Here’s BludgerTrack, updated with all of one data point from Essential Research. Labor is down a bit on two-party preferred but unchanged on the seat projection, with a loss in New South Wales balanced by a gain in Victoria. And that’s yer lot.
BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor
With only one new poll this week, the latest BludgerTrack update yields little to report.
In all seriousness though – you know what the Turnbull government has become? Ridiculous.
I dont think there’s a way back from that.
‘I dont think there’s a way back from that.’
I think you are probably correct, they may close the gap a little, (teh narrowing!) but I can’t see them getting back into Office after the next election.
lefty e – Yup. But in the face of sure electoral defeat, I think Malcolm will squeeze out every day he can as PM.
From The Shovel
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Itzadream
Racism is ALWAYS present in any society but only emerges as an issue when there is stress – like mouth ulcers or Herpes.
I have been doing a little research on the extent to which it is or is not re-emerging ie is it in fact worse than it was, but I am not sure I am any the wiser. I think it might depend on which groups are being targeted.
Obviously racism towards blacks fell strongly in 2008, since the USA of 1958 would never have elected a black president. Has it re-emerged. Perhaps or perhaps people are more energized to admit heir racism -a sort of response to the black lives matter campaign. In this case it has not re-emerged but is just more public.
dtt
The progressive left is failing in that rather than carrying on like pork chops re nasty Trump, they should be getting down to the much, much harder task of sorting out WHY there I such anger in the USA, why racism has re-emerged and how they can restore at least a semblance of racial harmony.
As with most things it is the economy that is the issue, and while the Democrats and anti Trumpists carry on about a variety of civil rights issues while ignoring the economic issues, they will get no traction. You cannot EVER expect to have racial harmony in times of economic insecurity.
dtt echoes Trump, the neo-Nazi sympathiser and finds a way to be both excuse racists such as Trump while blaming non racists for racists such as Trump.
Nuffink has changed wiv dtt
Wondering whether the sheer weight of numbers will sway High Court in favour of allowing all these dual- cits to keep working?
jenauthor – If the High Court did that, it would look very political. I suspect they won’t want to be making too many distinctions between the various pollies and will boot the lot.
He can certainly be held to blame for the reaction and what could laughably be called the strategy to deal with the crisis.
I’d be dissapointed Jen.
Be like having 18 from one club on charges for a fight during an AFL match.
‘Can’t suspend them, their finals chances will be stuffed.’
My hope is that Malcolm will decide to clean everything up by calling an election (particularly if the libs have a lot more skeletons in their closet, which I bet they do). But I suspect that now he looks totally ridiculous and is heading for defeat he will hang on as long as he possibly can (at least into 2019). That’s the kinda guy he is.
DTT
I think the re-emergence of the nastiness is purely coming from the fact that Trump has broken the rules and come out the victor regardless.
That emboldens people who’d normally keep to themselves their utter nastiness.
You see it in a crowd when one person speaks up … others look around for a moment and then yell ‘yeah, me too!’ when if left to their own voice, they’d not speak up at all.
Trump yelled loud and clear “I don’t care about propriety or rules! I don’t care about other people’s rights or sensibilities! Look at me – I’m a success anyway!”
And the nasties lapped it up, just like Hanson stimulates the worst in some here.
I agree with Murphy, Hanson lapped up that rebuke from the AG. You could see her working to not smirk.
These people represent a reprehensible minority yet they are loud. Like a boil on your bum they make you very uncomfortable but you have to wait until they burst on their own or you make it worse.
I agree JB and Anton BUT it is likely to be rationalised as expedient rather than political by the coalition.
And won’t the illustrious 4th estate say this was a cunning plan from that brilliant barrister, Turnbull
lizzie @ #99 Friday, August 18th, 2017 – 9:26 am
Yes. How appalling. This government couldn’t lie straight in bed.
On the plus side, I think we are seeing the “end of days” for Mal.
I can’t see what the coalition gained by keeping the Nash announcement on hold for so long, other than preventing it dominating the news for a few hours (early in the day they weren’t to know Hanson would bulldoze everything else away). They will have to refer Nash to the HC when they return.
antonbruckner11
The solicitor general must be absolutely squirming about the way they are obviously misrepresenting his advice (which must be full of caveats). Gleeson would not have stood for it.
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Exactly. Anyway, we will see soon enough when the pleadings (or whatever they call them) are published.
DTT,
This might be instructive for you, it’s about ME but the principles are easily translated to any debate.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-17/same-sex-marriage-not-all-views-deserve-respect/8816096
‘Cunning’ I’d call it cun#ing
“My hope is that Malcolm will decide to clean everything up by calling an election”
Yeah…look how well that worked last time with the brilliance that was the DD election.
Dont think that will happen unless they lose their majority in the HoR.
And hey, if they do maybe they will ask Bill to provide a speaker from the ALP side to even things up??
MB
I could instantly be proved wrong about this, but I’m forming the impression It appears that the Labor Party has established a fail-safe mechanism
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It cannot be fail-safe and does not have to be. Just thorough. Which is what it appears to be.
