Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

The Coalition takes a hit in the latest voting intention reading from Essential Research, which also records solid support for anything on same-sex marriage other than inaction.

The Guardian reports Essential Research has Labor’s lead bouncing back to 54-46, after diminishing over recent weeks to 52-48 a week ago. The changes on the primary vote are rather striking by the standards of Essential’s fortnight rolling average, with Labor up three to 39% and the Coalition down two to a meagre 34% (UPDATE: Make that down one to 37% – that didn’t include the Nationals). The Greens are down a point to 9% and One Nation are steady on 8%. Essential’s monthly leadership ratings record Malcolm Turnbull up a point on approval to 38% and down three on disapproval to 46%, with Bill Shorten down one to 35% and down two to 42%, and Turnbull leading 41-27 to prime minister, unchanged on a month ago.

Other results related by The Guardian include 43% approval for a postal plebiscite on same-sex marriage, with 38% disapproving; 43% support for a parliamentary conscience vote, with 31% disapproving; 46% favouring a plebiscite in conjunction with the next election, with 34% disapproving; and 22% in favour of delaying a decision until after the next election, with 55% opposed. Forty-one per cent approved of Labor’s propose to impose a 30% tax rate on distributions from discretionary trusts, with 30% opposed. On Labor’s plans to overhaul the Fair Work Act, 39% rated that the existing system favoured employers compared with 12% for employees, and 29% who believed the interests of the two were balanced.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. vic,

    Seriously?

    If crime figures wanted to speak with Politicians there are plenty of alternative ways to meet/communicate which don’t involve sharing a meal at a public restaurant.

    As i posted earlier, my view at this stage is that Guy was let down by his minders who should have vetted the guest list of attendees.

    Guy has been embarrassed, no doubt and the Sun’s front page today is a cracker.

    But, let’s see what if anything else emerges from Lobsterbelly!

  2. GG

    As I have said previously, the fed and state libs have a long association with this family. This is not the first time they have dined together or donations made. It is on the record.
    No fricking excuses

  4. KayJay

    JOHN BOY @ #102 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 9:00 am

    where is BK’s morning roundup it NEVER shows for me.

    BK’s roundup is at 7:39 in one big post.

    I suggest you refresh your page and keep scrolling down until you find it.

    BLESS YOU

  5. YaThinkN: Just a suggestion…

    But have they considered not acting like bigots & saying bigoted things to avert being being called a bigot? twitter.com/JonathanLea10/…

    JonathanLea10: 55,000 signatures to be presented to Senate from Aus Christian Lobby opposing #SSM – ppl worried about being called ‘bigots’ @channeltennews pic.twitter.com/pTJMFPxqZ9

    https://twitter.com/jonathanlea10/status/894705263701250049

  7. So if I’m up to date with the process.

    The Libs committed to putting the plebiscite forward in the senate (and said it would be this week).

    If the Senate blocks it, they will progress a postal plebiscite, which they have totes legit legal advice in support of (it’s just that it’s written on some golden tablets and you need a special stone to read it and they were told not to share the stone).

    And if the court blocks that, then _____________

    And the blank is to be filled in at a branch stacked combined party room meeting this morning? Which would presumably start at what, 10:30?

  9. Do the Libs comprehend the enormous size of the task in having a voluntary postal plebiscite?

    The http://www.aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to_vote/Enrolment_stats/ says there were 15,882,788 Australians enrolled to vote (plus another 810,904 eligible but not enrolled) as at 30 June this year.

    Is the AEC supposed to advertise to ensure people are enrolled, update address details, cater for people living overseas etc?

    That’s on top of the wording of the question, writing the “yes” and “no” cases, giving money to groups to campaign etc.

    And apparently the whole thing is supposed to happen in time to allow a parliamentary vote in December if “yes” wins.

    What a shambles.

  10. I’m glad to see that William has called the proposal a “postal plebiscite” rather than a “postal vote”. But so there is no confusion, shouldn’t it really be called a “postal questionaire?”

  14. This as reported by the Age

    However, sources with direct knowledge of the dinner have confirmed that Mr Guy’s office was informed that Mr Madafferi would be one of the guests.

  15. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    Yes he does say there may be big news. Could be reason why Trump is going at Blumenthal

    **************************

    Classic Trump – aim a bucket of vitriol at someone/something so repulsive that MSM gets distracted ……..

  16. victoria @ #162 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 10:10 am

    GG

    In other local news, which option for North East link do you believe will be ultimately chosen?

    My preference is the road down Greensborough Rd and then a tunnel under banyule flats coming out at the Bulleen Rd.
    connection to the Eastern Tollway.

    2nd would be around the back through the Green Wedge and warrandyte and linking up with the eastern freeway at Ringwood. but doubt the occupation of open space would ever get through the public consultation process.

  18. There probably won’t be money given to groups to campaign with the postal plebiscite. Allocating the funds to do so without Senate approval would be a long bow to draw.

  20. An important point Dr Bonham makes here

    Bill Shorten has said “A postal vote, which is non-binding – it is an opinion poll”. This is in fact a serious insult to opinion polling. A postal plebiscite would not be even that.

  22. citizen @ #159 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 10:06 am

    Do the Libs comprehend the enormous size of the task in having a voluntary postal plebiscite?

    The http://www.aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to_vote/Enrolment_stats/ says there were 15,882,788 Australians enrolled to vote (plus another 810,904 eligible but not enrolled) as at 30 June this year.

    Is the AEC supposed to advertise to ensure people are enrolled, update address details, cater for people living overseas etc?

    That’s on top of the wording of the question, writing the “yes” and “no” cases, giving money to groups to campaign etc.

