BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

An improvement in the Coalition’s still weak position on the poll aggregate, and a possible first sign of the Greens paying for their recent turmoil.

A bumper crop of three new polls this week has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to revert to type after blowing out in Labor’s favour for a couple of weeks. The Coalition had a particularly strong result in the weekly Essential Research sample, which elicited a one-point movement on its fortnight rolling average. The Coalition has gained three on the seat projection – one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. The Greens have taken a fairly solid knock on the primary vote, which certainly seems intuitively reasonable. However, a two-point drop from YouGov has had something to do with that, and this may for all I know reflect methodological fine-tuning. Newspoll has furnished a new set of data for leadership ratings, which hasn’t yielded anything too dramatic. YouGov also had approval ratings for the two leaders, but I gather they won’t be making a habit of this, so it hasn’t been included.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,501 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

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  2. Message from the US military chief to Trump: if you want to change policy on transgender people, do it properly and not via tweets.

    The US military will continue to permit transgender individuals to serve openly until Pentagon chief Jim Mattis has received President Donald Trump’s “direction” to change the policy and how to implement it, America’s top military officer says.

    In a memo to all military service chiefs, commanders and enlisted military leaders, General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said “there will be no modifications” to current policy for now, amid questions about Mr Trump’s announcement on Twitter that the US government will no longer “accept or allow” transgender people to serve in any capacity in the military.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-28/us-military-transgender-policy-remains-unchanged-for-now/8751220

  4. CNN Politics
    12 mins ·
    BREAKING: The Senate passes legislation that puts new sanctions on Russia and limits President Donald J. Trump’s ability to ease them.

  5. confessions

    CNN Politics
    12 mins ·
    BREAKING: The Senate passes legislation that puts new sanctions on Russia and limits President Donald J. Trump’s ability to ease them

    ****************************************

    Vlad will be mighty peed off – wonder how long it takes till he no longer needs Donald as a useful fool ?????

  7. Greetings from Scotland Bludgers.
    Please forgive but I think Roberts is in the clear in that he had made, before the election, reasonable efforts to renounce his British citizenship. At least that’s the way it could be argued.

    Canavan on the other hand is (spaghetti on) toast, he’s lying through his hat & has thrown his mum under the bus like all these despicable spivs would do to save their seat.

  8. It seems to be lost on some here that if the Greens pv goes down without an accompanying lift in the Labor pv, the Labor 2pp will most likely go down – which may well be what we are seeing in this latest update of Bludgertrack.

    Don’t let your hatred of the Greens get in the way of your political judgement folks. The 80+% of preferences their supporters regularly deliver to Labor should never be taken for granted.

  10. @Darn, however if 80% of voters who shifted from the greens vote Labor, leaving 20% to vote independent, or liberal for some strange reason, then that effect is cancelled out.

  11. And given how those independent voters preferences fall, labor could even improve its 2pp under such circumstances. (This is of course making some broad assumptions)

  12. Spot on Darn,

    Unless Labor hovers up 80+% of any fall in the Green vote it’s a bad thing for Labor.

    It’s like chasing Green votes in electorates the Greens can’t win, more than likely those votes are going to get to you when preferences are distributed.

    While taking a vote off the Libs is effectively worth two votes, one less for them, one more for you in the race to 50% + 1.

  13. However, I do agree, particularly when you factor in how many reluctant Labor voters can often vote green deliberately as a soft-vote for Labor (Perhaps those who really dislike Shorten)

  14. Spokesman for Roberrts says there is no incongruity with senator’s claims to have never held British citizenship and to have renounced it on 6 June 2016.

    PHON only employs staffers who can believe contradictory facts at the same time.

  16. Darn

    Depends which Green voters are ‘lost’. If they were the 20% whose preferences end up with the Libs anyway, it doesn’t make any difference. In fact, it’s hard to see how the Greens polling 0% would make much difference – their votes would still split along the lines they do at present.

