Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Some better numbers for the Prime Minister from Essential Research, on both voting intention and preferred Liberal leader.

As reported by The Guardian, the Coalition has picked up a point on Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average for the second week in a row, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 36%, Labor is down one to 36%, One Nation is up a point to 11% and the Greens are steady on 10% (UPDATE: No, actually it’s the Coalition steady on 38% and One Nation up one to 8% – the rest is okay). Further:

• On the question of who would be best to lead the Liberal Party, Malcolm Turnbull recorded 25%, up five since March; Julie Bishop 20%, down three; Tony Abbott 10%, unchanged; and 13% chose an unspecified “someone else” option. For Labor, Bill Shorten was on 20%, down one; Tanya Plibersek 13%, unchanged; Anthony Albanese 13%, up two; with someone else on 13%.

• Fifty-two per cent were of the view that economic inequality was worsening, with 26% saying it was stable and only 12% concurring with Scott Morrison’s suggestion that it was diminishing. No doubt relatedly, 82% supported forcing multinational companies to pay a minimum tax rate on their Australian earnings; 61% favoured a higher top-tier income tax rate; 71% a “Buffett rule” to force the wealthy to pay a minimum 30% tax rate; and 86% measures to inhibit the wealthy from minimising tax payments by sending funds offshore.

• Fifty-eight per cent expressed support for four-year terms, with only 24% opposed.

Another poll worth noting is a rare effort on voting intention in the Australian Capital Territory, conducted by ReachTEL for Anglicare and the Canberra Gambling Reform Alliance, which records Labor on 36.4% (down 2.0% since the 2016 election), the Liberals on 38.8% (up 2.1%) and the Greens on 13.3% (up 3.0%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,413 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. @ Barney – indeed, if it was the workers’ fault, then why improve the systems? And if the systems weren’t fit for purpose, then can you really blame the workers?

  4. briefly @ #1148 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 12:04 pm

    grimace
    I was having flick through yesterday’s dead tree edition of the West (today’s doesn’t seem to have turned up) and it had an itinerary for the entire cabinet for their week in WA. Making the assumption that the itinerary has been reported correctly, the cabinet have not attended a single event in a Labor held seat in WA.

    The LNP are in retreat…trying to fortify their patches….won’t help them much. They will be overrun. 🙂

    The internal LNP polling must be catastrophic if they are sandbagging this far out from the next election.

  7. CTar1 @ #1175 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 1:27 pm

    Malcolm Turnbull dismisses WA GST anger as existing in a ‘parallel universe’.

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has accused the media of living in a “parallel universe” in response to suggestions West Australians are angry at him and his Government over the state’s low GST share.

    Mr Turnbull made the comment before departing Perth after a lengthy visit dominated by questions about WA’s GST share and his Government’s response to it.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-03/snipes-turn-to-smiles-as-pm-and-wa-premier-gst-war/8770868

    ‘Before departing’ must mean as close to flight out time as possible!

    I think Bolt and others are right, Turnbull is an Labor sleeper agent within the L/NP. He’s writing our attack ads for us.

  9. Grimace, Turnbull slso needs to be seen to helping out his sitting mps. They hold his leadership in their hands. He has to give them what he has to give…

  11. Turnbull is kidding himself if he thinks the GST is not an issue in WA. All by itself it exemplifies Liberal incompetence and indifference.

    It could cost them 4-5 sests.

  13. The WA Government was already angry about its GST share, which is much lower on a per capita basis than any other state, before finding out revised population estimates could cost it another $2 billion in lost GST revenue over four years.

    But the Prime Minister rejected suggestions people were “angry or furious” at him over the issue, saying his experience from his time in WA did not convey that message.

    “I have met with hundreds of West Australians this week … and the reception I have had could not have been warmer, more positive or more welcoming,” Mr Turnbull told ABC Perth.
    “It is a complete parallel universe between what the media is saying and what the people I am meeting in the real world is what people are saying to me.”

    Someone needs to tell Brian that only talking to hand picked and well briefed voters will deliver good news, but that news will be misleading and lull him into a false sense of security.

    If Brian really wants the opinions of voters he should so an unscripted town hall in front of 1,000+ voters who have not been hand picked, well briefed and/or be members of the L/NP, and he should stay on the stage until everyone who has a question has asked it.

