BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

A solid bump to Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate after particularly dire result for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL.

A big week of polling, with the weekly Essential, fortnightly Newspoll and YouGov and monthly ReachTEL landing all at once, and their combined effect is to shake the BludgerTrack aggregate out of its lethargy with a solid move to Labor. The two contributors to this were Newspoll, whose 53-47 to 54-46 movement this fortnight is almost precisely replicated by BludgerTrack, but also by ReachTEL, whose primary vote numbers were a lot worse for the Coalition than the 52-48 two-party headline suggested. All of which causes Labor to gain four on the seat projection, including one apiece in each of the four largest states. The Coalition has taken a particularly heavy hit on the primary vote, but it’s One Nation rather than Labor that has yielded the advantage. A new set of leadership numbers from Newspoll sends both leaders downwards on the net satisfaction trend, with Bill Shorten gaining fractionally on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,253 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

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  2. Everytime I hear lucky country mentioned by a pollie I want to slap them. The correct quote is “Australia is a lucky country run by second rate people”. The quote is calling them idiots.

  3. Turnbull was feisty and seemed to be licking his lips a lot which was odd.
    Sales was fine – interrupted him a few times which he objected to but the interruptions were warranted as he continually did not answer the question, turning most replies into blaming Shorten and labor.
    It had a touch of Rudd’s “out there in the real world, not ABC land” to it.
    Turnbull is so hopelessly compromised on everything that it was always going to be a bit of a train-wreck.

  4. Henry @ #1003 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 9:15 pm

    Turnbull was feisty and seemed to be licking lips a lot which was odd.
    Sales was fine – interrupted him a few times which he objected to but the interruptions were warranted as he continually did not answer the question, turning most replies into blaming Shorten and labor.
    It had a touch of Rudd’s “out there in the real world, not ABC land” to it.
    Turnbull is so hopelessly compromised on everything that it was always going to be a bit of a train-wreck.

    Thank you Henry.

  8. zoidlord @ #982 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 8:11 pm

    @P1

    My posts have revelence while yours don’t.

    Because your defence of hydro is based on a scenario that doesn’t exist yet, and Turnbull said this is all about storage and tell Shorten to shut up like it’s all over red rover type deal.

    Read Cud Chewer’s email at 8:06pm. This has less to do with politics than you suppose. A worthwhile project is a worthwhile project, no matter who originates it.

  9. I think Malcolm Turnbull is being run into the ground in an attempt to generate some positive momentum for his government. He seems to be trying every which way but loose (and today’s facebook video on the couch seemed a bit louche!) to generate a spark of interest or a nod of approval from the electorate. Plus the Blame! Blame! Blame! Bill Shorten! stuff.

    However, people can see through all that stuff for the transparently opportunistic waste of precious time that it is. This is a government that is not governing. It is drowning, not waving.

  11. cud chewer @ #981 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 8:06 pm

    Been reading this site on mobile today but its impossible to write a properly post whilst mobile.

    Specifically on the issue of Snowy 2.0
    I’m torn. I share the cynicism being levelled at this project. However I’m also an engineer and its a project that’s been around for a long time. Lets get one thing clear first. When it comes to energy storage systems there are actually two quite different things we are paying for.

    One of those is stored energy. Or capacity.
    The other is power.
    For me one way to characterise a stored energy system is to think in terms of how many hours it can deliver its stored energy for at peak power

    A lot of the debate here seems to confuse the two.
    Apparently Snowy 2.0 would increase peak power by 2GW.
    However the capacity (energy stored) of Snowy 2.0 is very large. It amounts to weeks of energy supply at peak power.

    Bottom line here is we should be answering the question of what else we can build. But it does faintly annoy me that people are writing off Snowy 2.0 entirely as if its just a political football. Well, its being used like one. But itd be really nice to see the actual engineering. I somehow suspect that given the economics of modern tunnel (TBMs etc) it might be possible to up the power level to more like 5GW for only an incremental cost. That might make it better value.

