Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Some better numbers for the Prime Minister from Essential Research, on both voting intention and preferred Liberal leader.

As reported by The Guardian, the Coalition has picked up a point on Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average for the second week in a row, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 36%, Labor is down one to 36%, One Nation is up a point to 11% and the Greens are steady on 10% (UPDATE: No, actually it’s the Coalition steady on 38% and One Nation up one to 8% – the rest is okay). Further:

• On the question of who would be best to lead the Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull recorded 25%, up five since March; Julie Bishop 20%, down three; Tony Abbott 10%, unchanged; and 13% chose an unspecified “someone else” option. For Labor, Bill Shorten was on 20%, down one; Tanya Plibersek 13%, unchanged; Anthony Albanese 13%, up two; with someone else on 13%.

• Fifty-two per cent were of the view that economic inequality was worsening, with 26% saying it was stable and only 12% concurring with Scott Morrison’s suggestion that it was diminishing. No doubt relatedly, 82% supported forcing multinational companies to pay a minimum tax rate on their Australian earnings; 61% favoured a higher top-tier income tax rate; 71% a “Buffett rule” to force the wealthy to pay a minimum 30% tax rate; and 86% measures to inhibit the wealthy from minimising tax payments by sending funds offshore.

• Fifty-eight per cent expressed support for four-year terms, with only 24% opposed.

Another poll worth noting is a rare effort on voting intention in the Australian Capital Territory, conducted by ReachTEL for Anglicare and the Canberra Gambling Reform Alliance, which records Labor on 36.4% (down 2.0% since the 2016 election), the Liberals on 38.8% (up 2.1%) and the Greens on 13.3% (up 3.0%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,413 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Yes that PvO interview says everything the government needs to know about how the media is currently reporting on the government.

    My bet is nothing happens next week, the bill isn’t put before parliament.
    The government can then move onto easier issues like energy.

    Nikki Savva said in her column today, (paper copy article titled ‘Turnbull stuck in terrain of rocks and hard places”).

    “The timing was bad (for the SSM issue) coming as it did when the government was on the front foot on national security and limbering up to demolish Shorten’s plan to tax trusts.”

    I didn’t notice the limbering up must have been subtle.

  2. lizzie @ #1249 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 6:07 pm

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has called an emergency meeting of the Liberal Party to debate same-sex marriage, as the government grapples with options including a legally dubious postal vote “plebiscite”.

    I question the word “emergency”.

    Perhaps for the LNP same-sex marriage is an existential issue? Or perhaps it’s only that for our PM?

  3. http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/blogs/creatura-blog/2014/09/blue-banded-bee-a-native-beauty
    :large

    Blue-banded bees are one of a few native Australian bee species that perform a particular type of pollination known as ‘buzz pollination’. Also known as sonication, this type of pollination is really useful on crops such as tomatoes, blueberries, cranberries, kiwi fruit, eggplants and chilies, but the well-known and very common western honey bee (Apis mellifera), is incapable of performing this process. For this reason, the blue-banded bee is extremely valuable to Australian farmers.

  5. When are the media going to call this crap out?

    Mr Turnbull personally favours changing the law to allow same-sex marriage, but he is arguing the party needs to keep its promise to the electorate to hold a public vote, or plebiscite, first.

    It’s got nothing to do with promises to the electorate, as we know, and everything to do with internal Party dynamics.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-03/same-sex-marriage:-malcolm-turnbull-calls-special-meeting/8771886

  7. JR

    I didn’t notice the limbering up must have been subtle.

    Didn’t Scotty tell us Australia was becoming more equitable the day before figures came out that said the opposite.

    Maybe that’s what Sava calls ‘limbering up’.

  8. lizzie @ #1253 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 6:15 pm

    Blue-banded bees are one of a few native Australian bee species that perform a particular type of pollination known as ‘buzz pollination’. Also known as sonication, this type of pollination is really useful on crops such as tomatoes, blueberries, cranberries, kiwi fruit, eggplants and chilies, but the well-known and very common western honey bee (Apis mellifera), is incapable of performing this process. For this reason, the blue-banded bee is extremely valuable to Australian farmers.

