YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10

A deeper look into YouGov’s latest numbers, which are not unusual in finding the major parties evenly matched on the primary vote, but well out on a limb in having the Coalition slightly ahead on two-party preferred.

I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.

The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

997 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10”

  1. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-23/senior-politicians-rush-to-disclose-free-foxtel-subscriptions/8832532

    Some of Australia’s most senior politicians have been caught out not declaring a free pay television subscription worth up to $1,600 a year.

    Treasurer Scott Morrison and Industry Minister Arthur Sinodinos have rushed to update their register of interests after the ABC began contacting federal MPs.

    Labor MPs Anthony Albanese and Tim Watts, crossbench senator Derryn Hinch, and Greens MP Adam Bandt have also added the Foxtel or Austar subscriptions to their register.

    The pay TV lobby group ASTRA offers the freebie to all federal parliamentarians for their electorate offices.

    Many politicians have accepted and disclosed the subscription, while others, like Communications Minister Mitch Fifield, declined and paid for it themselves to avoid any potential conflict of interest.

  2. Thanks BK

    This podcast of Katherine Murphy’s Jay Weatherill interview provides a very interesting and thorough analysis of the national energy market, South Australia’s measures to take control, the mind numbing stupidity of the Coalition inaction on energy, and exactly how the carbon price – or lack thereof – affects both the daily operation of the electricity market as well as long term investment.
    Notably, Jay Weatherill sees the potential for the SA election in March to become a national referendum on energy issues.
    (If it’s not, let’s make it one.)

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/audio/2017/aug/22/theyre-insatiable-jay-weatherill-on-his-clash-with-the-coalition-on-energy-australian-politics-live-podcast

  3. victoria,

    I think even now Turnbull has lost the politics thanks to certain MSM publications and commentators even raising the possibility of Turnbull referring labor MPs to the HC.

    It may have seemed a good idea for the government to drop the ” we may refer ” line to its tame outlets but time and time again Turnbull has been outplayed by labor and time and time again has been found out re his lack of political nous.

    Labor will be asked today re this ” threat ” to refer and I am sure they are just waiting for the first question. Shorten gave a hint on Monday night as you say and also yesterday with his ” put up or shut up ” line and more will be coming.

    Turnbull may not have directly made the threat but labor will put it all on him.

    Turnbull will either end up looking like a vindictive goose if he does refer or a weak leader if he does not.

    Whoever made the call inside the government to ramp up this referral angle is a complete idiot. Labor will turn it into a test of character for Turnbull.

    Cheers and a great day to all.

  4. Doyley
    Good morning all,

    I am sure labor is ready and willing if Turnbull decides to refer their MP’s to the HC. In fact, I would not be surprised if this is exactly what labor wants Turnbull to do.

    One would think the HC would take a very dim view of being used as a political tool in the absence of any evidence at all that an MP may be disqualified.

    The HC is not a star chamber and would be expected to strongly rebuke the Government if it tried turn it into one.

  5. Barney

    Thanks for the link.

    We need to put all this in perspective. These are six verses out of more than 31,000 verses or roughly 0.016 per cent of the text.

    In contrast, the Bible contains more than 2,000 verses about money (and related issues of greed, wealth, loans, and property), and more than 100 specifically on one’s obligation to care for widows.
    In other words, monitoring and proscribing human (homo)sexual activity is not a particular concern of the Bible when compared to the overarching demand for justice, economic equality, and the fair treatment of foreigners and strangers.

    For certain Christian groups to make this the decisive Christian issue is simply a misreading of biblical values.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-23/same-sex-marriage-what-bible-has-to-say-robyn-whitaker/8831826

  6. briefly,

    Exactly right re the HC.

    That is why this threat to refer angle is rubbish. All it does is leave Turnbull with nowhere to run looking simply like a shag on a rock.

    Cheers.

