BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

An improvement in the Coalition’s still weak position on the poll aggregate, and a possible first sign of the Greens paying for their recent turmoil.

A bumper crop of three new polls this week has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to revert to type after blowing out in Labor’s favour for a couple of weeks. The Coalition had a particularly strong result in the weekly Essential Research sample, which elicited a one-point movement on its fortnight rolling average. The Coalition has gained three on the seat projection – one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. The Greens have taken a fairly solid knock on the primary vote, which certainly seems intuitively reasonable. However, a two-point drop from YouGov has had something to do with that, and this may for all I know reflect methodological fine-tuning. Newspoll has furnished a new set of data for leadership ratings, which hasn’t yielded anything too dramatic. YouGov also had approval ratings for the two leaders, but I gather they won’t be making a habit of this, so it hasn’t been included.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,501 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  1. WB

    [a possible first sign of the Greens paying for their recent turmoil.]

    It had to come.

    Those left in parliament look like a gutted pack of chooks.

    Has the sort of polling that says that around 70% of voters do not want the govt to subsidise ‘coal’, clean or not, mean that their ‘main mission’ is done and that other parties who ignore this do it at their peril so with public opinion settled on renewables it’s back to the economy, health and education as a focus?

    di Natale has work to do to make them relevant other than Sen ‘X’ like bartering of their numbers?

  2. ABC ‘Mornings’ – Trioli just suggested she should’ve had another day off.

    I can’t help thinking many more would be good!

  3. Morning all. So Roberts both was inelligible, and knew he was inelligible (since he sought to renounce his UK citizenship). His case is the worst of the lot. How do we force him out of parliament? He has also shamelessly lied. He must go. Labor and Greens must demand it.
    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-roberts-did-not-receive-confirmation-he-renounced-british-citizenship-until-months-after-election-20170727-gxkbtu.html

  4. Trump Goes Full Drama Queen And Makes His Communication Director Call CNN After He Gets Mad

    Instead of running the country, Donald Trump is watching CNN and making the White House Communications Director call in when they say something that he doesn’t like.

    In this case, authorized means that Trump was watching CNN, blew up over something they said and demanded that Scaramucci call in.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/27/trump-full-drama-queen-communication-director-call-cnn-mad.html

  5. Former CIA Dir Says People are Leaking Because of Atmosphere in Trump Administration

    Saying he wasn’t excusing leaks in any way, Hayden said you get leaks when people feel as if they’ve exhausted all means within the government to make their voices heard. “People leak when they’ve lost all alternative. So, my policy at the agency was to simply open up communication with the work force.”

    “I think we’re getting these leaks because of the atmosphere in the within the administration itself. If you want to stop the leaks, change the atmosphere.”

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/27/cia-dir-people-leaking-atmosphere-trump-administration.html

  7. Boy Scouts Issue Formal Apology For Lunatic Trump’s Madman Rant At National Jamboree

    For the first time ever, the Boy Scouts had to issue a formal apology after hosting Donald Trump’s insane political ranting at their national jamboree.

    It is a tradition for the Boy Scouts to invite the president to address their national gathering, but other nonpartisan organizations should think twice after watching Trump abuse the platform to push his agenda.

    Trump showed complete disrespect to the Boy Scouts. Here is hoping that they, and other organizations, never invite the President to speak to them again.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/27/boy-scouts-america-apologized-donald-trump.html

  9. Sean Hannity melts down over report he blew $42,000 on a 70-year-old lobster at Trump restaurant

    One anonymous waiter who works at the Trump International Hotel in Washington, D.C. tells GQ that Hannity recently spent $42,000 at a restaurant there — including a significant sum spent to cover “the cost of flying in an eight-pound 70-year-old lobster from Maine.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/sean-hannity-melts-down-over-report-he-blew-42000-on-a-70-year-old-lobster-at-trump-restaurant/

  10. Zen – From previous thread –

    Comments look pretty decent for me on my phone

    It’s the scrolling …

    I wonder if the extensions may help on a Windows 10 phone (I know …) ???

  11. [In addition, Professor Williams said former Greens senator Larissa Waters – who resigned after she found out that a law change in Canada had made her a citizen, despite her declining to take up citizenship when she was 21 – “may regret her resignation”.

