BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

An improvement in the Coalition’s still weak position on the poll aggregate, and a possible first sign of the Greens paying for their recent turmoil.

A bumper crop of three new polls this week has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to revert to type after blowing out in Labor’s favour for a couple of weeks. The Coalition had a particularly strong result in the weekly Essential Research sample, which elicited a one-point movement on its fortnight rolling average. The Coalition has gained three on the seat projection – one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. The Greens have taken a fairly solid knock on the primary vote, which certainly seems intuitively reasonable. However, a two-point drop from YouGov has had something to do with that, and this may for all I know reflect methodological fine-tuning. Newspoll has furnished a new set of data for leadership ratings, which hasn’t yielded anything too dramatic. YouGov also had approval ratings for the two leaders, but I gather they won’t be making a habit of this, so it hasn’t been included.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,501 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

  2. Colbert was a voice actor (small part) in a kids animation movie I watched last week, Mr Peabody and Sherman.

    I notice the Rassmussen poll, (an interesting one that forces people to choose and normally very conservative leaning – possibly catching the shy redneck vote) was holding strong for Trump but recently has been plummeting for him. Latest is 59-41. 538 gives the poll a low rating and it gets ridiculed elsewhere, but I like to watch the trend on these types of polls.

  3. Fess

    Yes. There has been quite a lot of chatter by those I follow in this imbroglio. The suggestion has been that Sanders is compromised and when this shit show is fully exposed, there are going To be very disappointed Bernie supporters

  4. Re the reference to the wage fraud article in the Dawn Patrol (thanks, BK):

    An employment law firm (advertising itself on Lawyers Weekly) says this:

    “Our team has done over 700 compliance reviews of Australian businesses, and by our estimate, 80 per cent of business owners don’t have a solid understanding of the basic legal structure and obligations; 90 per cent are non-compliant in some significant way; 30 per cent don’t use employment agreements; 60 per cent of those that do have employment agreements are flawed in some fundamental way (commonly they are pulled off the internet); 40 per cent have no policy documents at all; 60 per cent have incorrect award coverage; [and] 10 per cent have underpayment issues.”

    They go on to say “Of course most employers want to do the right thing”.

    See https://www.lawyersweekly.com.au/sme-law/21579-completely-new-business-model-moving-beyond-newlaw-and-biglaw

    I’d agree with the remark about most wanting to do the right thing, but there are those that only “want” in a general way but find it all too much trouble. Those are the ones who could benefit from the kind of service that Cooee is touting in the article. Then of course there are those who actively try to avoid their obligations. The FW Ombudsman moves on them when ABC and/or Fairfax bring the firms to their attention.

  5. SK

    Speaking of polling

    britainelects: Fallowfield (Manchester) result:

    LAB: 76.9% (+15.3)
    GRN: 9.4% (-12.6)
    LDEM: 7.3% (+3.4)
    CON: 6.4% (-3.8)

    No TUSC as prev.

    Its good to see socialist Labour is doing well.

  6. SK:

    Apparently Colbert used to teach Sunday School, so I guess reading fiction to children is something he’d be familiar with. 😀

  8. Victoria

    I liked the policies Sanders was promoting at the time. As you know I preferred Clinton on others her slogan of build bridges not walls said it all for me.

    I just thought Sanders might have won. However like most sensible people I thought Sanders policies being adopted by the Democrats was the sensible way to go. At that point I thought all opposing Trump being President should have got behind Clinton.

    It never made sense to me that some so called Democrat voters were voting for Trump. It said to me those voters were not and never were Democrat voters.

  10. Guytaur,

    What was the question?

    guytaur
    SK

    Speaking of polling

    britainelects: Fallowfield (Manchester) result:

    LAB: 76.9% (+15.3)
    GRN: 9.4% (-12.6)
    LDEM: 7.3% (+3.4)
    CON: 6.4% (-3.8)

    No TUSC as prev.

    Its good to see socialist Labour is doing well.

  12. Guytaur

    The mission was to get votes away from Clinton.

    In any event, time will tell if Sanders is a cleanskin or not. So far, I am leaning towards not

  13. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/26/when-they-take-the-water-from-a-barkandji-person-they-take-our-blood?CMP=share_btn_tw

    [I teach young Australians about Aboriginal culture and how they should respect the Barka, the Darling River. There’s nothing to teach if there’s no river, writes Badger Bates for @IndigenousX
    William ‘Badger’ Bates is an artist, educator and elder of the Barkandji people
    …
    I’ll be 70 in October. When I was growing up, until I was in my thirties, the Barka never went dry. But after that, they started pumping it dry. For the last five to eight years, we say the Barka’s buka. That means the Darling River’s dead. It stinks of the dead fish. It’s rotten.

