guns.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/06/americans-guns-nra-las-vegas-shooting
    How the NRA has the Republicans by the balls. Google.
    /news/politics/world/how-americas-national-rifle-association-controls-republicans-on-guns-20171005-gyv2pi
    Nick O’Malley explains a killer quirk residing inside Australia’s gun laws.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-killer-quirk-hiding-in-australias-gun-laws-20171006-gyvmho.html
    Mike Seccombe looks closely at how Murdoch has failed to “Foxify” Sky News.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/10/07/murdochs-failure-launch-fox-here/15072948005316
    It seems that in Bangkok sex DOES move the earth!
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/sex-industry-in-bangkok-is-sinking-the-city-literally-20171005-gyvh88.html
    Victoria’s dodgiest landlords and real estate agents will be publicly named and shamed on a blacklist available to tenants as early as next year, the state government has pledged.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/dodgy-landlord-blacklist-and-ban-on-rental-bidding-set-to-ease-renters-woes-20171005-gyvgca.html
    State politicians waved through Malcolm Turnbull’s proposals for a face recognition database and 14-day detention with barely a shrug says Katharine Murphy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/oct/07/casual-acceptance-terrorism-measures-endangers-liberty
    Those clamouring for “protection of religious freedom” should be careful what they wish for, because a wider understanding of religious freedom would threaten the many privileges faith groups continue to enjoy in this country. A quite interesting article.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/hugh-harris/champions-of-religious-freedom-should-be-careful-what-they-pray-for_a_23233274/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    Elizabeth Farrelly has a big spit over the mining madness as she accuses the federal government to be behaving increasingly like some savage pimp, threatening military and fiscal brutality to force us back into a fossil-fuel addiction we yearn to escape.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/in-the-adani-debate-one-side-of-the-brain-is-outshouting-the-other-20171005-gyuzxo.html

  21. Section 3 . . .

    The ACCC will demand ESSO and BHP Billiton explain in more detail why gas supplies from its Bass Strait joint venture will decline sharply next year amid concerns the nation is “being held to ransom”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/held-to-ransom-essobhp-gas-production-drop-to-be-examined-by-accc-20171006-gyvipz.html
    In a very good contribution on the SSM issue Peter van Onselen concludes with “Just because too many opponents of same-sex marriage trampled over gay rights for decades is no reason for the rest of us to do the same to them now: to treat them the way they treated gay Australians. Two wrongs do not make a right.” Google.
    /news/inquirer/samesex-marriage-debate-religious-protections-after-the-survey/news-story/bba7ad7a63fbec9b14c174b70b57aea8
    Richard Ackland bemoans the fact that in the name of safety and fighting terror we are trading away our independence, liberty and identity.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/06/what-new-morsel-of-liberty-can-be-traded-for-the-fantasy-of-safety
    Peter Martin on the shock results on retail spending.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/a-shocker-for-retail-spending-as-consumers-shut-wallets-20171005-gyuwb3.html
    What’s happening to Sydney’s “bible belt”? The decline is being led by the Anglos.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/census-2016-sydneys-bible-belt-is-losing-the-faith-20171004-gyuecs.html
    ABC boss Michelle Guthrie has launched a stinging attack on her commercial television rivals and questioned the commercial strategies of rival media players saying the Turnbull government’s media law reforms were designed to further a “political vendetta”. Can’t argue with that!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/abc-boss-michelle-guthrie-attacks-commercial-rivals-media-law-reforms-20170918-gyjzue.html
    The landing in Australia of another big German player, Kaufland, is sending shivers up the spines of the supermarket duopoly. It has secured an exceptional site close to Adelaide to kick off.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/germanys-kaufland-kick-offs-australian-foray-with-major-supermarket-in-adelaide-20171006-gyvqjq.html
    Phil Coorey on Turnbull’s spat with The Parrot. Google.
    /news/politics/malcolm-turnbull-finally-tips-out-the-jonestown-koolaid-20171003-gytuel
    Rupert Murdoch’s News Group Newspapers, the publisher of the Sun and the now-closed News of the World, has apologised in court and agreed to pay damages to a former army intelligence officer whose computer and emails were hacked. Scum!
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/oct/06/murdochs-news-group-admits-benefiting-from-hacking-of-army-officers-emails
    The Nobel peace prize has been awarded to a Melbourne-born advocacy group that pushed to establish the first treaty to ban nuclear weapons.
    http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/nobel-peace-prize-awarded-to-melbourneborn-international-campaign-to-abolish-nuclear-weapons-20171006-gyw4wh.html

  22. Section 4 . . .

    Richard Dennis wonders what it is that guides governments’ priorities. He says that the Coalition is now in its fifth year in power, yet it spends more time blaming Labor for the country’s problems than spelling out its own plans to improve Australians’ lives.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/submarines-or-rape-counselling-priorities-are-the-measure-of-any-government-20171006-gyvthb.html
    Contrary to Abbott, who argues that pushing renewable energy onto the grid under the Renewable Energy Target (RET) has made power costly and unreliable, rapidly falling prices may now mean that building more wind and solar is the key to bringing wholesale electricity prices down. Google.
    /news/you-could-soon-build-a-wind-farm-without-subsidy-20170928-gyqieu
    Theresa May must sack Boris Johnson and shake up her cabinet if she is to reassert her authority and silence talk of a leadership plot in the wake of this week’s calamitous party conference, Conservative MPs will tell her. The Tories are not motoring at all well!
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/06/sack-boris-and-reshuffle-cabinet-senior-tories-to-tell-may
    What in the hell is Trump up to now? A big, dangerous unicorn?
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/maybe-its-the-calm-before-the-storm-trump-says-as-he-gathers-with-military-leaders-20171006-gyvwru.html
    Alan Kohler says that Trump’s big tax plan was doomed from the start. Google.
    /business/opinion/alan-kohler/donald-trumps-tax-plan-is-doomed-from-the-start/news-story/d3dedaaff81dcbad4759bb4c494d271e
    Jailed former NSW Labor ministers Eddie Obeid and Ian Macdonald and Obeid’s middle son Moses will face a marathon six-month criminal trial in 2019 on conspiracy charges over their alleged involvement in a coal deal. There will more than a few column inches written about this marathon!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/eddie-obeid-his-son-moses-and-ian-macdonald-face-marathon-trial-in-2019-20171006-gyvm1d.html
    This court case will get a bit of attention too!
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/cardinal-george-pell-due-back-in-court-on-historical-sex-offence-charges-20171005-gyvds0.html
    Turnbull is feeling the heat on the NBN and its problems.
    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/oct/06/turnbull-keenly-aware-of-customer-problems-with-nbn-broadband
    Paul Bongiorno writes on haw Pauline Hanson is gunning for Queensland.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/10/07/hanson-gunning-queensland/15072948005306