    And apparently the whole thing is supposed to happen in time to allow a parliamentary vote in December if “yes” wins.

    What a shambles.

    Not really if you believe the purpose is simply buying time.

    A non credible debacle enhanced by a disastrous process is exactly the sort of outcome the proponents desired.

    I’d say the postal plebiscite is all about toppling Turnbull.

  25. [kevjohnno
    Guy being tough on crime – making them pay for dinner.    ]

    Is this covered under proceeds of crime legislation or is being an accessory the relevant clause?

  26. victoria @ #169 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 10:17 am

    GG

    I am.thinking same. Only thing I am unclear about is the army barracks.section

    The road will be widened to accommodate a new freeway. The current greensborough road will become a a service road like it is further up between Grimshaw st and Watsonia station.

    The land on the left hand side as you travel down Greensborough rd., will be assumed for the Freeway. This will include the Shell Servo and a pootion of the Army barracks.

  27. Robert’s name finally crops up

    One Nation Senator Malcolm Roberts’s eligibility to be in Parliament will be questioned in the Senate today, political correspondent Louise Yaxley.

    It’s not clear whether he renounced his British citizenship before he nominated. The Greens say they’ll support a motion to refer him to the High Court to clarify his eligibility.

    It is not clear if there will be enough support for that motion to pass.The Greens have earlier called on One Nation to do as other parties have and refer the case itself.

    Edit, appears they have the numbers

    Opposition legal affairs spokesman Mark Dreyfus says the election of One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts should be “cleared up”, indicating the opposition will support referring the Queenslander to the High Court. The Greens and Victorian independent Derryn Hinch have also said they would support a referral motion, meaning there is enough support in the Senate to refer him to the court and test his eligibility to sit in parliament.

  28. Sohar @ #7 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 6:39 am

    A good result for Labor, although the Guardian does it’s best to hide it in the depth of the article. In other survey findings, though, the electorate remain ignorant about issues like education funding and the real purpose of the plebiscite (mainly because of Australia’s appalling media).

    Another mad conspiracy theory. Sigh… 🙁

  32. [Greensborough Growler
    have labor referred their MHR from tasmania?    ]

    I don’t think there is anyone questioning her validity to sit.

    She produced documents that showed that she had lodged her renouncement and it had been received by the the British Home Office before the close of nominations.

  33. Why should the Libs change leader? They won’t do any better under anyone else, and Malcolm’s tame.

    …of course, as always, any leadership spill will be driven by nervous backbenchers, who are not known for rational decision making.

  34. zoomster @ #183 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 10:32 am

    Why should the Libs change leader? They won’t do any better under anyone else, and Malcolm’s tame.

    …of course, as always, any leadership spill will be driven by nervous backbenchers, who are not known for rational decision making.

    It will be the usual process.

    Something must be done.
    This is something.
    Therefore, it must be done!

  35. srpeatling: “It’s over: Liberal MPs cancel plans to cross floor on same-sex marriage”, reports @KnottMatthew. smh.com.au/federal-politi… via @smh

  36. Barney in Go Dau @ #182 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 10:32 am

    [Greensborough Growler
    have labor referred their MHR from tasmania?    ]

    I don’t think there is anyone questioning her validity to sit.

    She produced documents that showed that she had lodged her renouncement and it had been received by the the British Home Office before the close of nominations.

    The HC will look at when it was actually effected IMHO.

    Roberts also took steps (allegedly) before the election. However, his confirmation letter did not come through until December.

  37. victoria @ #26 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 7:48 am

    Morning all

    I can’t believe Matthew Guy would be stupid enough to socialise with a mafia boss. And a mafia boss he is. He was even the subject of a fourcorners report last year, and it is well known here in Melbourne.

    Just two organised crime gangs holding a summit.
    Maybe there was an offer to get the Libs out of their financial trouble by supplying a bit of ‘muscle’ to collect donations?

  38. antonbruckner11 @ #160 Tuesday, August 8th, 2017 – 10:09 am

    I’m glad to see that William has called the proposal a “postal plebiscite” rather than a “postal vote”. But so there is no confusion, shouldn’t it really be called a “postal questionaire?”

    But so there is no confusion shouldn’t it really be called the theft of millions of taxpayer’s dollars in order to create a colossal waste of fucking time and money for no better reason that to allow the Liberal Party and in particular it’s spineless excuse for a ‘leader’ (sic) to avoid joining the 21st century and reality for just a bit longer.

  40. @ GG – Roberts did not take steps to renounce his citizenship before the election.

    He sent an email asking to have his citizenship revoked.

    That is not a step in the revocation of citizenship.

  41. PS. I know these comments never get published but they need to be said.
    The metrics back me up. This site is dying a slow death.

  42. PhoenixRed

    The Trumpmodelling stuff and incriminating tapes have been doing the rounds for quite sometime. Rumour was the big WaPo story related to this and thru have copy of tape. Who knows. Time will tell

  44. @ P1 Being as the Greens vote has ‘fallen’ to 10% average in the two most recent polls, from 9.5% in the preceding polls by those pollsters, I am surprisingly not willing to describe that as ‘crumbling’

  46. P1
    Fascinating. The Greens vote is down from it’s usual 10% by as much as it was up yesterday. Today is clearly crumbling, yesterday was nothing. Is that level of congntive dissonance painful or is the universe truly as unjust as I fear ?

  47. Going by the reports I have read, he did more than that. But, as i said, I think he’s in trouble.

    The question for the Labor MHR is whether sending the application is sufficient to comply with the letter of the law.

    My understanding is notification that her application was processed did not occur till after the election.

    But, these are only my observations.

Comments are closed.

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