BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

A solid bump to Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate after particularly dire result for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL.

A big week of polling, with the weekly Essential, fortnightly Newspoll and YouGov and monthly ReachTEL landing all at once, and their combined effect is to shake the BludgerTrack aggregate out of its lethargy with a solid move to Labor. The two contributors to this were Newspoll, whose 53-47 to 54-46 movement this fortnight is almost precisely replicated by BludgerTrack, but also by ReachTEL, whose primary vote numbers were a lot worse for the Coalition than the 52-48 two-party headline suggested. All of which causes Labor to gain four on the seat projection, including one apiece in each of the four largest states. The Coalition has taken a particularly heavy hit on the primary vote, but it’s One Nation rather than Labor that has yielded the advantage. A new set of leadership numbers from Newspoll sends both leaders downwards on the net satisfaction trend, with Bill Shorten gaining fractionally on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,253 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

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  1. I see Turnbull is on 730 tonight and qanda is tweeting he might make it to their program as well. The scheduled qanda matchup was Brandis vs Burke so perhaps George is getting the evening off.

  2. Boris @ #877 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 4:44 pm

    It would be a dream come true to remove Goodenough from Moore.

    Leave him there, he stands out as a magnet for voters in other electorates on why not to vote LNP.

    Exactly. We have to accept some Libs in Parliament. Might as well have as many of them as useless logs like Goodenough (another prime example of them being the Antonym party).

  3. lizzie @ #1205 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 5:31 pm

    :large

    Here’s a picture that gives some perspective on how bad the floodwaters are in Houston.

    And it’s still raining; likely to continue until around Wednesday (U.S. time).

    Meanwhile Trump says “wow” before moving on to “border wall” and NAFTA (“worst trade deal ever made”, you know).

  4. @P1

    No wonder Turnbull goes after people like you, and then tells Shorten to shut up on energy crises.

    Too much ego and trust.

  6. I imagine it can be a bit misleading to look at power provided by source as I think this is what results after various generators have bid into the market and distributors have picked to use based on the bid prices.

    It doesn’t directly show what amount of generation was potentially available from each source at those times, although that would be a factor in the result.

    Interested if someone more familiar with the system than I am can confirm or contradict this understanding. Those with an agenda please don’t bother.

  7. According to Pascoe on The Drum, allowing refugees in Australia to work is one of the bits of Libs’ you beaut new AS policy, which they have been ‘working on for 12 months’ and will be dribbled out slowly.

  10. He argues

    *Australia needs to dramatically cut its immigration program (to take pressure off house prices),

    *abolish the Human Rights Commission (because it has become “a kind of politically-correct thought police”),

    *consider buying a nuclear-powered submarine (which would “strike fear into the hearts of any potential enemy”), and

    *build a new coal-fired power station (to “keep the lights on”).

    Who is he?

    a) a early adolescent male trying to impress a teacher
    b) a geriatric in a nursing home
    c) the examiner setting questions for young liberals entry quiz
    d) a boxer suffering brain damage
    e) none of the above

    Answer here

  12. If only we could afford to live the way we do, lamented Europe’s entitled nobility as its privilege crumbled in the 1930s.

    Eighty odd years later, the Turnbull government might feel the same way. Trapped between the world as it should be, and the world that is.

    Its response is uncannily similar: spend more than it earns, and then wonder why it is unpopular.

    ….
    On borders, Turnbull and his hardline Immigration Minister, Peter Dutton, have finally found the point of official human callousness beyond which an acquiescent Labor opposition will not tread. At last!

    Out of the blue, asylum seekers granted access to Australia for medical treatment are to be summarily cut off from their already parsimonious government assistance. Dutton believes most people will applaud his resolve and further, that lawyers representing their rights are being “un-Australian”.

    Pure theatre. Beyond its actual cruelty, this shift has more to do with departing votes than any arriving boats.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/any-deport-in-a-storm-malcolm-turnbulls-search-for-a-distraction-20170828-gy5pdw.html

  14. zoidlord @ #894 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 3:30 pm

    @p1

    LOL laughable numbers 100 times?

    Sounds very dodgy, very LNP type dodgy.

    P1 is relying on a Q&A written by a copywriter. Says it all really.

    P1 has also quoted retail battery pricing, ignoring that the government would get an enormous discount for ordering a couple of billion dollars of batteries.

  15. Tony Abbott should have 80% of his parliamentary/government payments quarantined because he has a drug problem.

    (Alcohol is the biggest drug problem that Australia faces. Just because it’s legal doesn’t make it any less of a problem drug).

