BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Two new polls this week bring very little change to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

First up, note new threads below on this weekend’s elections in New Zealand and Germany.

Now to the matter at hand: new polls this week from Essential Research and YouGov have done next to nothing to alter the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, the biggest change being a reversal of a Greens gain last week. The Coalition nonetheless makes a net gain of two on the seat projection, being up one apiece in Queensland and South Australia. No new results on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,226 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. They must have missed the infallibility bit.

    I think the T Abbott line is that the Pope is infallible when his teachings agree with your prejudices.

  2. KayJay

    The checks are telegraphed well in advance and a couple of weeks in advance of a spot check a flurry of activity will take place.

    Any sort of inspection falls at the first hurdle because of the notice.

  3. ‘CTar1

    Bw and briefly (who commented earlier re’ UK Labour being stable currently)

    The Tories only seem to have Plan A…

    And Labour seem to lack the will to even voice an opinion at all on Brexit let alone have a policy. They have decided to pretend it’s not happening.’

    Yep. Both parties risk getting split if they leadership shows signs of getting definite about things…

  4. CTar1 @ #1102 Sunday, September 24th, 2017 – 5:54 pm

    KayJay

    The checks are telegraphed well in advance and a couple of weeks in advance of a spot check a flurry of activity will take place.

    Any sort of inspection falls at the first hurdle because of the notice.

    Exactly so. We, my wife and I, used to have a giggle about it. I would have liked the inspections and complaints handled by police. Even better if I could have picked the police.

    There were plenty of bright spots including the most wonderful sing a longs where the residents, main wards and dementia section would gather.

    If you have ever done one of the annual “have you got all your marbles” checks with your GP (perhaps you are too young) where one has to count backwards from a 100 by sevens and spell “world” backwards you would have been delighted with Marie and I doing the same for amusement now and then. Well, we laughed.

    😎

  5. KayJay

    I’ve had to have enough general anaesthetics over the last couple of years for the count down by sevens routine to be familiar to me.

  6. kayjay:

    From the sounds of your experience the Commonwealth has outsourced the audit to an external agency, whereas previously it used to employ registered nurses to do the inspections. I have no knowledge of whether the previous arrangements resulted in better care than having an external agency do the inspections does.

  7. All four big banks have dropped the $2 “foreign” withdrawal fee. ATMs were introduced to cur down on paying tellers. Just like supermarkets and self-serve checkouts.
    Good riddance to those fees!

  8. CTar1

    Vote 1 when it comes to broccoli, with or without butter, more so with butter though 🙂 Perhaps you could come to a compromise with your dietitian by using unsalted.Vitamin K ? Go for parsley uber vitamin K source.

  9. [I’ve had to have enough general anaesthetics over the last couple of years for the count down by sevens routine to be familiar to me.]

    What’s your best score CTar1?

  10. Just getting back to that photo from the nursing home article of the white bread smeared with whatever that was and served with a couple of pieces of carrot, one piece of broccoli and a couple of tater tots.

    Tater tots? Seriously, actual potatoes are what, $3 per kilo, probably less if you live in a capital city? I don’t know what bulk frozen tater tots cost, but one potato would serve two people, three at most depending on the size. If cost per meal is the motivating factor, then surely real potatoes represent the better value for money.

  11. poroti

    Parsley consumption good. Two varieties in pots right outside my front door (I’m not a gardener but fresh herbs are an essential for me so I have 8 0r 9 pots with a good variety in my courtyard).

    I doubt that I could eat enough so multiple vitamin K pills every day a necessity.

  12. KayJay – “apple, table, penny” to you – and long may we remember the phrase! Not to mention “No ifs, ands or buts”. They use the same words and phrases in every cognitive functions test in the English-speaking world so if you stash them in long-term memory you can fool them that your short-term memory is ok for a while. If you’d want to.

  13. KayJay:
    The “serial-7s ” and/or spell world backwards tests are part of a standardised test usually referred to as a mini-mental state exam, which usually has 30 points (of which the s-7 can score up to 5 depending on when one makes the first mistake). People can, and do, get too used to it so there are variations. This was of little use when, as a Registrar at Concord back in the 80s, I had to admit the Professor of Geriatrics. When asked the first question (what is the year?), he proceeded to give all correct 30 responses from memory.

  14. Hi Guys and Gals
    I trust all are well. I notice some wondering why some are against SSM. My reason is that as around 10% of folks are gay, as I have read in reputable sources, then more young gay couples will be married and “have” children. Which means children never knowing one half of their biology, culture, a mum or dad missing forever. To me, it’s a violation of human rights.
    There’s other factors like fear of losing your job, fear of being ostracised if one does not support SSM, but that can be rectified one way or another. It’s a legal issue.
    The driving thing for me, is the child never knowing a mum or dad, as they are brought into being through donated sperm or egg from somewhere. They will never know who they look like, any inherited medical problems, their inherited personality traits, why they are the person they are.

  15. PO

    In 2012 there were nearly a million single parent families in Oz.

    One assumes that the vast majority were heteros.

    The obvious policy step is to ban hetero marriages.

