BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

An improvement in the Coalition’s still weak position on the poll aggregate, and a possible first sign of the Greens paying for their recent turmoil.

A bumper crop of three new polls this week has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to revert to type after blowing out in Labor’s favour for a couple of weeks. The Coalition had a particularly strong result in the weekly Essential Research sample, which elicited a one-point movement on its fortnight rolling average. The Coalition has gained three on the seat projection – one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. The Greens have taken a fairly solid knock on the primary vote, which certainly seems intuitively reasonable. However, a two-point drop from YouGov has had something to do with that, and this may for all I know reflect methodological fine-tuning. Newspoll has furnished a new set of data for leadership ratings, which hasn’t yielded anything too dramatic. YouGov also had approval ratings for the two leaders, but I gather they won’t be making a habit of this, so it hasn’t been included.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,501 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  3. Yabba88 @ #252 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:41 pm

    Bemused, What’s 10 km NNE of Killcare? You have virtually nil self awareness. Your first reaction is always nasty ridicule. You are, at bottom, an obnoxious person. That’s what we all object to. You are, like Trump, too old and set in your ways to learn. You will just have to live with the odium you habitually and instinctively arouse.

    Fair dinkum Yabba, when are you going to get over that error I made and apologised for?

  4. All I will say on this matter is that if you have a problem with someone here, just ignore them (until a new STFU is around). Thats a better option than throwing abuse.

  5. bemused @ #224 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:26 pm

    Player One @ #209 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:11 pm

    bemused @ #196 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:02 pm

    Player One @ #184 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 11:53 am

    Your comment was just your typical flippant stupidity with no factual basis.

    It was a joke, you old fool. Is it any wonder so many people here despise you?

    I should have put it in my previous comment, but there is probably no-one on PB whose opinions I have much respect for who despises me. There is also no-one on PB who I despise.

    But I do note the unceasing efforts of you and one or two others to foster hatred.

    It really does say more about you than me.

    Tedious in the extreme, but I do note that as usual you started the nastiness, then when someone responds, you play the victim.

    Rinse, repeat ad nauseam.

  6. Our Slow Cooker gets a real workout here – particularly in winter.

    Put all the goodies in and let it do its thing.

    Very tasty, nutritional, convenient and economical.

  10. Since we are on the topic of food, when did brocolinni become a thing?

    Plus I bought some purple brussel sprouts from Aldi the other day.

    Both wonderfully delicious in combination with stone ground artisan kale seeds, infused with a touch of central ranges truffle oil.

  12. Bemused, again you simply demonstrate that you are incapable of getting it. I never, at any stage, objected to your error. We all make them.

    You responded, in a totally uncalled for manner, to a friendly comment by me, to another poster, by ridiculing me to that other poster, using pig ignorant pseudo ‘facts’ which you pulled out of your arse. Like Trump.

  13. Barney in Go Dau
    Roberts is feeling the heat and his office is threatening journalists.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-28/malcolm-roberts-office-threatens-journalist/8751884

    I notice at the end of the article the ABC makes the same mistake as a previous article elsewhere.

    If Senator Roberts was eventually found to be ineligible, the most likely replacement would be One Nation candidate Fraser Anning.

    But Mr Anning faces bankruptcy proceedings in the Federal court — another cause for disqualification from office.

    If Mr Anning was also ruled ineligible, the next candidate would be Judy Smith — Pauline Hanson’s sister.

    No, bankruptcy would not make Anning ineligible at the time of nominations and the election.

  14. Trog

    Next you will be telling me that I am wrong to assert that Julian Assange is a bona fide tool for theKremlin. Lol!!

  15. Kezza2

    I don’t know re family situation of Mal Washer. But I am liking the idea that he is ones medical practitioner on board with medical cannabis

  16. Coming back after an absence I find the blog goes crazy and I’ve ended up reading the same posts about three times, in varying orders. Can’t understand why.

  19. Yabba88 @ #264 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 12:51 pm

    Bemused, again you simply demonstrate that you are incapable of getting it. I never, at any stage, objected to your error. We all make them.