  17. Darn

    [Don’t let your hatred of the Greens get in the way of your political judgement folks.]

    I don’t hate the ‘Greens’. When I vote federally I put the after the ALP.

    But who and what they are and what they are doing is becoming very confused.

    Even who is ‘in-charge’ is doubtful.

  18. I have always suspected Trump was a cocaine addict, especially since his constant ‘sniffing’ during debates. His behaviour is suitably manic. Scaramucci looks to be cut from the same cloth.

  19. lizzie
    Spokesman for Roberrts says there is no incongruity with senator’s claims to have never held British citizenship and to have renounced it on 6 June 2016.

    PHON only employs staffers who can believe contradictory facts at the same time.

    Yes, Lizzie. It’s amazing how deluded they are.

    Having travelled international as a British citizen is clearly no indication of having held British citizenship.

    I think there might be a flaw in such an assertion!

  21. And I don’t ‘hate’ the Greens. I’m just massively disappointed that they don’t do the heavy lifting on environmental issues. I’ve gone into bat on controversial issues locally, had absolutely no support from any Green whatsoever, and then seen the Greens take credit for a result.

    I’ve marched in support of Greens’ issues — only to be personally abused by the speakers at the rally, whilst the Liberals were ignored.

    As a result of the latter, my son hates the Greens!

  22. @Barney
    Perhaps he’s actually a fraudster with forged (sovereign citizen) documentation…
    This ‘evidence’ when it does surface, will be nothing more than a printed out copy of an email (Read, typed out fake).
    Give me the mail server logs, maybe we could ask the Russians?

  23. zoomster
    [And I don’t ‘hate’ the Greens. I’m just massively disappointed that they don’t do the heavy lifting on environmental issues.]

    Same here.

  24. @jenauthor
    Billionaire property developer, high-rise penthouse, born into wealth, young (exploited) models and dodgy foreign connections. Cocaine comes with the territory

  26. Agree Zoom,

    Both are basically on the same side, but with different priorities.

    That’s why I don’t understand the animosity from both sides.

    As I said earlier the gains from winning votes from the Libs are much greater than winning them from each other.

    A truce needs to be called and both Parties need to sit down and work out how they can effectively attack the Right.

  28. Good Morning

    I will comment on the Greens. I too find they are confused. Don’t know what they are doing. This will continue until new leadership asserts itself.

    No matter what you think of the Greens it is clear that Senator Di Natale is not a good leader for the Greens. He does not get the cut through that Bob Brown and Christine Milne did.

    By sidelining SHY from immigration he effectively cut the Greens voice in half no matter what you think of SHY’s views on the subject.

    The same with Adam Bandt. Mr Bandt should be in the media much for. He represents the big win for the Greens.

    The only good thing he has done is to have Senator McKim speak a couple of times. Mr McKim though has not been effective on the Greens immigration platform.

    Thats a backwards step and a failing of the Greens to hold onto the gains they have made.

    Zoomster’s experience shows the amateur organisation side. A professional party would make sure that they do not unnecessarily put people off side. Again shown by the handling of the sexual assault allegations in the ACT. Amateur meant the issue was handled badly.

    Thus its vital the Greens get a good leader who is willing to tackle the real reform the Greens need to turn it into a real third force in politics for the long term. Like any growing party lessons have to be learnt. Just look at Labor. Still learning and its the oldest political party.

    I am hoping Senator McKim or Adam Bandt becomes the new leader. So they become effective again. The Greens need their voice back for the good of the country on climate change

  29. Darn

    If you are there, you might like to have a look at a couple of posts from last night at 9:28pm and 9:49pm to clarify your position. You were accused of making a “snarky bullshit comment”.

  32. Apparently Trump doesn’t actually fire people. Either he gets someone else to do it, or forces them to resign by repeatedly belittling them.

  33. lizzie @ #65 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 9:44 am

    :large” rel=”nofollow”>:large

    How can Greg the Hunt lie like this?

