BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Two new polls this week bring very little change to the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

First up, note new threads below on this weekend’s elections in New Zealand and Germany.

Now to the matter at hand: new polls this week from Essential Research and YouGov have done next to nothing to alter the BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week, the biggest change being a reversal of a Greens gain last week. The Coalition nonetheless makes a net gain of two on the seat projection, being up one apiece in Queensland and South Australia. No new results on leadership ratings.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,226 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. The Coalition nonetheless makes a net gain of two on the seat projection, being up one apiece in Queensland and South Australia.

    The see-saw continues to go up and down.

  2. I would think with Malodorous Malcolm’s trip through Queensland this week the Coalition might lose the freshly-gained seat by the time of the next Bludgertrack. : )

  3. Sec. of State Rex Tillerson Says 6 Words That Should Terrify Every American

    When Sec. of State Rex Tillerson was asked what the US will do if North Korea detonates a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific, he uttered six words that should scare the American people. The ultimate decision to launch a nuclear war will be up to Donald Trump.

    When asked by David Muir if there will be military action if North Korea drops an H-bomb in the Pacific. Tillerson said, “That will be the President’s decision, David.” Tillerson tried to quiet the fears about Trump’s stability by adding, “There is assembled on a standing basis a National Security Council that meets on each of these issues to advise the president. Ultimately it will be his decision.”

    Those last six words should scare everyone. When push comes to shove, there is no one that can overrule or veto Trump if he gets in a mood and decides to launch World War III because the North Koreans insulted him. During the election, non-partisan national security experts warned that this exact sort of crisis is why Trump is unfit for the presidency.

  4. Angry Trump lashes out at ‘madman’ Kim Jong-un and Facebook ads in early morning tweet rant

    President Donald Trump continued his war of words with Kim Jong-un early Friday morning, calling the North Korean leader a “madman” and stating he “will be tested like never before!”

    He then attacked the Russia investigation, Facebook and Hillary Clinton.

  5. ‘Can Trump read?’ Hilarious ‘investigation’ mocks the president’s struggle with the written word

    I believe Donald Trump can’t read,” said The Root’s Michael Harriot on Friday, citing the president’s mangling of the name of Namibia during a speech to African leaders at the United Nations this week.

    “Maybe ‘can’t’ is too harsh of a word,” Harriot wrote. “I think he struggles with multisyllabic words. This isn’t something I recently came up with when he was embarrassing the entire country in front of world leaders like he was taking an oral exam for a book he read on the way to class. I’ve known about his semi-literacy for years, but I think it’s time I outline my well-researched list of reasons why I believe this to be true.”

  6. ‘No joy in Trumpworld’: White House staffers looking to jump ship — and mass exodus coming

    WWhite House staffers are sending out resumes and preparing to flee the chaos of the Trump administration.

    Morale has plummeted amid the widening Russia investigation and the personnel changes at the top, which has left staffers without allies in an administration characterized by mistrust, reported Politico.

    “There will be an exodus from this administration in January,” said one Republican lobbyist, who has personally heard from five officials looking to leave. “Everyone says, ‘I just need to stay for one year.’ If you leave before a year, it looks like you are acknowledging that you made a mistake.”

  7. McCain deals potential death blow to GOP health bill

    U.S. Senator John McCain said on Friday that he would vote against a new Republican bill to dismantle Obamacare if it is brought onto the Senate floor next week, in a new setback for the proposal.

    “I cannot in good conscience vote for the Graham-Cassidy proposal,” McCain said in a statement about the bill sponsored by Senators Lindsey Graham and Bill Cassidy. McCain said he could not support the bill not knowing how much it would cost and how it would affect insurance coverage, adding that he believed both parties could do better if they work together on legislation.

  8. When one side of a “debate” is arguing to deny a historically persecuted minority equal rights, the ABC is virtually bound to promote misleading, hateful and dangerous points of view. Proven false claims about homosexuality leading to bestiality and incest, deliberate conflations of the postal survey with other issues such as Safe Schools, and fearmongering that darkly hints at homosexuals as secret child molesters are not only presented as on a par with reasoned, relevant arguments about equality and discrimination – they must be presented, if the “No” side is to feel fairly treated.

    Shelton has seized this moment with both hands, running arguments not just against same-sex marriage but against gender non-conformity and same-sex adoption. Since the campaign began, Shelton has been everywhere.

    All things being equal, the national broadcaster might be a little more circumspect about giving someone with such fringe views so much airtime. But things are not equal. Shelton is the public face of one side of a public debate, and therefore he and his views must be given a hearing.