  7. Lizzie

    it has been a disgrace that cannabis has been maligned over this past century. For thousands of years it has served humans well in maintaining their health.
    Finally, we have made a start here in Australia to legalise it for medicinal use, but it has a long way to go. big pharma has a lot to of answer for. Sigh…………

  8. I’m all for an audit of mps eligibility as long as it is public and widened to include financial interests so as to lay to rest any claims of potential bankruptcy and/or receiving money from the government via business interests.

    Craig Kelly, who calls for an audit of all mps on citizenship , is an example of why we need this audit.

    [Craig Kelly signed affidavits stating he was a director of his collapsed family furniture company — despite telling federal parliament earlier this year there was “no substance whatsoever” to suggestions he was pulling the strings. He also said he had told his accountant to resign the other directorships upon his election in 2010, but there was a delay, to 2011, in updating the register due to illness. ]

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2012/09/10/court-documents-conflict-with-liberal-mp-statement-on-company/

    Kelly’s resignation of directorships was delayed from 201 to 2011 because he said his accountant was ill.

    Has this happened with other LNP MPs, did they hold directorships in companies that were receiving money from the government making them ineligible, did they think they had resigned such directorships but actually had not.
    Do Turnbull’s Cayman funds invest in companies receiving government contracts, is there a conflict.

    Where any of the LNP MPs business interests properly sorted or are there potentially conflicts because there accountants were ill.

    We just don’t know, it is a mystery, which is why we need a full public audit of all their business and financial interests.

  9. [Doyley

    Whoever made the call inside the government to ramp up this referral angle is a complete idiot. Labor will turn it into a test of character for Turnbull.

    Cheers and a great day to all.]

    Smells like potato to me. 🙂

  10. From the GG article on ‘Heat on Shorten over citizenship papers refusal ‘

    ‘government MPs urge both major parties to provide relevant paperwork and ‘clear the air’. ‘.

    So in desperation to move the matter on they are asking Labor to provide their paperwork.

  11. victoria

    big pharma has a lot to of answer for

    I agree. They persuade governments to support their profits by declaring some alternative treatments illegal.

  12. Good Morning

    On the citizenship sage. If it was Labor in government and the LNP the opposition they would be blocking supply over this.

    Its a pity about the numbers in the Senate because I think this is what blocking supply was supposed to be all about.

  13. Shorten is flat out goading Trumble to refer him and his team. He knows he’s gold and that Trumble is stupid enough to do it.

    He probably also knows a few more coalition MHRs aren’t quite so sure as the Labor members. He’ll be hoping no one in cabinet can stop Trumble going nuclear, then Labor can quietly say ok, let’s check out these liberals and nats, at the same time.

    Labor will be itching to lay out the reasonable steps they go to in order to comply and let the HC compare and contrast with other processes.

  14. Some of Australia’s most senior politicians have been caught out not declaring a free pay television subscription worth up to $1,600 a year.

    Key points:

    Pay TV lobby group ASTRA offers the freebie
    Morrison, Sinodinos, Albanese, Hinch and Bandt update register of interests
    There is confusion about whether politicians need to declare the gift
    Treasurer Scott Morrison and Industry Minister Arthur Sinodinos have rushed to update their register of interests after the ABC began contacting federal MPs.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-23/senior-politicians-rush-to-disclose-free-foxtel-subscriptions/8832532

  15. victoria+lizzie

    It is not “big pharma”, you can bet they will muscle in on the legal version in a big way . The whole cannabis crap was kicked of by Elliot Ness’ boss. Looking for ‘work’ post Prohibition he went after cannabis+opium using racism. Cannabis = Mexicans, opium = Chinese (Asiatics) all “corrupting society” . American morals campaigners have been on the bandwagon ever since.

  16. Lizzie

    Precisely.

    imagine a Plant that can be grown in the garden being used to treat most ailments. No wonder the US govt made it a schedule 1 drug. Yet it is the opioid prescription drugs that is killing thousands of people each year,

  17. This Foxtel thing shows the stark difference between Australia and the US – our media etc. chase the smallest gift/issue … while in America the oligarchs just suck the country dry and get away with it.

