BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

A solid bump to Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate after particularly dire result for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL.

A big week of polling, with the weekly Essential, fortnightly Newspoll and YouGov and monthly ReachTEL landing all at once, and their combined effect is to shake the BludgerTrack aggregate out of its lethargy with a solid move to Labor. The two contributors to this were Newspoll, whose 53-47 to 54-46 movement this fortnight is almost precisely replicated by BludgerTrack, but also by ReachTEL, whose primary vote numbers were a lot worse for the Coalition than the 52-48 two-party headline suggested. All of which causes Labor to gain four on the seat projection, including one apiece in each of the four largest states. The Coalition has taken a particularly heavy hit on the primary vote, but it’s One Nation rather than Labor that has yielded the advantage. A new set of leadership numbers from Newspoll sends both leaders downwards on the net satisfaction trend, with Bill Shorten gaining fractionally on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,253 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 23 of 26
1 … 22 23 24 … 26

  1. “LawNewz flashed back to the 2005 revelation in a Monday report about Trump’s $17 million insurance claim.”

    “According to an investigation by the Associated Press in 2016, there was “little evidence of such large-scale damage” at Mar-a-Lago.”

    In the present flood crisis, that is extremely WOW worthy.

    ******************************************************

    Trump took $17 million in insurance for damage few remember

    PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) — Donald Trump said he received a $17 million insurance payment in 2005 for hurricane damage to Mar-a-Lago, his private club in Palm Beach, but The Associated Press found little evidence of such large-scale damage.

    https://apnews.com/1fefeef4a4e84fa4af6441f4b6d221f0

  6. ‘I will get Putin on this program and we will get Donald elected’

    • New emails from a former associate of President Donald Trump boasted that a proposed Moscow real-estate deal would “get Donald elected.”
    • The emails involved Trump’s personal lawyer, Michael Cohen.
    • The business associate bragged about his ties to Vladimir Putin and suggested he would get Putin’s team to “buy in” to the deal.

    Read more at https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tower-moscow-felix-sater-michael-cohen-2017-8#uuMHrg94G3cUBj4g.99

  7. Trump frustration with Tillerson rising fast

    There’s a ticking problem with Rex Tillerson, and it’s growing louder by the day, according to officials inside and close to the White House.

    President Trump has been growing increasingly frustrated with his Secretary of State. One time recently, after Trump had returned from a meeting on Afghanistan, a source recalled Trump saying, “Rex just doesn’t get it, he’s totally establishment in his thinking.”

    https://www.axios.com/scoop-trump-frustration-with-tillerson-rising-fast-2478123564.html

  8. don @ #1087 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 5:30 am

    I was very impressed with Leigh Sales’ interview with Malcolm Turnbull. She was professional and it was not a ‘soft’ interview at all. MT was on the back foot the whole time.

    When you are reduced to bagging Labor a lot of the time, instead of trumpeting the achievements of your own government, you are in big trouble as the PM.

    Agree with your review of Sale’s i/v last evening, Don. I would add that Truffles was rattled by Sale’s line & style of questioning, and showed that his nasty, angry nature is just below the surface. He had trouble controlling it on several occasions..

    Not a Sale’s fan, but credit where it’s due..

  10. Come on Trumble, push the button. Go nuclear and refer a dozen Labor peeps to the HC. Plenty of time to add them to the list for October. Do it you spineless slug…

  11. Karen Barlow‏Verified account @KJBar · 9m9 minutes ago

    Ecuadorian citizenship would have required active pursuit. Gallagher’s mother never applied for Ecuadorian citizenship.

  13. North Korea fires missile over Japan in shocking escalation of international tensions: report

    North Korea on Monday fired a missile that passed through Japanese airspace, according to reports.

    The government of Japan warned people in the area to take shelter. The missile fell into the waters off Hokkaido, Japan’s second-largest island.

    South Korea’s military also confirmed the missile launch.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/north-korea-fires-missile-over-japan-report/

  14. And Gallagher’s statement shows the thoroughness of the process – Labor knew where her mother was born and checked out her status.