    Thanks for this – we have these bees. I never knew they were native!

  9. Bill Shorten on ABC 7.30 tonight? Will the Lovely Liberal Leigh give easy full tosses on keg stump? Or go for the aggressive sledge?

    Which leads to me to the utter humiliation of Cricket Australia. After 10 months of grandstanding, they have capitulated worse than a Malcolm Turnbull ‘principle’. The management starting with Sutherland and the Board should do the honourable thing and resign.

  12. adrian

    The allegations follow an AUSTRAC investigation into the CBA’s use of intelligent deposit machines (IDMs) between November 2012 and September 2015.

    Are these ‘IDMs’ the fancy machine the Commonwealth Bank has in what passes as a branch these days?

  13. The Australian‏Verified account @australian · 11m11 minutes ago

     More

    Malcolm Turnbull is moving to shut down a partyroom revolt over same-sex marriage by using a secret ballot

  14. I admire Keating, his intellect and his wit. I can agree with much of his venom and disgust at the recipient and others the subject of his letter. But he was wrong about the privatisation and the benefits of that and the electricity ‘market’

  17. lizzie @ #1249 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 4:07 pm

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has called an emergency meeting of the Liberal Party to debate same-sex marriage, as the government grapples with options including a legally dubious postal vote “plebiscite”.

    I question the word “emergency”.

    The emergency is that Brian’s job is on the line.

  19. This article by the Australian Christian Lobby inadvertently tells us on which side of the political divide they reside:

    As I said to a group of Liberal University Students last year, we should never be afraid to confront wrong, admit wrong, and hang around with supposed ‘wrong-thinking’ people – those that think differently to us.

    The upshot? Don’t give up on the ALP or any other group who, in our view, are making wrong choices. Keep speaking the truth in love. Kindness will be remembered long after a debate has passed. Be encouraged, truth will ultimately prevail.

    http://www.acl.org.au/what_happened_at_this_year_s_alp_tasmanian_conference

  20. lizzie @ #1263 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 4:27 pm

    The Australian‏Verified account @australian · 11m11 minutes ago

     More

    Malcolm Turnbull is moving to shut down a partyroom revolt over same-sex marriage by using a secret ballot

    Just when you think the L/NP’s judgement can’t get any worse, they manage to throw more petrol on the fire. If a SSM vote were to get up, the tension created by not knowing which way everyone voted will result in more public fighting.

  22. The Australian‏Verified account @australian · 11m11 minutes ago

     More

    Malcolm Turnbull is moving to shut down a partyroom revolt over same-sex marriage by using a secret ballot

    No doubt he will tell the MPs to put their vote in the post and only vote if they feel like it.

  23. citizen

    Loved that ACL article for all its unintended irony – criticising others for a ‘my way or the highway’ approach!

  25. I thought the same CTar of Morrison’s attempted demolishment of Labor over trusts.

    BTW is demolishment a word or am I thinking of ‘extinguishment’?

  26. The CBA’s omissions / transgressions do not appear to have involved any union, Bill Shorten or any other Labor figure, so the Government isn’t too fussed. No need for a Royal Commission into banks.

  27. Barney in Go Dau @ #1274 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 6:55 pm

    [citizen

    The upshot? Don’t give up on the ALP or any other group who, in our view, are making wrong choices. Keep speaking the truth in love. Kindness will be remembered long after a debate has passed. Be encouraged, truth will ultimately prevail.

    http://www.acl.org.au/what_happened_at_this_year_s_alp_tasmanian_conference]

    Can someone please tell me how he defines “truth.”

    It’s not in my dictionary.

    Two thoughts on that. If that’s what ACL call love, no wonder they’re confused. And if truth will prevail at the end, then sure, knock yourself out and wait.

  28. BTW is demolishment a word or am I thinking of ‘extinguishment’?

    I’ve seen both, but I think they should be ‘demolition’ and ‘extinction’.

  29. Style points to watch for in Shorten’s interview on 730: Does Bill continue with his lower pitched speaking voice that he appeared to try out on Insiders? He seemed to be speaking about an octave lower than usual to try to convey gravitas. He also reined in bulging eyes and saying ‘wif’ for ‘with”. I don’t mean to trivialise these matters. Presentation is very important.