    ” The Greens should be looking very carefully at their options in the light of the Canavan situation,” he said, as the High Court could redefine “reasonable steps” in the Canavan case.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-dissenting-argument-from-a-former-governorgeneral-that-could-save-matt-canavans-skin-20170727-gxjxkr.html

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Roberts received confirmation that his British citizenship had been revoked in December – a full six months after he nominated as a candidate to the Senate. So maybe we will be rid of this blight on the Senate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-roberts-did-not-receive-confirmation-he-renounced-british-citizenship-until-months-after-election-20170727-gxkbtu.html
    It all comes down to Roberts’ “belief”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/one-nation-senator-malcolm-roberts-denies-he-lied-is-choosing-to-believe-he-was-never-a-uk-citizen-20170727-gxjp3c.html
    Richo has his say on the Canavan case. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/graham-richardson/matt-canavans-italian-job-sounds-like-a-real-clunker/news-story/273f65b705bf7747caa0b1f939aba092
    Grattan on Friday – Michelle says Barnaby’s got his problems.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-if-high-court-disqualifies-canavan-joyce-will-be-scratching-for-cabinet-replacement-81710
    David Crowe writes that questions of citizenship are now deadly serious for all sides of politics as Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten consider how an accident of birth could shift power in the parliament. Google.
    /opinion/dual-nationality-affair-labor-oddson-to-take-first-hostage/news-story/4155627d9aae532e63dce2b39cec9686
    Even if Matt Canavan did acquire Italian citizenship without his consent or knowledge, it may not be enough to save his political career, writes Sydney University Professor Helen Irving.’
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/australian-constitutions-wide-net-catches-unwary-mps-in-s44i-trap,10541
    An unimpressed John Hewson writes “Strategies are emerging, as evidenced by the two recent scene-setting speeches by Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten at the Melbourne Institute – the differences were stark, but the substance of each was minimal.”
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/bill-shorten-and-malcolm-turnbull-make-different-promises-but-all-are-empty-20170726-gxjje6.html
    Things are bubbling along nicely inside the White House.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/white-house-rift-boils-over-as-scaramucci-jabs-at-priebus-over-leaks-20170727-gxkde2.html
    Trump’s new communications director has escalated his bizarre media interactions by phoning CNN to attack his colleagues, live on air, for leaking to the press.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/07/27/scaramucci-makes-extraordinary-phone-call-to-cnn-to-rant-about-l_a_23051745/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage

  13. Section 2 . . .

    The Chinese ban on beef imports from Australia is blamed on “human error”. At SIX factories??
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/human-error-blamed-for-shock-china-beef-ban-20170727-gxk7fc.html
    Protecting coastal infrastructures is just the beginning of our battle to survive the rising tide. Freelance journalist, Peter Boyer, who was awarded an OAM for services to conservation and the environment, reports.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/global-warmings-huge-and-endless-cost-of-rising-seas/
    London police say they have “reasonable grounds” to charge two organisations with corporate manslaughter over the Grenfell Tower disaster in June, in which at least 80 people were killed. There must be a blot of board members throughout the country shitting brick now!
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/manslaughter-charges-possible-for-grenfell-tower-disaster-police-say-20170727-gxkdip.html
    Barnaby Joyce’s demonstrates yet again his unsuitability for the job with his intemperate and revealing pub talk to farmers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/stop-greenies-running-the-show-joyce-unloads-on-four-corners-water-report-20170727-gxjp8s.html
    Michelle Grattan says that in sorting out the UNHCR/government disagreement over refugee resettlement will be important to the credibility of both sides.
    https://theconversation.com/sorting-out-what-happened-in-unhcr-and-government-talks-on-refugees-important-for-credibility-of-both-sides-81568
    This 9 year old autistic girl certainly put mental giant Pauline Hanson in her place!
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/nineyearold-girl-with-autism-applies-filter-then-sets-pauline-hanson-straight-20170719-gxee18.html
    Mark Kenny on another difficult aspect of Section 44 on the constitution.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-absurd-case-of-dr-mike-freelander-demonstrates-a-constitution-in-dire-need-of-an-update-20170727-gxjwe5.html
    James Massola thinks Canavan might find some assistance from a dissenting view in the Cleary case from 25 years ago.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-dissenting-argument-from-a-former-governorgeneral-that-could-save-matt-canavans-skin-20170727-gxjxkr.html
    Laura Tingle has a close look at how the new Home Affairs outfit will set itself up. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/laura-tingle/home-affairs-and-intelligence-will-be-driven-by-the-dollars-20170727-gxjvpr

  14. The GG yesterday was continuing to blame the Grreens yesterday, saying that they shouldn’t have resigned, but get further legal advice (presumably from the High Court).
    I guess it was their way of defending Carnavan.