  15. sprocket_ @ #1101 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 6:57 am

    It maybe Hasta la Vista Baby for Katy Gallagher, who if you can believe The Daily TurdBurgler, is beholden to the rights and priviliges of Ecuador.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DIUd3NRVwAIt1iy?format=jpg&name=large

    If this link is to be believed, Gallagher is home free: http://www.multiplecitizenship.com/wscl/ws_ECUADOR.html

    ECUADOR

    CITIZENSHIP: Ecuadorian citizenship law is based on the Constitution of Ecuador of 1998.

    BY BIRTH: Child born within the territorial limits of the Republic of Ecuador, regardless of the nationality of the mother or father.

    BY DESCENT: Child born abroad, of a native born Ecuadorian father or mother, who later becomes resident of the Republic or expresses the desire to be Ecuadorian.

    It is tolerably clear that “later becomes resident” does not yet apply to Gallagher nor has she expressed “the desire to be Ecuadorian”.

  16. Further to the debate about Cook ‘discovering’ Australia, I am reading SAPIENS by Yuval Noah Harrari, PhD (Oxford) in History and lecturer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. It’s an easy and interesting read, though not without its critics.

    It is his opinion that

    The journey* of the first humans to Australia is one of the most important events in history, at least as important as Columbus’ journey to America or the Apollo 11 expedition to the moon. It was the first time any human had managed to leave the Afro-Asian ecological system – indeed, the first time any large terrestrial mammal had managed to cross from Afro-Asia to Australia. Of even greater importance was what the human pioneers did in this new world. The moment the first hunter-gatherer set foot on an Australian beach was the moment that Homo sapiens climbed to the top rung in the food chain on a particular landmass and thereafter became the deadliest species in the annals of planet Earth.

    This serves, if nothing else, to highlight the bald ignorance of the likes of Dutton and Jones. Pig ignorance would cover it pretty well. There are none so opinionated and steeped in certainty as the ignorant.

    *he dates it at some 45,000 years ago

  17. sohar:

    Why I’ve been careful to take in only what has been published in msm. I’ve followed the tweets of Mensch and Taylor as they’ve been posted here, but I’ve always taken it with a grain of salt until proven by established media outlets.

  18. Oh, the perils of quoting ..let alone BELIEVING anything printed in the Daily ToiletPaper ..Lol!!

    ..looking at you, Sprocket ..**winks**

  19. Morning all

    PhoenixRed

    I have caught up with Schindler and Wilson latest comments. As Schindler said. The lizard is coming!

  21. This is the first “good news story” I have read today.

    In 2014, ownership of five big Cape York cattle stations was handed back to their Traditional Owners, the Olkola. Together with cattle leasehold country they also manage, the Olkola—who call themselves the ‘Freshwater People’—are now the custodians of more than 800,000 hectares (nearly 2 million acres) of Australia’s tropical Outback.
    …
    This land is part of the largest unbroken tropical savanna in the world and includes nine threatened regional ecosystems, from unusual mound springs and wetlands to tall forests, remnant rainforests, and savanna woodlands. Wildlife species include the extremely rare golden-shouldered parrot—an Olkola totem—and cultural sites abound.

    http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/compass-points/2017/08/21/big-outback-plans-for-2-million-acres?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=australia_outback_olkola

  23. He (Turnbull) rejected suggestions the Snowy Hydro project remained in the planning stages, saying drilling had already begun.

    Somewhere in Goldman Sachs lawyer spiv Spinland, the drilling of a test bore is equivalent to the “start of construction”.
    Donald Trump would be proud.

  25. ABC taking the Gallagher story from the Telegraph. This is what poor funding/inexperienced reporting does.

    The Matt Hatter‏
    @MattGlassDarkly

    Replying to @BernardKeane

    But the obvious lies are still not enough to stop @abcmelbourne from making this one of their top stories only 2 minutes sgo.

  26. “the drilling of a test bore is equivalent to the “start of construction”.”

