BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

An improvement in the Coalition’s still weak position on the poll aggregate, and a possible first sign of the Greens paying for their recent turmoil.

A bumper crop of three new polls this week has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to revert to type after blowing out in Labor’s favour for a couple of weeks. The Coalition had a particularly strong result in the weekly Essential Research sample, which elicited a one-point movement on its fortnight rolling average. The Coalition has gained three on the seat projection – one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. The Greens have taken a fairly solid knock on the primary vote, which certainly seems intuitively reasonable. However, a two-point drop from YouGov has had something to do with that, and this may for all I know reflect methodological fine-tuning. Newspoll has furnished a new set of data for leadership ratings, which hasn’t yielded anything too dramatic. YouGov also had approval ratings for the two leaders, but I gather they won’t be making a habit of this, so it hasn’t been included.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,501 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 31
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  1. Trog

    Just like I was wrong about Trump being a treasonous dirt bag, I could also be wrong re Sanders……………

  2. Richard Goyder is not the CEO of Coles and therefore was not the one who made the comments about people making poor food choices in the article Guytaur posted.

  3. Restaurants cafes and hairdressers have lodged applications in the FWC today to have penalty rates reduced in line with the earlier FWC decision.

    So much for those commentators and the MSM who brushed aside claims by unions and labor that the FWC had opened the gates to broader claims from business.

    Bill Shorten, Sally McManus and the union movement will apply huge pressure on Turnbull and the government. So much for the government line on inequality.

    This will be a big issue and from a political perspective Sjorten has once again shown impeccable timing.

    Cheers.

  4. shellbell
    Ham steak with a pineapple ring on top did not take long to make. Junket for dessert took a little longer.

    Did you melt a thick slice of cheddar on top?

    Yum!!!!

  5. Barney in Go Dau @ #196 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:00 pm

    bemused
    Barney in Go Dau @ #164 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 11:39 am

    The downside of fresh food is it often requires cooking, a skill we seem to be losing.

    Cooking is not really hard. Sure, if you want to cook complex dishes it gets harder, but a simple meat and 3 vegs is not hard and neither are many other simple meals. And what’s wrong with salads?

    Yeah,

    but is that what people have forgotten?

    As ‘fess points out with her cooking class example.

    I’d imagine one of the positive reactions was, “That’s not hard.”

    When placed into a situation where I had to pick up my long lost cooking skills, I just went out and bought a couple of cheap cook books specialising in simple stuff. One I call had the title, IIRC, The Bachelors Black and White Cookbook. Yes, even a man could master the contents.

    OTOH, I just love Charmaine Solomon’s ‘Complete Asian Cookbook’ and a lot of the dishes in it are not at all difficult.

  6. The point on cheap food choices is that poor people don’t get the choices rich people do. Its not just what we can afford to eat. Its what’s available at the price that is convenient to get to.

    There are suburbs where the only fast food choice is McDonald’s or KFC.

    This is the problem. Every person wants a break from cooking themselves. No matter the form it takes. However for many of these people the travel cost in time and money to get to a healthy eating out place is just not practical.

  7. a r

    …compared to my own children and their peers, who are Uni students and appear to enjoy cooking from scratch. If they do do fast food (and they do) they don’t go to Maccas but buy pizzas or similar.

  8. Victoria

    Trog

    Just like I was wrong about Trump being a treasonous dirt bag, I could also be wrong re Sanders……………

    I know that Sanders offends those wonderfully “middle of the road” corporate lackeys in the Dem party – probably the Labor Party right as well, but you are going to need something more substantive than his sanctions vote to knock him down.

  9. guytaur

    Initial purchase price compared with life of item. My stove died recently, but it’s over 30 years old. In its lifetime, I have gone through at least 6 microwaves (although, curiously, my grandmother’s microwave, bought in the seventies, is still working!)

  10. Presumably Albo fixed any dual citizenship issues even if he didn’t know who his father was until late in the piece.

  11. Just a note before I defrost my bread rolls and add margarine, sliced beef, tomato, lettuce, cheese, cucumber.

    Musrum posted a test yesterday and may be working on CCCP and STFU.

    The edit function is lost if using AR’s addon.

  12. bemused

    Yeah,
    When I moved to my current location I finally had access to a kitchen. The first time since managing a pub in the UK.

    I quickly set it up properly and now can cook most things I want to.

    The internet is fantastic these days for cooking. If I want to try something new I just search for it, peruse the basic technique and go for it.

  13. zoomster

    It can still be easier for poor people to buy microwaves than ovens. Its also cheaper on the power bills.