    He is not the only one to take advantage of the ABC’s commitment to balance while crying silence. The “No” case is also exploiting the ABC’s cumbersome complaints process to cow presenters. Internal ABC documents reveal that most complaints received by the broadcaster in recent weeks have come from “No” campaign supporters aggrieved about perceived “bias” from programs and presenters “failing to give a voice to those on the ‘No’ side”. There seems little evidence of this, but it will tie those presenters and programs in weeks if not months of paperwork. Sometimes it is easier just to put the call to air.

    Shelton is the most urbane face the “No” campaign can muster. While he regularly uses his media appearances to insult, degrade and belittle queer people, he does so with what could generously be described as civility. He does not use homophobic epithets, or openly threaten queer presenters or guests. He delivers his abuse in calm, measured tones, and puts his name to the things he says.

    Behind the scenes at the ABC, things are very different. ABC workers have told The Saturday Paper the postal survey has inspired an avalanche of homophobic abuse from the public: radio call-ins, emails, text messages. For every Shelton presenting a mild, genial front to the “No” campaign, there are dozens, if not hundreds, of others emboldened to announce their hatred of queer people in any way they can.

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It seems I’m carrying a prolapsed L4-5 disc. No wonder it bloody hurts!

    Kate McClymont takes us through the crooked Ian MacDonald’s secret diary.
    London deemed Uber unfit to run a taxi service on Friday and stripped it of its licence to operate from the end of next week in a major blow to the US firm and 3.5 million users in one of the world’s wealthiest cities. Now what?
    Paul Bongiorno goes into detail on Abbott’s all out assault on energy.
    Katharine Murphy has a good article on the way the SSM debate is progressing.
    Doing it tough in Point Piper.
    Jacqui Maley closely examines what Abbott has been doing. It’s not pretty.
    And one of the Liberal Party’s rising stars, former SAS commander Andrew Hastie, has privately warned his ally Tony Abbott that he has “overstepped the mark” in recent months by making comments viewed as destabilising to Malcolm Turnbull’s leadership. Google.
    Phil Coorey wonders if Turnbull can survive Abbott the wrecker. Google.
    Michael Koziol reports that Barnaby Joyce’s political nemesis, ex-MP Tony Windsor, has hired the former government lawyer who spectacularly fell out with Attorney-General George Brandis to fight the Deputy Prime Minister in the High Court. Should be an interesting appearance!
    The “buttheadbutter” talks about his altercation with Abbott and confirms it had nothing at all to do with SSM. He’d always wanted to smash a “fascist c**t”.

  10. Section 2 . . .

    Paula Matthewson reckons Abbott created the social climate that led to his assault.
    Laurie Oakes compares Turnbull to Keating.
    Julie Bishop spent tens of thousands of dollars over five years visiting cities around Australia on the same day her beloved West Coast Eagles played there and isn’t keen on answering any questions about it. Google.
    The integrity of the postal SSM survey was further brought into focus when a longtime Mona Vale resident went to throw out the trash into the bin of his apartment block on Friday morning, he lifted the lid to find a bag filled with mail addressed to nearby residents in it.
    Phil Coorey on how the NO campaigners have learnt the black art of victimhood. Google.
    Peter FitzSimons takes a few good potshots in his weekly sporting column.
    John McCain has said that he will not vote for the latest “kill Obamacare legislation”.
    Nice knowing you “Senator” Roberts!
    A brief guide to how Roberts tried to renounce his UK citizenship.
    Michael Pascoe recons Sydney is carrying the nation but it can’t go on forever.

  11. Section 3 . . .

    Peter Hartcher frames a good argument here for SSM and reminds us of a bit of history being conveniently “forgotten” by the NO side.
    Ross Gittins tells us that the soaring price of electricity is testament to the disastrous failure of a major item on the 1990s agenda of micro-economic reform – establishing a national electricity market. In practice, nothing worked out the way the reformers’ economic textbooks told them it would.
    Paul Kelly on Turnbulll’s problem with energy policy. Google.
    Patrick Hatch explains why retailers are so keen to get their loyalty cards into our pockets.
    Adele Ferguson wonders if, after getting rid of Comminsure, the CBA will quit its financial planning arm.
    Paul McGeough looks at the Trump vs Kim bout.
    David Wroe writes that according to a new think tank report Washington’s budget gridlock could affect Australia if the United States’ military leadership starts to “atrophy”, including in the Asia region because the Pentagon cannot get the money it needs.–but-can-they-afford-to-20170922-gyn5pu.html
    Life with a home solar+battery system.
    The left-wing social campaign group Get Up! is planning a ten-fold increase in its electoral reach in a bid to unseat prominent Coalition conservatives at the next federal election. Listen for the screams!

