BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

An improvement in the Coalition’s still weak position on the poll aggregate, and a possible first sign of the Greens paying for their recent turmoil.

A bumper crop of three new polls this week has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to revert to type after blowing out in Labor’s favour for a couple of weeks. The Coalition had a particularly strong result in the weekly Essential Research sample, which elicited a one-point movement on its fortnight rolling average. The Coalition has gained three on the seat projection – one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. The Greens have taken a fairly solid knock on the primary vote, which certainly seems intuitively reasonable. However, a two-point drop from YouGov has had something to do with that, and this may for all I know reflect methodological fine-tuning. Newspoll has furnished a new set of data for leadership ratings, which hasn’t yielded anything too dramatic. YouGov also had approval ratings for the two leaders, but I gather they won’t be making a habit of this, so it hasn’t been included.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,501 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 29 of 31
1 28 29 30 31
  1. Mal to Barnaby’s rescue?

    [Malcolm Turnbull has stepped in to defuse a damaging row over water use, by ordering an independent review to ensure all states are complying with the Murray Darling Basin Agreement.

    Just days after Water Resources Minister Barnaby Joyce played down allegations of water theft by New South Wales cotton farmers and claims the NSW bureaucracy was helping undermine the agreement, Mr Turnbull has ordered the Murray Darling Basin Authority to conduct an independent basin-wide review into compliance with state-based regulations governing water use.

    It will report to the Council of Australian Governments’ meeting in December.]

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/malcolm-turnbull-orders-national-review-of-water-compliance-20170730-gxloua#ixzz4oIO8y7Mu
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  2. jenauthor @ #1285 Sunday, July 30th, 2017 – 10:02 am

    Alias, the Truswt cost more than I expected (several k if I remember rightly) and now my accountant charges more as well.

    A trust structure in itself is not expensive. If you are using a corporate trustee and a standard trust document, you can get a company and trust deed done online nearly instantly for a little over $600. A standard company constitution and off the shelf trust deed are sufficient for the needs of most small business people and individuals.

    The relevant tax registrations for the corporate trustee and trust can be done online and would take someone conversant in the requirements about 15 minutes to complete the registrations.

    I don’t know what you paid several thousand for, but it was not for the setup of the trust. The whole exercise would have taken less than half an hour.

  3. booleanbach

    I thought it amusing (?) that the NBN ombudsman said that the problem was that users’ expectations were too high.

  4. Just days after Water Resources Minister Barnaby Joyce played down allegations of water theft by New South Wales cotton farmers and claims the NSW bureaucracy was helping undermine the agreement, Mr Turnbull has ordered the Murray Darling Basin Authority to conduct an independent basin-wide review into compliance with state-based regulations governing water use.

    Isn’t the problem that it can look like States are complying with the MDB Plan but they are dodgying up the meter readings?

  5. jenauthor @ #1294 Sunday, July 30th, 2017 – 10:08 am

    Trusts help in terms of paperwork and income smoothing for contractors who earn intermittent funds. But it does get rorted by some.

    As a CPA I can authoritatively say that the rorting of the tax system via inter vivos discretionary trusts (“family trusts”) is going on wholesale to engage in income splitting. I’m very surprised that the expected benefit to the taxpayer is only ~$1.5b a year, though Personal Services Income regime will have slowed this down a bit.

  6. grimace

    From what I’ve heard Hastie is working very, very hard to connect with voters in his electorate doing town halls and the like.

    The Liberals will try to emulate Labor. This will help them connect with their base…but unless they change their policies, it’s unlikely to draw in the persuadable-but-doubtful…

  7. Wow an Andrew Hastie town hall meeting would be a sight to behold. What does he do, stare participants into submission?

  8. C@tmomma

    The Authority appears to have been pretty useless up to now. How do we know that anything practical will come out of this review?

  9. Lizzie,
    There is only one person in Australia capable and unbuyable enough to conduct that Review. And that is Tony Windsor. He is free at the moment so I hear.

  10. I wish I’d spoken to you before set up our trust Grimace – I think our accountant has taken us for a bit of a ride …. same when we set up the bear trust for our SMSF property. Only consolation there is the increase in value of the property made up for the early ‘slug’

  11. Wow an Andrew Hastie town hall meeting would be a sight to behold. What does he do, stare participants into submission?

    I just hope the Defence Department Inquiry into War Crimes committed in Afghanistan catches up with him.

  12. Grimace,
    I’d love to know how much Small Business owners are paying their wives these days to ‘do the books’? It used to be a right old rort back in the day when I owned a small business.

  13. It’s interesting that Centrelink nor the Department of Human Services hasn’t done anything regarding my restoration of my DSP, they are such in a hurry to get people into massive debts on the weekend however.