    NBN standards apply. Look at how well that worked out……

  27. Sohar

    I seem to remember that Louise Mensch was some sort of oracle on this site not long ago.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/28/trump-tweets-hoax-louise-mensch-claude-taylor

    *************************************

    Like The Guardian is never, ever wrong …… oh wait …

    ‘Wrong to report’: The Guardian is backtracking on a controversial story about WhatsApp

    Read more at https://www.businessinsider.com/guardian-backtracks-whatsapp-story-2017-6#34VwOfhXqBELZV7M.99

    Someone went to great lengths to send Taylor authentic looking but ultimately false information – he relied it wrongly – he has publically apologised for his error

  28. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 10m10 minutes ago

    Coalition is owned by coal lobby -won’t even put a price on carbon but ABC repeats lie its energy policy is held up by Labor bickering.

  29. Good morning all,

    Re Kathy Gallagher,

    Her Mum was born in 1943 in Equador. The Telegraph is relying on a update of the constitution of Equador in 1998 to make the case Senator Gallagher is a dual citizen.

    Two things they need to realise. As Senator Gallagher’s mum was born in 1943 the 1998 rewrite obviously does not apply especially given it was not retrospective.

    Just a couple of small facts glossed over by the Telegraph but not missed by the labor vetting process.

    Close but no cigar !

    Cheers.

  31. PhoenixRed

    And Taylor publically apologised for it immediately he became aware of it.
    The point is that someone went to great effort to produce false information to to provide him.

  32. lizzie:

    I noticed years ago the ABC simply apes the commercial news outlet lines. I gave up listening to RN Breakfast because all it was was a repeat of the Australian’s headline news stories.

  33. If Katy Gallagher’s tenuous Ecuadorial connection is all the Newscrap dirt units could find then Labor has nothing to worry about as far as the S44 fiasco goes.

  34. Come on Labor, too quick shooting this stupid story in the head.

    Bill showed how to do it. Calmly assert you did the checks and you’re all good. Then wait for the loons to overreach and demand the docs.

  35. Sohar

    No one I know expressed Mensch as being oracle. In any case, the report relates to Taylor being fed false information, not her. Mensch gave the heads up on Sessions, Flynn, Kushner, Nunes, Chaffetz, Cohen, to name a few. At the time, she received a lot of flack. You only hav to look at how things have played out to see that the msm played catch up throughout this whole shit show.
    I have followed the musings of several people, who Some are GOP supporters and or operatives

    Rick Wilson
    John Schindler
    Dena Grayson
    Peter Evans
    Tea Pain
    Countercheckist

  37. Leigh Sales may have been less soft on Malcolm last night but it is far too late for me – i stopped watching her a long time ago.

  38. Steve, they’re desperate. But the morons still haven’t worked out that Labor would love every iffy case up in front of the HC.

    They won’t shoot first, but you can bet that they have a list of names to add to the referrals should Trumble be stupid enough to do it.

    You can see by the stark contrast between how clearly Labor has responded and the bullshit from the right that the ALP have their ducks in a row. It would just take a couple of other MHRs to join Barnyard and a new election is on the cards.

  39. According to Trump, North Korea had backed down after his fury spiel. Yet they now fire this missile over Japan airspace…..right…………..

  40. The now discredited DT article on Katy Gallagher is on the dead tree version front page in attempt to cause maximum damage.

    NCTELE_1_2017_08_29_thumb_big.jpg

    (hope image works)

  41. Centrelink’s rules have been invented by bureaucrats in cities who think everyone is the same.

    A Northern Territory Government MP says people are begging him for emergency help because of a troubled work-for-the-dole scheme.

    Chansey Paech represents Namatjira — a vast electorate covering part of Alice Springs and communities further south.

    Appearing before a Senate inquiry into the Federal Government’s Community Development Program, Mr Paech said CDP was a “national shame”.

    Fines imposed under the program had left people with “no form of income or no stable income”, he told the committee.

    “You will often get calls from people in the community where they are stuck, they’ve been breached and they need money to buy the bare essentials,” he said.

