A bumper crop of three new polls this week has caused the BludgerTrack poll aggregate to revert to type after blowing out in Labor’s favour for a couple of weeks. The Coalition had a particularly strong result in the weekly Essential Research sample, which elicited a one-point movement on its fortnight rolling average. The Coalition has gained three on the seat projection – one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia. The Greens have taken a fairly solid knock on the primary vote, which certainly seems intuitively reasonable. However, a two-point drop from YouGov has had something to do with that, and this may for all I know reflect methodological fine-tuning. Newspoll has furnished a new set of data for leadership ratings, which hasn’t yielded anything too dramatic. YouGov also had approval ratings for the two leaders, but I gather they won’t be making a habit of this, so it hasn’t been included.
adrian
Only 7 minutes of terror on ABC news. They need to try harder.
And a relatively fair report on Shorten’s speech by Greg Jennet.
What is going on?
I dunno, but the LNP will have an explanation that proves the existence of worldwide Green-Left subterfuge and mind-control techniques, as applied in an ABC newsroom and foretold by someone in Oklahoma in 1882.
Seasprite
Thanks. It had to be a Lib!. 🙂
I can’t see any reference in the online MSM to the ALP NSW conference today apart from Shorten’s announcement.
What has happened to the mandatory blood and guts on the floor at ALP conferences that the MSM always talks about?
booleanbach @ #1379 Sunday, July 30th, 2017 – 3:22 pm
As daft as P1.
The suggestion was that the police raids and subsequent terror plot announcement had been deliberately timed for today to somehow suck oxygen away from Bill Shorten’s family trust speech. I was suggesting the two events – Shorten’s speech and the police raids – had coincided, literally, nothing more.
Actually I was wrong. Here’s a better riff of the inequality debate happening here, complete with rich assholes objecting to Obama’s tax increases by equating it to what happened to the jews in nazi Germany.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcKMd49wDRk
Terror has been on high rotation all day via the ABC. Even BBC reports have been played almost endlessly. And yes, it’s a conspiracy. Listening in one might guess Sydney is almost totally under the control of Islamist cells and other than for brave Sir Mal and his cohorts I would sleep in fear.
BTW, what ever came of that Australian women gunned down in Minneapolis? Mal was so shocked by that. Not an Islamist so not worthy of any follow up I guess.
Meanwhile it looks as though the LNP will pay lip service to 4 Corners spill on illegaly pumping our national treasure dry. Very big of them, I fell certain it will go nowhere.
Alias:
Laura Tingle reminded us today that the Abbott govt used to troll the AFP and national security agencies for relevant events so it could schedule national security media appearances accordingly. That’s a slippery slope in terms of winning public credibility with these things, and perhaps that’s what we’re seeing with today’s announcement.
Confessions.. The reports suggest the police have removed the makings of a bomb from one of the raided houses in south-western Sydney. They made these raids today. Are you seriously suggesting the police were coopted to sit on this information, and to hold off the raids, until today, so as to crowd out Shorten’s speech? I’m aware that political spin-meisters get up to some pretty dark stuff but that really is straining credulity.
Alias:
Nope not suggesting anything like that. Just pointing out there’s a history when it comes to this govt. Make of that what you will.
alias
Ah “the makings of a bomb” the problem with that definition is that it could be almost anything. You would be amazed at some of the stuff you can concoct with ordinary household chemicals. Or what they could deem as “the makings of a bomb” , electrical components etc etc.
confessions
C@t:
I agree Windsor should absolutely run again.
Didn’t work last time. The problem is, as I stated earlier today, that the sheep vote around here.
Didn’t I tell youse the NBN protest was an LNP astroturf operation? The LNP are afraid, very afraid, of the NBN blowback that is building a head of steam in the community. So they are doing what they do oh so well, they are confecting outrage against the innocent party. The Labor Party.
Luke Howarth is an unimaginative LNP shill. He should shave off his soul patch. Anyone in the LNP in Queensland checks their soul at the door.
