YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10

A deeper look into YouGov’s latest numbers, which are not unusual in finding the major parties evenly matched on the primary vote, but well out on a limb in having the Coalition slightly ahead on two-party preferred.

I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.

I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.

The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

997 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Coalition 34, Labor 33, Greens 10, One Nation 10”

  1. DTT

    “Oddly enough this one does NOT involve Russia directly since China’s objective is to open up an alternative route for Gulf /Iranian oil that avoids the south china Sea AND reduced reliance on Russia.”

    I note you’ve said ‘directly’.

    Yep. Obviously the Russian would prefer ‘Not’ but their influence in these countries much less than in other places.

  2. Hugh Riminton‏Verified account @hughriminton · 27m27 minutes ago

    Labor tells @SkyNewsAust Senators and MPs must be clear of contracts with the Crown. It’s the law. #auspol

  3. New HIV notifications have fallen by 39% in Australia’s biggest state. PrEP is only of one the reasons for the drop.
    New South Wales has just recorded the lowest number of new diagnoses since the start of the epidemic in the 1980s
    Only 101 gay and bisexual men were diagnosed in the first six months of 2017. The data was revealed today in NSW’s quarterly HIV Data Report.
    ‘The data demonstrates our continuing leadership in HIV prevention – we are experiencing one of the most rapid decreases in new HIV notifications among gay and bisexual men anywhere in the world,’ said NSW Health’s Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant.
    The dramatic drop was the result of public campaigns to encourage more testing, improve treatment rates and provide access to preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP).
    PrEP is a HIV prevention medical treatment which has a high efficacy rate.
    ‘In the first half of this year, 286,626 tests were performed across NSW – 33 per cent more than the same period in 2012,’ Chant said.
    ‘Early detection enables early treatment. This improves the health for people with HIV and prevents HIV from being passed on to others.
    ‘95% of people diagnosed in public clinics and private practices are on HIV treatment, and people newly diagnosed with HIV are starting treatment sooner than ever before.
    ‘Added to that, NSW is running the world’s largest PrEP trial, EPIC-NSW. So we’re fighting this battle on three fronts.’
    Unprecedented results
    The Kirby Institute is leading the EPIC NSW trial. Its director, Professor David Cooper, said it was the collaboration between agencies that helped achieve the results.
    ‘The dramatic reductions in HIV notifications we have achieved are unprecedented,’ he said.
    But new diagnoses among people born overseas or heterosexual people have remained the same.
    ‘While testing rates are at an all-time high, more needs to be done to reach people at high risk of HIV who aren’t aware of their risk,’ Chant said.

    https://www.gaystarnews.com/article/heres-reason-hiv-numbers-dropped-australia/#gs.=Gji4XA

    Its time for Prep to be on the PBS. This is massive. Income should be no barrier to access.

  4. Russia is also aiding the development of North Korea’s Ballistic Missile arsenal and the nuclear warhead for it.

    Nice guys. We should trust them. More than Hillary Clinton!

  5. The PM is unbelievable in his hypocrisy.

    Did Turnbull find the posters hurtful? “Well yes I do,” he responded.

    And the advice is, hugs.

    “If you have friends who are really distressed by this sort of language, stand up for them, put your arms around them.

    “This is a time to put your arms around them and give them your love and support.”

    The Prime Minister — who again stated he and wife Lucy would vote “yes” — was then forced to defend the entire postal vote exercise with host Rusciano questioning whether a non-binding vote was “democracy”.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/08/21/malcolm-turnbull-says-put-your-arms-around-hurt-gay-friends_a_23156411/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage

  6. ‘fess

    Republican’s in Congress, I guess, are composed of a portion of still pro-Trump, some who only ‘support’ him because he’s not a Democrat and some with no time for him at all.

    And all of them with lots to worry about at mid-term Congressional elections!

  7. lizzie @ #108 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 10:14 am

    The PM is unbelievable in his hypocrisy.

    Did Turnbull find the posters hurtful? “Well yes I do,” he responded.

    And the advice is, hugs.

    “If you have friends who are really distressed by this sort of language, stand up for them, put your arms around them.

    “This is a time to put your arms around them and give them your love and support.”

    The Prime Minister — who again stated he and wife Lucy would vote “yes” — was then forced to defend the entire postal vote exercise with host Rusciano questioning whether a non-binding vote was “democracy”.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/08/21/malcolm-turnbull-says-put-your-arms-around-hurt-gay-friends_a_23156411/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage

    Indeed. Trumble is so used to dispensing bullshit on demand, he doesn’t know the difference anymore.

  8. C@

    Russia is also aiding the development of North Korea’s Ballistic Missile arsenal and the nuclear warhead for it.