    “People coming into town for a medical appointment are being breached and are unable to get back, so it’s working in to help them {get} transportation home.”

    Mr Paech said he used his annual electorate allowance of $78,000 to help constituents, including giving them Coles and Woolworths gift cards to purchase food.

    …
    “There’s a lot of assumptions made under this program: that people have a mail service, that they have an address, that they can actually read the information that comes to them, they can read English and can speak English, and that they’re able to access Centrelink in some way.”

    This is causing untold problems for aboriginal communities. And the government can only talk of “welfare dependency”.

    Indigenous Affairs Minister Nigel Scullion was unavailable for interview but a spokesman said: “The Government is consulting on a new model for remote Australia.

    “The Government recognises more needs to be done to break the cycle of welfare dependency in remote communities.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-29/northern-territory-mp-says-work-program-leaving-people-hungry/8851014

  42. Claude Taylor Retweeted
    John Schindler
    John Schindler @20committee
    ·
    3h
    The Trump-Sater connection — and who Felix works for — has been known for YEARS. It took the MSM YEARS to care about it. A true scandal.

    63

    843

    2.4K

    Claude Taylor Retweeted
    Counterchekist
    Counterchekist @counterchekist
    ·
    2h
    Replying to @20committee
    Said this earlier— #TeamPatriot was on Sater *months ago* while MSM was busy chasing tRUmp’s outrage du jour + calling us conspiracy nuts.

  43. lizzie
    What really shits me about this pathetic govt is the fact that newstart payments for a single person who is unemployed is only approx $245.00 per week. The way this govt goes on about it, you would think it was thousands of dollars per week. Seriously how on earth can someone survive on that pittance?!!!

  44. The fake-news reach by the Liberals on Katy Gallagher shows how desperate they are. They crave one Labor scalp on citizenship so that they can then run the line:
    “a half dozen of our cabinet were ineligible and we never bothered to check, you did check but let one slip through, so you are just as incompetent as us”.

    Speaking of Liberal pre-selection, while I do not wish ill on the mentally ill, it seems the problems of this MP were already known before he stood. Yet despite the Mary Jo Fisher incident(s), the Liberals pre-selected somebody who needed help, not the pressure of parliament. At this point the LNP vetting procedures make the Trump administration look trustworthy.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-28/victorian-mps-sad-plight-raises-big-questions-for-marginal-seat/8849096?WT.ac=statenews_vic

  46. Dutton said the government was frustrated by its constitutional obligations. “We can’t pass legislation to dispel with that difficulty of the constitution, so we defend these matters, we fight them in the courts and it is incredibly frustrating.”

    Yes, such a pesky nuisance, that Constitution!

    How is the media not subjecting this fascist (and I do not use that term lightly) to the full force of condemnation that the defence of civil society and rule of law requires? Are they truly that venal and stupid?

    (That was a rhetorical question… mostly)

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/29/peter-duttons-comments-to-alan-jones-a-betrayal-of-australian-values-lawyers-say

  47. And since when has anti-terrorism measures been a State level responsibility? And in Adelaide? ISIL must feel a bit insulted. Perhaps more to the point, SA LOTO Steve Marshall clearly has no new policies to offer. So blow that whistle, Steve!
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-29/sa-liberals-announce-shoot-to-kill-anti-terror-policy/8851166

    Does this mean all the Federal spending by Dutton on the Department of Homespun Security has been wasted? Why do we need to duplicate Federal efforts at State level if the Federal measures are working?

  50. How is the media not subjecting this fascist (and I do not use that term lightly) to the full force of condemnation that the defence of civil society and rule of law requires? Are they truly that venal and stupid?

    Yes and yes.

    Meanwhile by virtue of the fact that a non-story appeared on the front page of the least trustworthy newspaper in Australia, t Sabra Lane thought it was ok to raise Katy Gallagher as an issue to both Mitch Fiefield and Penny Wong.

Comments Page 23 of 26
1 … 22 23 24 … 26

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *