BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

A solid bump to Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate after particularly dire result for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL.

A big week of polling, with the weekly Essential, fortnightly Newspoll and YouGov and monthly ReachTEL landing all at once, and their combined effect is to shake the BludgerTrack aggregate out of its lethargy with a solid move to Labor. The two contributors to this were Newspoll, whose 53-47 to 54-46 movement this fortnight is almost precisely replicated by BludgerTrack, but also by ReachTEL, whose primary vote numbers were a lot worse for the Coalition than the 52-48 two-party headline suggested. All of which causes Labor to gain four on the seat projection, including one apiece in each of the four largest states. The Coalition has taken a particularly heavy hit on the primary vote, but it’s One Nation rather than Labor that has yielded the advantage. A new set of leadership numbers from Newspoll sends both leaders downwards on the net satisfaction trend, with Bill Shorten gaining fractionally on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,253 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

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  1. So Turnbull’s theme song should be Common People by Pulp?

    “I wanna live like common people, do like common people do”

  2. ratsak,
    Malcolm Turnbull’s one true talent seems to be the ability to induce real time amnesia in enough people that he is not actually the no talent bum in the top job that we know him to be. Plenty enough people wake up every morning believing that he is going to ‘Make Australia Great’ today in some way. Donald Trump has the same ability. ‘Make America Great Again’. As if one man has that special something that it will take to make it happen. Is it something they have in common as ‘successful’ businessmen? I have often thought that fraud or devising ways to make people willingly part with their hard-earned is just a more sophisticated way of holding up a convenience store. Thus it is inevitable that they want to conquer the Mount Everest of their imagination. Conning the nation to vote for them. In order to pull off the biggest heist of all. Raiding the nation’s Treasury for themselves and their mates.

  3. Steve777
    Caption: ‘Maybe there’s coal down here”.

    “…and then I can have a super duper clean coal hydro combo world beating thingy to beat Abbott around the head with”.

  4. C@t “…Entombed with all his grand plans and unrealised dreams.”

    That rings true. This is surely not how Malcolm saw his life and career unfolding, even 2 years ago.

    Dutton, maybe the next PM, is in his element, attacking the vulnerable and voiceless to the cheers of bigots and bogans, but Malcolm wanted something more than prosecuting his predecessor’s agenda. He wanted to be the Father of the Republic. He wanted to tackle climate change. He probably wanted to bring about a sort of liberal, enlightened, free market, laissez-faire Nirvana.

    But it’s not going to happen, at least not on his watch, probably not ever. He will serve longer than Abbott, possibly longer than Rudd and Gillard, but he will leave politics like the late and unlamented Billy McMahon, without legacy, his time in office an interregnum between hard right admistrations or, more hopefully, like McMahon, a transition to a more enlightened era.

    Sad.

  5. The knob who needs no name. By his infamy, he is known,
    And disappointment is his game.
    With no heart but ambition for acclaim. Climbing the stack
    Substance just tissue over a wire frame.
    Name? k n o b is near enough the same.

    – Apologies for the bad poetry, he does not deserve good stuff.

    zoidlord @ #1072 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 11:03 pm

    The knob who shall not be named…

  6. Kiera @KieraGorden
    ·
    1h
    Correction: Barnaby Joyce came clean about his NZ citizenship because Fairfax were about to go public #QandA

  7. zoidlord @ #1081 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 12:18 am

    Correction: Barnaby Joyce came clean about his NZ citizenship because Fairfax were about to go public #QandA

    And also Turnbull absolutely told the High Court what its verdict would be.

    And I’m very surprised that the Labor guy basically stopped at the hypocrisy involving Canavan and didn’t bring up the absolutely scathing remarks some Coalition members had about the ineligible Greens back when it was all fun and games.

  8. Being publicly certain that the High Court is going to rule that automatic citizenship by immediate decent, when that is such a common type of citizenship, does not count for the purposes of 44i is dialling the hubris to 13.