    Its not a big point on the cost front. I am in agreement with you its about culture. Its what we accept as part of our society. If you are rich you get a restaurant. If you are not you get fast food as your eating out option.

  14. Re cooking: A kangaroo patty, dry fried, plus 5 veg (steamed) being sw potato, carrot, broccoli, frozen beans, frozen peas/corn, takes me 12 minutes from fridge to plate. Total cost, less than $2.50 per person. Meets all health guidelines.

    Meat can be sliced chicken breast with garlic and ginger, or lamb shoulder ‘grilling’ chops, or a chunk of salmon from Aldi, which raises cost a little.

    Although I am by no means poor, my family was very much so when I was young, and old habits, well learned, die hard.

  15. Doyley

    [from a political perspective Sjorten has once again shown impeccable timing.]

    It must be the Swede in him.

    🙂

  16. zoomster @ #214 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:14 pm

    guytaur

    Initial purchase price compared with life of item. My stove died recently, but it’s over 30 years old. In its lifetime, I have gone through at least 6 microwaves (although, curiously, my grandmother’s microwave, bought in the seventies, is still working!)

    I have had a microwave for nearly thirty years and still going strong. Never had one fail permanently. The present one did stop working and all I did was take the back off, have a look inside vacuum out a bit of dust, wriggle a couple of wires, put the back on and away it went.

    Not recommended unless you have a bit of electrical knowledge sufficient to be aware of the hazards.

  17. Player One @ #209 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:11 pm

    bemused @ #196 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:02 pm

    Player One @ #184 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 11:53 am

    Your comment was just your typical flippant stupidity with no factual basis.

    It was a joke, you old fool. Is it any wonder so many people here despise you?

    I should have put it in my previous comment, but there is probably no-one on PB whose opinions I have much respect for who despises me. There is also no-one on PB who I despise.

    But I do note the unceasing efforts of you and one or two others to foster hatred.

    It really does say more about you than me.

  18. P1, the single best response to the sledging is to ignore it. The bile does not deserve any attention from any of us at all. Surely, it is put out there in the first place in order to elicit a reaction. The best reward for this is deprivation.

  19. Victoria

    Just expect to be disappointed by Mr Sanders. Don’t say you weren’t warned

    Sounds like a something a fortune teller might come up with.
    If you can’t back your assertions with facts, then don’t bother.

  20. bemused @ #216 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:18 pm

    Strange, I play the comment, you play the man, and I get accused of abuse.

    So you believe “Your comment was just your typical flippant stupidity with no factual basis. ” playing the comment, do you?

    You really are completely unaware of just how objectionable you are, aren’t you?

  21. Barney in Go Dau @ #219 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:19 pm

    bemused

    Yeah,
    When I moved to my current location I finally had access to a kitchen. The first time since managing a pub in the UK.

    I quickly set it up properly and now can cook most things I want to.

    The internet is fantastic these days for cooking. If I want to try something new I just search for it, peruse the basic technique and go for it.

    Certainly agree about the internet. My wife and I use it to find recipes to try. Always been able to find whatever we sought.

  22. briefly @ #225 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:26 pm

    P1, the single best response to the sledging is to ignore it. The bile does not deserve any attention from any of us at all. Surely, it is put out there in the first place in order to elicit a reaction. The best reward for this is deprivation.

    Yes, I know. It is just that I have been protected so long by STFU that it was a bit of a shock to find that bemused is still obsessed with me. It is creepy.

  23. bemused @ #205 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:08 pm

    OTOH, I just love Charmaine Solomon’s ‘Complete Asian Cookbook’ and a lot of the dishes in it are not at all difficult.

    Have that, but use Charmaine’s Complete Curry Cookbook usually. (for the Sri Lankan curries mostly, but the Lamb Kofta Curry is also brilliant).

    My wife wanted to buy a second copy for a gift, but it was out of print. Luckily Charmaine still had some in her garage at Concord and the missus was able to get in contact and visit her to buy a copy. Gave her huge bragging rights amongst her Lankan relos.

  24. Player One

    You really are completely unaware of just how objectionable you are, aren’t you?

    P1, you can be absolutely certain that it is NOT unaware. This is very well-practiced trollery. I’ve been observing it for years.

  25. Player One @ #229 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:26 pm

    bemused @ #216 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:18 pm

    Strange, I play the comment, you play the man, and I get accused of abuse.

    So you believe “Your comment was just your typical flippant stupidity with no factual basis. ” playing the comment, do you?

    You really are completely unaware of just how objectionable you are, aren’t you?

    What you quote makes my point eloquently.
    “your comment”, not “you”.