  14. briefly @ #1404 Sunday, July 30th, 2017 – 3:04 pm

    grimace

    From what I’ve heard Hastie is working very, very hard to connect with voters in his electorate doing town halls and the like.

    The Liberals will try to emulate Labor. This will help them connect with their base…but unless they change their policies, it’s unlikely to draw in the persuadable-but-doubtful…

    I’ve been trying to persuade my Liberal voting brother in law to shift his vote at the next election. It’s all in good fun because he lives in a safe Labor seat.

  15. There is a protest meeting in Brisbane today (CH10 news) about the problems with the nbn.

    I’m sure I heard one bloke say wtte Labor’s system was a failure. If it wasn’t for Malcolm Turnbull we wouldn’t even have this much service.

  16. There is a protest meeting in Brisbane today (CH10 news) about the problems with the nbn.

    I’m sure I heard one bloke say wtte Labor’s system was a failure. If it wasn’t for Malcolm Turnbull we wouldn’t even have this much service.

    Sounds like a Liberal astroturf group.

  17. lizzie,
    Tony Windsor should run again at the next election!

    he has been given a gift horse to run with with the APVMA debacle.

  18. jenauthor @ #1408 Sunday, July 30th, 2017 – 3:13 pm

    I wish I’d spoken to you before set up our trust Grimace – I think our accountant has taken us for a bit of a ride …. same when we set up the bear trust for our SMSF property. Only consolation there is the increase in value of the property made up for the early ‘slug’

    Whenever you deal with a lawyer or accountant, you are entitled to ask for and receive a detailed breakdown of their fee. The breakdown will include a list of who worked on your account, what they did, how many hours they allocated, and a detail list of what expenses (such as printing) has been charged to your account.

    You should *always* ask for it. If you ask for it and get a “courtesy” call from the partner to discuss the matter before they send you the breakdown then generally they’ve pushed the limit on allocating time or expenses to your account and they’re calling to smooth it over and/or you’re about to get a discount on what they charged you, and they’ll provide one of the several standard excuses which are a proxy for “we’ve taken the piss on what we’ve charged you and I need to cover my arse so you don’t make a professional misconduct complaint against us”

    Don’t be scared to query or challenge any line item you’re not sure about.

    You’ll find the following period’s bill will almost always be cheaper too.

  19. confessions @ #1405 Sunday, July 30th, 2017 – 3:09 pm

    Wow an Andrew Hastie town hall meeting would be a sight to behold. What does he do, stare participants into submission?

    I’ve never been. A few times I’ve heard him talking he has talked sense about the concerns of ordinary people. After the last election, he had plenty to say about how “agile and innovative” wasn’t cutting through.

  20. C@tmomma @ #1410 Sunday, July 30th, 2017 – 3:16 pm

    Grimace,
    I’d love to know how much Small Business owners are paying their wives these days to ‘do the books’? It used to be a right old rort back in the day when I owned a small business.

    It’s an issue that the ATO is aware of, and anyone doing it needs to be careful. IMO the ATO has been lax on enforcement of the Personal Services Income regime and this is another area that Labor can instruct the Commissioner of Taxation to target, without the grief of changing the law.

  21. I can’t provide a direct link from Facebook to a Shorten video clip, this is the page it’s on:
    https://www.facebook.com/BillShorten/?hc_ref=ARR-Cz_QAo9HZfYvMnUJbGF7yCUD93Ojaa_eehH8g_m-EyfqxcX4PMoWEvs97ee8ZEY

    The title of the clip is:
    Right now you might be paying more tax than someone who makes 5 or 10 times more than you.
    That’s why today I’m announcing another piece in Labor’s fairer tax system, to stop discretionary trusts being used to minimise tax.

    The clip is a masterstroke and will resonate all the way to the next election. I’ve shared it on my Facebook timeline, and it’s well worth the time of everyone to watch it.

  22. Thanks, Grimace!

    Ever thought about running for parliament yourself? You’re exactly the sort of fair-minded Small Businessman Labor needs as candidates!

  23. Grimace:

    The times I’ve seen Hastie in the media he’s been a deer-in-the-headlights nincompoop with nothing of value to say.

    I’d be very surprised if his town hall appearances are any different, although perhaps the Libs stack them with favourable audiences so it eases the pressure on him performance-wise.

  24. C@tmomma @ #1423 Sunday, July 30th, 2017 – 3:46 pm

    Thanks, Grimace!

    Ever thought about running for parliament yourself? You’re exactly the sort of fair-minded Small Businessman Labor needs as candidates!

    Yes.

    Our branch has asked anyone who is interested to come forward for a discussion about what is requried, and I’m very tempted to have a discussion. There was a brief rundown of what is expected/required of the person and I very much doubt I could give that much.

