BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

An improvement in the Coalition’s still weak position on the poll aggregate, and a possible first sign of the Greens paying for their recent turmoil.

A bumper crop of three new polls this week has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to revert to type after blowing out in Labor’s favour for a couple of weeks. The Coalition had a particularly strong result in the weekly Essential Research sample, which elicited a one-point movement on its fortnight rolling average. The Coalition has gained three on the seat projection – one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. The Greens have taken a fairly solid knock on the primary vote, which certainly seems intuitively reasonable. However, a two-point drop from YouGov has had something to do with that, and this may for all I know reflect methodological fine-tuning. Newspoll has furnished a new set of data for leadership ratings, which hasn’t yielded anything too dramatic. YouGov also had approval ratings for the two leaders, but I gather they won’t be making a habit of this, so it hasn’t been included.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,501 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  1. One can only wonder with increasingly apprehensive incredulity where this shit show that is the Trump presidency will end.

  4. zoomster @ #144 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 11:20 am

    ‘Our poorest cannot afford food that builds health.’

    Well, they can.

    The kinds of foods which build health are probably as cheap as they’ve ever been.

    Our poorest prefer to eat the kinds of foods which don’t build health. It’s cultural.

    I am in furious agreement with that. Fresh food is IMHO cheaper than junk food and processed food. It really is a cultural thing.

  6. **Our poorest prefer to eat the kinds of foods which don’t build health. It’s cultural.**
    It is a fascinating topic. Solutions are minefields.

  7. Ides of March

    I am merely stating that Only two senators voted against sanctions, and Sanders was one of them. Nothing conspiratorial about that. It is a fact. His reasoning doesn’t wash. Not one dem thought to vote in this way for this reason. You can argue that he is an idealogue, but I am not buying it

  9. http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/labour-softens-position-on-brexit-with-backing-for-single-market-membership-a3597236.html

    Senior Labour politicians have opened the door to supporting Britain remaining a member of the single market after Brexit in a dramatic shift in stance for the party.

    Shadow chancellor John McDonnell and shadow Brexit secretary told Labour supporters that all options should be considered to ensure Britain retained the benefits of the single market and customs union.

    Better late than never…a step towards revoking Brexit.

  10. bemused @ #154 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 11:29 am

    Fresh food is IMHO cheaper than junk food and processed food.

    Tend to agree. I’ve always found fresh produce to be quite affordable in Australia (except for when a cyclone rolls through and wipes out all the bananas, or tomatos, or whatever). It’s the processed stuff that tends to cost an arm and a leg.

    Pretty much the exact opposite of the situation in the States.

  11. bemused

    Yes. Affordable healthy food has to be made into more of the culture.

    More community farms. So people can grow their own. Even those who are not good with growing things can contribute to such things in other ways. More laws that let restaurants and supermarkets donate healthy food waste to charities.

    More fast food solutions that are healthy and less of the McDonald’s type franchises.

    We have started on this cultural change. However every fast food outlet that is more convenient than healthy food options is an ingrained part of our culture.

    Asian fast food is probably the most healthy fast food we have.

  12. guytaur @ #140 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 11:12 am

    When the CEO of Coles is lamenting the food choices of the poor, there is a real problem. Our poorest cannot afford food that builds health.

    The CEO of Coles was misquoted. What he was actually lamenting was that “Our poorest cannot afford food that builds our wealth.

  13. guytaur
    Confessions

    I am really having a bad day today. Sorry.

    Its in relation to this.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-28/coles-boss-on-energy-bill-fallout/8751852

    That sounds like self serving bullsh!t.

    While he mentions fresh produce, it, mainly, focuses on processed food and seems to be saying that buying a cheaper similar item is unhealthy.

    As Zoom, is pointing out, fresh food is relatively cheap.

    The downside of fresh food is it often requires cooking, a skill we seem to be losing.

  15. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-migrants-register-home-office-brexit-amber-rudd-free-movement-implementation-a7864016.html

    EU citizens moving to the UK will have to register with the Home Office after free movement ends in 2019, the Home Secretary has said, as she again indicated a Brexit “implementation phase”.

    Amber Rudd’s comments came after immigration minister Brandon Lewis said earlier in the day the Government was “very clear” that the free movement of labour would end after Brexit.

    Meanwhile the Tories step towards the bureaucratisation of labour.

  17. mimhoff

    [If anything the poor cannot afford the time to prepare fresh food, even if it is cheap to purchase.]

    And if they’ve got access to a kettle and a microwave they’re lucky.

  18. mimhoff
    If anything the poor cannot afford the time to prepare fresh food, even if it is cheap to purchase.

    Is it just time or are we losing the basic skills of cooking?