    About three years ago we got our native title rights. They recognised our rights to the land, but we had no rights over the water. To us, it was bad. From the middle of the Darling, around Wilcannia and Menindee, to see what the irrigators are doing up the top was really bad. Now the irrigators have proved that they can stop the river.
    ]

  18. FFS people should leave Malcolm Roberts alone. He’s by far the greatest entertainment in the current parliament.

  23. Fess

    So true.

    Meanwhile this is spot on
    John Schindler @20committee
    I’m sure the morning leadership intel briefs in Moscow, Beijing and Tehran are basically comedic gloat-fests now.

    AV8 @AV8intheblue
    Replying to @20committee
    Anyone that doesn’t think this GREATLY IMPACTS our standing in the World…is either ignorant beyond comprehension or chooses to be
    10:26 AM · Jul 28, 2017

  24. Barney

    I have stuffed on those polling results big time on search today. Its actual Council by election results of Council mentioned in the poll.
    ——————————
    My apologies to all for the resulting multiple posts.

  25. victoria
    Scaramucci is what happens when the Whitehouse has been taken over by a mafia crime family.

    *************************************************

    David Cay Johnston, who has extensively investigated Trump’s mafia ties, wrote in Politico last year, and “Trump’s career has benefited from a decades-long and largely successful effort to limit and deflect law enforcement investigations into his dealings with top mobsters, organized crime associates, labor fixers, corrupt union leaders, con artists and even a one-time drug trafficker whom Trump retained as the head of his personal helicopter service.”

    Trump Is a Mobster President

    https://newrepublic.com/article/143253/trump-mobster-president

  26. GT

    [I am hoping Senator McKim or Adam Bandt becomes the new leader.]

    McKim about as ill-mannered as they come and Brandt just full of “I should be leader because I should be leader”

    Either of them quite capable of driving their parliamentary numbers to nil.

  29. PhoenixRed

    Why I still can’t get how the GOP allowed his nomination as candidate For President to stand.

    Fess

    The other senator was Rand Paul, who is alleged to be an Agent for the Kremlin!!

    Eric Garland @ericgarland
    KNOW THEM BY THEIR ACTIONS: Rand Paul and Bernie Sanders voted against Russia sanctions. ONLY TWO SENATORS TO DO SO.

  31. Vic:

    Rand Paul used to be a relatively sane Republican. I don’t know what’s happened to him but over the last couple of years he’s turned numptyville.

  33. Bernie Sanders voted against the bill based on Iran issues according to his twitter. He wanted Irans compliance with nuclear policies to be recertified.

  34. CT

    All I will say about that is being rude and wanting leadership did not stop a lot of Labor people. That includes Bob Hawke.

    I don’t see that as being a barrier to being a good leader. Labor had no problem with having Senator McKim as a Minister when it suited them to be in government.

  35. I have to reassess my opinion that the HC would let Roberts off. I think those who have argued that he would have to at least prove he filled out the correct forms and paid the fee before nominating to satisfy the reasonable efforts requirement have the right of it. Doubtful that the HC would find looking up the form and process on the internet and filling it out with a fee amounts to an onerous undertaking.

    Now come on peeps. Lets have a few LNP members in the Reps found with foreign skeletons in their closets. A couple of by elections would spice up life nicely.

  36. Ratsak

    As Christine Milne said. Look at HOR members of the LNP. There is a reason the Government is willing to back “Senator” Canavan’s story being taken to the High Court

  39. Ides of March

    Yeah. That would explain why Sanders has never been critical of the Kremlin in this whole imbroglio.

    Something stinks

  40. muzzlefreemadam: @sallymcmanus @vanbadham When the CEO of Coles is lamenting the food choices of the poor, there is a real problem. Our poorest cannot afford food that builds health.

  41. If Sanders opposed the sanctions bill due to Iran concerns then it is a thumbs up from me.

    Closer ties with Iran should be the focus. Isolating them further is dangerous.

  42. Vic:

    You’ve got the wrong end. Sanders wants the sanctions on Russia and N Korea. He also wanted the fact that Iran was complying with nuclear policies noted and recertified. Because he got nothing on Iran he voted against it.

  43. ‘Our poorest cannot afford food that builds health.’

    Well, they can.

    The kinds of foods which build health are probably as cheap as they’ve ever been.

    Our poorest prefer to eat the kinds of foods which don’t build health. It’s cultural.

  45. muzzlefreemadam: @sallymcmanus @vanbadham When the CEO of Coles is lamenting the food choices of the poor, there is a real problem. Our poorest cannot afford food that builds health.

    What is this in relation to Guytaur?

  49. Kakuru:

    No definitely Rand. He’s always struck me as on the sane side, which admittedly isn’t much given the Republicans are so crazy.

  50. confessions
    muzzlefreemadam: @sallymcmanus @vanbadham When the CEO of Coles is lamenting the food choices of the poor, there is a real problem. Our poorest cannot afford food that builds health.

    What is this in relation to Guytaur?

    I’d imagine it’s referring to a speech made yesterday by the Chairman(?) of Wesfarmers on inequality.

    Wesfarmers happen to own Coles.

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