BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Two new polls this week bring very little change to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

First up, note new threads below on this weekend’s elections in New Zealand and Germany.

Now to the matter at hand: new polls this week from Essential Research and YouGov have done next to nothing to alter the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, the biggest change being a reversal of a Greens gain last week. The Coalition nonetheless makes a net gain of two on the seat projection, being up one apiece in Queensland and South Australia. No new results on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,226 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. Agree. On a road he has had 50 dot balls and a few edged fours. Rather than developing skilled players, our selectors choose blokes who can plonk their foot down the pitch and swing. It is bullshit.

  2. ” I take it you prefer repression, you are gratified by violence in some way and that you’d prefer to limit our happiness.”

    Briefly, you wrong me.
    My concern is as always the innocents, the little ones, who need adults to do the right thing.
    Australia has dreadful problems, with indigenous children, one in 8 born with FAS apparently the highest rate in the world – completely up against it from in utero, let alone sexual abuse and violence as they grow. We have children in detention centres, actually being born in detention. We have little children being killed by step-parents after years of abuse and DOCS failing again and again to save them.

    In some ways, the most important way, Australia is going backwards as the welfare of children declines.

  3. prettyone:
    “My concern is as always the innocents, the little ones, who need adults to do the right thing.”

    …because none of those “innocents” will grow up to be gay, where their relationships aren’t afforded the same legal status as heterosexuals.

    Indeed the adults need to do the right thing; but it’s not what you have in mind.

  4. A few years ago I was visiting my sister in hospital when the doctor was applying the standard list of questions to an elderly lady in the next bed. She knew the year, her address, her date of birth (in 1917) but got the Prime Minister wrong. It was June 27, 2013, the day of Rudd’s second coming.

  5. prettyone:
    “with indigenous children, one in 8 born with FAS apparently the highest rate in the world – completely up against it from in utero”

    And what leads them to drink, do you ever stop yourself to ask? Could it be that living as a persecuted minority is stressful – something you probably have little first-hand experience of, and they turn to drink as one way to ‘cope’ – albeit an ineffective and damaging method.

    But let’s continue to treat segments of society as second-class citizens. That isn’t damaging at all…

  6. prettyone:
    “In some ways, the most important way, Australia is going backwards as the welfare of children declines.”

    And same-sex attracted people, by definition, unless they also dabble with opposite-sex encounters, are not capable of producing children with their partners of choice… which leads to fewer unhappy, mistreated “innocents”. Sounds like a win-win. And you want to vote against this? Please spare me.

  7. Botham scored 14 test centuries. Finch can barely get a game for Victoria.

    I know this. I still play the game. Been on the same field as DK Lillee. Had a beer with Joel Garner. What I don’t like is the superior attitude of NSW people toward selection in this country. It annoys me. Answer me this. Was Steve Waugh a better bat than Darren Lehmann?

  8. prettyone

    My concern is as always the innocents, the little ones, who need adults to do the right thing.

    If you’re concerned about the relief of violence and the protection of the innocent then you can commence your action by supporting the reform of the Marriage Act. The current provisions institutionalise the legal repression of an innocent minority. This should be repealed. The No campaign consists of the demonisation of the innocent. This should be named and resisted.

    I agree completely about the need to protect children. I was myself subjected to abuse by a pedophile when I was 8 years old so I’m familiar with the ease with which children can be exploited. I also experienced various other kinds of quite traumatic and alienating violence as a child.

    I can assure you this had nothing to do with ME though it certainly emanated from the puritanism with which I was surrounded. In fact, the repression of LGBTIQ people is completely consistent with the impulse to punish that is directed against First Peoples, women and children.

    Fight patriarchy. Fight violence. Fight for equality. Fight racism. Fight against the puritans and the hypocrites. Fight against homophobia.

  9. Steve777:
    “She knew the year, her address, her date of birth (in 1917) but got the Prime Minister wrong.”

    I was asked the standard orientation questions after having a minor stroke in the mid 00s, in my late 20s (yes, it can happen at any age). I knew I was OK cognitively when asked ‘who is the Prime Minister’ and I had to stop myself saying “unfortunately” after John Howard.