    Cud,

    Two issues:
    1. Snowy 2 will add to the 1.5GW that Tumut 3 can deliver for a total of 3.5 GW instantaneous or 42 GWh of power per day. 3.5GW is 1/8 of the peak power load at 7:00 pm last night (27 GW) for the east coast market from just two power stations – personally I wouldn’t advocate for/promote any more from a geographically centric source.
    CS Energy (a Qld Government GOB) should look to increase the size of the existing Wivenhoe Pumped Storage if possible (it is currently 500 MW for 10 hours per day or 5 GWh with 14 hours per day of pumping to refill the headwater reservoir from Lake Wivenhoe). They should also run it as hard as possible each day, every day of the week (come on Anna P, you know it makes sense).
    There are a multitude of sites in Australia that could be used to build a lower tailwater reservoir (dam) and an upper headwater reservoir (dam) – a recent ANU study identified the potential number.
    However, it makes better economic and environmental sense to me to try and use the reservoirs that exist (either as the potential upper or the potential lower reservoir) to reduce the impact of constructing many new dams in pairs.
    The private sector proponents for the Kidston Pumped Hydro Scheme (with a proposed capacity of 250 MW for 6 hours) need to encouraged to proceed. Any other similar private sector schemes need encouragement.

    2. (Leaving aside pumping and generating efficiencies) I am not sure that more than 6 hours worth of water need be pumped from Talbingo Reservoir (the tailwater) up to Tantangara Reservoir (the headwater) in a 6 hour window to then be discharged back down through the turbines during the next 6 hours to generate 12 GWh or 2 GW for 6 hours for the whole pumping followed by generating process to then be repeated in the next 12 hour window and so on ad infinitum.
    Bringing efficiency into the equation, it probably need a cycle of 7 hours pumping and 5 hours generating in every 12 hour cycle unless more pumps than turbines were installed.

  16. Player One @ #1008 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 9:35 pm

    zoidlord @ #982 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 8:11 pm

    @P1

    My posts have revelence while yours don’t.

    Because your defence of hydro is based on a scenario that doesn’t exist yet, and Turnbull said this is all about storage and tell Shorten to shut up like it’s all over red rover type deal.

    Read Cud Chewer’s email at 8:06pm. This has less to do with politics than you suppose. A worthwhile project is a worthwhile project, no matter who originates it.

    Occasionally P1 does say something sensible.

  19. C@tmomma
    Go Joe!

    We have our own con artists and tricksters too…at work in ON and the LNP and the various RW scufflers. The most egregious of them in my opinion is Tony Abbott. But he’s far from being alone.

  20. Possum Comitatus‏ @Pollytics 5h5 hours ago
    The US is such a failed state at anything remotely related to disaster management. Yet we still have drongos here that see it as a blueprint

    How true. If anything the Trump era has shown this to be the case.

  21. I know this study will probably be contradicted by the next study but I’m happy to accept their findings as justification for my caffeine intake:

    Up to four cups of coffee a day is not harmful to health, in fact it may even be beneficial, new research suggests.

    In another boon for coffee lovers, an observational study of 20,000 Spanish residents has found an association between regular coffee consumption and a lower risk of premature death.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/four-cups-of-coffee-a-day-is-okay-study/news-story/2811ae2eadf316da977b50d626fa2f7d

  22. briefly,
    I just have this impression of Tony Abbott spinning his wheels and going nowhere as he tries to gain the momentum he needs to propel himself back into The Lodge (not that he ever spent a night there). He must be crazy to think that the nation has collective amnesia and has simply forgotten that he was such an abomination as Prime Minister, that they would be prepared to give him a go again.

    Of course, his pitch now is to the Liberal Party and to the Conservatives in the party that are still sticking with Turnbull. However, I don’t think Turnbull’s Conservative Praetorian Guard have the memories of goldfish either.

    Tony Abbott is a legend in his own budgie smugglers. Iow, he’s a dick. We all know that much. Nor have we forgotten.

  23. citizen @ #1021 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 10:00 pm

    I know this study will probably be contradicted by the next study but I’m happy to accept their findings as justification for my caffeine intake: …

    I’m waiting for the study that says a bottle of single malt whiskey a day is beneficial. Once I see it, I’m turning off the internet.

  30. C@tmomma
    briefly,
    I just have this impression of Tony Abbott spinning his wheels and going nowhere as he tries to gain the momentum he needs to propel himself back into The Lodge (not that he ever spent a night there). He must be crazy to think that the nation has collective amnesia and has simply forgotten that he was such an abomination as Prime Minister, that they would be prepared to give him a go again.