  23. Section 5 . . .

    The Trump administration has dramatically expanded the number of employers allowed to flout the Affordable Care Act (ACA) policy that requires company healthcare plans to cover contraception at no additional cost.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/06/trump-contraception-birth-control-obamacare-mandate
    An abuse survivor who testified to the royal commission about her treatment at a Catholic school recounts the experience of submitting to the church’s Towards Healing protocol, and the unfeeling homily offered to her by the bishop now responsible.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/law-crime/2017/10/07/failures-towards-healing/15072948005317
    Yet another big storm is headed to the US.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/tropical-storm-nate-kills-dozens-in-central-america-heads-for-us-20171006-gyw0sc.html
    Crispin Hull explores the influence of Martin Luther as the 500th anniversary of his seminal thesis is being celebrated.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/500-years-ago-martin-luther-set-the-world-alight-20171006-gyvna4.html
    On top of his existing portfolios of Immigration, Customs and Border Force, Peter Dutton is soon to also control ASIO, the AFP, the Criminal Intelligence Commission and AUSTRAC. Why does one department need such immense, centralised power?
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/australias-new-security-super-ministry-why-does-dutton-need-so-much-power,10791
    Queensland is destroying tree cover at the rate of 10 square kilometres a day, harming biodiversity while stoking doubts about federal data suggesting emissions from land clearing are in decline. What in the hell is going on?
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/inexplicable-huge-surge-in-landclearing-not-picked-up-in-emissions-data-20171005-gyv0cc.html
    The Independent Parliamentary Expenses Authority released its first report yesterday, aiming to ensure politicians are accountable for the way they spend millions in taxpayer dollars. Eryk Bagshaw has a look at it and on first glance it seems Labor is not highly mentioned.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/politicians-spending-under-the-spotlight-as-first-independent-report-is-released-20171005-gyvftz.html
    The Turnbull government has rejected an opposition proposal to ban the cladding responsible for London’s deadly Grenfell Tower fire, putting it at odds with the Property Council of Australia and the recommendations of a Labor-chaired Senate inquiry. Unless there are significant strengthening of regulations and compliance structures its arguemnts are hollow.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-minister-slaps-down-proposal-to-ban-grenfell-towerstyle-cladding-20171005-gyvell.html
    Jacqui Maley says that the citizenship debate is providing more questions than answers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-the-governments-citizenship-changes-have-been-quietly-shelved-20171005-gyuzyh.html
    Forget the myopic Press Gallery and his crusty political opponents, 23-year-old Caitlin Mary says Bill Shorten’s radio rap this morning will win him a lot of young fans.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/shorten-dabs-on-the-pundits-and-the-haters,10792
    Adele Ferguson tells us that a report into human rights risks in the operations and supply chains of 23 listed companies in the extractives, agricultural and medical equipment is being uses by super funds and unions.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/unions-and-super-funds-up-ante-on-human-rights-abuses-20171006-gyvsvy.html

  24. Section 6 . . . Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe does it again! I love the rear view mirror.

    Jim Pavlidis explains US politics.

    Alan Moir is unconvinced by Turnbull’s efforts on energy.

    I love this one from Cathy Wilcox.

    Trump visits Puerto Rico.

    Peter Broelman takes facial recognition technology one step further.

    Matt Golding farewells Senator X from Canberra.

    As does David Pope.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Ron Tandberg in the US.

    Zanetti has a look at facial recognition too.

    From the US.

    Matt Golding has the animal kingdom looking on at Las Vegas.

    Jon Kudelka inside the NO campaign office.

    Alan Moir with the chookless head.

    A pensive Ron Tandberg gives us this one.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    The YES guard.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/4a55fd3519b24faed00c3293f9f5a09c

  25. Thanks BK. PvO’s column is spot on with this.

    Next up, opponents of same-sex marriage will seek to disrupt the legislative push to enact marriage equality by spruiking concerns about so-called “religious freedoms”. Not the right of religious orders to refuse to marry gays, which is a completely uncontested proposition, but what happens in religious schools, hospitals and even with bakers and taxi drivers who may not want to serve a gay couple.

    The biggest irony of such concerns, apart from the scant international evidence of problems on this front, is that most of the same people who want enshrined rights on this score have long argued against a bill of rights for Australia. Had they gone down a different track back then, they wouldn’t face concerns on this front today.

    To elaborate on the irony, these sudden campaigners for enshrined protections finally know what it feels like to be in a minority. Strange how they didn’t give two hoots about other minorities when those groups sought to make their cases for enshrined rights over the years.

    What goes around comes around is the uncharitable thought that comes to mind.

  28. NZ First have been in Coalition with Labour before, but they don’t like the Greens. I can’t see a Labor-Green-NZF Coalition.

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