  18. Jen

    Yes. Of course Murdoch want free access to his propaganda for politicians.

    A very good reason I think it should be ABC News 24 the official channel in Parliament. If its good enough for the plebs with question time its good enough for the politicians.

    Who knows we might get all press conferences covered like Sky do if that happens.

  19. The relatives, colleagues and friends of the tens of thousands of Pakistanis who have died at the hands of US enemies inside Pakistan will be well and truly pissed off at Trump’s ham fisted insults.

    Dopey and dangerous?

    Why has Turnbull hitched himself to this delusional klutz?

  20. ratsak
    Labor will be itching to lay out the reasonable steps they go to in order to comply and let the HC compare and contrast with other processes.

    The HC is not an investigative body and should not – to be sure, will not – permit itself to be used to investigate MPs. Nor should MPs be willing to submit to such a process. If the Parliament wishes to inquire into its own members, it certainly has the power to do it. But it really should not submit itself to any other branch of Government. That would be a very great derogation of the Parliament.

  21. Boerwar @ #76 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 9:20 am

    The relatives, colleagues and friends of the tens of thousands of Pakistanis who have died at the hands of US enemies inside Pakistan will be well and truly pissed off at Trump’s ham fisted insults.

    Dopey and dangerous?

    Why has Turnbull hitched himself to this delusional klutz?

    A rhetorical question I assume.

  22. Rick Wilson
    Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
    This is a nuclear weapon, detonating in the White House.

    McConnell, in Private, Doubts if Trump Can Save Presidency

    Trump and McConnell Locked in a Cold War, Threatening the G.O.P. Agenda
    nytimes.com

  23. gt

    “Pay TV lobby group ASTRA offers the freebie

    There is confusion about whether politicians need to declare the gift”

    So politicians who vote on legislation effecting the media are approached by a relitively well known media lobby group asking if they’d like a fres Foxtell servicw.

    It seems many have accepted but only very small numbers have declared this.

    One claims he thought it was part of his parliamentry entitlements (If true, obviously the lobby group are not good at what they do!).

    Another claims he didn’t report it because ‘everyone’ gets it (‘everyone’? I haven’t been offered one! ‘Everyone’ obviously consists of Federal politicians only).

    It just shows that a good number of our political representatives are to dumb even to be ordinary voters.

    ‘Lost in Space’.

  24. The thing that amazes me is how many politicians fall for the free gift thin.

    This is what undermines public trust. Its no wonder people think politicians are paid too much and in it for themselves when this happens.

    My advice for all politicians. No free gifts no matter how innocent they appear. Pay for everything and keep a clear conscience you are representing your constituents not being influenced by free gifts from any source.

    Same goes for doctors with Big Pharma paid for education courses.

    Other methods should be found like Tafe courses for doctors on drugs effects.

  25. Great stuff Lizzie

    I think that almost ALL legends and myths have a basis in reality, so I readily believe the accuracy of those Aboriginal myths and their relationship to Volcanoes.

    I think that other old myths eg Norse myths of Ragnarok seem very much to tell of a seismic event – earthquake volcanoes and tsunamis, followed by years of plenty, which exactly reflects the aftermath of a particularly severe seismic event. The ubiquity of flood myths also seems to indicate some massive flooding event in the middle east/Mediterranean.

    I suspect that myths of trolls, giants, dwarves and fairies may well reflect tribal encounters with other tribes of distinctive appearance, especially as we now know that other distinctive human races did co-habit with more modern types – eg a troll could well be a remnant neanderthal and dwarves people such as the Flores “hobbits.” Encounters with remnant Turkana boy tribes could well suggest giants.

    It struck me as I read Lizzies link that there is similarity between the rainbow serpent myths and the Norse tale of Joramun (the serpent who circles the world). Both seem related to earthquakes/volcanoes.