    I heard they don’t ask the patient who the PM is as part of the questioning these days, due to the frequent turnover.

  10. Finch’s day in the sun is over.

    Your parochial premise is as baseless as Nick Maddison’s selection.

    Lehmann was a bloke I wanted to do well. I remember watching him make 240 odd when an early version of pay TV (optus) covered Shield cricket in November 2001.

    Waugh was vastly superior to Lehmann who failed in two ashes series in Oz (1998-1999, 2002-2003). Other than the Sir Lanka tour in 2004 where he scored runs inspired by the passing of David Hookes, Lehmann only made runs v West Indies at their nadir and Bangladesh. He may have made a 90 odd v Pakistan.

  11. confessions @ #1130 Sunday, September 24th, 2017 – 7:05 pm

    I had no idea tater tots were so prolific in the US.

    They’re everywhere, especially in schools. Pretty gross, too. Aussie chips, even the ones that come precut and flash-frozen from New Zealand, are way better.

    Again, surely actual potatoes represent better value for money, esp in a nursing home environment where nutrition is as, if not more important measure than cost per meal.

    Dunno. I don’t think either option actually offers much nutritional value. Potatoes don’t provide all the things a human body needs to run optimally. Processed potato-like nuggets provide even less.

  12. AR:

    If I had to guess I’d say a boiled potato was nutritionally better value than a trans-fat loaded, who knows if it’s potato or not, tater tot.


  13. Kevin Bonham

    ‘Replied to

    Player One @ #643 Sunday, September 24th, 2017 – 9:53 am

    I think I know a little more about the scientific method than you sunshine. In one of my other lives I am a professional scientist. I also did courses devoted to scientific methodology (here I use the word correctly, unlike 95+% of uses you will see in the media) in both political and environmental science departments. You’ve misapplied what you are quoting.

    Kevin that may well be right; but George Carlinis to be taken seriously:

    “Never argue with an idiot. They will only bring you down to their level and beat you with experience.”

    P1 has a lot of experience.

  14. ‘fess

    A good roast roast potato with just a little bit of crisp edge about it is a joy. Particularly if combined with some real home made from scratch gravy and a hint of mint sauce.

    Nutritional value … who cares!

  15. CTar1 @ #1166 Sunday, September 24th, 2017 – 6:33 pm

    About 4 hours of watching cricket once a year is more than enough for me.

    That much?

    I’m really going to give a lot of people on here the shits when I say I haven’t supported the Australian men’s national side since the “underarm incident”. Australia (men) are the cricketing equivalent of Collingwood/Manly. That is, my side is whoever is playing against the Aussies (men only).

    It was with a large dose of schadenfreude that I watched Botham humiliate the Aussies a few months later in the Ashes tour. “Take that you cheating b@st@rds”, thought I.

    NB The Aussie women’s national side are completely different kettle of fish. A credit to the nation, and a joy to watch.

    The men though are archetypal private school wallies. Boorish, arrogant, self-entitled dickheads who are petulant brats when they get their arses handed to them. And long may they have their arses handed to them. W@nkers all.

    There you go. I’ve said it.

  16. DG

    That incident was much mis-understood and much mis-represented.

    The relevant bowler had acquired a duff rotator cuff and could not physically lift his arm above the horizontal.

  17. Hey! Stop dissing the humble potato. As we speak I’ve got a roast chook in the oven with a couple of halved potatoes drizzled with olive oil and sea salt. Bliss. Who needs tater tots?

  18. Dan,

    Kick the hornets’ n]est next time.

    The men though are archetypal private school wallies.

    Except most of them are public school boys.. but they typically are from NSW.

  19. DG

    He manfully continued to the very end.

    (When I told a boatload of Kiwis this true explanation I was nearly deboated on the spot.)

    They WILL cling to their myths!

  20. A potato galette we shared in the Dordogne, baked in goose fat, and chased down with copious amounts of the local red was as close to potato heaven as I have even been.

  21. Fight patriarchy. Fight violence. Fight for equality. Fight racism. Fight against the puritans and the hypocrites. Fight against homophobia

    Pretty… Fight against phobias, wherever they are to be found, including in oneself.

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