    He passed the lying with a straight face test that all Liberal members have to go through as part of the pre-selection process.

    Greg Huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuunt has made it his life’s work, however.

    Also, when someone makes a statement like that on national radio, you’d think that the highly trained and highly skilled interviewer may have picked him up on it.

  34. Zeh
    @Barney
    Perhaps he’s actually a fraudster with forged (sovereign citizen) documentation…
    This ‘evidence’ when it does surface, will be nothing more than a printed out copy of an email (Read, typed out fake).
    Give me the mail server logs, maybe we could ask the Russians?

    I now think the supposed emails are not worth a pinch of sh!t.

    Having looked into the actual process required to renounce your British citizenship, emails are no part of that process.

    So, for me, the lodging of the appropriate forms and payment of the fee are the indication of having taken “reasonable steps.”

    So, I think the critical date for Roberts is the date the application was received by, or payment made to, the British Authorities.

  38. Adrian

    [you’d think that the highly trained and highly skilled interviewer may have picked him up on it.]

    Sarcasm to the max. 🙂

  40. zoomster
    Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 9:47 am
    Comment #66
    Darn

    Depends which Green voters are ‘lost’. If they were the 20% whose preferences end up with the Libs anyway, it doesn’t make any difference. In fact, it’s hard to see how the Greens polling 0% would make much difference – their votes would still split along the lines they do at present.

    Zoom

    I’ve seen that argument before, but we don’t know that. Some of them may choose to vote informal in protest, others may filter their votes through other minor parties which don’t issue HTV cards directing their preferences to Labor. There is bound to be some loss to Labor. The only question is how much.

  41. guytaur
    BevanShields: Person in line to replace Malcolm Roberts is facing a bankruptcy application. Pauline Hanson’s sister is next smh.com.au/federal-politi…

    https://twitter.com/bevanshields/status/890727142786424834

    That is wrong.

    As Kevin or William pointed out last night, he isn’t a bankrupt and so he was illegible to stand.

    If he is declared bankrupt then his position would become a casual vacancy and the Party would be able to nominate a replacement.

  42. sprocket_ @ #25 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 8:00 am

    Scarramucci proves that he can in fact ‘dance the fandango’.

    In this amazing on the record spray, he says what he really thinks about Priebus and Bannon

    If he manages to take out Bannon while he’s crashing and burning, that’s a good thing.

    phoenixRED @ #34 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 8:19 am

    Republican Senators Lindsey Graham (SC), John McCain (AZ), Ron Johnson (WI), and Bill Cassidy (LA) held a joint press conference to announce that they would vote no on the skinny Obamacare repeal bill unless they got assurances from Paul Ryan that it would never become law.

    What does that last part even mean? They’re willing to vote ‘yes’ if the House Speaker lies to them and says that the House will kill it for them?

    citizen @ #52 Friday, July 28th, 2017 – 8:52 am

    In a memo to all military service chiefs, commanders and enlisted military leaders, General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said “there will be no modifications” to current policy for now, amid questions about Mr Trump’s announcement on Twitter that the US government will no longer “accept or allow” transgender people to serve in any capacity in the military.

    So at least the U.S. military still has some balls. Good.

  43. RevDaniel: “I’m not Steve Bannon. I’m not trying to suck my own cock”
    (Bannon declined to comment)

    I actually just read that in the @NewYorker.

    This is getting a lot of attention. Firing usual result for such behaviour in normal times from a public spokesman.

  44. Meanwhile questions surrounding Bernie Sanders continue.

    Congress almost unanimous in voting for Russian sanctions. Apart from Bernie Sanders who voted against. Something stinks in the state of Denmark

  45. Apparently Stephen Colbert is going to be executive producer of an animated Trump TV series. The shit show is becoming an actual show.

  50. guytaur
    Barney

    I missed that obviously. Thanks for letting me know.

    Not your fault, the journalist should have thought about it before he wrote the article. 🙂

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