    He should also “broadcast” that town hall on Facebook Live just like Bill Shorten does. I suspect we won’t get very far into that town hall before the REAL Malcolm makes an appearance and his security will need to protect some unsuspecting voter from him.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-03/snipes-turn-to-smiles-as-pm-and-wa-premier-gst-war/8770868

  14. Laurie Oakes is retiring? He’s been around for as long as I’ve paid any attention to politics (late 60s), every election night. Haven’t seen as much of him since he went behind the Telegraph pay wall, but he’ll be missed.

  19. Is The Rapture the one where you need a bunker, nonperishable food, and a pile of guns for turning other people and meat-creatures into perishable food?

  20. [Sir Pajama Pudding of Lake Disappointment
    … The Rapture. If you want to find out how loopy Trump’s religious base are, visit these sites:    ]

    No, thanks.

  26. “It is a complete parallel universe between what the media is saying and what the people I am meeting in the real world is what people are saying to me.”

    Brian’s problem is that he has this idea that he just has to say something, anything, and he will be taken at face value and believed.

  28. Barney in Go Dau @ #1215 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 4:59 pm

    Rebuttal of an advertisement placed place in today’s Herald Sun by some Bishops against Assisted Dying legislation.

    I think much of it highlights why we have a separation of Church and State.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/03/seven-fallacies-in-victorian-bishops-arguments-against-assisted-dying

    Thank you for the link! I’ve not seen it expressed like this before but choosing how you want to die is not the same as choosing between life and death. Well put. The bishops concerned should be deeply ashamed to be promoting death by torture.

  35. Swamprat re
    “Under UK rules to ensure public monies are channeled to private companies, both the “New” Labour Blairites and Tory Governments made it illegal for any UK public entity to bid for rail franchises in the UK.”

    This is also what is happening with the NSW bus services. State Transit was not allowed to tender in Newcastle and State Transit is not allowed to tender for Region 6 in Sydney.
    Newcastle bus drivers are being underpaid by their new private overlords.
    And pretty obviously once all the services are privately run all the bs about late running will mysteriously disappear.

  38. Seems One Nation is really an offshoot of LNP, blame everyone but themselves.

    “In the list of excuses given by One Nation staff to the ECQ, notable examples include computer problems and wild weather.”.

  39. Has anyone told the right in the government that if passed SSM would be optional, like for people with an attraction for others of the same sex. One explanation for their behaviour is they think it will be compulsory.

    If the partyroom meeting is on Monday does that mean it will go for another 7 hours?

  40. AR @5:12PM
    “Is The Rapture the one where you need a bunker, nonperishable food, and a pile of guns for turning other people and meat-creatures into perishable food?”

    Only if you’re left behind, which you will be if you haven’t been saved (not a Christian of the right brand). Then you have to convert otherwise you end up in the Lake of Fire at the end of the 7 year Tribulation.

  41. I think it’s interesting that this week it was announced that Andrew Denton had been diagnosed with advanced heart disease.

    As many would know, Denton is a prominent campaigner for Assisted Dying.

    Has he called for the right to terminate his life now.

    No, he will fight the disease by having major surgery in hope of beating it and then living a much longer life.

    This is not about taking life.

    It’s about giving a choice to people when living is no longer viable and death is inevitable.

  44. One explanation for their behaviour is they think it will be compulsory.

    Wouldn’t make any difference. Right winger believe that the Government should regulate relationships but not the economy.

  46. BiDG

    It’s about giving a choice to people when living is no longer viable and death is inevitable.

    Yes. For Denton there is curative treatment available.

    For those with terminal illnesses only palliative treatment is available of which assisted dying is one option.

  48. Barney in Go Dau @ #1220 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 3:15 pm

    [Sir Pajama Pudding of Lake Disappointment
    … The Rapture. If you want to find out how loopy Trump’s religious base are, visit these sites:    ]

    No, thanks.

    shellbell @ #1242 Thursday, August 3rd, 2017 – 3:53 pm

    On the occasion of John Robertson’s departure from NSW politics, a reminder on how to write a letter

    http://australianpolitics.com/2008/10/27/keating-letter-to-john-robertson.html

    Gee Paul, tell everyone what you really think why don’t you?

  49. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has called an emergency meeting of the Liberal Party to debate same-sex marriage, as the government grapples with options including a legally dubious postal vote “plebiscite”.

    I question the word “emergency”.

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