  16. Zoidlord@4:37PM

    .@PeterDutton_MP: people smugglers will use Labor’s position as a sign Australia is ‘open for business.’ MORE:

    When Governments engage in bastardry they normally do it quietly, announcing it if they have to on Friday night, ideally while there’s other big news about. This one got the full two-page spread in the Murdoch crapsheets on Monday morning. Dutton is using a slide trombone, not a dog whistle.

    I think that tweet gives the game away. Dutton wants asylum seekers back in the news. The welfare of the 100 or so unfortunates is of no concern to him or the tranche of voters he is playing to. They are just pawns to help distract the punters from weeks of bad news for the Government, which, we need to remember is, apart from being clownishly stupid and incompetent, positively malevolent.

  18. grimace @ #914 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 6:25 pm

    P1 is relying on a Q&A written by a copywriter. Says it all really.

    P1 has also quoted retail battery pricing, ignoring that the government would get an enormous discount for ordering a couple of billion dollars of batteries.

    P1 is relying on fairly easily discovered numbers. You are relying on hot air and wishful thinking.

  19. .@PeterDutton_MP: people smugglers will use Labor’s position as a sign Australia is ‘open for business.’ _____________
    It’s about time some Labor heavy called out Dutton as vile human being.

  20. Two billion dollar on batteries that last 10 years or two billion on scheme that lasts a 100. As I said this could be labors NBN but I don’t think shorten is that stupid.

  24. I have referred to members of the government as scumbags. This is been grossly unfair to all concerned.

    I apologise unreservedly to scumbags everywhere for the slur on their good name.

  27. C@tmomma @ #915 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 6:25 pm

    Tony Abbott should have 80% of his parliamentary/government payments quarantined because he has a drug problem.

    (Alcohol is the biggest drug problem that Australia faces. Just because it’s legal doesn’t make it any less of a problem drug).

    history of overdoses
    damages work place property
    abuse of salary entitlements
    keeps bad company
    completely lacking insight into his drug problem

  34. frednk @ #897 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 3:39 pm


    Voice Endeavour

    …

    Also, lol “The researchers considered a battery to be beyond its useful lifespan when it had lost 20 percent of its full power.”

    The way I read it life expectancy falls of at 85deg; as for the 20% reduction in capacity; I don’t think it is any laughing matter.

    I know jack shit about lithium but I do know what you need to do to get 10 years out of lead acid.
    1)Keep them charged.
    2)Keep them cool.

    Nobody seems to be saying they are going to outlast lead acid. They are claiming more cycles; but that is about it.

    You’ve forgotten only going to 50% depth of discharge.

    There are about 15 chemistry’s of lithium batteries and cycle life, depth of discharge, performance at high temperatures etc depends on the chemistry.

  35. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-28/federal-governments-$10bn-bill-rivals-newstart-cost/8849562

    The Federal Government is now spending as much on information technology projects in the public service as it is on its major social welfare program, the Newstart Allowance.

    While welfare programs are being consolidated and plans to drug test recipients are announced, the cost of Government IT has jumped to nearly $10 billion.

    The spiralling costs — up from $5.9 billion in 2012-13 — have not always resulted in better outcomes for the public with the tax office and the Australian Bureau of Statistics facing embarrassing IT bungles.

    That has prompted a Labor-led Senate inquiry into mismanagement and waste, data leaks, privacy breaches and a series of website outages.

    A new report by the Digital Transformation Agency — once seen as Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s pet project — has released a scathing review of the bureaucrats managing the projects.

    It found public servants were too afraid to make major changes to IT procurement and were not talking with other departments to avoid duplication.

    “A fear of external scrutiny of decisions — such as through Senate estimates and audits — leads to a low-risk appetite and a culture where it is ‘not OK to fail’,” the report said.

    “This means that old and familiar ICT solutions are preferred to newer and more innovative, but perceivably riskier, solutions.”

    The Government committed to spend $9 billion on IT in 2015-16 — including software and customer service websites — and another $1.4 billion on staff.

    It expects to spend $9.6 billion on the Newstart Allowance this financial year.

  38. frednk

    Two billion dollar on batteries that last 10 years or two billion on scheme that lasts a 100

    Whether it is invested in batteries or not is not the core issue. The point is that storage and distribution needs to be distributed not highly centralised. There are plenty of other pumped hydro sites that don’t require massive expenditure on tunneling and are located closer to the source of generation or utilisation. A distributed grid is also much more resistant to major outages.
    e.g. If a major user, such as a refinery, smelter, town or whatever, wants to set up it’s own solar or wind farm, it is much more efficient to have the storage located nearby integrated with the local grid.
    Transmission costs are a major component of power costs.