  19. Another opinion on Roberts from Prof Anne Twomey (Uni Syd, constitutional law)

    … says Senator Roberts must clear up two pressing questions – when his renunciation took effect and exactly what steps he took before nominating to renounce

    “It would be significant if that renunciation took effect after the nomination date. The legal status of renunciation is a matter of UK law – not a matter of what Senator Roberts ‘chooses to believe'”

    The second question is whether he had taken ‘all reasonable steps’ to renounce his foreign citizenship before the nomination date. If there was a formal procedure to do so and he did not comply with that procedure before the nomination date then it is arguable that he did not take all reasonable steps.”

    Combining these two issues – if, at the date of nomination, Senator Roberts was as a matter of UK law still a citizen of the United Kingdom and if, at that time, he had not taken all reasonable steps to renounce that citizenship as he had not complied with the legal procedure for doing so – then there is a good case to say he was in breach of section 44. It would be a matter for the High Court, however, to decide that.”

    ”

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-roberts-expert-anne-twomey-believes-one-nation-senator-may-have-breached-constitution-20170727-gxkeol.html

  20. Another factor in the food purchasing is how many people are single now. Not many go to the effort of pre cooking and freezing meals. They just eat out instead.

  21. Khalil Eideh​, who was born in Lebanon and identifies as Muslim, was barred from boarding a flight to Denver while trying to leave from Vancouver, Canada.

    JBishop come on down!

  22. The fresh foot/fast food/processed food conundrum is a complex one, and not quite as saying that ‘poorer’ people tend to rely on junk food for cultural reasons, whatever that means.

    If it means that wealthier people can afford to eat out more at fine restaurants where the food is of a higher quality, well maybe.
    However many people these days, whether rich or poor, cannot afford the time to prepare fresh food at home.

  23. Washington Post
    15 mins ·
    “In Trump’s Washington, it’s a fact of life that officials must now weigh whether they would follow presidential orders that might be improper or illegal,” David Ignatius writes in Opinion.

    If this is true it’s very serious and further reinforces the need for Republicans to make moves to impeach Trump.

  24. guytaur

    ‘Affordable healthy food has to be made into more of the culture. More community farms. So people can grow their own.’

    Sorry, no. I enjoy growing my own veggies, and do it largely so that I can eat varieties which aren’t available in the stores, but it costs me more to grow them than it would to buy them.

    Carrots are around $2 a kilo. A packet of seeds is around that price. You then have to spend money on fertilisers (even organic ones cost money), water etc etc and of course, labour.

    Similarly, I gave up processing my own chickens long ago. Far simpler and easier to sell the roosters and buy a free range chicken with the money.

    Growing your own food is a niche thing. It’s far cheaper to buy it.

    By cultural, what I mean is that the eating habits of the ‘poor’ are established by their social environment. They grow up eating processed foods and going to fast food outlets. (The highly disadvantaged young adults I taught last year rarely cooked for themselves- they went to Maccas or Kentucky Fried Chicken instead).

  26. mimoff
    partly time related. I am sure there are emotional reasons too. And as zoom said, cultural reasons. Habits, by definition (i think), are hard to break.

    I hate the cooking shows and their confected drama, but perhaps reality cooking shows are the best solution to the problem. If only they had some (more) challenges for basic recipe/everyday meals.

  27. ItzaDream
    Another opinion on Roberts from Prof Anne Twomey (Uni Syd, constitutional law)

    That’s pretty much the position I think we’ve come to here.

    Thanks.

  28. Victoria

    Fess
    Yes. There has been quite a lot of chatter by those I follow in this imbroglio. The suggestion has been that Sanders is compromised and when this shit show is fully exposed, there are going To be very disappointed Bernie supporters

    A total crock of shit.
    Sanders voted against it because the bastards wanted to blow up the Iran deal by including sancti0ns against that country in the Russia bill.
    Some people are easily sucked in.

  29. The Tories are taking the UK to the precipice – to the point where the EU will withdraw from negotiations. At this juncture the Tory Government will become immobilised by their own incompetence and obstinacy. They will have hung themselves out for a hard Brexit – for the very proposition the electorate rejected on 8 June.

    By declaring a change in their position on the customs union and single market, Labour seem to be preparing for the defeat of the Government. This cannot be far off. The Repeal Bill debate will commence in a few weeks. Surely the Tories will divide and tumble down.

  30. adrian
    Fresh foot, very tasty.

    Now where has that edit function gone?

    And I thought you were just outing some of your fetishes. 🙂

  32. I hate the cooking shows and their confected drama, but perhaps reality cooking shows are the best solution to the problem.

    We had Jamie’s Ministry of Food come down over the summer to run a 9 (I think) week cooking class for low income people. Not only was it a popular class, but the results were very good. Even now agencies who referred people into the class report ongoing behaviour change.

  34. Barney in Go Dau @ #164 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 11:39 am

    guytaur
    Confessions

    I am really having a bad day today. Sorry.

    Its in relation to this.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-28/coles-boss-on-energy-bill-fallout/8751852

    That sounds like self serving bullsh!t.