  15. Section 3 . . .

    Labor is heading for a showdown over energy policy at its NSW conference this weekend, with the Australian Workers Union aiming to push the party into adopting a controversial gas reservation policy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-set-for-conference-showdown-as-unions-push-for-gas-reservation-policy-20170727-gxjx26.html
    If this doesn’t make you feel sick nothing will!
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/pakistan-village-council-orders-revenge-rape-of-girl-20170727-gxkck3.html
    Josh Bernstein says that wage fraud will continue until politicians stop it but doesn’t think that they will.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/27/wage-will-continue-until-politicians-stop-it-they-can-but-will-they
    Jennifer Hewett writes the politics of power Abbott style. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/lets-get-real-about-the-politics-of-power-tony-abbott-style-20170727-gxk4re
    Philip Nitschke puts his bit in as the Victorian voluntary euthanasia bill debate gets closer. Google.
    /opinion/our-aged-have-earned-right-to-make-choices-about-voluntary-euthanasia/news-story/7bbf471b41104356e45ff76f6769ddf3
    Josephine Tovey writes that it was always a con, and not a very good one. During his presidential tilt, Trump promised to turn the page on years of Republican hostility to progress on gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender rights by being an even better friend to the LGBT community than his opponent, Hillary Clinton.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/trumps-transgender-military-ban-shows-his-support-for-lgbt-rights-was-a-con-20170727-gxjm17.html
    A new anti-discrimination complaint will test the limits of free speech and religious expression in Australia, with two preachers — a Presbyterian pastor and a street evangelist — accused of offending gays and atheists. Google.
    /business/legal-affairs/preachers-in-free-speech-test-on-atheists-and-gays/news-story/c6039963d5224a7922a8f5cbbd65755e
    Van Badham tells us that inequality is real and guess what. The voters have noticed.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/28/inequality-is-real-and-guess-what-the-electorate-have-noticed
    Gillian Triggs succeeded in getting under Mesma’s skin!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/27/gillian-triggs-misguided-on-australias-human-rights-record-julie-bishop-says

  16. Further on Fake Senator Roberts, this casts Sky’s right wing political promotion in a poor light:

    “Senator Roberts showed the documents to Sky News presenter Paul Murray but they were not displayed on screen.”

    Where were the follow up questions from Murray?
    No comment on seeing the date Roberts not being a UK citizen was confirmed?
    No comment on him voting in the Senate while he knew it was not confirmed?
    No question on lies about “never being a UK citizen”?

    So a Fake News channel interviewed a Fake Senator.

  17. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner Part 1

    The Coalition has defended more than $5 billion in controversial cuts to the public service and federal government programs, as new detail shows the health and social services portfolios have lost $4.7 billion through efficiency audits.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/more-than-5-billion-in-public-service-efficiency-review-savings-detailed-20170725-gxi7o1.html
    The entrenched gender pay gap is expected to remain in Australian workplaces until at least 2067, a federal government agency has told Parliament.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/australias-gender-pay-gap-to-last-another-for-50-years-20170727-gxjmay.html
    Coca-Cola Amatil’s supermarket problems look set to deepen after Coles chief executive John Durkan warned the drinks giant’s Mount Franklin range of water products risked being cut back on its supermarket shelves.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/coles-boss-spray-deepens-cokes-water-woes-20170727-gxk0fw.html
    The tide has turned in the war on bikies, with more than 60 per cent of South Australia’s outlaw gang members now behind bars. Google.
    /news/law-order/correctional-services-figures-show-more-than-half-of-sas-bikies-behind-bars-as-crackdown-bites/news-story/bbc6d7ed16958fc03072b42f8844027f
    The dangers of “el desko” eating.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/lunching-al-desko-isnt-just-sad-its-bad-for-you-20170727-gxjqra.html

    Cathy Wilcox exposes Trump on his “support” of LGBTI.

    More form Ron Tandberg on citizenship for MPs.

  18. Section 6 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2

    Tandberg brilliantly lines up Malcolm Roberts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Broelman and the gatekeepers of Parliament House.