  39. Mr Dutton said that would be “glee to the ears of people smugglers, who would be rubbing their hands together”. Allowing the asylum seekers to remain in Australia would enable people smugglers to say “you can go to Australia for medical assistance and then you’ll stay there”, he said.

    Responding to the good-to-see fightback, Dutton gives the clear impression that he not only doesn’t have any empathy for people needing medical assistance, well we knew that, cold hearted bastard, but that he doesn’t believe they even needed any; I read he thinks they were faking it.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/charities-advocates-unions-join-forces-to-fight-asylum-seeker-crackdown-20170828-gy5ln2.html

  42. Player One @ #929 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 4:44 pm

    frednk @ #920 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 6:33 pm

    Two billion dollar on batteries that last 10 years or two billion on scheme that lasts a 100. As I said this could be labors NBN but I don’t think shorten is that stupid.

    I can’t figure out from this if you are in favor of pumped hydro or not! : )

    I know it’s not directed at me, and i’m interjecting anyway.

    I’m generally in support of pumped hydro where it is practical – meaning cost effective relative to other options.

    Specifically, I’m very dubious about the Snowy 2.0 proposal because its already known to be a decades old proposal that’s been passed over a number of times, and I think the aim is to solve a political problem for the L/NP rather than the perceived practical problem of wholesale electricity prices.

    There is very little doubt in my mind that there are a number of other options such as pumped hydro at alternate sites, wind, PV or CST that are going to achieve a better result sooner and in a more cost effective way.

    The cost of Snowy 2.0 blew out 50% as soon as it was exposed to basic scrutiny and before work had even started on the feasibility study. I’d hate to think what the cost of a fully commissioned Snowy 2.0 would be.

  44. grimace @ #942 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 7:04 pm

    Player One @ #929 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 4:44 pm

    frednk @ #920 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 6:33 pm

    Two billion dollar on batteries that last 10 years or two billion on scheme that lasts a 100. As I said this could be labors NBN but I don’t think shorten is that stupid.

    I can’t figure out from this if you are in favor of pumped hydro or not! : )

    I know it’s not directed at me, and i’m interjecting anyway.

    I’m generally in support of pumped hydro where it is practical – meaning cost effective relative to other options.

    Specifically, I’m very dubious about the Snowy 2.0 proposal because its already known to be a decades old proposal that’s been passed over a number of times, and I think the aim is to solve a political problem for the L/NP rather than the perceived practical problem of wholesale electricity prices.

    There is very little doubt in my mind that there are a number of other options such as pumped hydro at alternate sites, wind, PV or CST that are going to achieve a better result sooner and in a more cost effective way.

    The cost of Snowy 2.0 blew out 50% as soon as it was exposed to basic scrutiny and before work had even started on the feasibility study. I’d hate to think what the cost of a fully commissioned Snowy 2.0 would be.

    Bingo. This is being pushed by a goose that has backed himself into a corner by closing off every other option. It is purely the politics of Trumble trying to wake up in the Lodge one more morning. If and when a government that has left all the options open and so can choose the best one comes out and says this is a winner we can get interested. Until then this is just more money Trumble is happy to burn on the bonfire of his own vanity.

  46. Player One @ #943 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 5:07 pm

    Trog Sorrenson @ #938 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 6:57 pm

    Transmission costs are a major component of power costs.

    Blast! you’re quite right … if only we already had a transmission network … preferably one that had been “gold plated” over time by massive over-investment … oh, wait …

    You do remember that the transmission network requires an estimated $1b of upgrades to accommodate Snowy 2.0 don’t you?

  47. grimace @ #942 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 7:04 pm

    The cost of Snowy 2.0 blew out 50% as soon as it was exposed to basic scrutiny and before work had even started on the feasibility study. I’d hate to think what the cost of a fully commissioned Snowy 2.0 would be.

    Even if this were true (I don’t know, and we probably won’t get a real answer until the CBA is complete) the capital cost of Snowy 2.0 is still a fraction of the cost of an equivalent greenfields pumped hydro development.

  48. Somewhere near Snowy Hydro 2.0: “I wish Bronny would hurry up cos I don’t want to miss the start of Days of Our Lives.”

  50. grimace @ #946 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 7:12 pm

    You do remember that the transmission network requires an estimated $1b of upgrades to accommodate Snowy 2.0 don’t you?

    I do indeed. See my subsequent post. Even if this turns out to be true, the capital cost of Snowy Hydro 2.0 is low compared to comparable pumped hydro projects.

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