  12. Section 4 . . .

    Richard Dennis contrasts the logic of leading innovative companies and that of Abbott and his right wing cronies. Well worth reading.
    Crispin Hull has some good thoughts on what to do with our banking sector and for what ASIC and the ACCC should be concentrating on,
    Elizabeth Farrelly laments her proposition that greed will overwhelm public benefit with concrete, asphalt and steel.
    Karen Middleton writes about the illicit tobacco trade.
    In another very good contribution on the SSM issue Jack Waterford goes to the changed position and authority of religious institutions.
    The SMH editorial concludes by saying that politicians were warned that the prolonged postal vote could generate rancour and it has. They should take the lead in setting the boundaries for the respectful debate they asked for when they chose this option.
    The Huffington Post looks into the first weeks of the SSM campaigns.
    Alex McKinnon writes that as the debate on same-sex marriage continues, the ‘No’ case is exploiting the ABC’s charter and complaints process to gain prominence for ugly views.
    Peter van Onselen writes that the NO campaign in the same-sex marriage debate has embraced all the techniques commonly used to muddy the waters when an argument is lost. The hope when doing so is to overcome a bad adjudicator with bluff and bluster and steal the result. On this occasion it’s designed to mislead voters. Google.
    David Speers begins his weekly Herald-Sun column with “So much for a respectful national debate. The campaign for and against same-sex marriage turned nasty this week. Those who thought this postal survey would be a polite exchange of differing views must surely be thinking again.” He says the YES campaign cannot ignore the side issue of religious freedoms. Google.
    Julia Baird looks at Paris through the eyes of a child.
    With respect to water buybacks Mike Seccombe says that the Yes Minister rulebook holds that no politician should ever order an inquiry unless its outcome is known in advance. But sometimes, in moments of political desperation, the rulebook has to be thrown out the window.

  13. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir with more on Turnbull’s difficulties.

    Ron Tandberg on the police following up on the Abbott assault.

    And Broelman shows us the interview with the anarchist head butter.

    David Pope drops in on Craigburn Primary school.

    As does Alan Moir.

    Ron Tandberg with a sermon.

    David Rowe with Abbott’s coal mine canary.

    Paul Zanetti nicely farewells Malcolm Roberts.

    Matt Golding with all sorts of people lining up to head butt Abbott.

    David Rowe with Abbott the opportunist.

    And Matt Golding gives Rocket Men The Musical.

    Glen Le Lievre and power down under.

    Mark Knight gives us the Tigers Barmy Army.
    Jon Kudelka has the bells tolling near the High Court.

  14. Morning all


    Thanks for today’s reports.

    And Ouch on your back! Hopefully anti inflammatories, physic, gentle exercise can do the trick. Other unsavoury alternative is surgery!

  15. Abbott is a disaster for the social fabric of Australia, but the only way we will get rid of him is … ?

    By creating the expectation that all Australians were entitled to decide whether members of the LGBTI community can have equal rights, and conflating that question with a bunch of ancillary triggers, Mr Abbott has unleashed a swarm of ugly thoughts that had previously lain dormant in the minds of everyday Australia.

    By insisting that people should be free to articulate those thoughts, he has also given them voice. In the hyper-aggressive environment we live in today – the equivalent of being in a room full of people shouting “fight, fight, fight” – there’s going to be an increased risk that someone will throw a punch.

    Pointing this out doesn’t absolve the alleged attacker, it just truthfully attributes the blame.

    Mr Abbott should be thankful the environment he helped to create has so far only managed to produce a thug that couldn’t land an Irish kiss.

  16. Lizzie

    As I ranted yesterday, Abbott is a malignant character and has been damaging our country for a very long time. His own party should have kicked him to the kerb long ago

  17. lizzie (Block)
    Saturday, September 23rd, 2017 – 7:44 am
    Comment #10

    Behind the scenes at the ABC, things are very different. ABC workers have told The Saturday Paper the postal survey has inspired an avalanche of homophobic abuse from the public: radio call-ins, emails, text messages. For every Shelton presenting a mild, genial front to the “No” campaign, there are dozens, if not hundreds, of others emboldened to announce their hatred of queer people in any way they can.