  9. Tom all the more reason I hope the High Court ignores the “common sense” arguments and sticks to the letter of Constitutional Law. Hubris like this going down in flames. More fun than the New Years fireworks 🙂

  10. I was very impressed with Leigh Sales’ interview with Malcolm Turnbull. She was professional and it was not a ‘soft’ interview at all. MT was on the back foot the whole time.

    When you are reduced to bagging Labor a lot of the time, instead of trumpeting the achievements of your own government, you are in big trouble as the PM.

  11. cud chewer @ #1036 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 10:14 pm

    T-Lurker,

    The one thing I’m most interested in with regards to Snowy 2.0 is whether the peak power can be increased even further. Presumably this means more or larger tunnels. However tunneling has now come of age and it has efficiencies of scale. I just wonder if the people who are doing the study are contemplating this.

    Cud,

    I think that there will be physical/hydraulic constraints at either end that could limit the available water for recirculating generation such as:
    1. Would Snowy Hydro want to empty each reservoir sufficient low enough to construct the headrace inlet structure (Tantangara) and the tailrace outlet structure (Talbingo) and the associated major bulk earthworks (both reservoirs) to increase the storage volume available for additional pumped hydro (2 GW to say 5 GW or more) so that this capacity in a dry period when the combined system water levels are low.
    2. There is a balance between installed generating capacity and the inflow hydrology that needs to be established. There is no sense investing on additional pumping and generating capacity that cannot be used for large portions of time.
    3. There is a lot of variability in inflow to the whole system, text from their web site states:
    “In the last 110 years of data, inflows have ranged from 683 gigalitres (GL) seen in 2006/07 during the worst drought on record, to 5761GL almost a century ago in 1917. The long term average is just below 2800GL.”

    In short, I suspect that the questions (and the answers then) on the optimal capacity of this pumped hydro loop were identified by Snowy Hydro’s predecessor decades ago when this scheme was first conceived. There could be other opportunities (Tantangara to Eucumbene) which already has a one way tunnel as part of the original scheme.

  12. Cud,

    Sorry, I should type, proof read twice and then post.
    Point 1 should say ….so that this capacity is available in a dry period…
    The other minor grammatical errors will remain uncorrected.
    LOL at self

  13. Unstable Trump Described As Emotionally Dependent On Jared Kushner and Ivanka

    Trump’s son in law and daughter have been massive failures in Washington, but insiders describe the President as emotionally dependent on his favorite daughter and son in law to make him feel better.

    All presidents have their down times and dark moments, but Trump seems to be viewing the presidency as a curse that is ruining his life. Donald Trump is barely hanging on, and the President’s inability to function is bad news for every American who cares about their country.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/28/unstable-trump-emotionally-dependent-jared-kushner-ivanka.html

  14. Trump’s election reveals a deeply troubling development in American culture

    Among the large percentage of Americans who are aghast at the election of Donald Trump as president, one sometimes hears, “How could this have happened? How could we Americans have elected such a clueless fool?” A man who bragged that because he was a “star” he could grab parts of women’s bodies whenever he wished. A man who made so many outlandish statements, many of them reflecting his colossal narcissism, that one hardly knows where to begin.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/trumps-election-reveals-a-deeply-troubling-development-in-american-culture/

  15. ‘All Putin’s team will buy in on this’: Trump partner promised Russian help so ‘our boy can become president’

    One of President Donald Trump’s business partners, Felix Sater, reportedly agreed in 2015 to manage a relationship with Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, that would guarantee the U.S. presidency for Trump.

    The New York Times reported on Monday that it had obtained emails in which Sater “boasts” the claims to Trump attorney Michael Cohen.

    “Our boy can become president of the USA and we can engineer it,” Sater wrote in one email, according to the Times. “I will get all of Putin’s team to buy in on this, I will manage this process

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/all-putins-team-will-buy-in-on-this-trump-partner-promised-russian-help-so-our-boy-can-become-president/

  16. FLASHBACK: Trump took $17 million payout for hurricane damage that reportedly only cost $3,000

    s Hurricane Harvey bears down on Texas, some are recalling that Donald Trump claimed that a hurricane damaged his private Mar-a-Lago club in 2005, but investigators found little evidence to back up the assertions.