Solicitor General’s advice;
I think they are f@#%ed,
but, there is a remote chance that a past minority view may now gain a majority.
Wage inequality is the primary cause of the dumb Trumper’s.
However, while I accept that 36% of the US could be as thick as a brick, I do not accept that many are white supremacist filth.
We shall just have to wait and see how long that 36% line can hold up. It has been quite resilient, but gradually looking weaker. You cannot say that support will remain with certainty.
Oh dear! Xenophon now having to check for dual citizenship due to Cyprus being a former British colony.
If you don’t like white supremacist filth, you have to condemn Trump.
Arguments about how “it could get worse if you are mean to him” are piss-weak. You can’t fix a problem by pandering to it. That is what enabler’s do.
Barney – No, the SG was asked to assume that Barney’s father was, in fact, the milkman whose family definitely came on the first fleet. On that basis, is there a problem!
Jenauthor
Trump yelled loud and clear “I don’t care about propriety or rules! I don’t care about other people’s rights or sensibilities! Look at me – I’m a success anyway!”
And the nasties lapped it up, just like Hanson stimulates the worst in some here.
I agree with Murphy, Hanson lapped up that rebuke from the AG. You could see her working to not smirk.
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Just because they get a win among their base when they are attacked for being racist does not mean that it should not be done. Murphy may likely be right about Hanson scoring brownie points among her base who share her reprehensible and dangerous views.
However, Brandis’s response from the heart was a great rallying point for the rest of us, who are subject to starting to doubt the basis of our own decency when people in power do not speak up for what is right.
Trump, as the President of the USA, had a duty to his whole nation to excoriate the Nazis and their fellow travellers who attacked the peaceful people of Charlottesville. Even if that reinforced the views of a small number of alienated people that they were even further out of the mainstream. The fact that he didn’t, and further endorsed their values by not attacking them, disheartened people who thought that the values of the USA were something better than a pathetic imitation of Mein Kampf.
Turnbull took ownership of the problem the second he decided not to stand-down Barnarby Joyce and then bragged about the High Court finding in Joyce’s favour.
They talk about Whitlam being a “crash through or crash” politician. Turnbull gives master classes in it.
Despite one successful court case and a lucky investment that turned a 120-times profit in a couple of years for him, what else has he done that’s been successful? Sure, he’s worth $200 million now, but increasing $60 million to $200 million over 20 years or so is child’s play. He could have bought flats in Bondi with his $60 million in the 1990s, sat on them until now, and made 5 times as much as his “business” investments have turned for him. He’s no business genius.
Right back from Godwin Grech days Turnbull has shown that his view of his own brilliance exceeds his actual abilities to manage political affairs. In trying to avoid accusations (presumably from the Gallery commentariat) of running a disorganized shop with MPs and Senators on all over the place stand-down, he’s kept them on the gravy train and invited even greater ridicule.
Even Turnbull fanboi Waleed Aly (despite his sympathy… who knew?) can’t let Turnbull off the hook on this one.It’s a disaster all of his own making. The cries of international treachery, despite Mesma’s Death Stare performance in QT the other day, have only invited laughter and more cynicism. The veil is lifting when bobbysoxers like Laura Tingle admit it’s a mess. Kenny has used the “H” word…”H” for”hapless”.
The “It’s just another flesh wound” scenario has been re-written to suit modern Australian politics. How long before the public decides that Turnbull is just general bad news? His was the mob who bragged in 2011 that they were “ready to govern” at the drop of a hat.Abbott even cancelled parliamentary leave and broke “pairs” to give us the impression that there could be a handover at any tick of the clock.
It’s simple: if Turnbull wants the bouquets he has to accept the brickbats too. He’s got a rabble underneath him, a seething benighted mob of halfwits and chancers, backstabbers and sleeve tuggers. And all he can say in return is “Bill Shorten done it!”.
Turnbull didn’t cause the Nats to stuff up their nomination forms, but he’s made it infinitely worse by trying to be a smart-arsed spiv about it. His own glory has blinded him once again. He’s hopeless at politics and even his allies are starting to admit it.
ItzaDream
HAHAHA luv it.
mb
Greetings and all that!
At least ‘alive’ to the issue and if I recall correctly zoomster says she was queried more than once so someone in the Labor admin would seem to be ‘back checking’ as developments have occurred.
Maybe not ‘foolproof’ but at least shows some diligence by the party.
And you are right the ‘others’ seem to have just ticked because that’s what they do with forms or thought ‘this will never come up’.
Question,
This is highlighted in Charlottesville.
This wasn’t the local community protesting in numbers, it was largely people outside the immediate area and outside the State being focused on one point.
When you look at the the catchment area they represent a tiny minority.
This new set has pretty much driven me off this site. Just going back and forth with BK’s links is enough to take more time than I have to spare, let alone engage. Please, can we have the old one back. Pretty please!
Lukey
Oh dear! Xenophon now having to check for dual citizenship due to Cyprus being a former British colony.