    He’s obviously consumed by ambition – an appetite that is very much greater than his talent.. He was an abysmal failure during his period in office – a failure that was entirely of his own making. I think there was hardly a day when he didn’t say or do something really very stupid. I’m sure you’re right. Voters will not have forgotten even if he has.

  32. P1

    I didn’t say that Snowy 2.0 is a worthwhile project. I said there’s a possibility it could be. But that to know for sure means also studying alternatives.

  33. Unfortunately I don’t know how to re-produce that picture of Turnbull in his hard hat and orange vest, reaching up as if to inspect some imaginary object on the wall of a Snowy tunnel, with his other hand obscured behind his back. But I think the caption should be:

    Perhaps if I reach up like this no-one will notice that I am scratching my arse.

  34. In a lengthy – and at times heated – interview with the ABC’s Leigh Sales on 7.30 on Monday night, Mr Turnbull also said his government had no plans to build a coal-fired power station

    Yikes clearly Turnbull distinguishes ‘build’ from ‘fund’ when it comes to Adani yet I’d argue it’s one and the same.

  35. The Power of Positive Thinking will not win Malcolm Turnbull the next election. The power of some positive policies might.

  36. T-Lurker,

    The one thing I’m most interested in with regards to Snowy 2.0 is whether the peak power can be increased even further. Presumably this means more or larger tunnels. However tunneling has now come of age and it has efficiencies of scale. I just wonder if the people who are doing the study are contemplating this.

  37. Darn @ #1035 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 10:12 pm

    Unfortunately I don’t know how to re-produce that picture of Turnbull in his hard hat and orange vest, reaching up as if to inspect some imaginary object on the wall of a Snowy tunnel, with his other hand obscured behind his back. But I think the caption should be:

    Perhaps if I reach up like this no-one will notice that I am scratching my arse.

    Darn,
    Just right click on the picture, left click on Copy Image Address, then right click in the Comment Box and left click on Paste. You will find it magically appears after you post your comment because the image address, ending in .jpg is the code for the picture. : )

  39. confessions @ #1034 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 10:12 pm

    In a lengthy – and at times heated – interview with the ABC’s Leigh Sales on 7.30 on Monday night, Mr Turnbull also said his government had no plans to build a coal-fired power station

    Yikes clearly Turnbull distinguishes ‘build’ from ‘fund’ when it comes to Adani yet I’d argue it’s one and the same.

    Adani have no intention of building a coal fired power station in Australia.
    They want to open a coal mine.

  41. Did a quick google regarding Sweden and same-sex marriage. The only sites carrying this supposed demand that religious celebrants preside over ssm is in the crazy press ie Brietbart.

  42. Gawd only a couple of weeks ago I was happy doing selfies with Confessions in Albany. How has it come to this lonely existence in such a short space of time?

  44. briefly @ #1030 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 10:10 pm

    C@tmomma
    briefly,
    I just have this impression of Tony Abbott spinning his wheels and going nowhere as he tries to gain the momentum he needs to propel himself back into The Lodge (not that he ever spent a night there). He must be crazy to think that the nation has collective amnesia and has simply forgotten that he was such an abomination as Prime Minister, that they would be prepared to give him a go again.

    He’s obviously consumed by ambition – an appetite that is very much greater than his talent.. He was an abysmal failure during his period in office – a failure that was entirely of his own making. I think there was hardly a day when he didn’t say or do something really very stupid. I’m sure you’re right. Voters will not have forgotten even if he has.

    Absolutely every word applies equally to Trumble.

    Abbott had at least a tiny bit of belief in what he was doing beyond just the misplaced ambition for a job he had no talent for nor business aspiring to. That makes Trumble an even lower form of life than Abbott to me. Consumed by an ambition way beyond his talent and an abysmal failure entirely due to his incompetence for a role he has coveted since he was young.

    He goes barely a day without saying or doing something incredibly stupid. It’s depressing that it’s taking so long for some to still work out what an insignificant person he really is, but once the lesson sinks in it’s not forgot.

  49. Turnbull staring at the rock wall: “I’m looking up the timetable for the next train so I can ride like a common person on this underground railway…oops…”

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