    While he mentions fresh produce, it, mainly, focuses on processed food and seems to be saying that buying a cheaper similar item is unhealthy.

    As Zoom, is pointing out, fresh food is relatively cheap.

    The downside of fresh food is it often requires cooking, a skill we seem to be losing.

    Cooking is not really hard. Sure, if you want to cook complex dishes it gets harder, but a simple meat and 3 vegs is not hard and neither are many other simple meals. And what’s wrong with salads?

  35. I’ve occasionally taught cooking classes in schools.

    Ironically, the ideal cooking class involves preparing a meal which takes at least three quarters of an hour, because you have at least an hour and a half to fill.

    Microwaves are rarely (if ever) used, because they’re an expensive piece of kit.

    I have a whole range of meals which take 15-30 minutes to prepare from scratch. None of them were taught in our cookery classes.

  37. CTar1 @ #168 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 11:42 am

    mimhoff

    [If anything the poor cannot afford the time to prepare fresh food, even if it is cheap to purchase.]

    And if they’ve got access to a kettle and a microwave they’re lucky.

    Second hand appliances are readily available and charities may even give them away. The time argument does not stack up either.

  38. Sanders explanation of why he didn’t vote for the Russia sanctions bill. Seems perfectly logical. Also note that Sanders has always been consistent in highlighting Russian interference in the election, and the Trump Russia enquiry.

    “I am strongly supportive of the sanctions on Russia included in this bill. It is unacceptable for Russia to interfere in our elections here in the United States, or anywhere around the world. There must be consequences for such actions. I also have deep concerns about the policies and activities of the Iranian government, especially their support for the brutal Assad regime in Syria. I have voted for sanctions on Iran in the past, and I believe sanctions were an important tool for bringing Iran to the negotiating table. But I believe that these new sanctions could endanger the very important nuclear agreement that was signed between the United States, its partners and Iran in 2015. That is not a risk worth taking, particularly at a time of heightened tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia and its allies. I think the United States must play a more even-handed role in the Middle East, and find ways to address not only Iran’s activities, but also Saudi Arabia’s decades-long support for radical extremism.”

  39. The most excellent property of the new chat format is that insults soon slide from view. Out of sight is close to out of mind.

  40. Good morning all,

    Labor does not have to do anything re the citizenship issue except ensure it has all its own ducks in a row.
    Di Natalie and the greens have got the shits that Canavan is hanging tough so they will prosecute the matter as hard as they can and apply public pressure on the government by keeping the matter alive.

    Malcolm Roberts will ensure he remains under the pump by his own inept handling of the matter and will be pushed along by both the greens and the government.

    Labor just has to sit back and watch it all unfold.

    Cheers.

  41. zoomster @ #174 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 11:47 am

    The highly disadvantaged young adults I taught last year rarely cooked for themselves- they went to Maccas or Kentucky Fried Chicken instead

    How young are we talking? I was never highly disadvantaged, but certainly rarely (if ever) cooked meals from scratch when I was young and single and busy with University. It just wasn’t worth the planning, time, effort, and cleanup. Buying a prepared meal (or single ready-to-eat food-item and calling it a “meal”) from the supermarket or going out for food was faster and easier.

    Age may be influencing their eating habits as much as social standing.

  45. bemused
    Barney in Go Dau @ #164 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 11:39 am

    …

    The downside of fresh food is it often requires cooking, a skill we seem to be losing.

    Cooking is not really hard. Sure, if you want to cook complex dishes it gets harder, but a simple meat and 3 vegs is not hard and neither are many other simple meals. And what’s wrong with salads?

    Yeah,

    but is that what people have forgotten?

    As ‘fess points out with her cooking class example.

    I’d imagine one of the positive reactions was, “That’s not hard.”

  46. Player One @ #184 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 11:53 am

    Oh dear. Our resident insulter-in-chief is back. Can someone please develop a new version of STFU?

    Your comment was just your typical flippant stupidity with no factual basis.

    Whatever else one may say about Goyder, he has taken some quite progressive stands on a number of issues including better pay for workers.

  47. Zoom

    [I enjoy growing my own veggies, and do it largely so that I can eat varieties which aren’t available in the stores, but it costs me more to grow them than it would to buy them.]

    I don’t have space for a real veggie patch but can always find a bit of wall and garden space to put in stuff like beans, a few strawberries, and pots with herbs.

    Besides the fact the stuff is fresh (herbs about 20 times better than bought) it’s a really good thing for family children to be involved in.

    The love it when parsley comes from a pot near the front door and mint sauce is made for roast lamb from scratch from mint from the pot outside, etc.

    I have no lack of people to water the stuff.

  50. ar
    when i was a uni student I also ate out a lot. but that was at small hole in the wall type restaurants that were cheap and reasonably healthy – it was not considered cool to go to KFC or Maccas although the ‘all you can eat’ Pizza Hut across Barker St was the exception when waiting for late night lectures.

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