Didn’t work last time. The problem is, as I stated earlier today, that the sheep vote around here.
Same ones who voted for Tony Windsor all those years?
Libertarian Unionist @ #1443 Sunday, July 30th, 2017 – 4:52 pm
I’d be great to have a look thanks, my email is s dot applin at element47 dot com dot au
https://www.facebook.com/BillShorten/videos/1409281322441758/
Yep that’s the one. Labor needs to put that on high rotation all the way to the next election.
Labor desperately needs the services of a professional video team. That is a very amateurish effort on the part of the people behind the camera and later editing.
Don:
Well at one point Windsor won the seat. Surely it isn’t outside the bounds of reality that it could happen again.
Don,
Slick videos are so Liberal Party! 😉
grimace
So “Silver” then eh ? 😆
LU,
I’m kinda busy with rail stuff at the moment, but I’m curious about what you’re doing.
**That is a very amateurish effort on the part of the people behind the camera**
Still not convinced of the style in front of camera. But he is ahead on netsat so what would i know – and he doesnt need to sell me the progressive message.
confessions
Don:
Well at one point Windsor won the seat. Surely it isn’t outside the bounds of reality that it could happen again.
I would have hoped so, but it did not happen in 2016.
Ian Sinclair, a very strong candidate, held the seat of New England from 1963 to 1998.
Stuart St. Clair was the replacement Nationals candidate, a weak politician, not much liked.
Tony Windsor took the seat from St. Clair in 2001 and held it until 2013, when he retired.
Barnaby Joyce, who by that time was leader of the Nationals, took over in 2013.
Tony Windsor came back as a candidate after retirement, and unsuccessfully tried to regain the seat in 2016.
I think he is getting too long in the tooth to be bothered trying again, but you never know. I live in hope.
C@tmomma
C@tmomma
Don,
Slick videos are so Liberal Party!
Maybe so, but if something is worth doing, it is worth doing well. That was an abysmal effort.
SK: **That is a very amateurish effort on the part of the people behind the camera**
Still not convinced of the style in front of camera. But he is ahead on netsat so what would i know – and he doesnt need to sell me the progressive message.
It’s not you that the message needs to get to.
**It’s not you that the message needs to get to.**
That’s what worries me. I would love for someone to drill down into the netsat stats. Do they only do that internally?
Are the polls show a warming to left politics or a protest vote away from status quo?
Should I have another nip of whiskey or go to a milky chai?
So many questions.
Don – I agree.
The message is good but it looks like a ‘made in the basement’ effort.
Labor surely has people who could tidy this up and make it a little punchier.
* I am very disappointed in the US. Our foolish past leaders have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars a year in trade, yet……they do NOTHING for us with Israel and Saudi Arabia, just talk. We will no longer allow this to continue. The US could easily solve this Middle East problem! *
(Donald Trumps most recent tweet with some minor modifications)
And why do I hate Joe Root? He seems a nice enough chap, but I feel he would be nicer treading water in my septic tank than captaining England.
Don:
I live in hope too when it comes to Windsor. After all he was probably the best local member you’ve had in recent years and therefore deserves another go. I mean seriously, Barnaby who is barely literate and comes with the baggage of a nuff nuff party behind him? Or someone who has the goods and can demonstrate a record of achievement for the electorate in the past?
CTar1
Don – I agree.
The message is good but it looks like a ‘made in the basement’ effort.
Labor surely has people who could tidy this up and make it a little punchier.
Number one, you don’t do it in somebody’s back garden.
Number two, it is scripted and practised in a studio until it can be taken in one bite, with a teleprompter if necessary.
Number three, it has to be done by professionals, not by your uncle who has a video camera and tripod.
Test
Re Shorten video style/quality. Perhaps they are targeting a specific ‘demographic’ with the cinematic style ? Remember when the jerky disjointed Blair Witch style was all the go ? I thought the style was crap but it was obviously a hit with the targeted audience.
Look, take it from someone who has been there, there is no easy way to film in the Sydney Town Hall at an ALP Conference. It is chock-a-block with people who all want to have an uninterrupted view of the Leader giving his speech. There are only so many places you can put the camera.