    Don’t it make yer proud ❓

    The Australian way in action ❓

    Just a note on the “survey”. My favourite daughter is married to a gentleman who is homophobic, thinks education is useless, loves Youtube for the messages about the non moon landings and the flat earth etc. I have asked the FD whether they have received the letters for the survey and she tells me that her husband is looking after that. Being that DH husband believes that voting is pointless the postie, in this case may as well have dumped the letters.

    Never mind, I think a fresh cup of coffee will revive my spirits in time for my Saturday calls to loved ones in Canberra.

    à votre santé young lady.

  18. victoria

    Hastie (a previous fan?) has apparently spoken out against him. Perhaps retribution will eventually come from inside the party. My sense is that as long as Abbott is alive and kicking, he will continue to do harm to the nation. He has no other talents.

  19. My neck of the woods is nice and calm at present. Expecting 29degrees! Although a nasty change with the dreaded gusty wind is on its way later today. Sigh…..

  20. KayJay

    Of course you can’t interfere in FD’s marriage, but it does make me sigh and wonder why we bothered to fight for equal franchise. Husbands (and some fathers) are simply getting two votes.

  21. BK (Block)
    Saturday, September 23rd, 2017 – 7:53 am
    Comment #11
    Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It seems I’m carrying a prolapsed L4-5 disc. No wonder it bloody hurts!

    No wonder indeed ❗

    I offer my sympathy and best wishes and as you would know, adding $10 dollars to those will get you a nice cup of coffee.

    Nevertheless we hope for less pain for you and some non surgical relief.

    ☮ ☕

  22. victoria

    This morning I added Vic Emergency to my top line of bookmarks. This is ridiculous. Around here. we never used to worry about fire until December (never being 20 years ago).

  23. Kay Jay

    As Lizzie also said, you can’t interfere in FD marriage, but you can as a father discuss the issue with her and impart your wisdom

  24. Kay Jay
    I’m having a CT guided steroid injection on Wednesday. If that doesn’t do the trick I suppose surgical removal of the herniated section will be on the cards.

  25. Lizzie

    It is disheartening. I understand your concerns re fires. For me at present, it is the damn winds. A couple of trees have come down in my neighbourhood during the week already
    I am next to small parkland which has gum trees. When the winds pick up, they cop a beating.

  26. victoria @ #27 Saturday, September 23rd, 2017 – 8:47 am

    Kay Jay

    As Lizzie also said, you can’t interfere in FD marriage, but you can as a father discuss the issue with her and impart your wisdom

    I don’t profess to wisdom, however she has a gay brother and a sister who professed ❓ to be a lesbian, I think she should have firm views on the subject.

    FD used, when my wife was alive and at home, tell her (wife) of the lunatic happenings. Trips to marriage guidance have resulted in FD giving up and settling for maintaining the marriage the best way she can. During this time (when Marie was alive) I used to hide in the bedroom and read a book; those days are over FD will, if necessary follow me and tell me almost all. Don’t get me wrong her, I love her to tell me her happenings, read from her IPhone and show me silly photos of puppies and funny animals. What, after all, are fathers for ❓

    FD uses me as sounding board and tells me most of her happenings but stoutly defends her husband.

    I will text FD asking her to bring the survey letters to me when next she visits. That should be interesting.

    Anyway young lady, a warm wonderful Newcastle good cheer wish to you.

  27. BK @ #28 Saturday, September 23rd, 2017 – 8:51 am

    Kay Jay
    I’m having a CT guided steroid injection on Wednesday. If that doesn’t do the trick I suppose surgical removal of the herniated section will be on the cards.

    From my time as a keen observer and listener working at the local hospital as a man of many capabilities (mostly useless), I have heard of good results from this procedure (steroid) and wish you well.

    Perservering face 😣


    A century after elderly military leaders cheerfully sent millions of young men from the trenches to their slaughter in the first world war, the defiant mood of today’s climate deniers is best captured by the stirring words of Blackadder’s General Melchett: “If nothing else works, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through!”

  29. Kay Jay

    Agreed. FD should have clear views. And you as her dad can continue to be a supportive and understanding influence.

    Cheers to you. I am off to see some friends I have neglected during my time of grief. Which I have to say, overwhelms me at the most inoppurtine times

  30. victoria @ #23 Saturday, September 23rd, 2017 – 8:41 am


    Hastie has spoken out, as he and his fellow travellers can see that Abbott is damaging their chances of re election.

    As is his intent. He sees himself both martyr and rescuer, assuming the mantle of greatest LOTO ever, again, and keeping the Cons locked out of Govt for as long as I can dream. Glory glory etc.

  31. BK – Had those injections (one on each side) about a month ago and it has been pain-free heaven since! I hope it works as well for you. Is it at L5S1 level by any chance?