    If as we can assume the rainbow serpent myth is ancient perhaps 65,000 years it is not too hard to assume some distant relatives of our Aboriginals took the myth to the Nordic peoples or those that were in future to become the Nordic people.

  26. “Pay TV lobby group ASTRA offers the freebie

    There is confusion about whether politicians need to declare the gift”

    There’s quite a bit of ‘confusion’ in the Tax Legislation, so I might try that defence this year.

  27. That eclipse was Yuuuge. Believe me. It was the biggest ever let me tell you. I put it on to make America Great Again.
    And the usual fake news liars are trying to pretend it was the moon!

  28. It should not Briefly, but since when has that ever stopped the Libs.

    Labor aren’t driving the bus over the cliff, but if Trumble insists then Shorten will make sure plenty of Libs have seats, but he and his will get off at the last stop before the chasm.

    There’s no depths these scumbags won’t sink to. If Trumble wants to go lower Labor can’t stop them. But they should do what they can to ensure the Libs get blown up and Labor stays clear of the shrapnel.

  29. [Boerwar
    That eclipse was Yuuuge. Believe me. It was the biggest ever let me tell you. I put it on to make America Great Again.
    And the usual fake news liars are trying to pretend it was the moon!
    ]

    I prefer the ancient line of thought that an eclipse portends to a looming disaster or tragedy.

    Hopefully to Trump’s presidency.

    Not that this would be a disaster or a tragedy. 🙂

  30. Victoria

    Enjoy your hero Pence.

    Personally now that it is clear that Trump is a powerless non-entity, we must all consider the sanity/rationality/interests of those who govern the USA.

    This Let’s attack Pakistan stuff is crazy – yet another country to be bombed to the stone age- WHY? Presumably the military/Kuchner/???? who now are really in charge think yet another war is the best strategy.

    The really scary thing is that CHINA will oppose this particular piece of US insanity . So now the US/China war flash points have spread form the ones we know (NK, Taiwan and the South China Sea) to India (the Bhuatan border), Pakistan and Afghanistan.

    Oddly enough this one does NOT involve Russia directly since China’s objective is to open up an alternative route for Gulf /Iranian oil that avoids the south china Sea AND reduced reliance on Russia.

  31. The Australian Electoral Commission has announced that from when the postal survey was called on 8 August until 20 August there were 36,769 new enrollments and 434,026 updates to enrollment details. This means new enrollments were just 7.8% of enrollment transactions.

    In the weeks leading up to the close of rolls after the 2016 election was called on 8 May there were 132,000 additions to the electoral roll, out of a total 687,000 enrollment transactions.

    That’s actually pretty comparable. You would expect more enrollments at the 2016 election because the previous enrollment drive was a long time before (1029 days). In this case, it’s only 418 days. More people will have moved to the country, or turned 18 in 1029 days than 418, and thus need to enroll.

    The 2016 election campaign saw 128 registrations per day since the previous enrollment drive.

    Assuming the final number creeps up a bit from 36,760 to 40k in the last 4 days, then the ME survey has seen 96 registrations per day since the previous enrollment drive. Lower, but not bad for a voluntary opinion poll.

  32. With that news about the rate decrease and the partnership of the LGBTI community in combating the disease surely its time for equality.

    Even with rights being denied the gay community has stepped up and done the responsible thing.
    Kudos goes to our politicians for actually listening to the gay community on this and making NSW a world leader in fighting the disease.

  33. VE,

    The interesting figure is the update one that shows how keen existing voters are to take part.

    In a normal election this is not critical as you can just vote absent in your old electorate if you have moved.

    In this postal thingy you will only get the opportunity to take part if your address is correct.

  34. guytaur

    “Wonderful news: NSW has recorded the lowest rate of new HIV notifications since 1985”

    Wonderful news: NSW has recorded the lowest rate of new HIV notifications since 1985″

    I note these figures relate only to ‘gay and bi-sexual men’.

    Is the female of the species immune?

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