    Financially, about 6 months ago I returned to the world of the income earning after 2 years and one month out of the mix due to a serious medical condition followed by difficulty getting my business off the ground (while working casually) and my family finances are reasonably depleted from that. Asking my wife to continue to support me while I take many months out of the workforce to campaign full time would put serious stress on my marriage.

    My wife and I have seriously discussed it and agreed it’s not a good time for us. She has accepted it will happen one day.

  25. Thank you Grimace for the facebook link to Bill Shorten’s speech at the NSW Conference today.

    Sadly I was unable to attend due to my son not being well enough yet to leave alone.

  26. lizzie

    The AFR article suggests that Barnaby got rolled in Cabinet. Sounds like bullshit to me.

    The fact the inquiry has no powers and won’t report for 6 mths tells the story.

    The govt had no choice in having an inquiry.

    A win for Barnaby.

    Who ever wrote the article is following Turnbull’s PR line.

  27. Grimace,
    My wife and I have seriously discussed it and agreed it’s not a good time for us. She has accepted it will happen one day.

    Good on both of you! Keep that flame burning bright in your heart! It is a good heart.

  28. C@tmomma @ #1426 Sunday, July 30th, 2017 – 3:57 pm

    Thank you Grimace for the facebook link to Bill Shorten’s speech at the NSW Conference today.

    Sadly I was unable to attend due to my son not being well enough yet to leave alone.

    I’m glad to hear your son is on the mend, I’ve got empathy for your position.

    I’m not a public practice accountant, the business I part own is in energy management and solar power purchase agreements. My work history is management accounting, then promoted into management.

    The airbrushed photo I linked to the other day was from my profile on the website of the company I own.

  29. C@tmomma @ #1429 Sunday, July 30th, 2017 – 3:59 pm

    Grimace,
    My wife and I have seriously discussed it and agreed it’s not a good time for us. She has accepted it will happen one day.

    Good on both of you! Keep that flame burning bright in your heart! It is a good heart.

    For the time being, I’ll concentrate on moving up the greasy pole to be a faceless man. Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to find the application process for such a position.

  30. Useless.

    Tony Burke‏Verified account
    @Tony_Burke

    Turnbull’s Murray Darling review cannot compel witnesses, cannot seize documents, cannot provide whistleblowers with protection. #auspol

  31. confessions @ #1424 Sunday, July 30th, 2017 – 3:55 pm

    Grimace:

    The times I’ve seen Hastie in the media he’s been a deer-in-the-headlights nincompoop with nothing of value to say.

    I’d be very surprised if his town hall appearances are any different, although perhaps the Libs stack them with favourable audiences so it eases the pressure on him performance-wise.

    It’s a relief to be corrected by your more direct knowledge of Hastie, thanks.

  32. Grimace,
    The era of the Faceless Man is over! Labor is upfront and transparent about who we are.

    Anyway, you can’t be ‘Faceless’, we can see your face every day on PB!

  33. briefly @ #1317 Sunday, July 30th, 2017 – 1:01 pm

    alias
    I like a good conspiracy theory with the best of them, but isn’t it just possible this is a legitimate police raid and the timing is a coincidence?

    The idea that the arrests were contrived to disrupt the broadcast of a speech by Bill Shorten is just a fantasy.

    And the usual crank is propagating them.

  34. Grimace,
    If your interested, the group I work for are building load control systems to provide firming and smooth ramping capacity to vre, as Finkel calls it. We’re still at a precommercial development stage, but looking for industry partners to test with, plus govt money could be available to support it.

    I’ll set up a dummy email if you are interested.

  35. I know I am talking to myself here but I am really happy with where Labor is going policy wise. I am behind the taxation proposal for trusts and very happy industrial relations reform is being looked at to empower workers, including jail time for wage theft.

    Also happy with push for a vote for republic. Monarchy means nothing to me and I find it ridicilous people are ok being “subject” of another person. Head of state should be Australian and be living in Australia. Anything else is an utter joke to me.

    Also happy with 4 year fixed terms. 3 year terms may have worked previously but in this 24/7 news cycle and social media age it is getting very hard to govern effectively and take risks. I think that will stabilise politics and this is good for the country.

  36. We can’t assume police raid was politically timed. Folks shouldn’t worry about this disrupting Labor’s messaging and benefiting the government.

  37. I’d just like to reiterate my offer of $100 to the favorite charity of anyone who can get STFU working again (or develop an alternative).

  38. GK

    [We can’t assume police raid was politically timed. Folks shouldn’t worry about this disrupting Labor’s messaging and benefiting the government.]

    Yep.

  39. I like a good conspiracy theory with the best of them, but isn’t it just possible this is a legitimate police raid and the timing is a coincidence?

    I can’t even see what the coincidence is.

  40. Only 7 minutes of terror on ABC news. They need to try harder.

    And a relatively fair report on Shorten’s speech by Greg Jennet.
    What is going on?

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 29 of 31
1 28 29 30 31