    LawNewz flashed back to the 2005 revelation in a Monday report about Trump’s $17 million insurance claim.

    According to an investigation by the Associated Press in 2016, there was “little evidence of such large-scale damage” at Mar-a-Lago.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/flashback-trump-took-17-million-payout-for-hurricane-damage-that-reportedly-only-cost-3000/

  17. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Mark Kenny lambasts Turnbull for reeling out the distractions. Oh dear!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/any-deport-in-a-storm-malcolm-turnbulls-search-for-a-distraction-20170828-gy5pdw.html
    Pater Hartcher says “Yes, Houston, you do have a problem, and – as insensitive as it seems to bring it up just now – some of it is your own making.” I wonder what Malcolm Roberts would think about this article.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/houston-you-have-a-problem-and-some-of-it-of-your-own-making-20170827-gy5cmy.html
    Electricity generators have rebuked the Turnbull government for delaying the introduction of a clean energy target, arguing a target will trigger new investment and bring down power bills.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/power-companies-rebuke-turnbull-government-over-clean-energy-target-20170828-gy5i4m.html
    Australia produced enough renewable energy to power 70 per cent of households last financial year, new data shows, but advocates warn the booming industry will flounder unless the Turnbull government commits to a clean energy target.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/energy-smart/renewable-energy-booming-but-could-soon-turn-to-bust-analysts-warn-20170825-gy4egf.html
    Meanwhile Turnbull defended the government’s energy policy in a testy interview with Leigh Sales.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/08/28/turnbull-730-interview-energy/
    Adele Ferguson writes that APRA’s inquiry into the CBA may be too little too late. It may not be enough to stave off a Royal Commission she says and it smacks of desperation from the Turnbull government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/is-apras-commonwealth-bank-inquiry-enough-to-stave-off-a-royal-commission-20170828-gy5iky.html
    Phil Coorey says it’s like a royal commission into one bank. Google.
    news/politics/apras-cba-probe-is-a-bit-like-a-royal-commission-into-one-bank-20170827-gy5cfm
    A business associate of President Donald Trump promised in 2015 to engineer a real estate deal with the aid of the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, that he said would help Mr Trump win the presidency. The hole gets deeper.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/trump-associate-boasted-moscow-deal-will-get-donald-elected-20170828-gy61ty.html
    A coalition of refugee advocates, unions and charities have joined forces to resist the Turnbull government’s dramatic crackdown on asylum seekers, vowing they won’t be coerced back to Manus Island and Nauru.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/charities-advocates-unions-join-forces-to-fight-asylum-seeker-crackdown-20170828-gy5ln2.html

  18. Section 2 . . .

    Dutton must have worked so hard to be this vindictive and nasty!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/lawyers-representing-asylum-seekers-are-unaustralian-peter-dutton-20170827-gy5ci7.html
    On behalf of the “un-Australian” lawyers Catherine Williams has penned an open letter to Potatohead.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/an-open-letter-to–peter-dutton-on-behalf-of-all-those-unaustralian-lawyers-20170828-gy5tk0.html
    Jenna Price on the real reason Dutton wants to evict babies.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/lets-swap-peter-dutton-and-company-for-50-australian-babies-20170828-gy5o4n.html
    This research associate in refugee law says that Australia’s standing in the world is being bankrupted by its “deportation and destitution” policy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australia-is-bankrupting-its-standing-with-deportation-by-destitution-policy-20170828-gy5gro.html
    Shorten’s plan to neutralise the Captain Cook statue debate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/an-additional-plaque-bill-shortens-plan-to-neutralise-captain-cook-debate-20170828-gy5ioc.html
    This SMH editorial goes to the emergence of Liberal leaders from outside the ranks of government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/liberals-find-leaders-outside-the-leadership-20170828-gy5su4.html
    Nick Greiner denounces the “religious freedom” argument.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/28/claiming-marriage-equality-threatens-religious-freedom-is-misleading-says-liberal-president
    Comedy capers from the Coalition!
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/coalition-and-co-comedy-capers,10650
    Trump’s response to the devastating Category 4 hurricane currently battering Texas has been described as “weird”, “boastful” and even “cheering”.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/08/28/trump-slammed-for-weird-and-boastful-tweets-during-hurricane-harvey_a_23187843/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
    The homophobic propaganda strung up in capital cities around the country in recent days is an indication of the sort of respectful discussion we can expect over the next two months, which is set to become ever more visceral as tensions mount.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/australias-samesex-marriage-debate-echoes-dark-days-of-the-irish-referendum-20170823-gy2hrg.html