    I saw the article that said the improved rockets were almost certainly sourced from a former Russian factory in the Ukraine.

    Not clear to me if this factory in the Russian influenced area of the Ukraine or not.

  9. stanleyward90: .@CroweDM Did you clear this with your bosses? On the Newscorpse Richter scale of reporting, this is near treasonous. twitter.com/CroweDM/status…
    CroweDM: Abbott: “If you don’t like the direction of the country, vote no
    “CroweDM: Bill Shorten’s response to Tony Abbott the line of the night so far. #qanda

  10. MWhitbourn: Guy Reynolds SC tells High Court govt may seek security for legal costs as ALP challenges Nationals MP David Gillespie’s eligibility #auspol

  11. CTar1 @ #112 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 10:20 am

    C@

    Russia is also aiding the development of North Korea’s Ballistic Missile arsenal and the nuclear warhead for it.

    I saw the article that said the improved rockets were almost certainly sourced from a former Russian factory in the Ukraine.

    Not clear to me if this factory in the Russian influenced area of the Ukraine or not.

    This quote by Steve Mnuchin is helpful:

    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement. “It is unacceptable for individuals and companies in China, Russia, and elsewhere to enable North Korea to generate income used to develop weapons of mass destruction and destabilize the region.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/22/treasury-unveils-new-sanctions-on-chinese-russian-entities-in-push-to-pressure-north-korea.html?via=newsletter&source=CSPMedition

    Now, ‘elsewhere’ may refer to areas such as you have suggested. I believe so because the sanctions recently reinforced by the American Congress were directed at Russia, not the Ukraine.

  12. guytaur @ #114 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 10:21 am

    stanleyward90: .@CroweDM Did you clear this with your bosses? On the Newscorpse Richter scale of reporting, this is near treasonous. twitter.com/CroweDM/status…
    CroweDM: Abbott: “If you don’t like the direction of the country, vote no
    “CroweDM: Bill Shorten’s response to Tony Abbott the line of the night so far. #qanda

    What was Bill’s ‘killer’ line again?

  13. C@tmomma

    What was Bill’s ‘killer’ line again?

    I think Bill said “If you don’t like the direction of the country, vote Labor”

    ☕ (>‿◠)✌

  14. To those bludgers who were complaining about Shorten not giving in to coalition demands to prove that he is not a dual national, it is crystal clear just a few days later, that he has played Trumble yet again, highlighting once again, his political ineptitude.

    By refusing to play the coalition’s game, he has left them with nowhere to go, and prevented them then asking for proof for all other Labor politicians they care to throw wild accusations at.

    Despite Tony Jones frothing at the mouth, and a few mentions on ABC news and AM, only The Australian is still carrying on with this garbage. When even the numbskulls in the CPG generally leave it alone, you know you are on a winner.

    It’s been clear for quite a while now that the coalition cheer squad in the media have done them a disservice, encouraging validating their bullshit, and every tactical error that they make. This is just another example.

  15. Lizzie,

    Actually I think he’s right.

    Prior to 1983 citizenship by ancestry only passed from the father.

    IIRC this was changed when they joined the EU as it was considered discriminatory.

  16. ozrigger1948: @Funkyfetlock @billshortenmp @AustralianLabor @MagdaSzubanski Really? Because she is a lesbian actress does that mean her inner thoughts have to be rammed down our throats?

    MagdaSzubanski: So weary of ‘rammed down our throats’ argument As tho 6 mins me on tv= 24/7 heterosexual ideas and images #rammeddownmythroat so 2 speak

  17. Trump Blew A Gasket Because Mitch McConnell Won’t Protect Him From The Russia Investigation

    The real reason why Trump is angry at Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is that he blames McConnell for not doing enough to protect him from the Russia investigation.

    If there were nothing to the Russia investigation, Trump wouldn’t need protection. The fact that the President thinks he does is an indication that the surface has just begun to be scratched in the Russia scandal.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/22/trump-blew-gasket-mitch-mcconnell-protect-russia-investigation.html

  18. @ Barney – Lizzie wasn’t saying he’s wrong. Of course he isn’t a Kiwi Citizen. He’s Scottish + Australian dual citizen.

    When he first entered parliament, he was only an Australian citizen, but when he ran in the 2016 election, he was a citizen of Britain. Hence ineligible.

  19. Consumed With Russia And Unhinged Trump Blew Up At McConnell For Russia Sanctions Bill

    An unhinged Donald Trump is reported to be obsessed with the Russia investigation to the point where he blew up and swore at Majority Leader Mitch McConnell after the Senate passed the Russia sanctions bill.