    My Dr has a mate with a yacht named L5S1 (bought with the proceeds of all those surgeries – of which I’ve had 3)

  32. The euphoria in the “no” camp over the Hobart head butting incident was very short lived. Shelton, Abetz, Bernardi and Abbott himself thought it would kill the “yes” campaign stone dead (and Mark Kenny embarrassed himself by writing similarly).

    Meanwhile Bernardi, with skin as thick as a rhino, still fails to acknowledge he has been made to look stupid over the school “wear a dress” fundraiser.

  33. A Democratic Senator Just Dropped A 100 Amendment Mega Bomb On The GOP Plot To Kill Obamacare

    Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) warned Republicans that if they try to bring up Graham-Cassidy for a vote, he has 100 amendments ready to go that will keep the debate going until the reconciliation language expires on September 30.

    Murphy and the Democrats are ready to act, and it looks like they are gearing up to potentially hold the floor until the reconciliation language expires at the end of September. Sen. Murphy was correct. It looks like Graham-Cassidy may be on the ropes, but people can’t let their guard down and stop fighting. Republicans have made their intentions clear. They aren’t going to stop until they have taken health care away from millions and made health insurance and income based luxury where the people who earn the most money will get the most care.

    Democrats are going to sit back and just let McConnell, Trump, and company harm millions of people. It is projected that if Graham-Cassidy becomes law, 41,600 additional Americans will die each year.

    The fight won’t be over until this bill is dead and a bipartisan fix of Obamacare is signed into law.

  34. Trump’s legal defense is being paid for by a handful of shadowy, super-wealthy GOP donors

    President Donald Trump’s legal defense fund is being paid by a handful of wealthy donors including a billionaire investor, a property developing in need of U.S. visas and a Ukrainian-born billionaire with connections to Russian oligarchs, said The Wall Street Journal on Friday.

    These donors, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) pay into an account held by the Republican National Committee (RNC). In the last month, the account paid out $300,000 to attorneys for Mr. Trump’s private legal fees and an additional $200,000 for his son, Donald, Jr.’s lawyers.

    A spokesperson for the RNC told the Journal that the expenses will be detailed in its September report. In August, the RNC legal fund raised $280,000 and $700,000 in July.

  35. McCain blasts fellow Republican Grassley for ‘clearly’ trying to distract from Trump-Russian probe

    A spokeswoman for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) on Friday issued a biting statement aimed at Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), accusing his Republican colleague of “clearly” trying to “distract” from multiple investigations into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election.

    Grassley on Wednesday wrote to FBI Director Christopher Wray, demanding to know “If the FBI did provide a defensive briefing or similar warning to the [Trump] campaign” about Russian efforts to interfere in the election

    “If the FBI did not alert the campaign, then that would raise serious questions about what factors contributed to its decision and why it appears to have been handled differently in a very similar circumstance involving a previous campaign,” Grassley wrote.

  36. BK
    I’ve had two lots of these injections in the same area as well as L5/S1. First lot were brilliant, second not so good. When they do the injections they mix a local anaesthetic in with the steroids for some temporary relief while it will be possibly a week before the roids kick in so don’t get to despondent when/if the pain comes back. Just rest up and try and take it easy and finally all the best with it.

  37. Jake Tapper puts the hammer down on false Trump claims of so-called ‘Russia hoax’

    President Donald Trump has once again called investigations into Russia’s interference in last year’s election “a hoax” — but as CNN’s Jake Tapper points out, members of his own administration have said the exact opposite.

    Although the extent to which Russians “hacked” the American election, Tapper said, remains to be seen. But “the idea that all of this is a hoax,” however, “is just not true.”

    “Don’t take my word for it,” he said, and immediately showed clips of various Trump administration members calling out the Russians in the strongest terms.

  38. Flowers at the altar of the Great Gough for our heath care system.

    MOH had a pacemaker inserted on Thursday after a bit of drama. He went via ambulance through A&E and the cardiology floor with lots of machines that go Bing on to the lab and out calling himself Rocket Man.

    jenauthor @ #41 Saturday, September 23rd, 2017 – 9:22 am

    BK – Had those injections (one on each side) about a month ago and it has been pain-free heaven since! I hope it works as well for you. Is it at L5S1 level by any chance?

    My Dr has a mate with a yacht named L5S1 (bought with the proceeds of all those surgeries – of which I’ve had 3)

    Ha. jen, I remember a New Yorker cartoon with a cigar smoking yachtie on his boat called “All My Years In Medical School”.

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