  19. Section 3 . . .

    Elizabeth Knight on how Murdoch scored an own goal over the Ten Network – with idiot Hanson’s assistance. One to savour!
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/murdoch-scores-owngoal-on-ten-network-20170828-gy5l5e.html
    Tony Abbott has taken a swipe at world leaders Angela Merkel and Donald Trump in a wide-ranging essay in which he also states the threat of Islamist extremism is greater than climate change. It’s up to you if you want to read it.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/chaotic-donald-trump-risks-presidency-with-self-indulgence-says-tony-abbott-20170828-gy619n.html
    Be careful in investing in clothing retailers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/the-sad-sorry-collapse-of-surfstitch-could-be-worse-than-it-looks-20170825-gy43vz.html
    Civil rights groups filed two lawsuits on Monday challenging US President Donald Trump’s controversial ban on transgender people serving in the country’s military. This will fire up the President!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/two-lawsuits-challenge-donald-trumps-transgender-military-service-ban-20170828-gy61qi.html
    A Chinese government crackdown on offshore property deals will be widely felt in countries including Australia, says Trade Minister Stephen Ciobo.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/overseas-property-crackdown-from-china-to-be-widely-felt-20170828-gy5mfv.html
    Why there’s no quick fix to housing affordability. Google.
    /news/economy/why-theres-no-quick-fix-to-housing-affordability-says-ceda-20170828-gy5qxu
    A private Sydney school will pay back $4.3 million in taxpayer funds to the NSW government after it was found to have illicitly operated for profit for seven years. Another Islamic school being naughty.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/private-school-rissalah-college-to-pay-back-43-million-to-government-20170825-gy4gfq.html
    Adani has issued a statement confirming the start of works for the $16.5 billion project in Queensland’s Galilee basin, with the first coal to be produced by the facility in March 2020.
    http://www.smh.com.au/queensland/work-to-start-on-adani-mine-in-october-20170828-p4yvls.html
    The federal government should mandate rules allowing public servants to work from anywhere at any time, a parliamentary committee considering regional decentralisation moves has been told.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/anywhere-any-time-work-proposal-for-public-service-20170828-gy5hci.html

  20. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox goes straight for Dutton’s throat!

    As does John Shakespeare.

    And Boelman!

    Ron Tandberg and pisspot Abbott.

    More from Tandberg, this time on jobs for turfed refugees.

    Paul Zanetti on statue management.

    US evangelicals and gun control.

    Great stuff from David Pope.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Mark Knight and Roberta Williams’ tilt at Bill Shorten’s seat.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/be526cd3de11e058ee8be53dc1520689?width=1024
    Andrew Dyson and the politics of envy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    Pat Clement assembles APRA’s CBA inquiry team.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/40d3dcaa1861d59c557396e0a125cc35
    David Rowe and the CBS takeover of Ten.
    http://www.afr.com/photogallery/opinion/david-rowes-cartoons-20170801-gxn7rd#

  21. White House photos show Trump sitting alone at Camp David while Pence runs hurricane Situation Room

    White House photos released over the weekend show President Donald Trump sitting quietly alone at Camp David as Vice President Mike Pence and other cabinet members gathered in the Situation Room to deal with the devastation of Hurricane Harvey.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/white-house-photos-show-trump-sitting-alone-at-camp-david-while-pence-runs-hurricane-situation-room/

  22. LawNewz flashed back to the 2005 revelation in a Monday report about Trump’s $17 million insurance claim.

    According to an investigation by the Associated Press in 2016, there was “little evidence of such large-scale damage” at Mar-a-Lago.

    In the present flood crisis, that is extremely WOW worthy.

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