    I am aware of the continuous efforts of you and a few others to demonise me, particularly if I disagree with anything you say.

    Get over it.

  26. As I brought up the Coles CEO comment I would remind all here about the point.

    Its about inequality.

    If people are paid well they do not make poor choices. They are more likely to travel. They are more likely to eat at restaurants. They are more likely to avoid Mc Donald’s and the like and buy an Asian meal instead.

    Also if a two income household is well paid jobs its more likely they will organise things so someone has the time to cook at home most days.

    So if the CEO of Wesfarmers or Coles is complaining about the choices for poor people this is a canary in the coal mine statement about how people should be better paid.

  27. ratsak, My kids went to school with Charmaine’s grandkids. The Solomon birthday parties were culinary wonders. We lived in McKenzie St.

  28. Player One
    briefly @ #225 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:26 pm

    P1, the single best response to the sledging is to ignore it. The bile does not deserve any attention from any of us at all. Surely, it is put out there in the first place in order to elicit a reaction. The best reward for this is deprivation.

    Yes, I know. It is just that I have been protected so long by STFU that it was a bit of a shock to find that bemused is still obsessed with me. It is creepy.

    The sledging is insidious, no doubt. But the upside is that every time you make a point of ignoring the provocation, it must hurt. The provocation is intended to create domination of the chat. It is a means to an end. The best way to disrupt that is to do nothing at all.

  29. zoomster @ #212 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:14 pm

    guytaur

    Initial purchase price compared with life of item. My stove died recently, but it’s over 30 years old. In its lifetime, I have gone through at least 6 microwaves (although, curiously, my grandmother’s microwave, bought in the seventies, is still working!)

    I sold my house back in March. I had originally bought it in 92. The old Sanyo microwave that had come with the house (built into a wall cavity) died just a few months before I sold. So it was at least 25 years old and who knows how much older. Worked like a charm until the day it died too. Very good piece of kit.

  30. Player One @ #232 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:28 pm

    briefly @ #225 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:26 pm

    P1, the single best response to the sledging is to ignore it. The bile does not deserve any attention from any of us at all. Surely, it is put out there in the first place in order to elicit a reaction. The best reward for this is deprivation.

    Yes, I know. It is just that I have been protected so long by STFU that it was a bit of a shock to find that bemused is still obsessed with me. It is creepy.

    You and Confessions seem to be obsessed with me and try to project your obsessions back to me.

    Frankly, I couldn’t care less about either of you but I do feel free to comment on anything you or anyone else comments on.

    Get used to it. It’s called debate or discussion. It’s about ideas and opinions.

  31. Guytaur:

    There was research done some years ago that mapped the locations of fast food outlets like Maccas and KFC. The researchers found these outlets were located in low socioeconomic areas than in the wealthier suburbs.

  32. ratsak @ #233 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:29 pm

    bemused @ #205 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:08 pm

    OTOH, I just love Charmaine Solomon’s ‘Complete Asian Cookbook’ and a lot of the dishes in it are not at all difficult.

    Have that, but use Charmaine’s Complete Curry Cookbook usually. (for the Sri Lankan curries mostly, but the Lamb Kofta Curry is also brilliant).

    My wife wanted to buy a second copy for a gift, but it was out of print. Luckily Charmaine still had some in her garage at Concord and the missus was able to get in contact and visit her to buy a copy. Gave her huge bragging rights amongst her Lankan relos.

    I bought mine way back in the 1980’s. I am sorry I didn’t buy the hard cover version as the soft cover version is in danger of falling apart. Has she got any hard cover versions in her garage? 😀

  33. Victoria

    Just like the musings on Trump was fortune telling

    It required zero prescience to predict what Trump would be like. The only people who missed that were the deluded.
    Sanders on the other hand has delivered consistent public policy for decades.

  34. I will contribute $100 to the favorite charity of anyone who develops a replacement for STFU so that this forum can be a pleasant place to visit again.

  35. briefly @ #234 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:30 pm

    Player One

    You really are completely unaware of just how objectionable you are, aren’t you?

    P1, you can be absolutely certain that it is NOT unaware. This is very well-practiced trollery. I’ve been observing it for years.

    Looks like you, P1 and Confessions have your own little echo chamber.

    And by the way, I have never hidden the fact I am male.

  36. Bemused, What’s 10 km NNE of Killcare? You have virtually nil self awareness. Your first reaction is always nasty ridicule. You are, at bottom, an obnoxious person. That’s what we all object to. You are, like Trump, too old and set in your ways to learn. You will just have to live with the odium you habitually and instinctively arouse.

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