Also, the better quality videos are made in a more controlled environment.
don @ #1478 Sunday, July 30th, 2017 – 8:51 pm
As an uncle with a video camera and a tripod, I protest that slur! 😀
C@tmomma @ #1481 Sunday, July 30th, 2017 – 9:19 pm
Some halls and auditoriums are equipped with video cameras and microphones to capture what is happening on stage. Are you sure Sydney Town Hall is not so equipped?
Not sure it would meet Don’s high standards though.
test, test, test
SK
Trump seems obsessed with the task of using twitter to reach the entire population of the planet making sure they appreciate what a complete idiot he is.
Some halls and auditoriums are equipped with video cameras and microphones to capture what is happening on stage. Are you sure Sydney Town Hall is not so equipped?
Not that I’ve seen when I’ve been there. The Sound mixing has a dedicated area but the cameras are all hand held, shoulder-mounted or there is one small one on a tripod directly in the centre of the hall. Nothing of a permanent nature that I have seen.
C@tmomma @ #1486 Sunday, July 30th, 2017 – 9:53 pm
The ones I have seen are mounted on walls and ceiling. Multiple cameras that are fixed in where they point so I guess they pick whichever one gives the best view of the speaker at the time.
Sound would be picked up from whatever sound system the place has.
With regard to the unsolicited emails – hotmail has decided that they are “junk” and they don’t even make it to my inbox. At the end of the day I go to the hotmail website and delete them all in one go.
It would seem that this is not the case for all email accounts, but it may be possible to manually have your email server identify the crikey emails as “Junk” or “Spam”, so that they do not get forwarded to your computer.
Ronzy @ #1490 Sunday, July 30th, 2017 – 10:29 pm
You made me check. I had over 450 junk emails from Crikey. (480 in total, but not all were from Crikey. I didn’t bother counting.) At least for me, emails from Crikey look like they might now be blacklisted. What a waste.
OK. This is unfathomable. I had been having no real issues with the new PB layout plus C+, until I “Quoted” Ronzy, which I’m pretty sure is a C+ feature. I swear there were more comments posted after Ronzy’s #1490 but after posting my comment all I see is #1491, which is mine. Where did all the other comment go? [I should add that I have tried changing options in C+ and even disabling C+ altogether. And closing and restarting a new Chrome browser after each change. No joy.] It makes it pointless to comment if you then lose everything else.
This comment is posted w/o C+. Fingers crossed, and apologies.
Has everyone gone to bed early, even WA?
[US Vice President Mike Pence is preparing for Donald Trump’s impeachment, a congresswoman from their rival Democrat Party has claimed.
“Mike Pence is somewhere planning an inauguration”, Maxine Waters wrote on Twitter.
“Priebus and Spicer will lead the transition” she added, referring to the two latest members of Trump’s White House to resign.]
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/mike-pence-vice-president-presidential-inauguration-maxine-waters-a7867216.html
Essential coming?.
Brexit:
[Team Corbyn needs to start with the fact that the majority of Labour supporters, Labour members and Labour voters are a long way from being Euro-hating Brexiteers. In fact, the reverse is true. It might also like to consider how it is increasingly clear that the majority of the country favours membership of the Single Market, even if it would rather we had a more arm’s length relationship with the EU proper. The immigration/free movement issue that raises? It might sort itself out given the direction Europe is moving in. ]
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jeremy-corbyn-labour-party-brexit-negotiations-single-market-flip-flop-a7866231.html
Mañana.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jul/30/al-gore-interview-our-crumbling-planet-the-rich-have-subverted-all-reason-al-gore
“In order to fix the climate crisis, we need to first fix the government crisis,” he says. “Big money has so much influence now.” And he says a phrase that is as dramatic as it is multilayered: “Our democracy has been hacked.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/29/naacp-silent-parade-100th-anniversary-march-new-york-city
Black lives mattered in 1917. The matter now.
New thread.