    Donald Trump is obsessed with Russia, but the Russia scandal is where his crimes are. Trump is losing it, and alienating the Senate Majority Leader who controls his fate could be the final mistake that undoes the Trump presidency.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/22/consumed-russia-unhinged-trump-blew-mcconnell-russia-sanctions-bill.html

  20. George and Amal Clooney give $1 million to combat U.S. hate groups

    Actor George Clooney and his humanitarian lawyer wife, Amal Clooney, have donated $1 million to the Southern Poverty Law Center, a U.S. non-profit that monitors extremists and domestic hate groups, in response to protests in Charlottesville, Virginia earlier this month.

    Southern Poverty Law Center President Richard Cohen thanked the Clooneys for “standing with us at this critical moment in our country’s fight against hate.”

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/22/george-amal-clooney-give-1-million-combat-u-s-hate-groups.html

  21. C@/VE

    I’ve seem mention of the rockets themselves which would possibly have implications for Russia in the transport of them to NK. i.e. they and the Chinese are the only countries with land borders with NK and the likelehood that the Chines would miss / allow a rocket body to go over the border are, I suggest, nil.

    However on nuclear weapons (rocket mountable or not) I don’t think I’ve seen any suggested ‘help’ (credible or not) on this other than from Pakistan ?

  22. Jennifer Hewett (Australian Financial Review $): “The catch for Malcolm Turnbull is that most consumers don’t know and don’t care what a connectivity virtual circuit (CVC) charge is. Just like their power, they just want their broadband to turn on and work reliably without suffering sticker shock from the bills.”

  23. “”A slump in consumer spending is a more immediate threat to the Australian economy than a property crash, “”
    When the country is in debt up to it’s eyeballs, there is less money to spend in the shops, results in a downturn in the economy.
    The banks are sucking the system dry!.

  24. When the HC knocks this appalling votesurveyfarcethingy on the head Trumble is going to be looking like a goose. Piss weak for doing it in the first place, moronic for asserting it would be dignified, and incompetent for promising it was legal when it isn’t.

    Just the smear and lunacy unleashed will remain as the memorial to our most useless PM.

  25. Collision of USS John S. McCain is met with ‘applause’ in China, according to state media

    •USS John S. McCain’s collision with a merchant ship was met with “applause from Chinese netizens,” a Beijing mouthpiece says
    •U.S. Navy has behaved “arrogantly” in Asia-Pacific, lacking respect for huge merchant ships, the Global Times claims

    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/21/uss-john-s-mccain-accident-created-applause-chinese-state-media.html

  26. ratsak

    I am loving the enrolment statistics. Thats the type of thing that sees the LNP get the knives out for the leader. Especially if the Hight Court does block it 🙂

  27. lizzie @ #108 Wednesday, August 23rd, 2017 – 10:14 am

    The PM is unbelievable in his hypocrisy.
    “If you have friends who are really distressed by this sort of language, stand up for them, put your arms around them.
    This is a time to put your arms around them and give them your love and support.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/08/21/malcolm-turnbull-says-put-your-arms-around-hurt-gay-friends_a_23156411/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage

    I actually find this incredibly offensive. The one person with the gift to do good but who squandered it for self interest and personal gain is telling those injured by his neglect they need a hug, on his advice. I don’t need a fucking hug. I need a prime minister with some spine and a moral compass.

  28. samanthamaiden: Intriguing that @cpyne says Commonwealth NOT paying for High Court costs. Not what the Attorney General submission to the High Court says

  29. Listened to BBC last night and one of their items took them to some place in Missouri – to the office of one of only 7 newspapers in the States which supported Trump at the elections.

    Quizzed by the reporter as to whether they – the editors/owners thought they had made a mistake with Trump – an emphatic No from them. Their argument was predictable along the lines that he is is ‘businessman not a politician’ , that he is being ‘distracted’ and the ‘media’ and is not being fair to him.

    This lot had faith that he was going to fix things up. I guess the place would be akin to somewhere in the sticks of WA in terms of political/social attitudes but this lot have not given up on Trump just yet.

  30. 9News headline

    “Citizenship debacle: Arthur Sinodinos may be unwittingly Greek”

    http://www.9news.com.au/national/2017/08/22/15/02/citizenship-debacle-arthur-sinodinos-may-be-unwittingly-greek

    Everything is ‘unwitting’ about Sinodinos – “Don’t recall, Didn’t know”.

    But Arfur may be safe on this one. The story baldly claims “Greek migrants were required to register their children’s birth with the Greek consulate at the time of Sinodinos’ birth.”

    The Greek Govt might ‘require’ but what would they do if people didn’t? The only thing I can think of would be deny the ‘child’ Greek Citizenship at a later date.

    So I think if Sinodinos checked and got a negitive and if challenged can demonstrate he did then he has nothing to worry about on this.

    Same situation as Shorten and like numbers of others.

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