    But I don’t say for one moment these presentational issues are more important than the content issues. On that front, expect Leigh Sales to zero in a weakness Shorten has exposed himself to: advocating a non-binding vote on the Republic but opposed to the same on SSM. It was unnecessary and stupid. I invariably regard Abbott’s rantings as pure drivel but he made some valid points about where Australia would leave itself in between presumably voting in favour of a Republic, in principle, but in a non-binding fashion – and then finally getting to the difficult nub of the matter: which model to adopt.
    (I think extinguishment is a word as in the extinguishment of native title..)

  30. So Obied, McDonald and Tripodi get well deserved findings against them by the NSW ICAC but Sinodinos gets off because he can’t remember if he did it or not.

    FMD

  33. Unlike the republic question, SSM doesn’t require a change to the Constitution, and therefore doesn’t need an unnecessary and stupid plebiscite.
    You wif me on that ?

  34. mikehilliard @ #1282 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 7:24 pm

    He also reined in bulging eyes

    How do you manage that?

    I can’t say I have particularly noticed it with Bill, but I recall a woman appearing on TV with eyes that seemed to bulge on occasions. I think it was really caused by her opening her eyes very wide.
    So it that’s the case, just don’t use a facial expression that opens your eyes abnormally wide.

    Well that’s my theory.

  35. Alias, Shortens position on the republic is quite sensible. Unlike SSM which only requires a change
    to the Marriage Act by Parliament the republic requires a constitutional change. Given the difficulty of getting constitutional change it is sensible to try and set the broad parameters of the measure before the actual referendum.

    As I up stand it the Shorten proposal would involve a compulsory plebiscite that would presumably lead to a convention. I think there should two further questions in the plebiscite. Are you in favour of a president of an Australian with executive powers similar to the U.S or are you in favour of a President with non-executive powers similar to the Irish republic. Settling these issues prior to a referendum is more likely to gain the necessary constitutional majority at the referendum

  37. Vogon Poet.. yes i’m wif you (hohoho..) but the point you apparently fail to grasp is that Shorten’s proposed initial vote is not a binding referendum designed to change the Constitution. He proposed a second vote – this one a binding referendum with the capacity to change the Constitution – if and when an agreed model or models can be put forward.

  38. Abbott’s point, and I find myself uncomfortable beginning a sentence in that way, is that let’s say Australia votes “yes we want a Republic but we haven’t yet figured out exactly what form it would take” is that from that moment forward, the nation would be in this weird vacuum where we’ve effectively booted out Buckingham Palace but we haven’t done the very hard work of seeking to settle an agreed upon model for the Republic.

  39. alias

    That’s right – because the first vote isn’t about changing the Constitution, so it doesn’t need to be binding. And the question it will ask is not suited to a binding referendum vote, because it is asking for an opinion on a concept rather than agreement as to a form of wording.

  40. CTar1.. you’re quite right. Look at Najib in Malaysia, the late Soeharto in Indonesia and too many others to name. All undone by greedy wives who were always in charge anyway.

  41. No, it won’t be in a weird vacuum, because Buckingham Palace will remain in place until an actual referendum has been held.

  43. bemused

    I suppose so. I think my position is one of what the hell does any perceived physical attribute have anything to do with anything.

  45. Zoomster .. I hope you are right, but I would fear is a period where the nation is squabbling over the “right” model; perhaps descending into an unseemly brawl. And all the while we’ve officially declared ourselves almost but not quite a Republic. Seems to me problematic.

  47. Not in every case but let’s take Najib in Malaysia. Insiders are pretty clear about who has driven the breathtaking theft of state monies – in the billions of US dollars. And it’s not the prime minister.

  48. Alias
    Abbott’s point… is that from that moment forward, the nation would be in this weird vacuum…

    Say what? You mean like the “weird vacuum” Britain is in over Brexit? Tones was more than happy for the Motherland to vote itself into THAT particular vacuum.

    Policy vacuums are a fact of life in politics.

    As usual, Tony is just making a media tart of himself.

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