    You responded, in a totally uncalled for manner, to a friendly comment by me, to another poster, by ridiculing me to that other poster, using pig ignorant pseudo ‘facts’ which you pulled out of your arse. Like Trump.

    So what can I do for you to get over one brief conversation?
    I thought I had spotted a minor error in your directions. that I thought had some humour potential, and ended up exposing my own ignorance on your local geography. So the joke was on me.

    Please, have a good laugh at my error and move on.

  20. adrian

    All my life I have cooked from raw rather than processed food, and had a rule that everyday meals must never take longer than 20 mins to prepare. (The 20 mins could be hours away for a casserole). I find the quick foods from supermarkets too salty, or tasteless and always full of additives.

    I also loved trying new veg and have lately discovered different flours. Coconut flour, anyone?

  25. Adrian:

    I prefer the taste of broccolini over broccoli so always buy it. I find it lasts longer in the fridge too.

  26. http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/labor-mp-khalil-eideh-denied-entry-to-the-us-20170728-gxkjtd.html

    A Victorian Labor MP has been denied entry to the US while travelling on official parliamentary business.

    Khalil Eideh​, who was born in Lebanon and identifies as Muslim, was barred from boarding a flight to Denver while trying to leave from Vancouver, Canada.

    He is travelling with a cross-party group MPs who are studying drug policy and heroin injecting rooms throughout Europe and North America.

    Victorian Sex Party MP Fiona Patten, who is part of the delegation, said she was devastated.

  27. Well, now we know why Sean Spicer quit over Anthony Scaramucci By Bill Palmer

    I’ll just go ahead and say it: I was wrong. I always just assumed Sean Spicer was an idiot. I looked at his bumbling nature, his abject incompetence, his inability to use words in a sentence that belong together, and his historically failed tenure at White House Press Secretary, and I took it as a sign that the guy was a dummy and a loser. But now I know Sean Spicer is a genius.

    The minute Donald Trump hired Anthony Scaramucci to be the new White House Communications Director, it prompted Sean Spicer’s immediate resignation. He knew. We’re just figuring it out now, because we’re not that bright. It took the brilliant Sean Spicer all of twelve seconds.

  29. J_C_Campbell: Senior Victorian Liberals say there is growing concern Chisholm MP Julia Banks has a Section 44 problem. #auspol

  30. Bemused. Try to learn. Try to understand that you are nowhere near the smartest, or most knowledgeable contributor to this blog. Try, very hard, to go easy on the ridicule (unless of course, the butt of that ridicule is the Roman Paedophile Protection Society), because you often only succeed in making yourself appear ridiculous. Before posting, reread, take a deep breath, think, and when sure, take another deep breath, think again, and if absolutely certain that you are not being nasty, press Post Comment.

  31. Rob_Stott: Everyone investigating a Victorian MP’s citizenship status I guess you could say there’s been a… run on the Banks

  32. PhoenixRed:

    It was mooted at the time of Spicer’s resignation that he was quitting before he was sacked by Scaramucci.

  33. BevanShields: Liberals seem to concede the government would lose a byelection in Chisolm, which was held by Labor before the last election #auspol

  35. The New York Times
    19 mins ·
    The blunt words of Donald J. Trump and Anthony Scaramucci, his new communications director, can sometimes sound like a cross between “Goodfellas” and “The Wolf of Wall Street.”
    Read more: http://nyti.ms/2u3FC41

  36. I have just started (this morning) reading “American Psycho” and found myself absolutely detesting the inward looking self description of the character central to the story.
    The description of the minute details of shaving, the almost subatomic (I have finished reading “Genius” – about Richard Feynman) description of the shampoo, the lotions, the socks, the shoes, the counting of the number of “bums” encountered – and so on.

    Where was I Cynthia? Oh yes. What a wanker and detestable swine (apologies to pigs) I thought, I can’t continue reading this drive.

    And then. Monsieur Google to the rescue. The book is about an investment banker (we know about those type of people, do we not) by day and serial killer by night.

    I now have the movie version and am searching for subtitles.