  16. Jack A Randa @ #1117 Sunday, September 24th, 2017 – 6:47 pm

    KayJay – “apple, table, penny” to you – and long may we remember the phrase! Not to mention “No ifs, ands or buts”. They use the same words and phrases in every cognitive functions test in the English-speaking world so if you stash them in long-term memory you can fool them that your short-term memory is ok for a while. If you’d want to.

    Marie and I used to tell people we lived at 14 High Street, Kensington which was part of the standard at that time.

    Being quite deaf I get the nurse to lean close to me and then later I tell the senior favourite daughter that she (the nurse) wanted to kiss me. SenFD says “you wish”.

    Apple, Penny, Table – Shirt, Brown Honesty. When the nurse wants to ring in odd objects such as a stapler, blue pen etc I object and demand the Apple, Penny etc.

    I treat these occasions as a social event and have a lot of fun.

    “One Foot in the Grave” on TV. Wonderful stuff.

    The usual answer for “Who is the Prime Minister of Australia” – who cares, nobody, Mrs Turnbull, the bloke in charge of headbutting, who knows?

  17. ‘fess/Bw – they look like something you’d get from Maccas.

    From Wiki

    Originally, the product was very inexpensive. According to advertising lectures at Iowa State University, people did not buy it at first because there was no perceived value. When the price was raised, people began buying it. Today, Americans consume approximately 70 million pounds of tater tots per year.

    FMD and then some!

  18. prettyone:
    “Which means children never knowing one half of their biology, culture, a mum or dad missing forever.”

    As others have pointed out, adoption by same-sex couples is already legal. You are conflating issues. Plus, not all, or even a majority, of same-sex couples want to have or adopt childen, just as not all heterosexual couples want (or are able) to bear children.

    Secondly, your statement implies that all children raised within the context of heterosexual relationships (married or otherwise) always know both sides “of their biology”, when this is far from the case. Also, humans are not infalliable, so one biological parent might die when the child is young, or (in the father’s case) before they’re even born. Are the children born in such circumstances inferior to those who are not?

    You’re going to have to do better than that.

  19. CTar:

    Wow I had no idea tater tots were so prolific in the US. And because they jacked the price of them up.

    Again, surely actual potatoes represent better value for money, esp in a nursing home environment where nutrition is as, if not more important measure than cost per meal.

  20. Which means children never knowing one half of their biology, culture, a mum or dad missing forever.

    So why aren’t you railing against Kim Davis and others like her who have kids out of wedlock?

    Pathetic effort PO.

  21. prettyone:
    “There’s other factors like fear of losing your job, fear of being ostracised if one does not support SSM”

    Welcome to the world of LGBT people, who can *actually* lose their jobs, or not be employed, due to certain employers (e.g. Catholic Education) discriminating against them. I think that trumps the hypothetical “fear” of losing your job for being against SSM. My heart bleeds.

  22. c

    I understand that increasingly meal preparation happens off site and is done by third parties.

    Tater tot production would be entirely industrial and mechanized.

    I imagine that, given the tater tot coating of deep fried fat, the very first time the morsel of potato inside the tot is actually touched by a human is when it gets chewed.

    The ‘Home’ perhaps heats the meals when they arrive. Perhaps not.

  23. prettyone:
    “their inherited personality traits”

    Hopefully homophobia isn’t one of them; although technically it is a learnt trait.

  24. Boerwar:

    Yes I can see that happening. Very disturbing that fake food has any place at all in the meal presentation for vulnerable people wholly reliant upon external people and agencies for their care and wellbeing.

    That said I know that many meals on wheels services are being replaced by services that simply purchase frozen meals from the supermarket freezer section for people living in their home, but reliant upon services to stay there. I hope I never get to the point where I take for granted my ability to cook what I feel like and want to eat.

  25. CTaR1

    My guess is that it would be the desired reduction of labour to zero which is the prime determinant of what gets served and how it gets served.

    Tater tots probably have virtually zero human labour in terms of preparation – other than putting them on plates.

    Fish and chip shop owners used to peel and cut their own potatoes into chips.

    The fries are now produced industrially and arrive in bulk.

  26. prettyone
    Hi Guys and Gals
    I trust all are well. I notice some wondering why some are against SSM.

    Not one of the reasons you give are relevant to marriage per se, which is the registration of the existence of a union between two people. They are deflections from this simple matter of law, which will ensure that we will all enjoy equal protection.

    Beyond this, the enactment of reform will be a cause for very great celebration. There will be jubilation..a great increase in happiness stemming from the relief of oppression and the repeal of a form of institutional violence. I take it you prefer repression, you are gratified by violence in some way and that you’d prefer to limit our happiness.

  27. AP
    Public holiday tomorrow so I imagine that if there is one then it would be released on Monday night. But I really don’t have a clue.

  28. CTar:

    It would also have something to do with the convenience factor of tipping a few tater tots out of a bag onto an oven tray.

    Maybe the carrots were of the frozen variety as well as the broccoli. Bit sad really when you think about it.

  29. It is notable that UK has been unable to destroy EU unity during the negotiations, despite ongoing attempts so to do.

    It is also notable that Brexit was a total non-event during the German election.

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