    A beautiful effort from David Pope! His depiction of Barnaby Joyce is fantastic.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Zanetti takes to the dinner table of the Canavan family.

    Stephen Colbert fixes a Trump Tweet on LGBTI support.

    Mark Knight on Pell’s court appearance.

    David Rowe has Trump reporting for duty.

    Andrew Dyson and NSW water issues.

    Mark Knight with Canavan fronting the High Court.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/3586ff347634a23b7c5e4ae94c48ac0e?width=1024
    Jon Kudelka with North Korea’s new weapon of parliamentary mass destruction.

  20. This cartoon lists some of the many reasons why we are becoming the Greece of the south. The kleptocracy rules on in Canberra. There will be no federal ICAC while the Libs are in power. Too many of them might be held to account. As Keating would say, they are inelligible swill. Have a good day all.

  21. Crikey this morning. Barnaby is obviously a serial liar when it suits him.

    Following Matt Canavan’s Italian fiasco, The Australian reports today that 21 MPs in the House of Representatives have talked about their migrant heritage in Parliament, opening up debate over their heritage and whether they are eligible for dual citizenship. Those MPs include Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce (who said earlier this week he had never been to England, which was untrue, as he had traveled (sic) to England a few weeks ago), Trade Minister Steve Ciobo, Julia Banks, deputy Labor leader Tanya Plibersek and Steve Georganas. Banks in particular could be in trouble as although she was born in Australia, she is of Greek heritage and might be automatically eligible for Greek citizenship.

  22. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/jul/28/australian-babies-given-antibiotics-at-some-of-the-highest-rates-in-the-world

    Australian babies are prescribed antibiotics at some of the highest rates in the world, risking possible long-term side-effects and speeding up antibiotic resistance in the community, which has been described by the World Health Organisation as a “global health emergency”.

    In the first study of its kind, researchers tracked antibiotic use in 660 children under the age of one, both prescribed by GPs, and administered in hospitals.

    Half of the babies tracked were were given antibiotics in the first year of life, many for conditions the researchers said did not need antibiotics.

  24. Lizzie
    So there are enough Fake Australian Fake MPs in parliament to change the government. I sit not time for a new election?

  26. Kate MacGregor, perpetually unhappy commentator on everything and any thing, on the ABC asked if she was surprised on Trumps reversal on LGBIs in the US military:

    WTTE “I’m not surprised that he reversed, just that he announced it overnight”.

    FMD. She is so close to Trump there’s only a few hours in it …

  28. Socrates

    Too many of them are puppets for someone else (Barnaby/Gina?). Their supposed nationality doesn’t matter when they can be bought.

  30. Ha!

    Bevan Shields‏Verified account
    @BevanShields

    Office of Malcolm Roberts threatens to report us to the police for asking questions about the senator’s citizenship #auspol

  31. http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/rare-wetlands-at-risk-in-plans-for-f6-extension-says-leaked-government-report-20170727-gxjyne.html

    The preferred alignment of the proposed F6 Extension goes through the Rockdale Wetlands and the Royal National Park a site with some of the “richest concentrations of plant species in temperate Australia”.

    The assessment, in a leaked Roads and Maritime Services report, also confirms that about 14 hectares of bushland, trees and wetlands will be cleared between Arncliffe and Loftus.

    The first section of the $14.5 billion toll road, between WestConnex at Arncliffe and President Avenue, Brighton-Le-Sands, would be built primarily on land historically reserved for the freeway.

    The “corridor of connecting natural and open space” forms part of the Rockdale Wetlands and Recreation Corridor.

    [Related Articles
    F6 planners told to ignore public transport, build roads ]

    “These areas provide foraging and roosting habitat for a range of migratory and non-migratory shorebirds and small bush birds. Wetlands include Eve Street, Marsh Street and Landing Lights wetlands which in combination form part of the only remaining migratory wading bird habitat on the western side of Botany Bay,” the report says.

    “Eve Street Wetland is listed on the Commonwealth government’s directory of important wetlands in Australia. There are a number of environmental constraints within the wetland, protected under state and Commonwealth legislation.”

  32. Is anyone tweeting Rowe to Trump’s twitter? The thought that he might stumble across one of Rowe’s pieces is delicious!

  33. In A Move That Reeks Of Mental Illness, Trump Says He Is Done With Priebus, But Won’t Fire Him

    If the President is “done” with someone, isn’t the next step to fire them? Since investigators began to look into Trump’s finances, and Anthony Scaramucci joined this White House the crazy has been ramped up to a new high.