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This case raises very interesting questions about how far an individual would have to go to check whether they may be in breach of s.44. Xenophon’s father is a Cypriot, but because of the way that the British Empire slowly unravelled after WW2, it so happens that he appears to have been a British subject, and not a Cypriot citizen, at the precise time that Nick was born.
How much historical research does an individual have to do before they can be satisfied they are not a potential dual citizen?
This will be an interesting test for the High Court.
Good Morning
BB
Your post this morning was the first to greet me. I could not agree with your summary more.
Its an own goal and even the Canberra Press Gallery realises it.
The Bishop conspiracy theory joke has gained new legs today with Senator Xenophon turning out to be a British citizen as well as Nash.
It will be interesting to see the difference of how Xenophon handles it compared to the Greens and LNP examples.
Lukey @ Friday, August 18th, 2017 – 11:02 am Comment #173
Maybe Xenophon will find out he’s actually Turkish Cypriot rather than Greek Cypriot!
🙂
It’s hard to believe that the Brits were handing out citizenship to Cypriots (and particularly children of Cypriots) when it was a crown colony.
MarkDiStef: I don’t believe there isn’t an S44’d Labor MP.
http://chaser.com.au/news/islamic-woman-attends-mosque-dressed-as-pauline-hanson/
pritu
I don’t know if you’re already ding it, but the only way to cope is to open each BK (or any other link) in a new tab, then you won’t lose your place so easily.
TPOF
Oh I agree with what Brandis said … it is the only time I have had respect for him in all these years of bumbling.
But I do think that playing to their vocal base is a tactic that is mostly for self-aggrandisement. Narcissism is the key trait but those minority adherents feel emboldened by it, even though it is so unpalatable to rest of us.
Hanson is deplorable and her tactics are the same. BUt Trump has given the used-car salesman routine a faux validity that is resonating around the world in the worst possible way. They’ve given it a platform.
Watching it, I can’t help think we’re suddenly in an alternate reality where selfishness and self-interest trumps (pun intended) common sense.
Moral philosophers will look at this time in history with astonishment, methinks.
AntonyGreenABC: New Zealanders having some fun with out current political problems. nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/a… #auspol pic.twitter.com/QRQU60JMen
https://twitter.com/antonygreenabc/status/898352077763510272
BB
Even Turnbull fanboi Waleed Aly (despite his sympathy… who knew?) can’t let Turnbull off the hook on this one.It’s a disaster all of his own making. The cries of international treachery, despite Mesma’s Death Stare performance in QT the other day, have only invited laughter and more cynicism. The veil is lifting when bobbysoxers like Laura Tingle admit it’s a mess. Kenny has used the “H” word…”H” for”hapless”.
______________________________________
If Turnbull had played a straight bat – even by making an implausible distinction with Canavan’s case – he could have maintained the faith of his fan club. However, the bizarre misjudgement of alleging a conspiracy with a foreign power and then doubling down on that absurdity made it impossible for the fan club to continue to be seen to be supporting him. It was so absurd that to support it or shrug it off as just politics would undermine what credibility they had left even amongst themselves.
Basically, Prince Charming made one patent misjudgement too many.
BigD,
Yep. A small minority who chose to isolate themselves with their own anti-social views (nobody is born hating because of race). We owe them nothing but scorn.
Looks like a Xeno-stunt to me.
Xenophon has said he won’t resign. If he’d stand aside I guess he would say so, but I haven’t seen a report of him saying so.
Boris @ Friday, August 18th, 2017 – 9:47 am Comment #121
I think you mean ‘should’.
I don’t recall scads of the Cabinet members abstaining on Coalition negative gearing voting because they had investment properties, just as one example.
Spot on BB,
It’s been a long time since I’ve read Tingle or Waleed without being annoyed. I’m not used to it!
Jen
Watching it, I can’t help think we’re suddenly in an alternate reality where selfishness and self-interest trumps (pun intended) common sense.
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It only trumps common sense if common sense goes into a shell. It needs to stand up and shout its existence and logic.
A good reason why a maximum ‘yes’ response is necessary if this abhorrent postal thingy goes ahead. We need to be out there and supporting what is right.
[antonbruckner11
Barney – No, the SG was asked to assume that Barney’s father was, in fact, the milkman whose family definitely came on the first fleet. On that basis, is there a problem!]
Leave my parentage out of this, my mother is a fine upstanding Christian with the appropriate morals to match (anti-
ME etc,) despite raising three atheist sons.
You do raise an interesting point relating to parentage.
In the past the only absolute in your ancestry is your mother.
In parts of Sumatra they recognise this and it is tradition that inheritance is passed through the female line.
Travel to regional areas in Europe has been considered safe enough until now.
The attacks in Nice, Manchester and Barcelona are, I suspect, a deliberate strategy.
They’ll target where ever there are enough people (and they don’t care who) are gathered together.
BB @11:06AM: “Turnbull took ownership of the problem the second he decided not to stand-down Barnarby Joyce and then bragged about the High Court finding in Joyce’s favour.”
Exactly.