    There may be handy hints for we Jekyll and Hyde personalities although, in truth, I don’t really want to kill anybody.

    Toodle OO.

    ☮ ✌ ☕ Ƹ̴Ӂ̴Ʒ

  37. Guytaur:

    Julia Banks the first HoR member to be caught up in Section 44?

    Or is that just fake news twitter chatter?

  41. vic

    Thanks for the reply.

    Mal Washer is a descendant of two families, the Armstrongs and the Mews, who came out to WA in the late 1820s/early 1830s.

    One of my forebears, a doctor too, tried to make a go of it in WA about the same time, and lost everything. Had to come skulking back to Victoria to get more funds from his father. He married Mary McKillop’s first cousin, Margaret Cameron, and then married Barbara Baynton; didn’t have any surviving children, so Babs got the family fortune.

    Also, the Henty’s tried to make a go of it in WA, but gave up (thought it was unsuitable) and illegally landed in the Portland area of Victoria – and that’s how Victoria got started (from a European point of view).

    Yes, regarding Mal Washer, he’s a very unusual Lib, isn’t he? I’m not surprised he’s an advocate for medical cannabis.

  42. Yabba88 @ #282 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 1:10 pm

    Bemused. Try to learn. Try to understand that you are nowhere near the smartest, or most knowledgeable contributor to this blog. Try, very hard, to go easy on the ridicule (unless of course, the butt of that ridicule is the Roman Paedophile Protection Society), because you often only succeed in making yourself appear ridiculous. Before posting, reread, take a deep breath, think, and when sure, take another deep breath, think again, and if absolutely certain that you are not being nasty, press Post Comment.

    I know I am not the smartest and probably not the most knowledgeable contributor outside some special areas.
    If I get something wrong, I can laugh at my mistake and enjoy any unintended humour.

  43. confessions
    The blunt words of Donald J. Trump and Anthony Scaramucci, his new communications director, can sometimes sound like a cross between “Goodfellas” and “The Wolf of Wall Street.”

    *********************************************************

    Now the American voters have elected the closest thing to an actual mafia godfather into office: a brutal billionaire with a checkered past who, to mention only one attribute he shares with a mafia godfather, hides his tax record in his vault. He seems like a gangster boss straight out of a Martin Scorsese film: vulgar, ruthless, dishonest, thin-skinned. He has already shown incredible penchant for revenge, and huge eagerness for mafia-style retaliation.

    https://www.opendemocracy.net/north-africa-west-asia/amir-ahmadi-arian/mafia-principle-and-godfather-trump

  45. She has Greek heritage according to Wiki. How serendipitous that it was only the other day Zoomster or whoever was using Greece as an eg when pointing out Waters mistake.

  47. lizzie and confessions:

    I was being flippant, but you are right, brocollini is great, just lightly steamed with a bit of sesame oil and pepper.

    I also love a good steak, but those ghastly marinated concoctions that both butchers and supermarkets seem to think that consumers want, are the pits.

  49. I have never really appreciated Sue Boyce before, but I must apologise to her.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/07/28/failing-to-take-the-lead-on-renewables-has-hurt-the-australian-economy/

    In addition to taking the courageous walk across the chamber, Boyce — a successful businesswoman before politics — gave an interesting speech on her motives. She told the Senate:

    ““My own background is as a manufacturer. In that sphere, I know the benefits of early adoption. I would just like to point out to the Senate that it was the Shergold task force, commissioned by the Howard government, who said, long before we got to this place, that Australia should not wait until a genuinely global agreement has been negotiated, because there are benefits which outweigh the costs in early adoption by Australia of an appropriate emissions constraint.””

    And, she added presciently, “if you look at the areas of Northern Queensland and around the Great Barrier Reef, there is immense concern that action must start globally and it must start quickly. Part of starting that global action is for us to start. I do not see any problems with us being a first adopter; in fact, I see benefits.”

  50. brocollini, beans, snow peas, sugar snaps and asparagus.

    All best when lightly pan fried in a little butter until just starting to soften. Yum.

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