    Donald Trump is the definition of presidential impotence. He claims to be done with his chief of staff but doesn’t have the guts to fire him. Only a crazy person would rant about his own staff the way that Trump does. There is something seriously wrong with this president, and surrounding him with more enablers is only making the problem worse.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/27/move-reeks-mental-illness-trump-priebus-fire.html

  34. Chaos In The Senate As 4 Republican Senators Threaten To Sink Skinny Obamacare Repeal Bill

    Republican Senators Lindsey Graham (SC), John McCain (AZ), Ron Johnson (WI), and Bill Cassidy (LA) held a joint press conference to announce that they would vote no on the skinny Obamacare repeal bill unless they got assurances from Paul Ryan that it would never become law.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/27/chaos-senate-4-republican-senators-threaten-sink-skinny-obamacare-repeal-bill.html

  38. Geez head of NBN Bill Morrow is a bullshitter par exellence.
    Not that Sabra Lane actually tested him that much of course.

    Have just about received by bullshit quota for the day as Greg Huuuuuuuuuuunt was on earlierfor some reason.

  40. Scaramucci: “I’m not Steve Bannon, I’m not trying to suck my own c**k.”

    Scaramucci also told me that, unlike other senior officials, he had no interest in media attention. “I’m not Steve Bannon, I’m not trying to suck my own c**k,” he said, speaking of Trump’s chief strategist. “I’m not trying to build my own brand off the fucking strength of the President. I’m here to serve the country.” (Bannon declined to comment.)

    http://www.newyorker.com/news/ryan-lizza/anthony-scaramucci-called-me-to-unload-about-white-house-leakers-reince-priebus-and-steve-bannon/amp

  41. Morning all

    I have been feeling this for quite sometime myself

    Claude Taylor
    Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated
    Whatever Trump has done is bad. Really bad. This is worse than “merely” stealing election. I don’t what it is-but we’re going to find out.
    8:15 AM · Jul 28, 2017

  42. lizzie
    Ha!
    Actually some feel good announcements about tracking people who doctor shop. Probably worthwhile initiative, but hardly worth prime position on AM and a 10 minute interview.

  43. PhoenixRed

    Just when you thought the Trump shit show could not get any more ridiculous, up pops Scarmucci and delivers more crap!

  45. adrian @ #38 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 6:24 am

    Geez head of NBN Bill Morrow is a bullshitter par exellence.

    Come on Adrian, Blot and McCrann have just told me that the LNP’s NBN has been too successful and if we had Labor’s NBN is would only be 15% – 20% built now for the same cost, not the 50% that the genius Morrow has actually delivered.

    Clicking on this link is NOT advised if you have anger management problems:
    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/mccrann-liberals-nbn-is-better/news-story/74c2cbb612d58fa0e3fa7339442e56d9

  46. Asawin Suebsaeng‏Verified account @swin24 1h1 hour ago
    I have heard repeatedly from people who know @Scaramucci that he has frequently confused on-background/off-the-record/deep-background/etc…

  48. Anthony Scaramucci is imploding in real time By Bill Palmer

    Scaramucci called Priebus a “paranoid schizophrenic” while referring to Steve Bannon as performing a sexual act on himself that’s not physically possible.

    If this is not an act, then Anthony Scaramucci is imploding in such swift fashion that one has to wonder if he might end up leaving the White House by week’s end in a straitjacket.

    Who is this guy? What is going on here? And how did Donald Trump manage to find someone who’s even more unhinged than he is?

  49. confessions

    I have heard repeatedly from people who know @Scaramucci that he has frequently confused on-background/off-the-record/deep-background/etc…

    ******************************************

    Confessions – as I posted earlier :

    GOP strategist Rick Wilson wonders if Scaramucci might be ‘hoovering up’ cocaine before ‘manic interviews’

    “Does anyone else think Scaramucci might be hoovering up a little Bolivian marching powder before these manic interviews?” Wilson tweeted.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/gop-strategist-rick-wilson-wonders-if-scaramucci-might-be-hoovering-up-cocaine-before-manic-interviews/

  50. PhoenixRed:

    Drug use could explain his bizarre behaviour, but I’m inclined to think he’s just another Trump type, arrogant, lacking in self awareness and totally believing his shit doesn’t stink.

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